Can Evgeni Plushenko win the 2014 Olympic title?

[let`s talk]

Then by the same token, we can't say that Plushenko will be in Sochi as clean as he was in Euros 2012 (even though everyone refers to that as evidence of how solid he will be come Sochi, in spite of weaker performances and injury since then). And that competition even happened before the 2012 4CC competition.

Haha. He didn't figure out that it was his words about Chan twisted the other way around . It's unbelievable how someone can be so slow.

Also IIRC, a lot of silver medalists and bronze medalists have fallen or made errors

Plu didn't. The last time he was a gold medalist, at Euro-2012, he didn't fall and he made all the content he planned in both progs.

Who are "a lot"? PChan is the only holy cow homologated by ISU who falls, makes errors and still ends sup with gold or silver, like with 4 falls at the recent stupid event called "WTT".

Are you sure Chan won't need 4 quads and 2 triple axels?

Ha! What an arrogance to say that only Chan has the right to zamboni the ice with his butt but all the others need 5 quads to beat his Majesty of the Butt Era.

 

[CanadianSkaterGuy]

Can Kevin Reynolds medal in Sochi?

I think he can if a few of the others bomb and he produces a FS like his 4CC (keep in mind that his SP had both UR quads, so his total score could have been well over 255). His SP from Worlds was decent and puts him in the hunt and his base value in his FS (being the highest of the bunch, other than maybe Fernandez) really allows him to surpass other in his FS. It's unlikely that he will medal, but he'll certainly challenge for bronze.

bestskate8 is almost as visibly pro Plushenko as CanadianSkaterGuy is outrageously pro Chan/anti Plushenko.

I don't really have to defend myself, particularly when you've been far more anti-Chan than I've been anti-Plushenko, but I've said positive and negative things about both Chan and Plushenko. It's not "anti-Plushenko" and "pro-Chan" if I counter somebody saying something outrageous as Chan needs 3 quads and 2 triple axels to defeat a Plushenko with 1 quad. I acknowledge things like Plushenko having greater presence on the ice, excellent jumping consistency (moreso in the past than now), and having vastly improved his choreography since 2010. But I also acknowledge Chan still having better skating skills, harder jump layout, better spins and better movements and choreography in between elements. There are other posters on this board who are more on the absolute ends of the spectrum when it comes to loving or hating certain skaters. Obviously I like Chan more than Plushenko, but that doesn't mean I don't criticize things about Chan nor laud things about Plushenko.

 

[CanadianSkaterGuy]

Plu didn't. The last time he was a gold medalist, at Euro-2012, he didn't fall and he made all the content he planned in both progs.

PChan is the only holy cow homologated by ISU who falls, makes errors and still ends sup with gold or silver

Again, if you read properly, you would see this was in reference to past Olympic silver and bronze medalists having errors - e.g. Plushenko "zamboni-ing the ice with his butt" in his 2002 SP and having a stepout and doubling a 3S in his LP and "still ends up with silver" - with the point being, if the clean gold medalist hadn't skated (Kulik, Yagudin, Plushenko in 2006), the winner would have been a skater who had errors in either their SP, LP, or both.

 

[gmyers]

Chan does 2 quds and 1 3A in the FS and 1 quad and 1 3a in the SP and shows that he can fall a lot and still win because of the points available for when you rotate the planned triple or quad. But if Chan is going to beat anybody who is clean in both SP or LP he may have to introduce that quad salchow or something as some more insurance against his frequent falling all the time that has made the last two worlds pretty close. What may have worked at worlds may not work at the Olympics. Though it is wrong to think that because of all the people who said "who cares if quads weren't necessary for success to 2008 or 2009 worlds Vancouver judges wont let men get away with being without a quad" but they did and they could allow Chan to fall 2 or 3 or 4 times and still win. So just like him being "clean" didn't matter in 2012 and 2013 it may not matter in 2014 because judges have absolutely decided his pcs is always superior no matter how he skates against anybody in any competition!

Bringing up how Plushenko lost to Lysacek when Lysacek had no quads and plushenko had 2 doesn't really reflect the radical overhaul the scoring system had that added value back to jumps and the quad in particular.

 

[let`s talk]

Can Kevin Reynolds medal in Sochi?

No one cares about medaling. The Oly Gold is the only real thing that matters.

Can Ten NOT win in Sochi?
-Sure. Because in this case Canada doesn't need to edit its school textbooks with the new line that Kazakhstan is not Russia anymore.

Can Javi NOT win in Sochi?
-Sure. Spain is a bankrupt country. Therefore it doesn't make sense to waste a gold Oly medal in the land where this sport won't be promoted anyway.

