Who is Russia's best skater going into Sochi?

[ImaginaryPogue]

That's what the Mayans meant!

ForeverFish, Lipnitskaia isn't eligible for this season's worlds, so I imagine Sotnikova, Leonova and Tuktamisheva will be the trio. Leonova, imo, is in a similar position that Wier was in the pre-Olympic/Olympic seasons. The federation will dump her if they get the chance, but she might not let them.

 

[pangtongfan]

Any Russian who medals at Worlds this year is pretty safe to make the Olympic team next year IMO. I cant think of any country in skating history who left a reigning World medalist off their Olympic team, and there have been stronger skating teams than even the 2014 Russian Olympic ladies team will be. That is unless they somehow sweep the podium at Worlds, in which case I predict one will still be bumped off to make room for Julia L. barring a major collapse or growth spurt for her. So if 2 Russians somehow make the podium at Worlds this year (very unlikely IMO), the one who didnt make it is pretty much screwed going into next season as far as the Olympics goes already.

 

[ForeverFish]

That's what the Mayans meant!

ForeverFish, Lipnitskaia isn't eligible for this season's worlds, so I imagine Sotnikova, Leonova and Tuktamisheva will be the trio. Leonova, imo, is in a similar position that Wier was in the pre-Olympic/Olympic seasons. The federation will dump her if they get the chance, but she might not let them.

Isn't she? That's a shame, but at the same time, I feel that she'd be in over her head at that level. She can use the reprieve to develop her style and artistry more--looks like her first huge international experience could be the Sochi Olympics. Looks like we have our Russian trio then. I predict Liza will finish first of the three, followed by Adelina, then Alena.

 

[ForeverFish]

Any Russian who medals at Worlds this year is pretty safe to make the Olympic team next year IMO. I cant think of any country in skating history who left a reigning World medalist off their Olympic team, and there have been stronger skating teams than even the 2014 Russian Olympic ladies team will be. That is unless they somehow sweep the podium at Worlds, in which case I predict one will still be bumped off to make room for Julia L. barring a major collapse or growth spurt for her. So if 2 Russians somehow make the podium at Worlds this year (very unlikely IMO), the one who didnt make it is pretty much screwed going into next season as far as the Olympics goes already.

Leonova will get bumped, if any. Adelina and Elizaveta have already stunned with their talent and are only plowing full-steam ahead. I also think they'll both finish ahead of Alena at Worlds, even if they don't make the podium. Of the three, Liza has the best chance of medaling.

 

[Li'Kitsu]

It is funny to see the way people talk about Julia. So according to most everyone here she has weak little jumps, overhyped not so great spins or spirals, no artistry or musicality at all, is slow. Yet despite this she crushed a star studded field to easily win World Juniors, and has already posted one of the highest competition scores seen in recent years of the lately relatively lakcuster Senior ladies field to start the season. How does she manage to do all this with such poor jumps, no artistry, no great skills. She must be great at hypnotizing the judges.

Coming from someone talking about Chan and his marks the way you do seems a little funny. As if she would be the first case to get higher PCS than she deserves, and that's just whats happening here.
So you want to tell me Julia has huge and powerful jumps? I wouldn't even call that that absurd, if it wasn't for that Axel.
And you don't see how she just skates right through her music, like she wouldn't be listening to it at all? Huh.
The jugdes love consistency, and maybe that's another thing pushing her PCS. But I don't really care why or how - the way she skates now, she shouldn't get PCS in the same range as some of the veterans like Ashley, Akiko or Mao. And given how young she is, that's just fine.

 

[sky_fly20]

It is funny to see the way people talk about Julia. So according to most everyone here she has weak little jumps, overhyped not so great spins or spirals, no artistry or musicality at all, is slow. Yet despite this she crushed a star studded field to easily win World Juniors, and has already posted one of the highest competition scores seen in recent years of the lately relatively lakcuster Senior ladies field to start the season. How does she manage to do all this with such poor jumps, no artistry, no great skills. She must be great at hypnotizing the judges.

