Who can rival Kim in Sochi: Asada or Kostner?

[hurrah]

If Carolina can match her BV with Yuna's, then yes. Carolina has a chance.

If Mao can raise her jump quality just a wee bit more, then yes. Mao has a chance.

Both scenarios are possible. Caro's BV was a huge improvement this season compared to previous season, and if she can put in 3flip-3toe in short and second lutz/flip in the free, it's done. Mao's jump quality has been improving incrementally every season, so it's definitely within the realm of possibility that she'll get her jump technique down pat by Sochi.

 

[Mirunna]

Out of Mao and Caro, i would say Mao. She is more reliable, a bit more consistent. Even with her jumps not being on par with Carolina and even with her insecurity considering the changes she did on her jumps, she still was more clean than Kostner at worlds. The 1Loop was a fluke and beside that she went for everything and stayed on her feet, even landing a close to clean 3A after missing it time after time in practice and manage to rotate another one in the LP even if the landing was not very good. To me, that is grit and determination and out of the 3 ladies I think she wants it the most. With Caro its good she doesn't want it that bad, it keeps the pressure off now that she has a world title but some of the pressure and inner demons might come back at Sochi, she will probably want to skate well for the first time at the Olympics. However both ladies are on an ascending curve: Caro brought back 3Lz and 3F-3T and landed them at worlds for the first time while Mao is geting her 3A more consistent and with her new jump layout, even if she didn't do it cleanly so far, it gives her back the killer instinct. It was less obvious at worlds because she felt the pressure to make the podium after 2 years hiatus but it was pretty obvious at 4CC.
All 3 ladies will have their own major hurdle at Sochi: Yuna will be the defending champion( and if she does it she will be the best ladies figure skater ever, especially if she skates like she did at Worlds. Not that she is too shabby right now ), Carolina will have to redeem herself after 2 disastrous Olympics (her Vancouver LP still gives me nightmares, it was hard to be her fan sometimes) and Sochi might be Mao's last chance to fulfill her lifetime wish to became Olympic champion. If I could, I would give both 3 ladies the gold, they are that good, and if by some cruel twist of fate the gold won't be going to one of this 3 ladies I will be heartbroken. No Sarah Hughes please!

 

[blue_idealist]

I think Mao will pull one of her best skates ever out of her back pocket to win the silver again. Carolina's inconsistent and historically has not skated well at the Olympics.

 

[npavel]

I'm not so sure it's Mao last chance to get the Olympic gold. She might go to a third Olympic, she isn't that old. With team event before, she might already have a medal and that will take out some pressure from her. With 2018 there she can be the first lady to have 5 medals (if she is still there at her third Olympic and two team events). So I hope she is the one who stays in for another quarter.
I hope Carolina stick around with the formula, she has achieved her dream and skates for her joy. This year she has for the first time taken a break from competition not doing the GP. I think it was god as her body needed time to regenerate. I think that affected a little bit her programs as she hadn't time to get it out so often, her SB after two major competitions was at worlds. But it was not as she had two year rest, like YuNa, so it was still just a little break. Her knees are not at best, so to get back to the full jump arsenal the rest was important for Carolina. I hope she can take the break now and then prepare great new programs and get them out a lot of times. Last year she did 3 GP, the GPF, Euros, Challenge Cup and Worlds, to peak at the last competition. So I think the formula is getting out a lot of times. I hope she can medal a Olympics and bring us the emotions with her beautiful skate.
YuNa was perfect in the long program, I didn't like the sp at all, but that is personal taste. She did great and deserved the win, I'm not sure if by such a margin, but of course, going out last and being the only one perfect, there was no discussion of her great come back.
I would too like if all of them could get a gold medal, but that is not possible. I hope they are all on the podium, that all of them do perfect programs and the best win.
If I could decide I would put Carolina in first, Mao in second and Kim in third, for so are the emotions I feel when they skate at their best, but I think it will be YuNa as she will get out with perfect programs, Carolina with a really strong showing and Mao with great programs. All the others have to mature more, it takes a lot of work on PCS to get at the level of these great skaters.

 

[snsd]

Part A- which is more likely to beat Kim and (or) win the gold
Part B- which is more likely to win out in the likely battle for silver
Part C- which is more in danger of falling right off the podium in favor of the 4-10 skaters from Worlds this year

Part A - Mao
Part B - Carolina
Part C - Carolina due to her previous encounters at the Olympics but Mao could easily be off the podium as well.

 

[drivingmissdaisy]

Part A - Mao
Part B - Carolina
Part C - Carolina due to her previous encounters at the Olympics but Mao could easily be off the podium as well.

