What would podium in Sochi be if Kostner, Asada, and Kim all go clean

[jiggs]

How clean kostner is able to win clean kim?
base value? she lost to kim. GOE? she shouldn't receive more GOE than kim. PCS? maybe she will receive 1~2 lower than kim.
I think it can not be even tough competitive

The answer to your question is here: http://www.goldenskate.com/forum/sh...m-all-go-clean&p=746757&viewfull=1#post746757

 

[Mrs. P]

You might want to check out Jigg and ForeverFish's posts where they break down the scoring (including GOEs I believe)

Carolina's hypothetical clean programs by Jiggs: http://www.goldenskate.com/forum/sh...m-all-go-clean&p=746757&viewfull=1#post746757

Mao's hypothetical clean programs by ForeverFish: http://www.goldenskate.com/forum/sh...m-all-go-clean&p=746810&viewfull=1#post746810

These are great analysis, thank you both.

That said, my opinion is based on what I think would happen for them to be clean in the first place, not if they would do these hypothetical layouts clean. I agree with Robeye that you have to put some probability analysis into making an educational guess. I don't think Mao would go clean doing such a tough layout because she has yet to show she can as of late.

I would actually put more of my money on Carolina because she has done a 3F-3T in competition as of late and doesn't UR. Her mistakes seem to be silly ones rather than ones reflecting bad technique. However, I don't think she will have enough in GOE and PCS to make up for what will be likely a clean BV from Yuna.

 

[Mathman]

Temporarily closed for thread management. Watch this space for the grand opening of the new, improved (if somewhat shorter) version.

...OK, as you were.

Here's the rule. Post about figure skating, not about how stupid other posters are.

 

[FlattFan]

My point is that

As for the SP, if Yuna was clean and didn't get an edge call, she would have received postive GOE, not zero. So I still think that if both were clean in the SP, Yuna would edge her out (barely).

Your point is Yuna would have received positive GOE on the flip and caro would receive 0 goe on her 3t3t combo, so yuna would still edge her out.

Ok, I get ur point now.

 

[Mrs. P]

Your point is Yuna would have received positive GOE on the flip and caro would receive 0 goe on her 3t3t combo, so yuna would still edge her out.

Ok, I get ur point now.

Yep, although I guess you could argue that Caro could get extra GOE as well. Still, I think Yuna would edge her out but barely.

I think the GOE gap is (and would be in the future) greater in the FS.

 

[prettykeys]

There must be something wrong with my reading comprehension then. You started off saying politics and corrupt judging have never helped Yuna....etc etc...who did they help. And your third sentence names Mao. I interpreted that as you saying politics and corrupt judging have helped Mao.

But whatever...

I believe Jaylee was talking about how politics helped Mao with respect to the rule changes allowing the 3A, a jump only Mao is currently performing in the SP contrary to standard ISU rule changes and also the reduction in what the absolute GOE is (+3 = +2.1 for triples except 3A)

That's what I gathered from jaylee's post as well.

The kind of assumptions people insert where their reading comprehension is lacking is certainly interesting to see...

 

[FlattFan]

Yep, although I guess you could argue that Caro could get extra GOE as well. Still, I think Yuna would edge her out but barely.

I think the GOE gap is (and would be in the future) greater in the FS.

So Caro got 1.6 GOE for her 3T3T whenever she landed them cleanly. How big would Yuna have to get for her flip to edge Caro out?

Let's assume Yuna got the GOE she did for her flip in the LP
5.16 + .2 + 1.9 = 7.06

Caro
4.08 + 1.7 + 1.6 = 7.38 GOE

So no, Yuna is not going to edge Caro out of anything.

You can do the same exercise in the LP.

The point is this, there is no "huge buffer"
If anything, Caro can edge out Yuna because her jumps have similar GOE and her steps always have better GOE.

 

[prettykeys]

If anything, Caro can edge out Yuna because her jumps have similar GOE and her steps always have better GOE.

And, Carolina can put 7 triple jumps into her LP.

 

[Mrs. P]

So Caro got 1.6 GOE for her 3T3T whenever she landed them cleanly. How big would Yuna have to get for her flip to edge Caro out?

Let's assume Yuna got the GOE she did for her flip in the LP
5.16 + .2 + 1.9 = 7.06

Caro
4.08 + 1.7 + 1.6 = 7.38 GOE

So no, Yuna is not going to edge Caro out of anything.

