Can Evgeni Plushenko win the 2014 Olympic title?

[bestskate8]

If he skates clean in SP (likely) and clean in his FS (unlikely at this point), nobody will be able to touch him. I don't know if Daisuke (who's the only one who can match Chan on PCS) will have a FS with two rotated, clean quads by then given his struggles with it recently, and even if Plushenko/Hanyu go clean, their PCS won't be enough to catch a clean Chan. Maybe Fernandez can beat him if he matches his Euros performances, though it might take 2 quads in the SP for him to stay competitive with a clean Chan going into the FS.

Chan needs to do two quads and two 3A in lp, and one of the quad with 3-3, but if Plushenko will skate clean, Chan might need another quad, because he won't be able to match him in PCS, his skating is not mature to Plushenko's level yet. You need to watch them back to back to realize that.

Anyway Plushenko is still recovering from injury and it is too early to predict anything, even thought his Swan was amaizing this season at RN. We still might see it at team event. Plushenko will have two new programs. Looks like Chan doesn't have ability to learn two new programs every season, and it tells one a lot about the talent.

 

[venlac]

Chan needs to do two quads and two 3A in lp, and one of the quad with 3-3, but if Plushenko will skate clean, Chan might need another quad, because he won't be able to match him in PCS, his skating is not mature to Plushenko's level yet. You need to watch them back to back to realize that.

I agree.

I think clean Plushenko would get higher PCS than clean Patrick Chan.

 

[dorispulaski]

Thanks so much for the link to Ovchinnikov's performance That was amazing; what flying feet he had. So many skaters have skated to Russian folk music, and so very, very few can keep up with the speed of the music. I had never seen him before. Bobrin, however, I was lucky enough to see live at 1981 Worlds, and he has always been a favorite of mine.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Yuri_Ovchinnikov_(figure_skater)

Another Russian skater that has been forgotten, but who was an amazing skater, was Vladimir Kotin.

 

[plushyfan]

Thanks so much for the link to Ovchinnikov's performance That was amazing; what flying feet he had. So many skaters have skated to Russian folk music, and so very, very few can keep up with the speed of the music. I had never seen him before. Bobrin, however, I was lucky enough to see live at 1981 Worlds, and he has always been a favorite of mine.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Yuri_Ovchinnikov_(figure_skater)



Another Russian skater that has been forgotten, but who was an amazing skater, was Vladimir Kotin.

I loved the duet of Kotin and Debbie Thomas!!!! That was unforgettable!!!

 

[CanadianSkaterGuy]

Chan needs to do two quads and two 3A in lp, and one of the quad with 3-3, but if Plushenko will skate clean, Chan might need another quad, because he won't be able to match him in PCS, his skating is not mature to Plushenko's level yet. You need to watch them back to back to realize that

I agree.

I think clean Plushenko would get higher PCS than clean Patrick Chan.

Not at all. If both are clean, Chan will most definitely score higher PCS.

Plushenko's personal bests for PCS:
SP: 42.50 PCS (Euros 2012)
FS: 88.84 PCS (Euros 2012)
http://www.isuresults.com/bios/isufs_pb_00000124.htm

Chan's personal bests for PCS:
SP: 45.67 PCS (Worlds 2013)
FS: 92.70 PCS (Rostelcom 2012)
http://www.isuresults.com/bios/isufs_pb_00007980.htm

 

[drivingmissdaisy]

Not at all. If both are clean, Chan will most definitely score higher PCS.

Plushenko's personal bests for PCS:
SP: 42.50 PCS (Euros 2012)
FS: 88.84 PCS (Euros 2012)
http://www.isuresults.com/bios/isufs_pb_00000124.htm

Chan's personal bests for PCS:
SP: 45.67 PCS (Worlds 2013)
FS: 92.70 PCS (Rostelcom 2012)
http://www.isuresults.com/bios/isufs_pb_00007980.htm

I actually think in Sochi, EP's home turf, they would be even on PCS if both clean. If Plushenko participates, he will be one of the marquee names of the Olympics in Russia. Even with PCS being even, Chan has a big edge because of the GOE he gets on his elements. I think Chan would win this match-up, but on TES and not on PCS.

