State of American Ladies: 2013-14 Season

[chuckm]

I have my doubts about whether Czisny will be competitive. With her two surgeries, she will have been away from competition for a year and a half when the season starts in October, and at 26, getting fully back to where she was pre-injury is a tough proposition.

 

[mskater93]

Czsiny, AFAIR, only had 1 surgery for her hip. The second injury sustained in Appleton, WI require a doctor to pop her dislocation back into place, but no surgery was required. There WAS a 6 week recovery time from that, however.

 

[chuckm]

Sorry, but Alissa DID have surgery to fix her hip after she dislocated it.

 

[drivingmissdaisy]

I have my doubts about whether Czisny will be competitive. With her two surgeries, she will have been away from competition for a year and a half when the season starts in October, and at 26, getting fully back to where she was pre-injury is a tough proposition.

I don't disagree with you, but the America women are so weak after the top 2 that Alissa has a great shot is she's healthy. The bronze medalist this year fell once in the short and once in her 4-triple long. Alissa can outscore this result.

 

[chuckm]

We don't know what Alissa is capable of until we've seen her skate. If she is still slow, has no 3/3, struggles with lutz and flip, and can no longer do hyperextended spin positions, she's not going to be competitive.

 

[jaylee]

There's an on-going photo shoot for the USOC/NBC Olympics crew, and the US ladies invited are Ashley, Gracie, Agnes and Christina.

No mention yet of Courtney Hicks, Mirai Nagasu, or Alissa Czisny.

I'd be quite surprised if the third member of the Olympic team wasn't someone who was at this shoot.

 

[Pepe Nero]

I find this insulting to Carolina.....

I think it's a very apt comparison. Imagine if Czisny had had the opportunities that Kostner has had: being part of a national federation in which one basically has no competition. You get to go to Europeans (or Four Continents) and Worlds every year. (And, BTW, Kostner has, in her most challenged moments, been outscored by Marchei.) If Czisny had had these kinds of opportunities... well, the potential is hard to imagine (I think). Czisny at her best is, I believe, distinctly better than Kostner all things considered (by which I mean to emphasize that I think Kostner does have some important qualities in excess of Czisny). I would concede that Czisny's worst (2012 worlds) is worse than Kostner's, but that was due to undiagnosed injury.

I think Czisny has stated her intention to compete next season (though I can't cite a source -- I just remember reading this somewhere). I hope she does, and I hope she makes the Olympic team. I think she deserves it as long as she is decent at Nationals, as a reward for contributing some bright (very bright) spots to US ladies' figure skating in hard times. I think desert is relevant when one is talking about third, and even second, spots for the Olympic team. We're not talking about medals at that point, spots at competitions in the future, or "national glory."

(Let me clarify that I think Czisny, if she lands her jumps*, is a darkhorse medal contender at the 2014 Olympics and, even more so, Worlds -- i.e., giving her a spot on the team would not simply be a "gift" on the part of USFS. I think Czisny is the only US female skater about which one can plausibly say that, besides Wagner and Gold.)

*No one needs to tell me how unlikely (they think) this is.

 

[ForeverFish]

There's an on-going photo shoot for the USOC/NBC Olympics crew, and the US ladies invited are Ashley, Gracie, Agnes and Christina.

No mention yet of Courtney Hicks, Mirai Nagasu, or Alissa Czisny.

I'd be quite surprised if the third member of the Olympic team wasn't someone who was at this shoot.

Of course. The way the political game goes, it'll be ensured beforehand that the Olympic team is Ashley, Gracie, and Agnes/Christina--fans and casual viewers will more readily support them after seeing the shoots. Otherwise, USOC, the NBC Olympics committee, and USFSA would look foolish to spend money and effort on media summits that don't amount to anything later on.

