No Patrick would not have won under 6.0. And you know why,. Because under 6.0 skaters would be docked .5 for every element that they had a major error on in TES. So Chan with not just 1 but 3 major errors on required elements, woud have had a mandatory deduction of 1.5 on his Technical marks. It would be nearly impossible for him to make it up in the Artistic marks. Chan would have been so far behind that being first in the long wouldn't have mattered. And that was people's main issue. In fact that was one of people's main issues-Chan's scores in the short.
dorispulaski said:
Chan's SC short program of last year with 3 major errors, I presume? That always seems to come up in Chan discussions, but isn't relative to SC this year. And yes, in the SP, there were mandatory .5 deductions in the technical score for missing a required element. And yes, there were a list of SP required elements. I'm not sure whether it was .5 for falling on the step sequence though, or rather not entirely sure if falling part way through a step would count as totally missing the element.
So if Chan last year were graded in 6.0 in the SP, there would have been 1.5 removed from his technical score. (Leaving a max of 4.5 on it) if he were scored correctly (never a sure thing) Even if he got a lower deduction for the step, we're talking 4.8, say, on the technical. And I never recall the judges having the guts to give a 6.0 to a program with 2 falls in the SP-maybe 5.5 there. So overall, 10.3 max. In other words, any skater able to get 5.2/5.2 would have beaten him in the sp, putting him down in maybe 6th place. Even winning the long, he could not then have won gold.
First of all, it would have been helpful that you actually get the deduction correct in the Required Elements as opposed to making up numbers as you go to support any conclusion you may have. Falls in jumps at SP under Required Elements carries deduction of 0.4 each,
not 0.5 Fall in a step sequence carries a deduction of 0.3. Because one of his falls were on a 4T attempt, it stands to reason his base mark in RE if clean would have been either 5.9 or 6.0 because he would have a Quad, Triple Axel and Tripe-Triple.
Secondly, it would have been also very helpful if you didn't make a calculation error in the ordinal ranking. Using the actual results from the event:
http://www.isuresults.com/results/gpcan2010/CAT001RS.HTM
Chan didn't even need to finish 4th in the SP. He could be 5th in the SP and still win overall. If so, there would be a three way tie in the ordinal ranking of 3.5, between Chan, Rippon and Oda. But given the tie breaker is based on Free Skating Ranking, Chan would be 1st, Rippon would be 2nd and Oda, 3rd.
But for the sake of argument, let's examine and see if Chan could possibly finish 4th in the SP as he did under CoP. With the base mark derived above, that means after the correct amount of deduction, his Required Element score should range approximately 4.7-4.9 whereas the Presentation score would likely be 5.8-5.9. If it were up to me, I'll go 4.8/5.8 for a total
10.6
The skater who finished 5th in the SP at SC 2010 was Alban Preaubert who had an error in his Triple Axel and whose solo jump was a Triple Loop (vs. Quad Toe) and mediocre footwork sequence (level 2) and passable spin. If he were clean, he'd probably score about 5.4-5.5 at most for RE but with error on the 3A, the psychological difference between a clean vs. not clean program could disproportionally lowered his first mark, one of the downfalls of 6.0 system. It stands to reason, for doing a Triple that is easier than anyone's at the competition and yet not skating clean, his Required Elements score would probably be 5.2 +/- 0.1 so ranging from 5.1-5.3 Given that judges chose to award him lower 2nd marks vs. the first mark, it stands to reason his Presentation score would be at a slightly lower range as well, about 5.0-5.2. Presentation score of 5.1 for someone whose last appearance at Worlds was 2007 and finished 11th seems quite realistic. Plus, he was fighting to land all his 3 jumps. The mid-point score for Preaubert could be around 5.2/5.1 for a total of
10.3
Conclusion: We will never know for sure though when you applied the correct deduction, it was quite possible that the scores would be around (4.8/5.8) 10.6 vs. 10.3 (5.2/5.1), giving Chan a 0.3 cushion to stay ahead of Preaubert for 4th in the SP. Keep in mind, if a judge wanted to be really generous with Chan, he/she could go 4.9/5.9 and still easily justified the decision, give Chan a cushion of 0.5 instead. In any event, as stated previously, even if he didn't Preaubert and finished 5th in the SP, the end result would be the same for winning the FS.
Let's cover the guy who finished 6th in the SP just in case someone will later attempt to whine about that ranking no matter how meritless that may be: 3A, 3Lz+
2T with an error, 3F and the combination spin completely messed up with a deduction of 0.3. VS. Chan, no Quad, no Triple-Triple, not clean, bombed a combo spin - forget it. There is not even a need to put an estimate on the score range, it ain't happening.
dorispulaski said:
So overall, 10.3 max. In other words, any skater able to get 5.2/5.2 would have beaten him in the sp, putting him down in maybe 6th place. Even winning the long, he could not then have won gold.
Correcting for your errors in applying the wrong amount of deduction, even using your estimate it would suggest the Preaubert and Chan would be about tied, with the call going either way. I can see that happening, then again, I can also see a case for 4th place. Either placement is plausible to me. But the 6th place finish in the SP is not plausible and would have been helpful if you actually reviewed the relevant protocol to know the 6th place finish messed up quite a bit and didn't have a Triple-Triple, therefore, can't possibly finish 5th. Necessarily, you conclusion was most likely incorrect.