Who can rival Kim in Sochi: Asada or Kostner?

[Mrs. P]

Okay, given that poor Miki Ando is so "washed up" that she can't get her own thread, I though we could continue the Mao vs Carolina discussion here. I'm not a uber fan of either but have found much to admire about both skaters.

In the last quad, it was very much Mao vs. Yuna, though Mao was starting to slip a bit toward the end of the 2009 season. That said, this quad has been a bit different then everyone's expected. Mao has not dominated as expected and despite a very admirable effort to rework her jumps, she finished third behind Yuna and Carolina and has not won a world title since the end of the last quad.

Carolina on the other hand seem to struggle in the last quad but really found her way in this quad. In fact, it's worth noting that with the exception of her two GP events this past fall (which she WD) she has been on the podium for every event she's entered, similar to Yuna in the last quad. Now Yuna has NEVER been off the podium in her entire career, she's got Carolina there.

That said, I think Carolina makes a good case for being Yuna's key rival, even its a distant one. However, one should not underestimate the grit and determination of Mao either. She has survived a complete reworking of technique plus the unfortunate death of her mother and seem to be in fighting form at Worlds.

So let's keep discussing.

 

[pangtongfan]

Well which discussion is it, who is more likely to win the silver in Sochi between Kostner or Asada, or which has more of a chance to upset Kim for the gold? The two arent entirely the same answer neccessarily.

 

[Figga]

In either case, my mind tells me Caro but my heart says it'll probably be Mao. Mao could very well pull off that super program in Sochi, unlikely as it is.

 

[chuckm]

Kim doesn't worry about winning, she just goes out there and skates to her capability, which is considerable. The problem is that Mao wants to win so badly, much like Michelle Kwan and Sasha Cohen. That's too much of a burden on the ice and it leads to mistakes. Kostner is a cooler customer---I suspect she doesn't focus as much on winning---but she, too, is prone to mistakes. I don't think either one of them is going to beat YuNa.

 

[Figga]

Of the 3 ladies, I think Caro has the most beautiful looking jumps. Yuna however shines with the consistent 3-3 and her ability to transition into jumps seamlessly. Caro could use a bit of work here but I feel Mao needs it even more. I know she's reworking her technique but it still looks awkward to see the hesitation before each jump (aside from her axel jumps of course, she's got a pretty nice 2-3).

 

[Mrs. P]

Well which discussion is it, who is more likely to win the silver in Sochi between Kostner or Asada, or which has more of a chance to upset Kim for the gold? The two arent entirely the same answer neccessarily.

Either/or.

Basically i just felt the discussion on the Miki thread merited its own thread.

One could argue that Yuna will run away with the gold, but out of the two, which one could give her some run or a run for her money?

 

[Moment]

Carolina and Mao would make great rivals.

 

[pangtongfan]

Either/or.

Basically i just felt the discussion on the Miki thread merited its own thread.

One could argue that Yuna will run away with the gold, but out of the two, which one could give her some run or a run for her money?

More likely to win silver: Kostner IMO. Something like 70-30
More likely to "upset" Kim for gold: Mao IMO. Something like 15% odds to only 5% odds for Kostner IMO.

These are just my personal opinions but I think Kostner's chance to beat Kim was this year. I dont think it will come ever again. Kim has all the momentum back and will not be beaten on GOE or PCS by anyone, including Kostner, and Kostner doesnt do a higher base value or harder program. So even skating well I dont see where she would get ahead, and Kim is obviously the more consistent and likely to skate clean too. Kostner had some momentum built up in Kim`s absence, and the SP scoring at Worlds indicates she atleast had a fighting chance. However now that Kim is the reigning World and Olympic Champion again, and with her Worlds LP all the judges momentum is back in Kim`s favor, and it will take someone pulling something incredibly hard out of the hat (which leads us to Mao Asada next) to have a hope of beating her.

Asada is more of a wildcard. She does not get the GOE or PCS of Kim or Kostner, and while she could come up with a masterpiece of a program to somewhat alter the PCS part, I dont think she will next year either. However she has by far the hardest program, as hard as the programs of both Kim and Kostner are, Asada had a huge base value edge. The problem is that it is so incredibly hard skating it cleanly is almost impossible, even 2 mistakes in the long is a good skate for her it seems. However if somehow lightning strikes and she skates perfectly or close to it in the short and longs with her current layout, that could make her a big threat to Kim, and if Kim makes any mistakes she could then lose.

So who is more likely to win silver is Kostner I think. More likely to upset Kim for gold is Asada.