You can do the same exercise in the LP.

The point is this, there is no "huge buffer"
If anything, Caro can edge out Yuna because her jumps have similar GOE and her steps always have better GOE.

Yuna scored 7.2 not 7.06 for her 3F in the FS. So I'll use that number would have received a total GOE of 7.26 points, for a total TES of 38.89

Carolina, assuming the +1.6 (plus BV of 8.2) would have received a total GOE 7.38 for a total TES of 37.31

So in this scenario yes, Carolina would edge out Yuna in GOE, however, the with a lower BV, Yuna still would have prevailed in TES.

So adding the PCS they received the total SP scores for Yuna and Carolina are 71.93 and 71.16, respectively. Basically virtual tie, but Yuna edges out by a hair.

So original argument is wrong here, but it's clear that Yuna's higher BV helped her here.

I do think Yuna can gather up a much higher buffer in GOE in the FS though, hence my earlier assention.

That said, based on the math here, I do think Carolina could challenge Yuna, especially if she decides to bring the 3F-3T to the SP.

 

[chloepoco]

That's what I gathered from jaylee's post as well.

The kind of assumptions people insert where their reading comprehension is lacking is certainly interesting to see...

I'm not assuming anything; furthermore, my reading comprehension is just fine, thank you.

 

[FlattFan]

Yuna scored 7.2 not 7.06 for her 3F in the FS. So I'll use that number would have received a total GOE of 7.26 points, for a total TES of 38.89

No, I'm talking about GOE only. I gave her back the -0.2 point on her flip, added 1.9 GOE that she would earn comparable to the flip she did in the LP. Her GOE in the SP would go up by another 2.1

Carolina, without the fall, would get back -1.7 GOE on the 3x3, earn another 1.6 GOE, so she would gain an additional 3.3 points, thus, giving her the edge in GOE in the SP.

In the LP, with 7 triples, there is no chance a clean Caro would score less GOE than a clean Kim.
Kim was flawless and had about 6 points GOE advantage. Caro made 2 big errors, each cost her over 1 point in GOE, her other elements weren't exactly strong either.

I don't see a "much higher buffer" anywhere.
I see Caro's BV is higher than Yuna's BV in the LP.

If skated perfectly, their TES will be within a point. This is because Kim has harder 3x3, and 3 lutzes total. Caro only has 1 lutz, but one extra triple loop. BV should also be within a point, GOE is also very close.
They will beat each other base on PCS if both are clean. This is where I think Caro should win because her programs are just better.

 

[Ven]

I would like to take up your challenge. I broke down Carolina scores from Worlds and replaced her missed elements with scores from other competitions where she completed them. The result shows that *if* both Yuna and Carolina skate their programs clean, the "large margin" you are talking about is not there anymore. Let’s assume Carolina went completely clean with the layout she had at 2013 Worlds:

In the short program, the scenario would be the following:

3Lo: 6.40
3T+3T: 9.50 (that’s the score she received for the same combination at Worlds 2012)
FCSp4: 3.84
2A: 4.63
StSq4: 5.60
CCoSp4: 4.07
LSp3: 2.97
TES: 37.01

With a mistake in the SP, her PCS score was 33.85. In case of a clean skate, she would probably receive higher PCS, I have to assume a number here so I am just going to go for 34.20 (she received 34.60 at Challenge Cup 2013).

TOTAL SP SCORE: 71.21

The long program scenario would be:

3Lz: 7.60
2A: 4.30
3F+3T: 10.30
FCCoSP4: 4.14
FCSp4: 4.06
3Lo: 6.71 (that’s what she received at Europeans 2013)
3T+2T: 7.04
3S+2T+2Lo: 9.03
CCoSP4: 4.43
StSq4: 5.80
ChSq1: 3.30
3S: 5.67 (that’s what she received at Challenge Cup 2013)
TES: 72.38

She had two major mistakes in the FP at Worlds this year and her PCS score was 70.69. With a clean skate, I expect her PCS would go through the roof and I don’t see why she would not match Yuna’s score of 73.61.

That would make a FP score of 145.99 and a total competition score of 217.20.

That should make it clear: Yuna still has the edge in this scenario, but the gap is not as big as some people here make it out to be.