 

[shine]

I've said it earlier in this thread. I think it's Jeremy Abbott. Jeremy can express big variety of music with almost equally convincing skating to successfully highlight the best of that music. He could skate like a charming young man with inner power. He could also skate like a female ballerina (though I hate that).

I think Takahashi interpretes and expresses perfectly in certain narrow ranged music. It has become his style. A few ventures outside that narrow range, he was ordinary and sometimes he still used a part of that same style. My main complain is his fingers and his wrists. But his wrists suited perfectly in Blues for Klook.

I agree with this. I've long felt that Takahashi is not as versatile an artist that the majority seem to think he is and it's interesting that you pointed this out about this fingers and wrist usage - because it's one big pet peeve that I have with his presentation. It just feels somewhat unnatural and overly effeminate and he never varies the way he uses them no matter the program. That said, he's extremely good at styles that he does excel.

 

[CanadianSkaterGuy]

I actually think in Sochi, EP's home turf, they would be even on PCS if both clean. If Plushenko participates, he will be one of the marquee names of the Olympics in Russia. Even with PCS being even, Chan has a big edge because of the GOE he gets on his elements. I think Chan would win this match-up, but on TES and not on PCS.

Yeah, I've wondered how much a home crowd might boost Plushenko's PCS (as what likely happened in Chan's favour at Worlds), but the quality of Chan's elements might get higher GOE. Usually a clean Chan gets around mid 40's and above 90 on PCS, which Plushenko has yet to clear. But I think an SP with a 4T-3T from Plushenko these days could theoretically score about 44 points of PCS on Sochi turf. If both skate cleanly I don't think the Russian crowd will have a huge problem with Chan being slightly ahead going into the FS (since in a technical program, it makes sense for the skater with the better technical elements and skating skills to be placed ahead if two skaters execute the exact same content). If Plushenko is placed behind skaters who make major errors and skates clean himself, I might fear for the judges, lol. But Chan's clean programs will usually score around 95-96 points, and Plushenko's cleanest SP with a quad managed 91.5 points, so I can't imagine his PCS being boosted a whole 4 points higher (that's an extra 0.75 in each PCS category compared to Euros 2012). And considering Plushenko was practically clean in his Euros FS but didn't clear 90 points of PCS (88.84), makes me think that he's still at a disadvantage to Chan and Takahashi (even Fernandez has a higher personal best in the FS over Plushenko) who consistently clear 90 points, even when they make errors.

 

[venlac]

If Plushenko has free from the effects of injury and come back to the original form of his, I think he will not almostly fall, and most likely jumping machine among the top skaters of these days. The possibility that plushenko will have more mistakes than patrick chan will be very small. Of course, Maybe he will have much higher potential to do clean skate than Patrick Chan. judges would give higher rank to Plushenko than Patrick Chan in PCS.

IF he is free from injury in next season...

 

[yaya124]

Yeah, I've wondered how much a home crowd might boost Plushenko's PCS (as what likely happened in Chan's favour at Worlds), but the quality of Chan's elements might get higher GOE. Usually a clean Chan gets around mid 40's and above 90 on PCS, which Plushenko has yet to clear. But I think an SP with a 4T-3T from Plushenko these days could theoretically score about 44 points of PCS on Sochi turf. If both skate cleanly I don't think the Russian crowd will have a huge problem with Chan being slightly ahead going into the FS (since in a technical program, it makes sense for the skater with the better technical elements and skating skills to be placed ahead if two skaters execute the exact same content). If Plushenko is placed behind skaters who make major errors and skates clean himself, I might fear for the judges, lol. But Chan's clean programs will usually score around 95-96 points, and Plushenko's cleanest SP with a quad managed 91.5 points, so I can't imagine his PCS being boosted a whole 4 points higher (that's an extra 0.75 in each PCS category compared to Euros 2012). And considering Plushenko was practically clean in his Euros FS but didn't clear 90 points of PCS (88.84), makes me think that he's still at a disadvantage to Chan and Takahashi (even Fernandez has a higher personal best in the FS over Plushenko) who consistently clear 90 points, even when they make errors.

It makes no sense to compare scores from different competitions. You have to compare them when they are in the same competition where theoretically judges will have similar tendency of scoring. Do not bring up this year's EC since Plushenko did not skate cleanly which affected his PCS (which is normal by the way).