ETA: drivingmissdaisy, I hate to say it, but I have to agree about Mirai. Her PB (190.15, set at the 2010 Olympics -- possibly the highest point of her career), has already been surpassed by Ashley and is just two points higher than Gracie's WTT score. Mirai's SP best (70.40) plus her FS best (129.68) would set her above the 200 mark, but she's not showing performances of that caliber on a consistent basis. I'm going to hold onto the tiniest sliver of hope for a comeback on the GP...but a total overhaul of her jumping technique and an evaporation of her UR issue seems, at this point, little more than a wish.

 

[ForeverFish]

(Let me clarify that I think Czisny, if she lands her jumps*, is a darkhorse medal contender at the 2014 Olympics and, even more so, Worlds -- i.e., giving her a spot on the team would not simply be a "gift" on the part of USFS. I think Czisny is the only US female skater about which one can plausibly say that, besides Wagner and Gold.)

*No one needs to tell me how unlikely (they think) this is.

:think:

Alissa's personal best is 182.25, which would have placed her eighth at the 2010 Olympics, fifth at 2011 Worlds (which she was), third at 2012 Worlds, and eighth at 2013 Worlds. Both Ashley and Gracie (a debut senior!) have higher PB's and SB's, and are stronger competitors all-around.

It's hard to say if Alissa will be in shape in time for US Nationals, but as it stands right now, her chances of medaling at the Olympics are effectively zero. You have the Big Three, Wagner and Gold, the Russians, Zijun Li, Suzuki, and Murakami all in the race. And where does that leave Alissa? She has nice spins and artistry, but mediocre jumps (even when she's on). I suppose that, if she were to qualify for and have the SOHL in Sochi, she could be in the top five or six there...but even that would require bad to disastrous performances from several others. Right now, I daresay that even Agnes and Christina could outskate Alissa.

 

[drivingmissdaisy]

(Let me clarify that I think Czisny, if she lands her jumps*, is a darkhorse medal contender at the 2014 Olympics and, even more so, Worlds -- i.e., giving her a spot on the team would not simply be a "gift" on the part of USFS. I think Czisny is the only US female skater about which one can plausibly say that, besides Wagner and Gold.)

*No one needs to tell me how unlikely (they think) this is.

Whether or not she lands her jumps she cannot medal. Alissa is not going to get great GOE on her jumps even when they are clean and she already gives up points on difficulty not doing a 3/3 or a 3A. She is the best spinner in the world but everyone gets +GOE on spins so she cannot build much of a lead on spins alone. Realistically, she isn't going to come back after two surgeries and perform at a level 20 points above her personal best, which she will likely need to medal.

 

[Pepe Nero]

:think:

Alissa's personal best is 182.25, which would have placed her eighth at the 2010 Olympics, fifth at 2011 Worlds (which she was), third at 2012 Worlds, and eighth at 2013 Worlds. Both Ashley and Gracie (a debut senior!) have higher PB's and SB's, and are stronger competitors all-around.

It's hard to say if Alissa will be in shape in time for US Nationals, but as it stands right now, her chances of medaling at the Olympics are effectively zero. You have the Big Three, Wagner and Gold, the Russians, Zijun Li, Suzuki, and Murakami all in the race. And where does that leave Alissa? She has nice spins and artistry, but mediocre jumps (even when she's on). I suppose that, if she were to qualify for and have the SOHL in Sochi, she could be in the top five or six there...but even that would require bad to disastrous performances from several others. Right now, I daresay that even Agnes and Christina could outskate Alissa.

I don't think I disagree with you. I don't think AC has a realistic chance at a medal at the 2014 Olympics. I just think it is not *crazy* to think it could happen, if AC is clean (jumps-wise) and either CK or MA totally falls apart. (Yuna Kim will win a medal no matter what she does, let's face it. She will not be *judged*, though maybe she deserves that.)

Comparisons across seasons are difficult. Judges and technical controllers clearly get more lenient as the Olympics approaches. Anyway it was never my point that AC would win a medal at the Olympics.

I suppose the main point I meant to make was this: the relevant question is: By what criteria ought we decide who gets the "luxury" third spot? My view is that it ought to go to AC (so long as she is decent at Nationals). (E.g., third place should not go to Zawadzki yet again, no matter how scintillating her SP is, if she can't get through her LP without at least two major errors.)