Now IF Carolina upgrades her jump content in the SP and FP for next season (which I assume she would if she wants to go for Gold) and IF she delivers cleanly, she could very well match a clean Yuna. Carolina still has plenty of room to play around with her jump content especially in the FP, she currently repeats the two easiest triples (Sal and Toe) and only does one 2a.

I know that people will now cry out and say "but this will never happen, why are we even talking about this, Carolina will never skate clean in both programs". I agree - I think it's highly unlikely that Carolina will skate clean in both competition phases, she always makes some mistakes here and there. But we are talking hypothetically here, so why not look into it and play with the numbers. And if people say that hypothetically it's impossible for anyone currently competing to come close to a clean Yuna and that she would still win by a large margin, I think I just proved to you that this would not be the case.

Now, it would be interesting to see a break-down of Mao's program. Any volunteers to do that?

You made up 12 points in the FS and 4 points in the SP. The PCS scores are subjective and Yuna would have also received higher PCS in the SP so we can basically cancel those out.

By my count Yuna still wins by 8 or 9 points if the two skate clean.

 

[Ven]

Also next year the programs will be different. Maybe after going back to full time for a full season, Yuna's program will have higher base value. Maybe another skater will improve so much in the next 8 months that they become better. I don't think so but that's more realistic than to say that if one of the other ladies skates clean they would beat Yuna when she's at her best.

 

[Krislite]

Robeye brought up a good point--in that why are we assuming, for our comparison of hypothetical programs, a program by Yuna that has very high probability of being 100% clean vs. programs by Carolina and Mao with very low chances of 100% clean? In fairness, we should consider cases in which Yuna upgrades her tech content to a level that maximizes her scoring potential while being no less likely to be 100% clean than either Mao or Carolina. For instance, Yuna could include the 3Loop in her program while repeating both the Lutz and the Flip in the LP. While her chances of going clean would be slim, it certainly wouldn't be any more far-fetched than Mao doing a 100% clean 8-triple LP or Carolina doing a clean 7-triple LP at the Olympics. After all, Yuna herself has actually executed a few 7-triple programs in her past skating career. Just some further comments based on Robeye's post, which seems to have been overlooked in all the heated back-and-forth in this thread.

 

[cooper]

I'm not assuming anything; furthermore, my reading comprehension is just fine, thank you.

yes you are.. and others as well when they're making assumptions that yuna is arrogant etc..but when you looked at this year's worlds.. yuna was all class.. someone who brought her A game and her haters are still trying to discredit anything..

 

[chloepoco]

yes you are.. and others as well when they're making assumptions that yuna is arrogant etc..but when you looked at this year's worlds.. yuna was all class.. someone who brought her A game and her haters are still trying to discredit anything..

I was replying to Jaylee's post--I suggest you read his/her original post to which I referred to.

However, it looks like that post has been deleted

This is actually quite funny--I love Yuna, now I'm getting attacked by other Yuna fans for questioning Jaylee's assertion that JSF is political and corrupt.

With that, I'm outta here.

 

[cheerio2]

Robeye brought up a good point--in that why are we assuming, for our comparison of hypothetical programs, a program by Yuna that has very high probability of being 100% clean vs. programs by Carolina and Mao with very low chances of 100% clean? In fairness, we should consider cases in which Yuna upgrades her tech content to a level that maximizes her scoring potential while being no less likely to be 100% clean than either Mao or Carolina. For instance, Yuna could include the 3Loop in her program while repeating both the Lutz and the Flip in the LP. While her chances of going clean would be slim, it certainly wouldn't be any more far-fetched than Mao doing a 100% clean 8-triple LP or Carolina doing a clean 7-triple LP at the Olympics. After all, Yuna herself has actually executed a few 7-triple programs in her past skating career. Just some further comments based on Robeye's post, which seems to have been overlooked in all the heated back-and-forth in this thread.

I think it is because the premise is what would happen if they all went clean, presumably with their planned programs. There are already plenty of discussions and threads about who people think will win. But the probability of going clean doesn't factor into this hypothetical since they are already assumed to go clean. If we're talking maximization of scoring potential, Caro's program doesn't maximize her scoring potential either, as Caro could also put 2 lutzes, 2 flips, etc. so that would be a whole different discussion. I think that would be an interesting discussion to have, but it is a different issue from the hypothetical of clean planned programs.