 

[pangtongfan]

With Kostner and Asada and how the current competitive picture looks now heading into Sochi one could make it a 3 pronged question:

Part A- which is more likely to beat Kim and (or) win the gold
Part B- which is more likely to win out in the likely battle for silver
Part C- which is more in danger of falling right off the podium in favor of the 4-10 skaters from Worlds this year

The answer various people have for each could vary quite a bit.

 

[skateluvr]

Yuna has no rivals. Worlds proved it. The one who can out jump her and is a star is Gold but she'll never catch Yuna by next year unless the judges like her so much during GP and give her big scores in all areas. I think Gold has potential. But not enough world experience to challenge cool golden Yuna. Yuna is back and barring injury, all but an aftethought for gold again. The rest of the podium is once again the only discussion left.

 

[prettykeys]

If Carolina successfully adds the 3F-3T to both SP and LP, she would probably be the one to really watch out for.

 

[Krislite]

If Carolina successfully adds the 3F-3T to both SP and LP, she would probably be the one to really watch out for.

Assuming she can skate clean in such a big competition. I don't think in her 10 Worlds and 2 Olympics she's ever put two clean skates together.

 

[pangtongfan]

Assuming she can skate clean in such a big competition. I don't think in her 10 Worlds and 2 Olympics she's ever put two clean skates together.

There is a first time for everything isnt there. Given her Olympic history that would be a mammoth feat to do it for the first time ever in World level competition there.

 

[prettykeys]

There is a first time for everything isnt there.

Yes, there is! YuNa's first clean SP+LP competition at the Senior level was at the Olympics!

 

[Krislite]

There is a first time for everything isnt there. Given her Olympic history that would be a mammoth feat to do it for the first time ever in World level competition there.

I concede it's a possibility, but so is Mao going 100% clean with her 8-triple layout. A 100% clean Mao is more likely to outscore a clean Yuna than Carolina, because of the massive base value.

We're not sure what Yuna will do for next season either. She's most likely to stick with her current layout, but there's no reason she can't increase her own technical content. She's done it before for Vancouver. She changed her combo from 3F+3T to 3Lz+3T and made her solo 3Lz her last triple jump. Granted, these have no impact under CoP, but as far as impressing the judges, I think they went a long way.

 

[jaylee]

Kim doesn't worry about winning, she just goes out there and skates to her capability, which is considerable. The problem is that Mao wants to win so badly, much like Michelle Kwan and Sasha Cohen. That's too much of a burden on the ice and it leads to mistakes. Kostner is a cooler customer---I suspect she doesn't focus as much on winning---but she, too, is prone to mistakes. I don't think either one of them is going to beat YuNa.

I think that's Kim's true advantage, too--she's the only one who has an OGM in the bag already, regardless of what happens in Sochi. She has the most to gain by winning a second OGM--an incredibly rare and unique achievement--but she has less to lose than the others, too, should she not get the gold, since she already has one and a bag full of other medals.

That said, it's not over until it's over.

I think Kostner wants to get the Olympic medal that she didn't get in her previous two tries, and she wants to wipe away the disastrous memories of her past Olympic experiences. And she's at the very end of her career now, so it's her very last chance. And on top of that, if she's going for the gold, then you can't be hesitant at all, you have to put it all out there and skate without worrying about making a mistake. These are a lot of asks. I think she can control her nerves enough to get a medal, but she'll have to be perfect and maximize her technical content to put the pressure on Kim for the gold. That's a bit too much to ask of any skater on her third Olympics, particularly one with the history that Kostner has.

Never count Mao out--she's always full of surprises. Mao really needs to get a jumping layout that she can consistently execute cleanly. It's difficult to determine what Mao's scoring potential is when clean because what she plans on paper is far above what she actually executes. I fully expect Mao to be at the top of her game at the Olympics, but based on 2013 Worlds, my guess is that the judges would reward a clean Kostner more in terms of PCS than they would a clean Asada (or Kostner with mistakes versus Asada with mistakes). Now, Asada's TES potential is higher than Kostner's or Kim's if clean, but potential is just potential until it actually happens.