I think this was always an advantage for Julia, she was always a judges favorite
in her Senior Debut her PCS was already comparable to Adelina's in relative to say Liza's who still suffer from low PCS

 

[pangtongfan]

Coming from someone talking about Chan and his marks the way you do seems a little funny. As if she would be the first case to get higher PCS than she deserves, and that's just whats happening here.
So you want to tell me Julia has huge and powerful jumps? I wouldn't even call that that absurd, if it wasn't for that Axel.
And you don't see how she just skates right through her music, like she wouldn't be listening to it at all? Huh.
The jugdes love consistency, and maybe that's another thing pushing her PCS. But I don't really care why or how - the way she skates now, she shouldn't get PCS in the same range as some of the veterans like Ashley, Akiko or Mao. And given how young she is, that's just fine.

I dont think she has huge jumps but she has perfect rotation, positions, landing control so deserves very high GOE. Her spins are wonderful, and her non jump elements. I dont feel like she skates through the music, I find she has a beautiful feel for music. The crowd at Junior Worlds especialy did too, cheering many times throughout her performance at her hitting some of the music highlights and giving her a rousing ovation at the end.

Julia is too new to just be gifted marks the way Chan is. Judges take more than a couple months to instantaneously fall in love with someone to the "I will give them huge marks no matter what" degree. Granted the Russian fed. of old could do the trick, but the Russians politically have no power anymore, even the Canadians have tons more political power and strength than Russian now as the often inflated scores of Chan, sometimes Virtue & Moir, Dube & Davison at times, and even Osmond's highly controversial Skate Canada scores and win proves. Plus she isnt even the Russian fed. favorite I dont think, Sotnikova is, but if Julia L continues producing better scores, performances, results, they will have no choice but to support her as their #1 next season.

 

[seniorita]

Go watch her Russian Nationals performance from 2010, 2011, and then Nebelhorn this year. It is obvious, just from looking, that she grew a LOT during all of these time periods.

Thats what we were saying about Adelina and Liza from season to season, before they had their big growth spurt. From Nationals to Nationals you see they are getting taller but keep their body in same analogies, until Adelina last year and Liza this year started having more woman bodies and everything else that goes with it. I dont think growing taller in children from year to next and hitting puberty is the same.

 

[Buttercup]

Tatiana Volosozhar

No, really - if this thread is just about the ladies, it should say so in the title.

I'm not sure who the best Russian lady is, but I think that if the ladies event in Sochi will be anywhere close to the Vancouver standard, all of them are most likely to medal via the team event. Post-Olympics, things might get more interesting...

 

[lowtherlore]

For now, Tuktamy, Sotni, and Lipni. But 14 months (until their Oly season nationals) is a long enough time for anything to happen, so I wouldn’t count out Leonova, Makarova or Polina K. They are all young.

 

[naan]

I think Liza is the most talented girl. She has good jumping technique, musicality, and mentality.

 

[bluesky85]

What I see in Julia Lipnitskaya

There is so much talk about Julia Lipnitskaya here. Some say she's amazing, others say she's just getting favoured, some say she will lose her jumps as she grows, others say she has already been growing, which hasn't affected her ability to jump at all, sill others say her fast rotations and abdominal muscles will keep her jumps. I am a little confused as to where she really stands, but here is what I think. She will surely experience growth spurt, not only in height, but also in weight, muscle strength, and in mentality. She will eventually grow into a woman. i don't know if that will be before or after Sochi, and i don't know if that will affect her ability to jump and rotations. It might, and it might not. Growing is so much more complicated than just getting taller, change in the centre of gravity, or rotation speed. Also, figure skating is more than just jumps and spins and steps. It includes artistry, speed on the ice, ice coverage, edge qualities, music etc.

Having said that, I don't think Julia is neither simply a wunderkind bubble that will disappear after nor a fully grown accomplished skater (not yet anyways though she might later eventually). Here are her good qualities that I see: she nails her jumps well with amazing consistency and carries out each element well without missing anything, which has made her the judge's favourite, because the judges have to give points to the skaters who actually do the elements. Her amazing hyper-flexibility and the speed of her spins and other rotations give her extra points, too, and she has her movements. She has good speed on the ice and strong basics, such as skating skills.

