State of American Ladies: 2013-14 Season

[ForeverFish]

Unless Alissa returns to her 2011 form by 2014 Nationals, it'll be nigh on impossible for her to beat a healthy Ashley, who's slowly been inching up on PCS and may finally get a solid 3-3 (which she will most definitely need if she wants to contend for an Olympic medal).

But can a mostly clean, semi-healthy Alissa beat Gracie at full strength?

 

[drivingmissdaisy]

But can a mostly clean, semi-healthy Alissa beat Gracie at full strength?

IMO she cannot. Gracie gets so many points on the jumps; not only on difficulty but also GOE. For me, Gracie gets PCS marks that are a bit generous but the fact is she does get solid artistic scores. So Gracie isn't giving away many points anywhere, whereas Alissa will likely land 2-3 fewer jumps and what she does land won't get the same GOE.

 

[mskater93]

Gracie gets good PCS based on the fact that she's fast, has very nice ice coverage, is a good multidirectional skater, and because of these things seems to project well (ie skates "big" compared to some of the other first year seniors like Li and Tuktamysheva). Yes, these are all areas she needs to improve to become a medal contender on the World stage, but she has a really good foundation both in the air and on the ice to be the American lady in the very near future.

 

[kwanatic]

IMO she cannot. Gracie gets so many points on the jumps; not only on difficulty but also GOE. For me, Gracie gets PCS marks that are a bit generous but the fact is she does get solid artistic scores. So Gracie isn't giving away many points anywhere, whereas Alissa will likely land 2-3 fewer jumps and what she does land won't get the same GOE.

I think Gracie will beat a clean Alissa in TES but if Alissa has a strong performance the judges will boost her PCS to keep her close. Can she beat Gracie? I think she can by a narrow margin but Gracie would have to make mistakes (which she often does so that's not a far-fetched situation)...the flip side of that is Alissa would have to be very close to her 2011 form. I don't see 2012 Alissa beating Gracie even if Gracie makes mistakes.

I do think a solid performance from Alissa will be held up over nearly everyone else (excluding Ashley and Gracie). The judges love her and would like to see her go to Sochi if only to have the experience before she retires. I keep saying I don't want to see Alissa held up over anyone and I do mean that...to an extent. If nationals ends up being somewhat of a splatfest and Alissa is able to hold up decently, I would be okay with her receiving that 3rd spot.

In a way she's earned it. Think about it: prior to Ashley's hot streak last year, Alissa was the only US lady to win gold at any GP event since Kimmie in 2007 and the only US lady to medal at the GPF since Sasha won silver back in 2003, and it was a gold medal to boot. As odd as it is to say, Alissa carried the US ladies on the international scene by herself for quite a while. Ashley, Rachael and Mirai chipped in with silver and bronze medals over the years but none of them won gold (prior to Ashley's gold streak last year).

After watching Alissa's Skating Lesson interview, I can admit I now have a soft spot for her. I would like to see her make it to the Olympics...but she can't do what she did at nationals in 2010 and completely tank and expect the judges to bail her out 100%. She has to deliver on some level. I'll keep my fingers crossed for her.

 

[R.D.]

Alissa carried the US ladies on the international scene by herself for quite a while.

If by "quite a while" you mean 2 months, then perhaps...

 

[chuckm]

I doubt USFS judges will hold Alissa up if she doesn't deliver a clean performance. Alissa turns 26 next month and IMO she will likely retire after this season if she makes the Olympic team. Alissa is the past, and younger skaters are the future.

 

[kwanatic]

If by "quite a while" you mean 2 months, then perhaps...

No, I actually mean about 3 years. For those 3 years she consistently meadaled at her GP events and never placed below 4th. Until her injury before the GPF she was a consistent competitor in the sense that she placed well even if she didn't skate that well. I'm not a huge Alissa sympathizer (I've trashed her a zillion times before) but I do believe in giving credit where credit is due. Despite her headcasey-ness Alissa did well on the GP...

