Kozuka can clearly compete with Chan in the PCS department but it's going to be really difficult for him to ever match or even surpass him in any category of the PCS (scorewise).
We have seen him skate a technically superior LP at the last Worlds (TES wise, of course), yet his PCS trailed Chan's by almost 10 points.
What he needs to do, is to work on his reputation. Two things are of paramount importance if he ever wants to catch up on Chan:
1. He needs to be really really consistent on his performances for about 1 or 2 years. Whilst being absolutely clean, he needs his TES to be higher than Chan's consistently and he might need to include more difficult content. That's going to be difficult with his success rate on quads alone. And Chan's content is so difficult already that it can't realistically be bettered without including 3 quads or something like that.
2. He needs to be the clear Japanese number one skater. It really hurts internationally, if you are from a country with a very strong competition. The judges have perceived Kozuka for some time now as Japanese number 2 or 3. He may have surpassed Oda by now, but with Takahashi and up and coming Hanyu, it's very difficult to be convincingly dominant.
I agree with you on a lot accounts. I can't deny, in fact believe, that reputation is at work in PCS.
What Chan has done to earn his good reputation is to continuously improving his TES. On top of his extraordinary SS and TR, I don't see him lay back and rest on PE, IN, and CH he've gotten. He has progressed on them in an astonishingly fast way. The improvements were so dramatic like we've seen last year. From the very first debute of his quad in both SP and LP in the first GP event to becoming the most consistant quad jumper in the world with 3 quads in every competition in just one season. Yet kept his superior SS, TR, and perfected PE, IN, and CH at Canadian Nationals.
I'd think that, generally speaking, Chan's good reputation is earned by him through his hardwork and his extraordinary progress speed rather than bestowed on him undeservingly.
Yet we did not see him resting. He continued to improve on both presentation and technics this year. His this year's new program has a vast improvement on maturity and inner feelings. It is almost sexily attractive I'd say.
The music helped on this account too. I don't see how he could not get a huge PCS to reward it.
As of Kozuka's strategy, I think he is trying to go on the same route as Chan has done last year. He ambitiously put quad in both SP and LP in the first GP event. Unsuccessfully maybe, he might succeed in later. We'll wait and see.
On Kozuka's PCS progress this year, I think there are several barriers to him. Like so many of you have already pointed out, he is not a clear Japanese No.1. He might never be a clear Japanese No.1 even though he might sometimes be the No.1. He chose difficult music which would not help him on presentations. Handsome music for sure, but it's a bit beyond figure skating and CoP. If we ever had a base value for the music selection, he might get a bit higher base value on difficulties and get a headstart. But we don't have. On top of these, Kozuka's own presentation skill is yet to improve a lot more.
With what both Chan and Kozuka have gotten this year, I'm with
ImaginaryPogue, Kozuka won't catch up Chan this year on PCS.
As to TES, he might. Chan has three quads SP+LP. Kozuka has two quads SP+LP. Chan's seccessful rate on quad is about 90% while Kozuka's is about 20-30%. Chan's seccessful rate on 3A probably has to switch around with Kozuka. If Kozuka ever caught Chan mess up his own program technically, Kozuka could win by TES if his PCS is not too far behind at the sametime.