But she also has some weak points that she needs to polish before becoming a truly accomplished skater. Her jump qualities may not be so great. Somehow, I noticed that her jumps don't look as solid and strong as some other stronger skaters, and the scale is not very big. These might improve as she gains more muscle strength as she grows older, or they might not, if she becomes heavier. I will need to wait and see. Also, I am not really sure, but I heard some people saying that she takes off on her blades when she does her toe jumps and she also has a slight flutz that has managed to avoid edge calls, although these are not my observation. Lastly, she often skates through music, not all the time, but much of her program. There were moments that I could not feel the music in her skating, and I think it is more than just her young age, because I have seen younger skaters with little artistry yet feel the music more than her. I think it is because of her concentration on athletic part of her skating. This might improve as well as she gains maturity and begins to open her eyes and ears to the music, or she might continue to simply focus on carrying out the elements.

In short, I see a lot of good qualities already in her and lots of potentials as well, but also she needs to work on some of her weaknesses. She is only 14, so anything can happen before the Olympics. I feel that we will need to wait and see before crowning her as the next #1 of Russia or dismissing her as nothing more than a bubble.

 

[tulosai]

Thats what we were saying about Adelina and Liza from season to season, before they had their big growth spurt. From Nationals to Nationals you see they are getting taller but keep their body in same analogies, until Adelina last year and Liza this year started having more woman bodies and everything else that goes with it. I dont think growing taller in children from year to next and hitting puberty is the same.

This is an extremely selective piece of what I said. In my post I acknowledged that growing taller is not the same as puberty. However, if you read the thread, at least 2 people have said if she gets taller (specifically taller) OR experiences puberty it may be a problem. I was addressing them because it seems foolish to me to keep saying for three years that if she gets taller she will lose her jumps when in reality, she is constantly growing taller.

 

[Jammers]

This is an extremely selective piece of what I said. In my post I acknowledged that growing taller is not the same as puberty. However, if you read the thread, at least 2 people have said if she gets taller (specifically taller) OR experiences puberty it may be a problem. I was addressing them because it seems foolish to me to keep saying for three years that if she gets taller she will lose her jumps when in reality, she is constantly growing taller.

The growing taller part isn't the problem that gets these girls. It's when their bodies change as they grow. Example Mira Nagasu from 13 to 14 grew 4 inches but had the same little girl body but from 14 to 15 she not only grew taller but her body changed and it threw her for a loop for over a year. This will happen to Julia too. And it could happen in the next year which could derail her for awhile.

 

[AlexRus]

Having said that, I don't think Julia is neither simply a wunderkind nor a fully accomplished skater.

Julia Lipnitskaia was a wunderkind (although not so much wunderkind as Anastasia Gubanova, who at 8 first landed 3F, and at 9 lands 3T+3T, both in competition).
She at 9 won Elena Radionova at "baby nationals" (it is rare when in group "10 years old and younger" qualify 9-years old girls, Julia and Elena did it).
She (girl of province) at 10 won 7 of 12 Moscow and StPetersburg skaters at next "baby nationals" (difference between "capitals" and "province" in Russia is very big, so it looks like girl of Thailand or Malaysia would be in higher half of US Nationals).
She at beginning of next season (for half an year after her "10-years-old success") had good enough triples.

But now she is not a wunderkind. She is world level skater now. She is too young to be a fully accomplished skater and has time for progress. She may in future have puberty problems, of course.
We must know that her progress for now was permanent. All seasons better than previous season and end of season better than beginning of season.

Let us wish her good luck. She deserves it.

