Can Takahashi Close The Gap On Patrick Chan?

[Violet Bliss]

I quoted Abbott's GPF LP BV because it was his season's highest, less than a point higher than his NAT's when he was clean. He has not been clean internationally, falling 7 times in 4 competitions. His maxed LP BV would be almost 80 and his maxed Total BV would still be about 10 points behind Chan's. A clean and well executed performance will put him on the podium but Chan has to beat himself with 2 very faulty skates for a perfect Abbott to win.

It does not add up on paper.

 

[Boeing787]

Takahashi can topple Chan, warns Japan skating chief
http://www.google.com/hostednews/af...ocId=CNG.0b598339b1bfb6535cee2f2ba8cf2c44.201

 

[romanoff81]

Takahashi is so inconsistent on quads that i just don`t see it if Chan nails his three quads game over for everybody else.

 

[emma]

I quoted Abbott's GPF LP BV because it was his season's highest, less than a point higher than his NAT's when he was clean. He has not been clean internationally, falling 7 times in 4 competitions. His maxed LP BV would be almost 80 and his maxed Total BV would still be about 10 points behind Chan's. A clean and well executed performance will put him on the podium but Chan has to beat himself with 2 very faulty skates for a perfect Abbott to win.

It does not add up on paper.

I think Abbot doubled a jump and didn't max out his combos at nationals.....so for me, the 'on paper' BV is potential planned BV and Abbot, Taka, and a few others have planned BV that can compete with Chan's (not saying win here, saying compete, put pressure, come close, but those GOEs and then PCs enter in and I'm not considering that here)....however, plan and executing the plan are two different things, and Chan is far ahead of the pack in his ability to execute his plan and execute it well. I find it exciting, though, that many are "in the hunt", so to speak, and would be deliriously happy if, say, the top 6 men could deliver their best at worlds as that would be one heck of an exciting comp!

 

[enlight78]

Futher more Abbott is also doing a quad in the short-

 

[Violet Bliss]

Abbott's highest LP BV executed is 73.81 and his optimal LP BV would be about 79.5 vs 83.75 executed by Chan. Abbott's highest executed SP BV is 36.20 and Chan's is 42. Thus Abbott's optimal Total BV would be about 115.70 vs Chan's 125.75 executed BV.

Futher more Abbott is also doing a quad in the short-

He has not.

The major difference in their (on paper) BV is a matter of one quad vs three.

Takahashi, OTOH, has the highest SP BV of 41 (NAT) and highest LP BV of 78.79 (GPF) giving him a total of 119.79 best combination BV (2 credited quads). Of the three, only Chan has had a consistently high Total BV. SP BVs are much more consistent than LP's, with both Abbott's and Takahahshi's around 36 and Chan's over 40.

 

[silverlake22]

Futher more Abbott is also doing a quad in the short-

Seriously? I do not think that's a good idea. Try it in the FS, but no, focus on a clean SP for Worlds, he will score well for a clean short with a 3-3, his quad is not consistent enough to be trying it in the SP IMO, especially considering it's Worlds and Jeremy is inconsistent with his jumps to begin with.

 

[Violet Bliss]

The only time Jeremy didn't fall in his LP was at the Nationals. He had had a consistent SP of around 36 BV without a quad nor any fall until he attempted a quad in it at the Challenge Cup. He ended up with 2 falls in the SP and messed up almost all his jumps in the LP. I think the message from the experiment is quite clear.

 

[centerpt1]

I believe Jeremy said (in the pre-worlds teleconference) that he was training the SP both ways-with quad and without, and that the decision would be made in Nice which way to go.

I hope Jeremy makes top 5. With the depth in men's skating, that would be an accomplishment. I don't see him contending for the gold this year.

His best shot for a medal was in 2010.

Takahashi, on the other hand, is a contender.

 

[Violet Bliss]

Based on their BV and season long results, I would say Takahashi and Abbott are medal contenders next to Chan. They are quite certain to medal if they actually compete for the Silver without risking a quad in the SP, unless Takahashi gets as inspired as he did at his NAT. However, he fell 3 times in his following LP and Worlds will not be as forgiving as NAT so it may still be best to leave that SP quad out. But then again, he may go for Gold or nothing, who knows. Jeremy needs to steady his nerves and focus to limit his fall to one, with full rotations.