Looking back at the past 20 or so years, I am trying to think of ladies skaters who went to multiple Olympics and improved upon their previous placements in a substantial way. Off the top of my head, the notable ones are Sasha in 2006 vs 2002, Shizuka in 2006 vs. 1998 and Irina in 2002 vs. 1998, but none had really started to come into their own at their first Olympics and were not favorites there. If you look at Olympic medalists who went to multiple Olympics as favorites/medal contenders, their second performance was usually worse than their first--Irina (2006 vs. 2002), Michelle (2002 vs. 1998), Lu Chen (well, same bronze medal in 1998 vs. 1994, but she was VERY lucky to get that bronze medal in 1998 considering she wasn't the skater she used to be). Only Nancy Kerrigan improved on her placement from 1992 to the 1994 Olympics, and that surely must have had to do with the short 2-year break in between the Olympics. And I guess you'd have to go back to Sjoukje Dijkstra and Carol Heiss to find skaters who medaled at their first Olympics (non-gold) and then followed it up with a gold at their next.

So, I do think it's interesting that veteran world champions like Michelle Kwan and Irina Slutskaya and others had their best Olympic performances the first time they went as a favorite/top contender versus the second time. I think Kostner can break this trend and get a medal on her third time, but it'd be unprecedented if she got gold. Of course, anything can happen and I'm sure next season will be full of excitement.

 

[drivingmissdaisy]

Yuna possibly could leave the door open for the other two. I think of the few times a reigning gold medalist tried to defend, like Plushenko and Witt, and both left the door open with errors. I don't think Carolina can capitalize on Yuna's errors because she make too many errors herself and has not proven the ability to handle Olympic pressure. I don't think Mao can either because I don't think she can hit an 8 triple LP in practice and she loses so many points on GOE to Yuna that the difficulty almost doesn't help Mao at all. For me there's a huge gap between 1st and 2nd, and another huge gap between 3rd and the rest of the field. Gracie, Adelina, or Liza could medal just because they have such a high base value but they would have to be perfect and get help from Mao and Carolina. Yuna winning, to me, is a foregone conclusion.

 

[guanchi]

With Yuna already having an OGM, I get the feeling that she's skating more for her own self- yes, setting an example for Korean skaters back home and getting those spots are also reasons, but so is a sense of personal glory. This is a much more confident Yuna this time around, and with the weight of attaining an olympic gold fallen off a bit (tho still weighty given her worlds margin of victory), this Yuna seems to have a clear sense of her skating.
I remember mathman saying that she skated 2013 worlds like a winning 6.0 program- clean, flowing, the individual elements all looking unified. And it's like what chuckm is saying- she just goes out there and skates, but that's a result of her utter singlemindedness to perfecting her practices to translating that on the ice. Obviously, it's much harder to get those 2010 and 2013 results than what I just wrote, but it def. seems like Yuna has found a formula and is sticking to it. That she made 2013 look almost "easy" might lead some to suggest that she's not taking "risks"- like bringing back her loop, or attempting a triple axel, etc...but given that she still does 2 lutzes, one in a big combo, plus a flip while skating around faster than almost every other lady means it was never, ever "easy".

Yuna's got that formula down. She knows what she wants and knows how to do it.
Mao and Caro are still looking for their magic formulas, tho imo, Mao is looking harder for it. Caro's approach seems closer to Yuna's.

 

[chuckm]

The fact remains that at Worlds 2013, Kim beat Kostner by almost 20 points and Asada by almost 22. And YuNa did it with a 6-triple program where every element received high +GOE. Kostner planned 7 triples and landed 5 clean ones; Asada planned 8, but landed 6 of which only 3 were clean.

 

[zschultz1986]

Yuna has no rivals. Worlds proved it. The one who can out jump her and is a star is Gold but she'll never catch Yuna by next year unless the judges like her so much during GP and give her big scores in all areas. I think Gold has potential. But not enough world experience to challenge cool golden Yuna. Yuna is back and barring injury, all but an aftethought for gold again. The rest of the podium is once again the only discussion left.

This x1000. Gracie Gold is the name you're looking for; and though I don't want to say she's in the same league as Yu-Na, entire package-wise, because she isn't, she IS in the framework (jumps: power, height, rotation, spins: she has better spins than Yu-Na, and footwork: I think Yu-na has found her style, and Gracie just needs to do the same). The big question here is artistry. She definitely needs the right packaging, and she needs the program of death.

I agree though, Gracie's time is probably not Sochi, she's is definitely a lady to watch for the next quad. I doubt she catches up to Yu-Na by Sochi, but I do think she can make a good run at the podium with the usual caveat: 2 Clean Skates.


Out of Mao or Caro... I just don't know. It's a tossup on who skates better on the day, and its not gonna be for first. I agree that, barring injury or some freak performance from Yu-Na, these two will probably be battling for silver.