Can Hanyu NOT win in Sochi?
-Sure. He will be used by SC the same way as he was last season: to humiliate his elder team-mate and the real PChan's rival. When Sochi comes, Orser will make sure that his jumper's knee or whatever health condition will worsen just in time. Then Uncle Brian will say that Yuzu overtrained himself.

Can Daisuke NOT win in Sochi?
-Sure. His fans will pay for all tickets anyway. J-media will rant how old he is at the age of 27yo, which alone could be sued somewhere in the west. But JSF is dumb. Japanese rivals of PChan will be removed by J-hands.

Can Chan NOT win in Sochi?
-Sure. IOC will threaten 100yo ISU VIPs of kicking out the figure skating of Olympic program if the zamboni wins. The 3rd scandal a la SLC or Vancouver is not possible. Therefore PChan will fashionable be "injuried" at the Stupid Team Event and will withdraw from Men's competiton. SC will say to save his face that PChan didn't win in Sochi simply because he didn't compete.

Can Plu NOT win in Sochi?
-Sure. His Israeli docs are in facts agents of CSI and Mossad who inserted the fake disc in his spinal that will get unscrewed on the day of FS as a revenge of all discrimination that Jews had to suffer n Russia since the times of Ivan the Terrible.


(be continued)

 

[CanadianSkaterGuy]

Chan does 2 quds and 1 3A in the FS and 1 quad and 1 3a in the SP and shows that he can fall a lot and still win because of the points available for when you rotate the planned triple or quad. But if Chan is going to beat anybody who is clean in both SP or LP he may have to introduce that quad salchow or something as some more insurance against his frequent falling all the time that has made the last two worlds pretty close. What may have worked at worlds may not work at the Olympics. Though it is wrong to think that because of all the people who said "who cares if quads weren't necessary for success to 2008 or 2009 worlds Vancouver judges wont let men get away with being without a quad" but they did and they could allow Chan to fall 2 or 3 or 4 times and still win. So just like him being "clean" didn't matter in 2012 and 2013 it may not matter in 2014 because judges have absolutely decided his pcs is always superior no matter how he skates against anybody in any competition!

Bringing up how Plushenko lost to Lysacek when Lysacek had no quads and plushenko had 2 doesn't really reflect the radical overhaul the scoring system had that added value back to jumps and the quad in particular.

True, but who's to say Lysacek wouldn't have attempted quads if there was greater value attributed to it (having been capable of executing them before).

I don't think Chan needs the quad salchow as insurance, and it might be a liability since he's not particularly consistent with it. He already has 5 jumping passes that are capable of getting double digits with GOE. It would be more of an issue if he didn't land his quads moreso than mistakes on his 2A or a spin. The lutz is an occasional issue, and I'm hoping he will sort that out. The 3A has been his Achilles heel and is the only major hurdle (other than maintaining his focus throughout). He should probably take out some of the transitions before his 3Z and 3A. He's managed to easily outscore everyone when he has skated clean with his current jump content, so he should focus on making that clean. Really, Javier has a chance to surpass him in the freeskate due to technical content but won't come close in the SP, Hanyu has a chance to surpass him in the SP (or nip at his heels) and if he has a clean free with 2 quads he might beat Chan if Chan makes an error.

Chan hasn't won major competitions with 3 or 4 falls in a while (not to mention it's only happened two times ever), and the rest of the field is much improved since so he can't afford errors (unless they bomb like at Worlds 2013). He only won twice this season and lost thrice, so I think people crowing that he can fall 3 or 4 times is unsubstantiated (not to mention with wins these people tend to disregard a strong SP or other skaters' errors). When he falls he's placed behind other skaters in the segment, and is especially lower if he doubles or doesn't fully rotate jumps. It's resulted in a Skate Canada silver, GPF bronze, and losing the WTT.

 

[let`s talk]

Again, if you read properly, you would see this was in reference to past Olympic silver and bronze medalists having errors - e.g. Plushenko "zamboni-ing the ice with his butt" in his 2002 SP and having a stepout and doubling a 3S in his LP and "still ends up with silver"

Again, of you read properly, you would see that this was the reference to past wins of His Majesty of Butt Era over better skated guys. He is the only homologated by ISU holy cow who has carte blanche on that. Plu didn't steal anyone's medals. It's PChan's speed.

 

[let`s talk]

But if Chan is going to beat anybody who is clean in both SP or LP he may have to introduce that quad salchow or something as some more insurance against his frequent falling all the time that has made the last two worlds pretty close.

Forget it. He already spoke of himself is "an Olympic champion". Making it sounds like his OGM is already in his pocket. I don't remember any skater in any segments of fs who would be so disrespectful to rivals and fans, not saying abour judges. He thinks his OGM is his as fact. Then what makes you think that he will bother to challenge anything new if his medal is already granted.

 

[gmyers]

True, but who's to say Lysacek wouldn't have attempted quads if there was greater value attributed to it (having been capable of executing them before).