I love the high PCS guys like Chan, Takahashi and Abbott and they have fallen the most this season. Yet these falls are situational and avoidable at Worlds so my bets would be on them to be on the podium, if only Jeremy would, well,...... (see above). Basically the high PCS guys with big jumps win. The big jumps guys don't have the PCS to win,although among them Fernandez seems to be able to receive pretty high PCS so he is dangerous if one of the top three falters. Hanyu is dangerous with his (inconsistent) high TES but his PCS is not threatening enough, ditto Gachinski. Kozuka is a real dark horse because he is very low profile this year with few competitions. He is probably dragged down by his programs and his PCS is unreasonably low, IMO. However, he is capable of pulling another 2011 Kozuka with a brilliant skate or two and high enough PCS to win himself another Worlds medal.

I stated before, only Chan can beat Chan and he has proven himself to prevail through different difficulties this season to be undefeated.

 

[silverlake22]

Takahashi yes, but I'd say Abbott is a medal contender BEHIND Chan, Takahashi, Fernandez, Hanyu, and Kozuka. Fernandez and Hanyu because they have quads in SP and FS (Javi has 2 in FS), Takahashi because his PCS are even higher than Abbott's and seems a little more consistent with his jumps, and Kozuka because he has his World silver medal from last season to back him up. I would add Brezina to this group because he has 2 quads, but I'm unsure if he will be going for 4s in the SP and both in the FS, or just 3-3 in the SP and one quad (4s) in FS, his layout is always changing it seems, and also his PCS aren't as good as Abbott, he has also been inconsistent with jumps this season, and his scores haven't been stellar yet. But, he does always seem to do well at Worlds so who knows. Jeremy has a shot at a medal but it's a long shot IMO. Top 5 is more feasible but he'll have to skate well to even manage that.

 

[ImaginaryPogue]

The PCS gap between Takahashi and Abbott is surprisingly narrow, actually. A clean Abbott will beat a flawed Takahashi in PCS (see the GPF sp) - and even a flawed Abbott is being scored within a couple points now. Last season, at NHK, Takahashi had a ten point lead on Abbott re: PCS (both short and long programs combined). This year, that's dropped to one point (GPF). That said, Abbot's most recent skate does not fill one with confidence.

 

[evangeline]

Takahashi yes, but I'd say Abbott is a medal contender BEHIND Chan, Takahashi, Fernandez, Hanyu, and Kozuka. Fernandez and Hanyu because they have quads in SP and FS (Javi has 2 in FS), Takahashi because his PCS are even higher than Abbott's and seems a little more consistent with his jumps, and Kozuka because he has his World silver medal from last season to back him up. I would add Brezina to this group because he has 2 quads, but I'm unsure if he will be going for 4s in the SP and both in the FS, or just 3-3 in the SP and one quad (4s) in FS, his layout is always changing it seems, and also his PCS aren't as good as Abbott, he has also been inconsistent with jumps this season, and his scores haven't been stellar yet. But, he does always seem to do well at Worlds so who knows. Jeremy has a shot at a medal but it's a long shot IMO. Top 5 is more feasible but he'll have to skate well to even manage that.

Very well said. Even if Jeremy skates well (and predicting whether he skates well is always a crapshoot), the sheer depth of the men's field makes a medal far from a guarantee despite Jeremy's talents as a skater. However, as a medal contender, I would say Jeremy is behind Chan and Takahashi, but in the Fernandez-Hanyu-Kozuka mix as Jeremy's strong PCS gives him a cushion despite his lesser jumping arsenal. Note that Jeremy beat Fernandez and Hanyu in PCS at the GPF in both the SP and LP despite considerably skating worse than both in the LP, and Kozuka's international PCS this year are certainly nothing to shout about.

 

[skateluvr]

I think you can expect, if all skate well, the japanese men to take 3 out of the top six spots as very best possible results. It would be a huge upset if any Japanese man took gold. If Takahashi and Hanyu skate perfectly clean, I think they could take silver and bronze. This would be amazing. Somehow I think Takahashi will be silver or bronze, and Hanyu will if he skates lights out finish no lower than fifth, with a bronze medal possible.

I think Hanyu might get held down this because he is new and there will be several possible sentimentally judged skaters - he has time - he is Japan's future, not present. But he is capable of deserving a silver or bronze. Will he get it. I think not. I don't personally enjoy Kozuka's skating but technically he is a strong skater, but he has no style, flair, history like Dai. I think he is dull so far. He needs fire like Hanyu or great style like Dai to be Japan's number 1. I think by next season, Hanyu will pass both Dai with great effort and luck and Kozuka (much more easily) if he is not injured, has strong programs and continues to improve his artistry. I think Japanese federation will assess his medal hopes for Sochi and will promote him or hold him down in Japan all depending on how Dai is skating, competing and most importantly scoring. If Japan sees strong international results for Hanyu on GPF they will invest in him heavily. Sad to say Dai would need quads, less flamboyant programs, and an injured Chan to catch up and surpass Chan. Chan has momentum like Yuna though is not as good as Yuna was with consistency, and everyone knew yuna would win despite 3 triple axels from Mao.

