Which THREE U.S. Ladies do you want to see at the Olympics next year?

[Eddie Lee]

Past glory doesn't mean much in the end---it's what a skater is able to put out on the ice at Nationals...].

I agree-- to an extent. A skater must put out a program that will place them in the top three at Nationals. But a case in point. ....1998 Michelle won Nats without dispute. Tara fell in the SP. At 1998 Olympics, Michelle was deemed a shoo-in. She entered the LP in first. She skated a beautiful, slightly conservative LP, without a real hitch. When she finished that program, I think it was a foregone conclusion that she had aced the gold. Then along came Tara, the last skater with a not-quite-perfect skate, but a more technically advanced LP, skating with abandon--executing a 3/3 combo, plus a 3/3 sequence. We know the result! And four years later, who wudda dared predict Sarah--that is anyone other than Time Magazine!! In neither case had Nationals picked the winner. Not a perfect analogy, but still a bit puzzling. It proves the danger of "post-figures" Olympic predictions.

 

[b-man]

As far as I'm concerned, both Czisny and Nagasu are done. Nagasu (if healthy) could very well have an outside chance at spot #3 if she's at her best...but unless Zawadzki completely falls apart (possible!) I don't see it happening. Czisny- well, self-explanatory by this point.

Well, as far as I am concerned, Agnes is done. Six GP's, only a bronze. Two 4 continents opportunities, best was a 6th. All time international PB, below Hannah Miller, who has far less international experience.

 

[b-man]

Gold got invited to WTT last year when Czsiny, Zawadski, Zhang, Gao, Flatt, and Nagasu all turned it down. Did you want them to invite Vanessa Lam to WTT last year since she was the next highest Senior score at Nationals, even though Gold thoroughly beat her at JWs in 2012? Even though it's sort of a cheese event, there is some desire by each country to win and Gold is a better choice than Lam.

I don't see where Gold is getting "special treatment"

I agree with 96skiluvr on this. I have seen no evidence that WTT was offered last year to Agnes, Zhang, Gao, Flatt and Nagasu. If you have a link to show that happened, please supply it. I think Gold did get some special treatment being offered WTT as a junior over senior skaters, but she did skate well at WTT, so it did work out.

 

[ForeverFish]

Well, as far as I am concerned, Agnes is done. Six GP's, only a bronze. Two 4 continents opportunities, best was a 6th. All time international PB, below Hannah Miller, who has far less international experience.

But national judges seem to favor Agnes--she's a two-time US bronze medalist, and this year, she placed in front of Christina Gao when many felt that Gao had skated better.

Mirai clearly does not have the same advantage, as the judges have hammered her all the way down to seventh at her own Nationals for two years in a row. And do I even need to explain about Alissa? I think that the 22nd at 2012 Worlds sealed her fate, though the USFSA was merciful enough to give her a single GP assignment in the fall (which she ultimately rejected due to her hip). This second surgery is a hint to everyone that her body can no longer take the wear and tear of competitive skating.

 

[cinnamon]

I definitly would like Alissa to go with Gracie and Ashley.

 

[chuckm]

You haven't even seen Alissa skate yet. Would you still want to see her go if she could barely jump and her spins aren't the same as they used to be? Obviously, if that were the case, she wouldn't finish top 3 at Nationals and wouldn't be qualified to go anyway.

 

[ForeverFish]

You haven't even seen Alissa skate yet. Would you still want to see her go if she could barely jump and her spins aren't the same as they used to be? Obviously, if that were the case, she wouldn't finish top 3 at Nationals and wouldn't be qualified to go anyway.

If that were the case, I'd hope that she wouldn't put herself through the strain of Nationals and have another 2012 Worlds-esque experience. That just wouldn't be good for anyone involved.

 

[pangtongfan]

Czisny without her former level of spins wouldnt be worthy of the team even if she did a clean 5 or 6 triple program (her best ever performance had 6 landed but only 5 rotated and ratified triples, so forget 7 which she almost never even attempts). Without her spectacular spins and spirals what really is she, a pretty and pleasent but very slow and cautious skater, who dosnt skate with much confidence, presence, or even personality, who cant do the really difficult jump combinations and layout, has small and technically lacking jumps, who doesnt have great footwork or steps, and who often skates to programs without much in the way of choreography and transitions. After the 2012 Worlds debacle I doubt she would get any gifts from the USFSA and U.S judges, so the only way she makes the team is if she is good enough to, and without her former spins that she wouldnt be even with a good skate, unless the others bomb.

 

[b-man]

But national judges seem to favor Agnes--she's a two-time US bronze medalist, and this year, she placed in front of Christina Gao when many felt that Gao had skated better.