I don't think Chan needs the quad salchow as insurance, and it might be a liability since he's not particularly consistent with it. He already has 5 jumping passes that are capable of getting double digits with GOE. It would be more of an issue if he didn't land his quads moreso than mistakes on his 2A or a spin. The lutz is an occasional issue, and I'm hoping he will sort that out. The 3A has been his Achilles heel and is the only major hurdle (other than maintaining his focus throughout). He should probably take out some of the transitions before his 3Z and 3A. He's managed to easily outscore everyone when he has skated clean with his current jump content, so he should focus on making that clean. Really, Javier has a chance to surpass him in the freeskate due to technical content but won't come close in the SP, Hanyu has a chance to surpass him in the SP (or nip at his heels) and if he has a clean free with 2 quads he might beat Chan if Chan makes an error.

Chan hasn't won major competitions with 3 or 4 falls in a while (not to mention it's only happened two times ever), and the rest of the field is much improved since so he can't afford errors (unless they bomb like at Worlds 2013). He only won twice this season and lost thrice, so I think people crowing that he can fall 3 or 4 times is unsubstantiated (not to mention with wins these people tend to disregard a strong SP or other skaters' errors). When he falls he's placed behind other skaters in the segment, and is especially lower if he doubles or doesn't fully rotate jumps. It's resulted in a Skate Canada silver, GPF bronze, and losing the WTT.

The quad salchow wouldn't necessarily have to be landed. As long it was a fully rotated fall it may help to include in the program. Landing would be a great bonus but increasing that base value would be the purpose and getting quad salchow fall value. I said 3 or 4 maybe but certainly 2 is quite possible and if those falls are on a quad toe and quad salchow that is 14 points. So 2 falls or more is possible for success but I am fine with that. Because if the falls are not rewarded the jumps wont exist.

Forget it. He already spoke of himself is "an Olympic champion". Making it sounds like his OGM is already in his pocket. I don't remember any skater in any segments of fs who would be so disrespectful to rivals and fans, not saying abour judges. He thinks his OGM is his as fact. Then what makes you think that he will bother to challenge anything new if his medal is already granted.

This is why I did mention that it is possible that he doesn't have to improve at all from worlds 2012 or 2013 to win the Olympics. In fact he could do a little worse maybe if he does anything to increase his base value!! It is so true that he is so presumptuous about being the winner!

 

[Mathman]

No one cares about medaling. The Oly Gold is the only real thing that matters.

Oh, I don't agree with that at all. True, adding your name to the almanac alongside Wolfgang Schwartz and Manfred Schnelldorfer is cool. But I think Mr. and Mrs. Reynolds would be thrilled if their boy Kevin won a prize at Sochi.

The point of the Olympics (in contrast to the World championship) is to represent your country. I think the third American girl, for instance, would be thrilled to do so. March in the opening ceremonies. Cheer her teammates on in the team competition. Have a romantic fling with an Italian alpine skier. And she might make the top ten! :yes:

 

[pangtongfan]

I don't really have to defend myself

Obviously you feel otherwise, as you wouldnt have bothered with that long winded sermon otherwise. Anyway dont let me detract any from your daily 100 post trolling hobby, carry on.

 

[CanadianSkaterGuy]

Obviously you feel otherwise, as you wouldnt have bothered with that long winded sermon otherwise. Anyway dont let me detract any from your daily 100 post trolling hobby, carry on.

Well, clearly a troll like you felt the need to comment on my outrageousness in the first place. But it's really sweet of you to be so cognizant and concerned of me.

 

[CanadianSkaterGuy]

Again, of you read properly, you would see that this was the reference to past wins of His Majesty of Butt Era over better skated guys. He is the only homologated by ISU holy cow who has carte blanche on that. Plu didn't steal anyone's medals. It's PChan's speed.

Well, arguably, Goebel was robbed of the silver in SLC. He was superior to Plushenko certainly in the SP where Plushenko fell, and he thoroughly outjumped Plushenko in the LP. Plushenko's presentation was better but certainly shouldn't have been so much better to have denied Goebel a higher placement (the judges certainly robbed Goebel in the technical marks, one judge giving Goebel a 5.6 with 3 quads and just a step out on the second 3A, and another giving Plushenko a 5.9 with a stepout and a doubled jump). Even in the SP - the technical program - some judges gave him 3rd place ordinals with a fall over Goebel's clean 4S+3T/3A/3F program.

 

[let`s talk]

Well, arguably, Goebel was robbed of the silver in SLC.

"Arguably" by whom? Some online trolls like yourself don't count. Figure skating community doesn't question the SLC Men's results. They hate Nice and London results in Men where Chan stole two World titles from other better skated guys.


Are you sue you are not an employee of RusFed? I don't remember any other poster who kept me busy with typing the stuff about Chan as the reply on your stuff about Plu.