I have no idea the machinations or politics of Japanese federation - this is just my look at how I see things playing out regarding the top three Japanese men. There might be another shooting star out of Japan before Sochi to make things even harder but anyone who thinks Chan will lose his title this year to any skater is not looking at his results, the trends, the clear favor he has at every international competition. I think other skaters besides Dai could out jump Pat (Javier) and put two better skated programs at WC, but Daisuke is the only skater they might shower favor on if Chan skates poorly, and Dai is clean with 2 quads. Is that likely? No.

Reading the math threads, it appears to be Chan repeating unless he skates like Jeremy did at CC. I think Chan improves through the season usually and his last two outings have been very good-he has momentum, favor and a mistake cushion due to his so called superior skating skills. Maybe a bad skate by Chan and a three quad skate by Javi and some European judging help could cause a huge upset. I don't believe Dai can take back his title-not this year.

I think with al the stars aligning and lots of men on ice, Jeremy could take bronze, but it is not looking great for him I agree with whoever said Jeremy looks like he'd be lucky to do a top 5 finish this year. Mathman has done all the math in many threads and we all know it's Chan, playing out the possibilities many times with any other skater. Daisuke is to Chan, as Mao was to Yuna.

Placements 2-10 should make the mens at Nice very interesting. I would love an upset, but CoP math and the last year of comp results say Ka Ching, Ka Chan. I just hope I have a puter to watch the action! May the skate gods just give us good skating and not a splatfest. As a general fan, that is all I ever ask for now in any competition. We non-judges/non fed politicos can just hope for good ice, good luck and good health for all the skaters in Nice. Not much longer to wait.

 

[silverlake22]

Very well said. Even if Jeremy skates well (and predicting whether he skates well is always a crapshoot), the sheer depth of the men's field makes a medal far from a guarantee despite Jeremy's talents as a skater. However, as a medal contender, I would say Jeremy is behind Chan and Takahashi, but in the Fernandez-Hanyu-Kozuka mix as Jeremy's strong PCS gives him a cushion despite his lesser jumping arsenal. Note that Jeremy beat Fernandez and Hanyu in PCS at the GPF in both the SP and LP despite considerably skating worse than both in the LP, and Kozuka's international PCS this year are certainly nothing to shout about.

This is true, but Fernandez and Hanyu have been getting quite good PCS all season, only a bit below Abbott, and technically they have been a lot stronger, which is why I put those two ahead. I would put Jeremy in the group consisting of Brezina, Gatchinski, Joubert, Verner, and Amodio - outside shot at medaling, but probably not very likely. He has a PCS advantage over all these guys and none of them are likely to fill their programs with multiple quads (though except for Amodio they all have quads that are more consistent than Jeremy's), but with a good skate any one of them could sneak onto the podium should a few from the Chan, Javi, Japanese men group falter.

 

[evangeline]

This is true, but Fernandez and Hanyu have been getting quite good PCS all season, only a bit below Abbott, and technically they have been a lot stronger, which is why I put those two ahead. I would put Jeremy in the group consisting of Brezina, Gatchinski, Joubert, Verner, and Amodio - outside shot at medaling, but probably not very likely. He has a PCS advantage over all these guys and none of them are likely to fill their programs with multiple quads (though except for Amodio they all have quads that are more consistent than Jeremy's), but with a good skate any one of them could sneak onto the podium should a few from the Chan, Javi, Japanese men group falter.

I see your point, and I do admit that my reluctance to group Abbott with the Brezina-Gatchinski-Amodio-etc bunch at least partially stems from the fact that I view Abbott's finesse, programs and general blade-to-ice skills as significantly superior to the skaters listed in that bunch.

 

[OS]

Abbott certainly is way above the group of Brzina - Gachinski- Amodio. Abbott is the Dai of the USA, and his FS program this year is just superb and profoundly moving. Easily among the best there is, and Jeremy deserve extra credit for choreographing this beautiful FS himself along with his coach and to express what he considers as great skating. He owned this program like no one can, effortless, stirring, quietly moving, refined and sophisticated.

A clean Takahashi based on his Japanese National standard certainly deserve to topple Emperor Chan from his cushioned seats prone to shock absorbing multiple falls. Though I suspect fairy tales arn't usually made at world championships. I'd be happy if the gap is much closer than before if that is the case.