 

[l'etoile]

The whole post

 

[bluesky85]

You misunderstood me, AlexRus. I didn't say that she is not a wunderkind. In fact, there is no doubt that she was and she still is. I meant she was a wunderkind but not JUST a wunderkind. Wunderkind can mean simply just that and nothing more, which means that a kid with amazing talent who disappears after as an adult. I was saying that she is still a wunderkind but she might eventually grow into something more than simply a wunderkind (or not) depending on how she develops as a skater, and only time will tell. I actually agree with you in that she did amazing thing as a child, so you don't need to be defensive of Julia. I have nothing against her In fact, I am just observing her as a neutral observer

 

[bluesky85]

Julia Lipnitskaia was a wunderkind (although not so much wunderkind as Anastasia Gubanova, who at 8 first landed 3F, and at 9 lands 3T+3T, both in competition).
She at 9 won Elena Radionova at "baby nationals" (it is rare when in group "10 years old and younger" qualify 9-years old girls, Julia and Elena did it).
She (girl of province) at 10 won 7 of 12 Moscow and StPetersburg skaters at next "baby nationals" (difference between "capitals" and "province" in Russia is very big, so it looks like girl of Thailand or Malaysia would be in higher half of US Nationals).
She at beginning of next season (for half an year after her "10-years-old success") had good enough triples.

But now she is not a wunderkind. She is world level skater now. She is too young to be a fully accomplished skater and has time for progress. She may in future have puberty problems, of course.
We must know that her progress for now was permanent. All seasons better than previous season and end of season better than beginning of season.

Let us wish her good luck. She deserves it.

Hi AlexRus, I think you misunderstood me a little so I made a slight change. Hope you check it out I am just trying to gather information and find an objective middle ground on Julia Lipnitskaya among the two conflicting point of views written by so many people.

 

[kwanatic]

And you don't see how she just skates right through her music, like she wouldn't be listening to it at all? Huh.
The jugdes love consistency, and maybe that's another thing pushing her PCS. But I don't really care why or how - the way she skates now, she shouldn't get PCS in the same range as some of the veterans like Ashley, Akiko or Mao. And given how young she is, that's just fine.

ITA. That's my issue. Julia is a good skater and deserves the marks she gets for the consistency in her jumps and her interesting spins.

My problem with her is the PCS she receives don't reflect what she does on the ice. She receives high marks for CH and IN, yet her choreography consists of various leg lifts and she skates straight through her music. She's often overmarked in TR (again with the leg lifts) and her SS are decent but not worth the scores she often receives. With PCS that high, why would she work on better choreography or different transitions or bother actually listening to the music she's skating to? This is where excited judges and their overly high marks do more harm than good. If the scores don't reflect the areas of her skating that need work, she has no reason to change anything. If her PE, CH and IN received the marks she should get (mid 5s, low 6s instead of 7s and 8s) that might make her team re-evaluate their approach and try a little harder.

As far as the comparisons to Sasha Cohen, I think Julia is a much stronger jumper than Sasha was and Sasha was a far better performer in terms of interpretation, choreography, understanding the music, etc. She was crazy flexibile but it was used in gorgeous ways to highlight moments in the program and add effect. Julia's flexibility displays rarely add anything to the overall effect of the program. She needs a choreographer who will utilize her flexibility rather than exploit it. Hopefully as she gets older she'll branch out with her style and choreography...she has the potential to be really amazing.

 

[drivingmissdaisy]

My problem with her is the PCS she receives don't reflect what she does on the ice. She receives high marks for CH and IN, yet her choreography consists of various leg lifts and she skates straight through her music. She's often overmarked in TR (again with the leg lifts) and her SS are decent but not worth the scores she often receives. With PCS that high, why would she work on better choreography or different transitions or bother actually listening to the music she's skating to? This is where excited judges and their overly high marks do more harm than good. If the scores don't reflect the areas of her skating that need work, she has no reason to change anything. If her PE, CH and IN received the marks she should get (mid 5s, low 6s instead of 7s and 8s) that might make her team re-evaluate their approach and try a little harder.

This. Her programs look more like a circus act than a well thought-out piece of choreography. I wish the judges would slam her on PCS so she can adjust her programs to better highlight her incredible talent.