I agree with this, except for C. I think Mao is more likely to end up off the podium simply because the mistakes she makes (primarily URs and pops) are much more costly that the type Carolina makes (primarily falls with a few pops). Caro is pretty good about rotating all of her jumps and accrues a lot of points that way.

 

[ManyCairns]

I do wonder if there will be any more COP scoring changes that will favor layouts like Mao's though (women's triple axel, etc.)? I still see YuNa as the clear favorite, regardless, but that is one factor I don't think has been brought into the discussion.

 

[CanadianSkaterGuy]

This x1000. Gracie Gold is the name you're looking for; and though I don't want to say she's in the same league as Yu-Na, entire package-wise, because she isn't, she IS in the framework (jumps: power, height, rotation, spins: she has better spins than Yu-Na, and footwork: I think Yu-na has found her style, and Gracie just needs to do the same). The big question here is artistry. She definitely needs the right packaging, and she needs the program of death..

I agree that Gold is one with the technical potential to match Kim, but she really needs the skates of her life and errors from Kim to have a remote chance of winning. She could definitely pull a Sarah Hughes on the competition, but under CoP she just might be a year or two too late in getting the sufficient PCS. A strong showing - top 5 - would be excellent for her though. And if she goes clean she can certainly beat Kostner or Asada who are arguably less consistent than Kim.

I'm 99% certain Asada will not skate a 8-triple program simply because it's way too ambitious and she hasn't sold me on her ability to land the 3-3 without UR and get a consistent 3A. It would be incredible though, but the reality is, if Kim goes clean, an 8-triple program will be the only thing that can beat her. It would really be an amazing feat though, and given Mao's improved skating (over, say, 2006 when she was just technically brilliant) it would be one of the best programs of all time if she were able to accomplish that.

As for Carolina, her overall skating is the best of the field but her jumping consistency immediately puts her out of the running, in my opinion. Granted, she could pull a Shizuka go clean with a less ambitious FS, and if Mao/Kim make errors she'll earn the victory. To me, her best strategy is to play it safe in the SP and go for a clean skate (an SP with 3F-2L, 3L, 2A can get her high 60s, maybe even above 70, and secure a medal for her). She really doesn't need to go for a 3-3 given the fact that 3T-3T is just 1 point higher than a 3F-2L and is much riskier for her. In the FS, if she wants to make a claim for gold against a clean Kim, she'll need at least a 3F-3T (ideally 3F-3T and 2A-3T). I would consider her capable of this, but other than Italian nationals Kostner hasn't gone clean at all this season so I really question her ability to win gold. Like Asada, if she were capable of producing a clean, difficult program at the Olympics, she could definitely challenge Kim (even a clean Kim) for gold, but I don't see it happening.

 

[pangtongfan]

I'm not so sure it's Mao last chance to get the Olympic gold.

It is her last chance for sure, even if she chose to go to 2018 (which I doubt). She would be 28 years old in 2018. She knows that too and it is why she is going out all out with crazy ambitious jump layouts to try and get it. People that age never wins a singles gold at the Olympics. Not to mention her skating peak was really back in 2006-2008 despite that she is still up near the top now, and since then she has had to fight to regain some semblance of consistency in her jumps several times, so I cant imagine as an old amateur skater her mantaining it. There is no way she would hold off the horde of young skaters post Sochi. If she tried for the Olympics in Korea, I suspect she wouldnt even make the Japanese Olympic team by then.

 

[Mirunna]

It is her last chance for sure, even if she chose to go to 2018 (which I doubt). She would be 28 years old in 2018. She knows that too and it is why she is going out all out with crazy ambitious jump layouts to try and get it. People that age never wins a singles gold at the Olympics. Not to mention her skating peak was really back in 2006-2008 despite that she is still up near the top now, and since then she has had to fight to regain some semblance of consistency in her jumps several times, so I cant imagine as an old amateur skater her mantaining it. There is no way she would hold off the horde of young skaters post Sochi. If she tried for the Olympics in Korea, I suspect she wouldnt even make the Japanese Olympic team by then.

While I don't see Mao going for 2018, I don't think a 28 year old Mao would necessarily be so out of form to not make the team. Suzuki is 28, Caro is 26. She could still potentially skate after Sochi IMO and make the world podium. If she can maintain her form and skills, it remains to be seen.

 

[CanadianSkaterGuy]

It is her last chance for sure, even if she chose to go to 2018 (which I doubt). She would be 28 years old in 2018. She knows that too and it is why she is going out all out with crazy ambitious jump layouts to try and get it. People that age never wins a singles gold at the Olympics.

Then why did you say before that if Maria Butyrskaya were a much better skater she could have won Olympic gold at the age of 29, and criticized her for being unable to do so?