 

[CanadianSkaterGuy]

It makes no sense to compare scores from different competitions. You have to compare them when they are in the same competition where theoretically judges will have similar tendency of scoring. Do not bring up this year's EC since Plushenko did not skate cleanly which affected his PCS (which is normal by the way).

I didn't... I brought up last year's Euros where Plushenko skated his personal best. And you can't really compare them at the same competition either because the last time they competed was at Japan Open where both skated terribly... but you wouldn't use that competition to make a sweeping claim that "Takahashi will score 7 points higher PCS than Chan/Plushenko, or Buttle is currently a better skater than Chan/Plushenko".

(Also, I wouldn't use his Euros 2013 as an example of Plushenko's PCS capability anyways, since it was really high for the program he did. His PCS personal best - 42.50 - in the SP (Euros 2012) had essentially the same content he was hoping to execute in Euros 2013 - 3Z+3T, 3A, 3L. But he made a visible error on his lutz, his combo ended up being a simple 3L-3T (while other guys did 3F/3Z/4T-3T), and he fell on his 3A. And yet, his PCS was 40.36.)

 

[yaya124]

I didn't... I brought up last year's Euros where Plushenko skated his personal best. And you can't really compare them at the same competition either because the last time they competed was at Japan Open where both skated terribly... but you wouldn't use that competition to make a sweeping claim that "Takahashi will score 7 points higher PCS than Chan/Plushenko, or Buttle is currently a better skater than Chan/Plushenko".

(Also, I wouldn't use his Euros 2013 as an example of Plushenko's PCS capability anyways, since it was really high for the program he did. His PCS personal best - 42.50 - in the SP (Euros 2012) had essentially the same content he was hoping to execute in Euros 2013 - 3Z+3T, 3A, 3L. But he made a visible error on his lutz, his combo ended up being a simple 3L-3T (while other guys did 3F/3Z/4T-3T), and he fell on his 3A. And yet, his PCS was 40.36.)

I pointed out that you should not use his EC2013 program as comparison only because you have the tendency to bring it up. I also did not use JO's result as argument to compare these two skaters because I know both of them did not skate the best of them.

You are right that Plushenko's PCS comparing to last year is over scored. And of course all Chan's PCS are justified.

If you cannot distinguish my sarcasm it is OK. I only want to point out your way of comparing skaters is not so credible.

Anyway, as Chan is apparently the greatest skater ever, he will win the Olympics. As for Plushenko, as a fan, I just want to see his new programs because that would be his last two programs for competition.

 

[venlac]

I pointed out that you should not use his EC2013 program as comparison only because you have the tendency to bring it up. I also did not use JO's result as argument to compare these two skaters because I know both of them did not skate the best of them.

You are right that Plushenko's PCS comparing to last year is over scored. And of course all Chan's PCS are justified.

If you cannot distinguish my sarcasm it is OK. I only want to point out your way of comparing skaters is not so credible.

Anyway, as Chan is apparently the greatest skater ever, he will win the Olympics. As for Plushenko, as a fan, I just want to see his new programs because that would be his last two programs for competition.

Is it also sarcasm? we must not even consider that, Because of the respect for the sport.
How skater who had shamful winning the most can be considered the greatest?

 

[CanadianSkaterGuy]

I pointed out that you should not use his EC2013 program as comparison only because you have the tendency to bring it up. I also did not use JO's result as argument to compare these two skaters because I know both of them did not skate the best of them.

You are right that Plushenko's PCS comparing to last year is over scored. And of course all Chan's PCS are justified.

If you cannot distinguish my sarcasm it is OK. I only want to point out your way of comparing skaters is not so credible.

Anyway, as Chan is apparently the greatest skater ever, he will win the Olympics. As for Plushenko, as a fan, I just want to see his new programs because that would be his last two programs for competition.

I never used his Euros 2013 in the post you had commented about and specifically wasn't going to because I was referring to Plushenko's personal best. Using Plushenko's Euros SP as an example for scoring potential would be like using Chan's Worlds 2013 or Japan Open.