I agree with the idea that this is Alissa's last hoorah and if she isn't looking at least halfway competitive I doubt the judges will throw her a lifeline. However, aside from Ashley, Gracie and maybe Christina and Mirai (on a good day), none of the other US girls have any kind of rep with the judges...Alissa does though. Even with watered down content (assuming she's able to hit most of it) she'd end up placing better than most of the newer girls. Alissa is the Korpi/Lepisto of the US...lesser content but still capable of scoring well. The US judges know this...that's why I say if she's decent at nationals she'll have a shot at that 3rd spot.

 

[96skiluvr]

If by "quite a while" you mean 2 months, then perhaps...

No that entire 2010-2011 scene, and the beginning of the 2011-2012 scene

 

[tulosai]

I doubt USFS judges will hold Alissa up if she doesn't deliver a clean performance. Alissa turns 26 next month and IMO she will likely retire after this season if she makes the Olympic team. Alissa is the past, and younger skaters are the future.

I think she will retire after this season either way. With the injury, especially (and even without it) she cannot truly think she has another 4 year cycle in her and she has done pretty much everything else there is to be done but go to the Olys.

 

[ForeverFish]

Gracie gets good PCS based on the fact that she's fast, has very nice ice coverage, is a good multidirectional skater, and because of these things seems to project well (ie skates "big" compared to some of the other first year seniors like Li and Tuktamysheva). Yes, these are all areas she needs to improve to become a medal contender on the World stage, but she has a really good foundation both in the air and on the ice to be the American lady in the very near future.

If the Big 3 retire immediately after the Sochi Olympics, Gracie shouldn't have a problem getting on the World podium, provided she's clean. If they decide to stay on for a last Worlds, then she probably won't medal, but she should be able to place ahead of Wagner for sure.

Considering Li and Tuktamysheva...has there ever been a legitimate case in which a senior lady who skated "small" learned to adequately skate "big"? I'm thinking that it's a skill that you have to acquire early, like Gracie and Yuna clearly did.

 

[R.D.]

No that entire 2010-2011 scene, and the beginning of the 2011-2012 scene

OK. Let's try it like this.

The original statement said that Czisny was the lone carrier of US women for "quite a while". Her peak as a skater was in the period you mention above, so let's examine this a bit closer.

Czisny's placements on the 2010-11 GP were: 1st at SC, 3rd at TEB, then 1st at GPF.

But she wasn't the only medalist on the GP that year:

- Flatt also had podium finishes: 2nd at SA and 2nd at NHK, qualifying for GPF.

- Nagasu was 2nd at TEB that year, placing AHEAD of Czisny there.

- Wagner picked up her (only) medal at COR, a bronze.

* However, at GPF, Czisny was 1st while Flatt limped in last place. I can see the case here.

Czisny did well, but (perhaps with the exception of the GPF) I dispute that she carried US women BY HERSELF in that period...because she didn't.

Now, let's look at Four Continents 2011. Nagasu, Flatt and Czisny were our representatives that year. They went 3, 4, 5 in that order. That's right, Czisny was the LOWEST placer of the three in 5th. So here, too, I dispute that she carried US ladies because.....well, she didn't.

* At 2011 Worlds, I can see the case again, as Czisny was the lone top 10 finisher (5th) while Flatt failed to land in the top 10. Still, even with that being said, it's not a medal. But this event and the GPF are the only two events of the season I see the statement being valid. Two months...December 2010 and March 2011

Then, you mention the start of 2011-12. Let's look at the results:

Czisny: 1st at SA, 3rd at TEB. Then, a tumble to 5th at GPF (which was last that year since Asada WD)

Ignoring the GPF, the other US women medalists were:

Wagner (3rd at SC)

Nagasu (2nd at COC)

So, the case here is a bit stronger than in 2010 given that Czisny was the lone US qualifier for the GPF, but still, after winning it last year she couldn't even medal the next. She was already falling - FAST - and the Worlds disaster was still 3 months away! She carried US ladies alright...right to the bottom of the barrel!

 

[drivingmissdaisy]

Considering Li and Tuktamysheva...has there ever been a legitimate case in which a senior lady who skated "small" learned to adequately skate "big"? I'm thinking that it's a skill that you have to acquire early, like Gracie and Yuna clearly did.