 

[FlattFan]

Caro is more likely to upset Kim for the Gold. Stars must be aligned for her to skate clean. Can you imagine the kind of PCS she would get if skated clean.
Mao won't get the same PCS to be competitive with the two. She would have to rely on jumps. And she's not amazing in the jump department.

I hope Caro can pull out a win. I don't mind the other two winning, either.

 

[hurrah]

Caro is more likely to upset Kim for the Gold. Stars must be aligned for her to skate clean. Can you imagine the kind of PCS she would get if skated clean.
Mao won't get the same PCS to be competitive with the two. She would have to rely on jumps. And she's not amazing in the jump department.

I hope Caro can pull out a win. I don't mind the other two winning, either.

Even if Caro had skated clean this season, she still would not have beaten Yuna because her BV is not quite high enough. Caro needs to skate clean a higher BV program to beat Yuna next season. She needs a second lutz or flip in her FP.

Mao, if she were to skate clean an eight-triple program, would get the same PCS as Yuna and Caro, though if she were clean, she would not even need it to beat both Yuna and Caro because her BV is 10 points higher.

Mao is not just about jumps, actually. Her skating and spins have vastly improved under Mr. Sato. Her spiral was and is the best of these three (that was the one element that she beat Yuna even in Vancouver). Her step sequence is better than Yuna's and equal to or better than Caro's. She has always had the best lines and stretch of the three. The other strength that Mao has is her stamina. Mao has always had the ability to maintain her stamina throughout a program, and this season, she had two difficult combination jumps in the second-half of her FP which she completed quite successfully. Also, Mao is really quite strong mentally. Mr. Sato and Japanese commentators have remarked that she usually does better in competition than in practice.

The only thing that is holding back Mao now, I believe, is that she still has not quite mastered the new technique on her more difficult jumps, namely, 3-axel, flip and lutz. If she can become more comfortable with these three jumps, and it is very possible that she will by Sochi, she can get gold.

 

[Jaana]

I think Kostner would have a good chance of beating Kim, if she would be able to be more consistent in her programmes. And the only way to become really consistent, is to skate run-throughs again, again, again, etc..... Unfortunately I have gotten the impression from her past interviews that skating run-throughs repeatedly is not somethink she is willing to do.

 

[CanadianSkaterGuy]

The only thing that is holding back Mao now, I believe, is that she still has not quite mastered the new technique on her more difficult jumps, namely, 3-axel, flip and lutz. If she can become more comfortable with these three jumps, and it is very possible that she will by Sochi, she can get gold.

I think she can make a lock for silver, but she really will need an 8 triple program if Kim goes clean. Mao really needs to get a handle on her 3F and 3L -- it's supposed to be a go-to jump for her and she's missed both several times this season, particularly her flip has UR issues. Obviously she no longer 13, but I find she doesn't have that same snap in her jumps that she had before. I'm amazed that her 3A is back. I feel really bad about her lutz still getting flutz calls when she's made such an effort to try to mitigate that, while most flutzers just accept it and don't bother changing their technique (I mean, a well-executed flutz still pulls in over 5 points). Her 3S is another jump I commend her on getting a handle of.

The first few GP events will be really telling. If Mao skates how she did at the start of this season, I would fear for her come the Olympics. Hopefully a strong SP at 4CC and getting back on the World podium are the boosts she needed to peak again at the Olympics.

 

[cheerio2]

The only thing that is holding back Mao now, I believe, is that she still has not quite mastered the new technique on her more difficult jumps, namely, 3-axel, flip and lutz. If she can become more comfortable with these three jumps, and it is very possible that she will by Sochi, she can get gold.

Mastering the three most difficult jumps in ladies figure skating is a pretty tall order

 

[Cherryy]

Looking back at the past 20 or so years, I am trying to think of ladies skaters who went to multiple Olympics and improved upon their previous placements in a substantial way. Off the top of my head, the notable ones are Sasha in 2006 vs 2002, Shizuka in 2006 vs. 1998 and Irina in 2002 vs. 1998, but none had really started to come into their own at their first Olympics and were not favorites there. If you look at Olympic medalists who went to multiple Olympics as favorites/medal contenders, their second performance was usually worse than their first--Irina (2006 vs. 2002), Michelle (2002 vs. 1998), Lu Chen (well, same bronze medal in 1998 vs. 1994, but she was VERY lucky to get that bronze medal in 1998 considering she wasn't the skater she used to be). Only Nancy Kerrigan improved on her placement from 1992 to the 1994 Olympics, and that surely must have had to do with the short 2-year break in between the Olympics. And I guess you'd have to go back to Sjoukje Dijkstra and Carol Heiss to find skaters who medaled at their first Olympics (non-gold) and then followed it up with a gold at their next.