I don't think his PCS is particularly overscored in Euros of last year, because his programs have improved since the Olympics. I even said that if you take his Euros 2012 SP and put a 4T-3T instead, then he might score mid 40's. But his FS score is probably maxed out, since he did everything at Euros 2012 and scored a PB, but a PB that is still 10 points lower than Chan's. And since the topic was who would win if both skated cleanly, those stats would suggest that Chan would win. Even if Plushenko added a second quad in his FS, that wouldn't likely make up the 10-point deficit, theoretically. Also, Plushenko hasn't skated a clean FS with two quads in a while, so that also makes his ability to challenge the top guys questionable. If he does have an advantage, it's home ice, and that could come into play.

I think Chan has a shot to win the Olympics because of his difficulty and choreography, and his clout as a 3-time reigning World Champion going into it. I still think given Chan's lack of consistency as of late, and the improvement of Fernandez/Hanyu, that he'll be given a run for his money and it won't be a case of 2011 where he absolutely dominates.

Like you I just want to see clean programs from all skaters, particularly Plushenko being on home ice. I don't think he'll win, but I don't think the competition would be the same without him either.

 

[let`s talk]

I think Chan has a shot to win the Olympics because of his difficulty and choreography, and his clout as a 3-time reigning World Champion going into it. I still think given Chan's lack of consistency as of late, and the improvement of Fernandez/Hanyu, that he'll be given a run for his money and it won't be a case of 2011 where he absolutely dominates.

Funny to see how CSG keeps bringing as "shots for medals" in Sochi only Canadians or pupils of Canadians. All the rest are just bad... Japanese or Russians.... If they are not coached by a Canadian, they are bad. The "reason" will be always found . And then some people get upset when Canadian posters are usually not taken seriously. Because no one wants to deal with nationalistic bias and no respect to other skaters that you guys keep demonstrating. Otherwise, you wouldn't advocate for shameful wins of Chan. No, dear CSG, if Chan has a shot in Sochi, it's only because of his currupted status of a boo-ed champion, with two of his three WC titles more than questioned by fs community, to put it politely.

 

[gmyers]

Plushenko had a 5/3 layout of jumps in euros 2012 and did 3a-3t and not 4/3. Obviously most skaters view maxing out fs score as doing a 3/5 layout. Plushenko was 5 seconds from a 4/4 layout. 5 seconds!!! That would have given him maybe a point more? Or less than one? Just like 2010 it may be impossible for plushenko to truly maximize. But i was just looking at the schedule at the Olympics again and just don't think it's doable for plushenko at all. Just don't see it!

 

[Jaana]

Most artistic of all time: Curry, Cousins, Cranston, Browning, Yagudin. That's in no particular order.

I would add Takahashi and remove Yagudin.

 

[yaya124]

Is it also sarcasm? we must not even consider that, Because of the respect for the sport.
How skater who had shamful winning the most can be considered the greatest?

Of course

 

[plushyfan]

Plushy started the preparing, he is in Kislovodsk- one of Russian Olympic bases-.
Mishin was happy, because Plu wasn't too fat after the vacation. http://vk.com/wall181448209?w=wall181448209_344/all But I'm skeptic. Maybe without surgery he could have done it..

 

[CanadianSkaterGuy]

Plushenko had a 5/3 layout of jumps in euros 2012 and did 3a-3t and not 4/3. Obviously most skaters view maxing out fs score as doing a 3/5 layout. Plushenko was 5 seconds from a 4/4 layout. 5 seconds!!! That would have given him maybe a point more? Or less than one? Just like 2010 it may be impossible for plushenko to truly maximize. But i was just looking at the schedule at the Olympics again and just don't think it's doable for plushenko at all. Just don't see it!

It probably would have been just about 1 point extra since he got +GOE on his series, and BV for his 3Z+2T+2L would get 0.91 points bonus. But you're right.. if he's 5 seconds away from an extra 1.3 points he really should choreograph it to benefit that. He could benefit much more if he pushed his 3A+3T to the latter half (it'd get about 1.4 points more... the positive GOE on an axel is greater than a lutz). I'm thinking if he wants to be technically solid for Sochi, he'd need to put 2 quads up front, and then put one of the axels in the 2nd half (ideally the combo). Even though the quad takes more energy, his lutz has actually been giving him greater grief (same with Hanyu), so two quads instead of two lutzes might make more sense, points and execution-wise.