Hanyu and Abbott are my prediction for 3rd place and I would very chuffed if either of them manage this. In fact I don't really care about the ranking at this point but hope all the mens do their best. The :disapp: can come in later. This year's mens is super exciting, there's so much talent and upgraded content from years before, it could go either way. It is how sport spectating should be about and make watching the world champion worth while.

(post edited, i mean of course Japanese National)

 

[Violet Bliss]

Abbott certainly is way above the group of Brzina - Gachinski- Amodio. Abbott is the Dai of the USA, and his FS program this year is just superb and profoundly moving. Easily among the best there is, and Jeremy deserve extra credit for choreographing this beautiful FS himself along with his coach and to express what he considers as great skating. He owned this program like no one can, effortless, stirring, quietly moving, refined and sophisticated.

Jeremy deserves, is overdue, to be on the Worlds podium, if he is able to do his best a la 2010 US Nationals.

A clean Takahashi based on his Japanese Open standard certainly deserve to topple Emperor Chan from his cushioned seats prone to shock absorbing multiple falls. Though I suspect fairy tales arn't usually made at world championships. I'd be happy if the gap is much closer than before if that is the case.

Takahashi did poorly at Japan Open. Maybe you mean Japanese Nationals. No he will not win with that standard, nailing the SP with a 4/3 and then falling 3 times in the Free. Even combining his best SP from the NAT and best LP from the GPF will not guarantee a win unless Chan brings at least one of his worst performances, which have been left behind from early season. Takahashi has to duplicate his season best SP and rise above his season's best LP. He has to take big risk to win whereas a more conservative approach would almost assure him of a medal.

BTW, Takahashi has fallen more than Patrick in both recent seasons.

Chan is with me in considering Takahashi and Abbott his biggest rivals this year.

Patrick Chan talks about figure skating worlds

 

[silverlake22]

I see your point, and I do admit that my reluctance to group Abbott with the Brezina-Gatchinski-Amodio-etc bunch at least partially stems from the fact that I view Abbott's finesse, programs and general blade-to-ice skills as significantly superior to the skaters listed in that bunch.

A lot of people feel this way, but the international judges maybe don't as much. At Euros Flo and Michal both got PCS over 80 for the FS and even Tomas with that messy performance got 78+, as did Babou, skating in the penultimate group, and Artur. I like Jeremy, but the international judges have yet to hand him marks that suggest he's significantly "better" than the men in this group. It's the same thing with Adam, people talk about how he's so superior to Ross or whatnot, and Nationally he does get better marks, but internationally the judges are always giving him virtually the same PCS marks as Miner so it's clear they don't see Adam as being any better. Jeremy has gotten great PCS marks this season, even for not so great performances, but his TES is holding him back. I don't think it would be wise for him to try the 4t in the SP, and even just trying one quad on its own in the FS seems to mess with his head, so really, that is why I put him in this group rather than the group with Javi, Hanyu, and Kozuka - because they are very strong skaters on the PCS side and have mastered how to do the quads in their programs without it messing up the rest of the performance should they miss it. For Jeremy, it seems like if he goes down on the quad, the rest of the performance is nearly always nervy and his TES suffers. He needs the quad to be more consistent or learn to put it behind him if he misses it to challenge for the podium at Worlds. Now, maybe he has mastered one or both of these things in the past weeks, and if he has and delivers, he has a very good shot, but I have my doubts...

 

[Olympia]

Olympia, after the 2011 year and the way this season is heading, I'm a little surprised by your POV.

1. The top ladies skater is probably Carolina Kostner, who doesn't have the body of a ten year old, and is able to win because her skills all around are incredible, and her jumps are pretty far up there in terms of quality. Should she win Worlds, she'll be the oldest skater to do so since Slutskaya won her second title. Kostner is successful because she does skate to the rules.

2. Yes, Tukatmisheva did wonderfully on the GP circuit heralding the age of the Russian Baby Brigade. But we also saw Suzuki land her first triple-triple combination at age 26. Should she win, she'd be the oldest skate to win worlds since Butyrskaya.

3. Indeed, should the podium have three of: Czisny, Wagner, Kostner, Suzuki or Asada we'll have a podium full of ladies in their twenties

Pogue, somehow I missed this response to a comment I made earlier (which was rather downhearted about the possible future of CoP skating). You make an interesting point, and I should keep this in mind as I watch the skating, this season at least. Thanks for putting things this way. I just hope that at Sochi the podium features ladies of a similar variety of ages and sizes and shapes. (And Mao!) But for now, I should relax. As you say, things are pretty interesting right in front of our faces.