Michelle Kwan

 

[R.D.]

Alissa is the Korpi/Lepisto of the US...lesser content but still capable of scoring well.

Actually...personally, I would argue that currently Wagner seems a much better fit to that role (womp womp!)

 

[ForeverFish]

Michelle Kwan

Sorry, I should have been more specific. MK entered the senior ranks at 12 and was already skating "big" by the time she started challenging for international medals. She was World champion before the age that Li and Tukt are now. For a senior elite lady, sixteen is almost too late to learn to skate with Yuna or Gracie's ice coverage.

This was an awkwardly phrased response, but what I'm really getting at is this: Have there been any notable instances of senior ladies significantly expanding their ice coverage in their late teens?

 

[chuckm]

IMO, Alissa's competitive results are more like the Finnish ladies than Wagner's are. Wagner is FAR, FAR more consistent than either Korpi or Lepisto. The Finnish ladies usually have done well at Euros where there is limited top level competition, but at Worlds they have often struggled in either the SP or the FS. Lepisto won her one bronze World medal in an especially weak competition.

 

[Victura]

So, the case here is a bit stronger than in 2010 given that Czisny was the lone US qualifier for the GPF, but still, after winning it last year she couldn't even medal the next. She was already falling - FAST - and the Worlds disaster was still 3 months away! She carried US ladies alright...right to the bottom of the barrel!

She was already injured at GPF that year, with her calf injury as a result of compensating for her undiagnosed hip problem.

 

[Icey]

I doubt USFS judges will hold Alissa up if she doesn't deliver a clean performance. Alissa turns 26 next month and IMO she will likely retire after this season if she makes the Olympic team. Alissa is the past, and younger skaters are the future.

I think she will retire even if she doesn't make the Olympic team.

 

[IndependentObserver]

It's so difficult to say one US Lady has led the pack this last quad. Flatt started off 10-11 well, but faded by worlds. Alissa had a great 10-11 season by far, and was the most consistent up until the GPF 2011. Mirai had a few great results but not spectacular (and I love her). Ashley really only came on strong at the 12 US Championships/4CC's/Worlds...and then a wonderful past season. Alissa 'led the pack' for the first year and a half, then Ashley picked up the role for the next year and a half. Of course, Gracie has added to the mix this past year.

As far as Skate America assignments, I think it will be Wagner/Cesario/Hicks. They could give Alissa a host pick, but I think they'd rather give her more time to recover. Skate Canada is just a week later, and she's always done well there. At SA, I see Asada getting the top three seed, Wagner coming from the 4-6 pool, Sotnikova from the 7-9 group (Osmond will get SC and Li Cup of China as host pics at the following two GP's), and Meite from the 10-12 placings. Marchei and Imai train in Detroit, so they're obvious choices and aren't considered a huge threat to medal here. That leaves two spots open for non host picks. Perhaps a Helgesson sister or Leonova, who are guaranteed at least 1 GP.

 

[R.D.]

IMO, Alissa's competitive results are more like the Finnish ladies than Wagner's are. Wagner is FAR, FAR more consistent than either Korpi or Lepisto. The Finnish ladies usually have done well at Euros where there is limited top level competition, but at Worlds they have often struggled in either the SP or the FS. Lepisto won her one bronze World medal in an especially weak competition.

Viewed from THAT angle, I can agree...but in terms of lesser tech content scoring well, I stand by my previous statement.

______

The great thing about now is that (knock on wood!!!) we have TWO capable skaters, perhaps for the first time since Meissner/Hughes in 2006-2007, a duo that can comfortably place in the top 10 and take pressure off one specific lady to "get it done". Honestly, until Wagner this year I thought the 2008ers were all doomed or "cursed" so to speak. I didn't think we'd get the 3rd spot back...I figured history would repeat itself and Wagner would fall apart after Gold got our hopes up...it might have been Gold and other up and comer to do it post-Olys once all the 2008ers (including Czisny) retired.

 

[mskater93]

This was an awkwardly phrased response, but what I'm really getting at is this: Have there been any notable instances of senior ladies significantly expanding their ice coverage in their late teens?

Angela Nikodinov did.