So, I do think it's interesting that veteran world champions like Michelle Kwan and Irina Slutskaya and others had their best Olympic performances the first time they went as a favorite/top contender versus the second time. I think Kostner can break this trend and get a medal on her third time, but it'd be unprecedented if she got gold. Of course, anything can happen and I'm sure next season will be full of excitement.

This is what I've been doing for the past weeks - analyzing whether there's some kind of a pattern in olympic medallists.
Interesting thought here, thanks for it.

What is important in my opinion is that Yuna somehow already reached what she is capable of and I don't see where could she improve, except for adding 3L and performing a 7-triple program, that she's probably not planning to do. Her GOE's and PCS are so high there is little room to improve so we can say her ultimate best is around 150 points. When it comes to Caro and Mao I know they rarely if ever perform a clean long but the potential is higher. All posters said Mao has massive BV if executed correctly (the only mistake being the flutz). She almost reached 135 even with multiple slight errors so there's a lot of room where she can improve. Based on potential only, she could outscore Kim in both SP and FS. Same with Kostner - there is potential, she has as good jump quality as Kim, her PCS were even higher in the SP. I doubt she could come close to 150, her only mistakes were the 3S and 3L, maximum 8 additional points? 10? That's still far from 150. She is also less likely to beat Kim in the SP with her current jump layout.

Pangtongfan pointed it out nicely, that there's a difference in questions - 1.who is more likely to upset Kin and win gold and who is more likely to take the silver and my opinion is the same as his/her. Mao is probably closer to beating Kim, but Kostner has an edge over Mao when it comes to skating for silver, though it seems to be illogical. Still, there's one more improtant factor - Carolina has had kind of meltdowns at olympics, this can happen again.

As much as I admire Yuna for all her greatness, talent, sacrifies she had to make and everything, she already got her gold. I just feel like "Oh please Kim, let someone else feel what it's like!" (and let it be Mao PLEASE)

 

[hurrah]

Mastering the three most difficult jumps in ladies figure skating is a pretty tall order

Well, it's not like Mao has 0% consistency in these jumps. Mao said sometime around 4CC that her success rate in practice in completing all her jump passes successfully in her free program was 30%. So it's not so much mastery that is the issue for Mao but consistency.

We have already seen Mao execute a beautiful 3-axel once in competition (4CC SP) and even more beautiful fully, fully rotated 3-axels in recent practice clips, as well as beautiful fully-rotated 3-flips with great height and flow in practice clips and also in exhibitions. The only thing we have not seen is a completely successful 3-lutz in competition (but she can probably win with a very good flutz as long her flip and axel are good).

So I think it's a question of consistency. Please! Consistency!!

 

[Macassar88]

I concede it's a possibility, but so is Mao going 100% clean with her 8-triple layout. A 100% clean Mao is more likely to outscore a clean Yuna than Carolina, because of the massive base value.

We're not sure what Yuna will do for next season either. She's most likely to stick with her current layout, but there's no reason she can't increase her own technical content. She's done it before for Vancouver. She changed her combo from 3F+3T to 3Lz+3T and made her solo 3Lz her last triple jump. Granted, these have no impact under CoP, but as far as impressing the judges, I think they went a long way.

What if she switches the 3S-2T for a 3F-2t? That's an extra point and a bit.

 

[Olympia]

Pangtongfan pointed it out nicely, that there's a difference in questions - 1.who is more likely to upset Kin and win gold and who is more likely to take the silver and my opinion is the same as his/her. Mao is probably closer to beating Kim, but Kostner has an edge over Mao when it comes to skating for silver, though it seems to be illogical. Still, there's one more improtant factor - Carolina has had kind of meltdowns at olympics, this can happen again.

As much as I admire Yuna for all her greatness, talent, sacrifies she had to make and everything, she already got her gold. I just feel like "Oh please Kim, let someone else feel what it's like!" (and let it be Mao PLEASE)

Your last paragraph very much echoes my frame of mind. I'd love for Mao to have a gold because I just adore her skating. But if YuNa wins, it will be because she's still the extraordinary skater she was in 2010, and it will be well deserved.

I love Hurrah's description of Mao (post 676) in terms of her skating quality, her stamina, and her mental toughness. Those are the aspects of her that I've always seen, and which make me admire her so much. (Add to that her musicality, expressiveness, ankles-down excellence, beautiful arms, and a number of other details.) I have faith that she'll keep going until she gets to where she needs to be, and I'd love for her to make it to the top of the podium.