 

[FSGMT]

How fast will we reach the 100 pages? These US Ladies threads are just endless...

 

[jaylee]

(Yuna Kim will win a medal no matter what she does, let's face it. She will not be *judged*, though maybe she deserves that.)

I have no idea what this means. Yu-Na won't be judged? Though she deserves to be judged? :disapp: I guarantee you that if Yu-Na skates like Alissa Czisny did at 2012 Worlds, she will not win a medal. Yu-Na skates at a higher level more consistently than any other ladies skater out there, that's why she medals so often--but for whatever reason it leads to the illogical, bogus claim that she will "win a medal no matter what she does." Guess Yu-Na can put away her 3Lz/3T and massive triple flips away--she can win a medal no matter what!

I suppose the main point I meant to make was this: the relevant question is: By what criteria ought we decide who gets the "luxury" third spot? My view is that it ought to go to AC (so long as she is decent at Nationals). (E.g., third place should not go to Zawadzki yet again, no matter how scintillating her SP is, if she can't get through her LP without at least two major errors.)

I agree with you that it's a luxury spot since it's not going to go to a medal contender. I personally think it should go to the person who placed third at Nationals. If Alissa Czisny has a well-deserved third place (or higher), then she should get it. If Zawadzki or Gao earns at least third place or higher, it should go to one of them. Whether they do it by executing a clean SP and a flawed LP or the reverse remains to be seen.

I don't think that Alissa deserves it, per your other post, "as a reward for contributing some bright (very bright) spots to US ladies' figure skating in hard times." Alissa had one decent season, the 2010-2011 season, and that's it. 2011-2012 was uneven and ended disastrously. That's not enough to justify the reward of a precious Olympic spot.

There was a lot of flack given to Michelle Kwan for getting the third Olympic spot in 2006 essentially as a reward--that's how her petition was positioned, with the articles talking about how it was time for the sport to pay Michelle back for all that she had done for US ladies figure skating. We're talking Michelle Kwan, and we're talking about a third spot that she helped secure with Sasha Cohen at 2005 Worlds (that's when we took 3 spots for granted). While Alissa won't be petitioning and will be competing for a spot, I don't see the judges doing her any favors in getting into the top 3. She'll have to be at her best, and that's the bigger question to me--what is Alissa's current health and skating condition?

 

[drivingmissdaisy]

I personally think it should go to the person who placed third at Nationals. If Alissa Czisny has a well-deserved third place (or higher), then she should get it. If Zawadzki or Gao earns at least third place or higher, it should go to one of them. Whether they do it by executing a clean SP and a flawed LP or the reverse remains to be seen.

I agree with this. We can sit here and speculate whether the USFSA should promote one of the younger skaters with the 3rd spot or give it to a veteran, but the truth is that the bronze medalist will get the spot. Whichever skaters we like now have a good chance of being non-factors in the sport in two years so there's no point in strategizing who should go; let someone earn it.

 

[mskater93]

Olympic berths should never be GIVEN they should be EARNED. Sometimes, that earning is done through years of hard work and devotion and success at the upper echelon of the sport (ie, Kwan in 2006 or Kerrigan or Eldredge). FWIW, I want to see the skaters EARN it throughout this season. It's going to be Wagner and Gold and a surprise more than likely

 

[kwanatic]

Point is there aren't any ladies who have done enough to deserve a spot without earning it...that includes Ashley and Gracie IMO. No one should be gifted a spot to Sochi. No one has earned that right to say "You owe me."

If you want to go, you earn your spot. If you don't earn your spot, you shouldn't go.

Now that's not to say the judges won't help the favorites earn their spots by boosting scores and whatnot, but there isn't one person in that pool of ladies who deserves to go to Sochi based on merit alone.

 

[b-man]

it leads to the illogical, bogus claim that she will "win a medal no matter what she does."