Yes, but international judges clearly prefer Gao and Nagasu. We are talking here about who should go to Sochi and worlds in Tokyo, not who should go to Boston. Both Gao and Nagasu this year beat Agnes on the GP circuit, both broke 175 in scores just this year, while Agnes has not managed to break 166 in the last three years. I doubt Agnes could break the top 10 in Sochi. While there is no guarantee that Nagasu or Gao would do so, they have a better shot at it than Agnes.

 

[Skater Boy]

Does anyone know How Alyssa is doing? You know it is a lottery - Mirai, Ayssa, Gao and Zawadiak are followed by Zhang and Hicks and whoever else. I do think Jiang is overrated and I am wondering if it is just a few on this webpage who like her - almost like maybe some of her followers just troll around but I digress. It is almost a situation that right now no one deserves it and it is a wonderful opportunity for some extremely lucky lady.

 

[ForeverFish]

Yes, but international judges clearly prefer Gao and Nagasu. We are talking here about who should go to Sochi and worlds in Tokyo, not who should go to Boston. Both Gao and Nagasu this year beat Agnes on the GP circuit, both broke 175 in scores just this year, while Agnes has not managed to break 166 in the last three years. I doubt Agnes could break the top 10 in Sochi. While there is no guarantee that Nagasu or Gao would do so, they have a better shot at it than Agnes.

Boston is the springboard to get to Sochi, though. Traditionally, the top two or three ladies will be sent to the Olympics--since 1960, the only deviation from this almost-standard protocol was in 1994, when Bobek was bypassed for Nancy Kerrigan, whose injury had forced her to withdraw from Nationals. It's also worth noting that Kerrigan already had an OBM under her belt headed into Lillehammer, which none of the current US ladies can boast. And next year won't be another 2008 situation, when three (Nagasu, Flatt, Zhang) of the top four were too young for senior ISU events.

SHOULD Zawadzki go to the Olympics? Probably not, but I also have my reservations about Gao (unremarkable up until this season, and STILL fifth at Nationals) and Nagasu (steadily declining since 2010, and now plagued with the dreaded UR problem). If the latter two fail to place in the top three in Boston, a trip to Sochi is more or less out of the question.

 

[b-man]

I just checked the scores from London. A 175 score, achieved, by Goa and Nagasu this season, is what Sotnikove achived for 9th, with Osmond with a 176 in 8th. A 166 score, which is Agnes's all time international PB drops you down to about 11th just ahead of Meite. I just don't think sending someone to Sochi with a PB of 166 is the smartest move, and I hope Agnes is not held up again in third next year. I don't believe Gao or Nagasu have been held up in the last 3-4 years.

 

[Mrs. P]

I just checked the scores from London. A 175 score, achieved, by Goa and Nagasu this season, is what Sotnikove achived for 9th, with Osmond with a 176 in 8th. A 166 score, which is Agnes's all time international PB drops you down to about 11th just ahead of Meite. I just don't think sending someone to Sochi with a PB of 166 is the smartest move, and I hope Agnes is not held up again in third next year. I don't believe Gao or Nagasu have been held up in the last 3-4 years.

Playing devil's advocate here as I'm neither a big detractor or fan of Agnes, but one must consider that Agnes score her PB of 166 wasn't really her ultimate best. She did a solid SP at COR, but not her best FS. Consider she scored 106 for a program that had to URs, an edge call and a pop jump.

Likewise at 4CC, Agnes scored 101+ with a pop in her 3T-3T combo, a edge call on the flip and a UR on her 3S and a popped axel and a level 2 spin.

And consider at that same competition, Christina did well (edge call on the lutz was her only issue) and she scored 113.

So I don't think it's a matter that judges prefer Christina and Mirai, in fact, they have scored better simply because they have performed better in competition this season.

So Agnes' challenge is to actually perform the VERY BEST thats she can do. We have seen flashes of that brilliance in the past, but she really needs to get two programs together. When she's on, she has huge jumps, amazing speed and just a sass about her. When she does poorly, she's tentative and makes dumb mistakes.

It's interesting, Agnes and Gracie had very similar situation. Both failed to make it to nationals out of their first year at the junior year, both came back and won the junior title and went on to win a medal at junior worlds and both were thrust to the senior level with little experience internationally.

But while Gracie seems to have adjusted to the pressure of senior-level international competition after a year of bugs, Agnes seems to still be struggling, both internationally and nationally.

All that said, I would love a team of Ashley, Gracie and Mirai/Christina/Angela

 

[jaylee]

I just checked the scores from London. A 175 score, achieved, by Goa and Nagasu this season, is what Sotnikove achived for 9th, with Osmond with a 176 in 8th. A 166 score, which is Agnes's all time international PB drops you down to about 11th just ahead of Meite. I just don't think sending someone to Sochi with a PB of 166 is the smartest move, and I hope Agnes is not held up again in third next year. I don't believe Gao or Nagasu have been held up in the last 3-4 years.