 

[let`s talk]

Temporarily closed for thread management. Watch this space for the grand opening of the new, improved (if somewhat shorter) version.

...OK, as you were.

Here's the rule. Post about figure skating, not about how stupid other posters are.

Obviously the rule has been applied selectively. Yuna fans get a green card to talk about how stupid other posters are instead of talking about figure skating. It's actually a good thing because thanks to that they can be seen in their true colors, which I don't mind at all. :

I'm sorry but are you seriously dumb?
In a hypotheical situation, Mao is able to receive +2s or +3s on GOE and beat Yuna Kim. I honestly feel like Im talking to a mentally disabled person. How are you not conprehending this? Anything new? Yes, your stupidity going more than above and beyond.

And no, Yuna would not have won against clean Caro or Mao

You know that how? Seem like you fail to give a proof of your claim, so your team switched into plain insults. Nothing new here. But it doesn't work with me. I am immune from trolling.
That's a cheat to compare a hypothetical situation (+3 GOE to Yuna's rivals for everything) and the real one (the score that she got at Worlds). Compare the hypothetical with hypothetical, like giving Yuna +3 GOE for everything as well. And real with real. Once again, here's the protocal of the recent Worlds:http://www.isuresults.com/results/wc2013/wc2013_Ladies_FS_Scores.pdf http://www.isuresults.com/results/wc2013/wc2013_Ladies_SP_Scores.pdf . You can see Caro's and Mao's mistakes. Now tell me how exactly they would have been able to cover the gap of 22/21 points accordingly if they hadn't make those mistakes. They wouldn't. That's the point. Yuna was shamefully overscored that made it's impossible to her rivals to reach her even if they skated clean. Disgusting judging.

 

[prettykeys]

Robeye brought up a good point--in that why are we assuming, for our comparison of hypothetical programs, a program by Yuna that has very high probability of being 100% clean vs. programs by Carolina and Mao with very low chances of 100% clean? In fairness, we should consider cases in which Yuna upgrades her tech content to a level that maximizes her scoring potential while being no less likely to be 100% clean than either Mao or Carolina. For instance, Yuna could include the 3Loop in her program while repeating both the Lutz and the Flip in the LP. While her chances of going clean would be slim, it certainly wouldn't be any more far-fetched than Mao doing a 100% clean 8-triple LP or Carolina doing a clean 7-triple LP at the Olympics. After all, Yuna herself has actually executed a few 7-triple programs in her past skating career. Just some further comments based on Robeye's post, which seems to have been overlooked in all the heated back-and-forth in this thread.

For two reasons:

1) Because it's fun.
2) Because it gives us an idea of how technically-packed either Carolina or Mao, her closest competitors, would have to build their programs in order to possibly overcome YuNa's highly predictable layout with very high scores. There are way too many variables to make an accurate prediction, of course, but it would also be interesting to see how they approach the upcoming Olympic season with all this in mind. Will they have the skeleton of the layouts ready by the beginning of the season? Or will they modify it depending on how things are going, where they are placing, etc.?

 

[venlac]

You know that how? Seem like you fail to give a proof of your claim, so your team switched into plain insults. Nothing new here. But it doesn't work with me. I am immune from trolling.
That's a cheat to compare a hypothetical situation (+3 GOE to Yuna's rivals for everything) and the real one (the score that she got at Worlds). Compare the hypothetical with hypothetical, like giving Yuna +3 GOE for everything as well. And real with real. Once again, here's the protocal of the recent Worlds:http://www.isuresults.com/results/wc2013/wc2013_Ladies_FS_Scores.pdf http://www.isuresults.com/results/wc2013/wc2013_Ladies_SP_Scores.pdf . You can see Caro's and Mao's mistakes. Now tell me how exactly they would have been able to cover the gap of 22/21 points accordingly if they hadn't make those mistakes. They wouldn't. That's the point. Yuna was shamefully overscored that made it's impossible to her rivals to reach her even if they skated clean. Disgusting judging.

Kim has not received that much GOEs except in FS at 2013 World. I can't remember when she got +3 on spin or step in the past. It was special case.

when i think she has not received so many +3 GOE like in FS in World. I thought and guess, it was because of she underscored in SP, So when she justified her winning with perfect FS, judges had generous judgement(especially on spin and steps) on purpose. Anyway, It's just guess..