 

[CanadianSkaterGuy]

"Arguably" by whom? Some online trolls like yourself don't count. Figure skating community doesn't question the SLC Men's results. They hate Nice and London results in Men where Chan stole two World titles from other better skated guys.

Are you sue you are not an employee of RusFed? I don't remember any other poster who kept me busy with typing the stuff about Chan as the reply on your stuff about Plu.

"Arguably" based off of the technical superiority of Goebel's programs, which even an artistically superior FS by Plushenko should not have overcome. Look at the jumps and you'll see Goebel was immensely more ambitious/difficult.

Goebel SP: 4S+3T, 3A, 3F
Plushenko SP: 4T(<< fall), 3A, 3Z(no combination)

Goebel FS: 3Z, 4S+3T, 3A+2T, 4T, 3A(so), 4S, 3F, 3L (8 jumping passes; 3 quads, 6 triples)
Plushenko FS: 4T-3T-3L(so), 4T, 3A-3F, 3A, 3Z, 2A, 2S (7 jumping passes; 2 quads, 6 triples)
Goebel had 4S, 3F, 3L in his second half (22.99 points). Plushenko had just a 3Z, 2A, 2S (11.66 points).

Using Scale of Values -- Base values for jumps, including 2nd half bonus:

Goebel's jump base value SP: 28.93 points
Plushenko's jump base value SP: 16.50 points (not to mention the -1 deduction and -3 GOE for the fall, and also the added deduction on the 3Z for not being in combination)

Goebel's jump base value FS: 72.00 points
Plushenko's jump base value FS: 64.26 points

Total jumps value for Goebel: 100.93 points
Total jumps value for Plushenko: 80.76 points

That basically amounts to a 20-point advantage (even greater if you consider the SP fall/no combo). Plushenko had an impressive FS with two quads, an incredible 3A-3F, and brought the theatrics, but Goebel still destroyed him (and the field) from a technical standpoint -- it's appalling that some judges actually put Goebel and Plushenko on par or even marked Plushenko as technically superior in the FS. Not only was Goebel's layout harder, Goebel actually had transitions leading into his jumps in the FS (spread eagle into 3A, hydroblading into 3L), and Plushenko had absolutely none. These are tangible things, not an opinion like "Oh, Plushenko's expression was better so it didn't matter if Goebel outskated him".

And also it's not just my opinion that Goebel deserved silver. Look at Youtube video comments and you'll see plenty of people argue that Goebel should have been ahead of Plushenko. Not to mention the crowd of fans that you see in this video that boo when they see that Goebel placed behind Plushenko after he did 3 quads - including two quad salchows - and Plushenko did a double salchow: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zQXiiknXAH8&t=7m10s Sorry, what's that about Chan being booed?

 

[let`s talk]

Using Scale of Values -- Base values for jumps, including 2nd half bonus:

Illegal argument. In real life you too apply the "rules/laws" that was not valid at the time of the action? It makes you be sociablely a dangerous person. Which is not the same as to be just an online troll. The Base of Values wasn't in apply in SLC. If you use the CoP in SLC regarding Plu, then you must use 6.0 system regarding Chan, under which he would have won nothing with his butt on ice. But you don't.

 

[Mathman]

I have read that when the scale of values for the CoP was in the preliminary stages, one of the events that the ISU used for calibration was the 2002 Olympics men's competition. For the base values that they were testing, Goebel beat Yagudin fot the gold medal.

Well, that was obviously wrong, so they reduced the base value for quads until it came out right.

 

[gmyers]

This is the most awful awful thing about COP!!! That a triple axel triple flip sequence is totally reduced to the base values of both the 3A and 3F with the half loop! You are discussing a triple axel triple flip sequence!!! That deserves total tremendous respect and is totally amazing in all levels of skating history.

 

[let`s talk]

Precisely why we don't see much of quad combos anymore, especially in SP. Because it costs the same points as to do a single quad and then a lutz combo in SP.

 

[let`s talk]

And also it's not just my opinion that Goebel deserved silver. Look at Youtube video comments and you'll see plenty of people argue that Goebel should have been ahead of Plushenko. Not to mention the crowd of fans that you see in this video that boo when they see that Goebel placed behind Plushenko after he did 3 quads - including two quad salchows - and Plushenko did a double salchow: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zQXiiknXAH8&t=7m10s Sorry, what's that about Chan being booed?

I have read that when the scale of values for the CoP was in the preliminary stages, one of the events that the ISU used for calibration was the 2002 Olympics men's competition. For the base values that they were testing, Goebel beat Yagudin fot the gold medal.

Wait! Yagudin was boo-ed in SLC? In fact Goebel is OGM?

How did it happen that no one noticed that for 11 years until CSG and Mathman brought it up.