I'm not sure that personal bests is going to matter that much for the third spot. First and second are going to go to Wagner and Gold as long as neither implodes spectacularly (and maybe even then).

The third will be a matter of whoever skates the best at Nationals. In 2010, Ashley Wagner had a much better season than Mirai did leading into 2010 Nationals--she medaled at both of her events, qualified for the GPF, etc, But she fell in the SP at Nationals, Mirai did spectacularly, and that was it for Ashley. The USFSA sent Mirai--even though Mirai had had a disastrous 2008-2009 season and a weak fall GP, and Ashley had been better. I can't believe that the USFSA will be more picky or political about the third spot in 2014 than they did about the second spot in 2010.

Therefore, I don't see Zawadzki at a huge disadvantage versus someone like Gao based on comparing personal bests. However, Zawadzki will need to be clean in order to get that third spot, and right now, based on last season, it's more likely that Gao will go clean than Zawadzki. But next season is a whole 'nother ball game.

What's more interesting to me is if Gold can defeat Ashley next year at Nationals. It's early, but I think yes...

 

[Reginald]

I just checked the scores from London. A 175 score, achieved, by Goa and Nagasu this season, is what Sotnikove achived for 9th, with Osmond with a 176 in 8th. A 166 score, which is Agnes's all time international PB drops you down to about 11th just ahead of Meite. I just don't think sending someone to Sochi with a PB of 166 is the smartest move, and I hope Agnes is not held up again in third next year. I don't believe Gao or Nagasu have been held up in the last 3-4 years.

Ashley's International PB was 167.02 all the way up to the 2012 4CC.

Never say never.

 

[chuckm]

Part of Zawadzki's problem is that she is quite tall. Any little lean in a jump takeoff or landing can topple her like a tree. She's had some pretty strange falls on 2as this season.

 

[R.D.]

I didn't have a problem with Nagasu going in 2010 (I agreed with the decision, actually), since she was on her way UP and Wagner was on her way DOWN (as is usual for her). Even though Nagasu had been so-so earlier, she was significantly better at Nationals.

For 2014, I'm not so sure that Gold and Wagner are certain, although if they maintain their current levels they probably won't fall below 3rd anyway. But I still think anything can happen and I wouldn't say done deal just yet.

 

[ForeverFish]

I'm not sure that personal bests is going to matter that much for the third spot. First and second are going to go to Wagner and Gold as long as neither implodes spectacularly (and maybe even then).

The third will be a matter of whoever skates the best at Nationals. In 2010, Ashley Wagner had a much better season than Mirai did leading into 2010 Nationals--she medaled at both of her events, qualified for the GPF, etc, But she fell in the SP at Nationals, Mirai did spectacularly, and that was it for Ashley. The USFSA sent Mirai--even though Mirai had had a disastrous 2008-2009 season and a weak fall GP, and Ashley had been better. I can't believe that the USFSA will be more picky or political about the third spot in 2014 than they did about the second spot in 2010.

Therefore, I don't see Zawadzki at a huge disadvantage versus someone like Gao based on comparing personal bests. However, Zawadzki will need to be clean in order to get that third spot, and right now, based on last season, it's more likely that Gao will go clean than Zawadzki. But next season is a whole 'nother ball game.

What's more interesting to me is if Gold can defeat Ashley next year at Nationals. It's early, but I think yes...

Gao went clean(er) than Zawadzki at 2013 Nationals and ended up fifth to Zawadzki's third. But there may be some shuffling of the standings in the Olympic season...

I think that, as of right now, Wagner still has a considerable leg up on Gold. She's shown that, even without a clean 3-3 or 2A-3T, she can still defeat Gold in the SP and overall. Gold will need to develop better presentation with a GOOD choreographer (please!) during the off-season if she wants to challenge for US champion, because she won't be the crowd's or judges' favorite going in. For her part, if Wagner wants to hold onto the US title, she WILL NEED harder technical content. No ifs, ands, or buts.

 

[R.D.]

OTOH, Gold has beaten Wagner 2x in the FS. The only gap is the SP...once Gold begins to close that gap, Wagner's days as US #1 will be numbered.

 

[pangtongfan]

LOL at anyone thinking there is a chance Gold or Wagner wont be on the team. You can quote me now and save the link if you think there is a prayer you will be able to bring it up at U.S Nationals next year, but either Gold or Wagner will need to fall atleast 3 times (actual falls, not 3 falls worth of mistakes like I often refer to with Chan) to not make the team, no matter how well the rest all skate. It is a done deal period. Even in the unlikely event one was so bad at Nationals they finished out of the top 3 the USFSA would name that skater to the team anyway and just bump the 3rd place finisher.