I don't think that Alissa deserves it, per your other post, "as a reward for contributing some bright (very bright) spots to US ladies' figure skating in hard times." Alissa had one decent season, the 2010-2011 season, and that's it. 2011-2012 was uneven and ended disastrously. That's not enough to justify the reward of a precious Olympic spot.

I used to think Yuna was overscored a lot in the 2010 season. In the 2010 worlds in Torino, she had 3 major errors in the short, and 2 major errors in the long, and was "judged" the winner of the long over an almost clearn Mao. This year, Yuna was so clean, she deserved her large margin over Caro and Mao.

As far as the third spot, it should go to the skater with the third best chance at Sochi, not to a skater as a reward for the past, or to some future "star" to set them up for the next quad. The US actually has a chance of putting 3 skaters in the top 10 if that 3rd skater is at their best, so that third pick should not be squandered on a skater with no chance at a top 10 finish.

 

[chuckm]

Point is there aren't any ladies who have done enough to deserve a spot without earning it...that includes Ashley and Gracie IMO. No one should be gifted a spot to Sochi. No one has earned that right to say "You owe me."

If you want to go, you earn your spot. If you don't earn your spot, you shouldn't go.

Now that's not to say the judges won't help the favorites earn their spots by boosting scores and whatnot, but there isn't one person in that pool of ladies who deserves to go to Sochi based on merit alone.

Both Ashley and Gracie have the goods and the will to earn their places on the Olympic team. They certainly showed that at Worlds and WTT. Barring injury, I expect each of them to perform well at Nationals and secure a trip to Sochi. After those two, no other US lady so far has been as consistent a performer, so it's up in the air. The Grand Prix this fall should provide some clues....

 

[drivingmissdaisy]

Point is there aren't any ladies who have done enough to deserve a spot without earning it...that includes Ashley and Gracie IMO. No one should be gifted a spot to Sochi. No one has earned that right to say "You owe me."

If you want to go, you earn your spot. If you don't earn your spot, you shouldn't go.

Now that's not to say the judges won't help the favorites earn their spots by boosting scores and whatnot, but there isn't one person in that pool of ladies who deserves to go to Sochi based on merit alone.

Well certainly a year out, a lot can happen and no one has earned it. But if Ashley had this season next year and was injured at the GPF and had to withdraw from Nationals, I have no doubt she'd be picked for the team. But she needs to again prove she's the best next season.

 

[jaylee]

I used to think Yuna was overscored a lot in the 2010 season. In the 2010 worlds in Torino, she had 3 major errors in the short, and 2 major errors in the long, and was "judged" the winner of the long over an almost clearn Mao. This year, Yuna was so clean, she deserved her large margin over Caro and Mao.

But the only reason Yu-Na won a medal at 2010 Worlds making so many mistakes was because just about everyone made multiple major/minor mistakes--hence why there was so much controversy over 3rd place which could easily have gone to 4 skaters other than Laura Lepisto. Yu-Na wouldn't have won a medal at other competitions with those performances--she lucked out that she had one of her worst at a pretty crappy competition all around.

I would say that Yu-Na accidentally won the long over Mao due to Mao's downgraded 3A. It's not Yu-Na's fault that Mao's second 3A was downgraded and it lost so many points. Had it not been downgraded, Mao would've won the long easily. Mao had the appearance of having skated a greater performance than was rewarded by the judges since she appeared to have landed everything cleanly, but that downgrade was costly. At least Mao won as she deserved to, and Yu-Na did enough to get the silver.

As far as the third spot, it should go to the skater with the third best chance at Sochi, not to a skater as a reward for the past, or to some future "star" to set them up for the next quad. The US actually has a chance of putting 3 skaters in the top 10 if that 3rd skater is at their best, so that third pick should not be squandered on a skater with no chance at a top 10 finish.

Hmm, I think we're pretty lucky to have 2 skaters who can crack the top 10 in Sochi--I'm not sure who the third would be that could crack the top 10. Alissa, Mirai, Agnes, Christina, Courtney Hicks? It would be tough for any of them.