Lysacek's road to Sochi starts to get serious

[Blades of Passion]

The rule is fair. When you are capable of doing a 3Axel, it's silly that you HAVE to still do a 2Axel in your SP after completing a 3Axel+2Toe combo.

3Axel+2Toe is more difficult than 3Lutz+3Toe, yet it's worth less points under the current CoP. Think about it.

 

[Mathman]

Triple Axels and quads are both undervalued. It should go like this:

1A = 1.1
2A = 3.3
3A = 9.9

1T = 0.4
2T = 1.3
3T = 3.9
4T = 11.7

1Lz = 0.7
2Lz = 2.0
3Lz = 6.0
4Lz = 18.0 (Brandon Mroz rules!)

3Lz+3T = 9.9 (assuming no bonus in tech for jumps done in combination)

 

[jaylee]

The rule is fair. When you are capable of doing a 3Axel, it's silly that you HAVE to still do a 2Axel in your SP after completing a 3Axel+2Toe combo.

It wasn't instituted at a time that makes it fair to the field. The ISU didn't allow the men to do a solo 3A or a solo quad in the SP until many had proven over the years that they were capable of doing the jump. They didn't institute the rule when only one male skater was capable of doing a 3A or a quad--because that would have given that skater too big of a competitive advantage in the short program.

Same for the ladies with the triple out of footwork, or the triple/triple in the SP. They weren't allowed to do it until numerous ladies had shown they could do it over a number of years; it was proven that no single individual would be the sole beneficiary.

It may have been silly that Kristi Yamaguchi and Midori Ito were doing doubles out of footwork in the SP in 1992, and you can say that the ISU was overly cautious, but at least they never gave one skater a big leg up over the others in the short program. Until 2010, that is.

3Axel+2Toe is more difficult than 3Lutz+3Toe, yet it's worth less points under the current CoP. Think about it.

This is really a separate issue. I wouldn't have a problem with a combination bonus that awards bonuses based on the difficulty of the first jump (and if necessary a smaller bonus based on the second jump).

But why automatically blame the system as opposed to the skater's strategy? Mao's decision to attempt the 3A/2T instead of her 3F/3Lo (which is ALSO worth more than a 3Lz/3T AND a 3A/2T) was questionable. Had she stuck with the 3/3, she probably would've gotten it ratified at the Olympics.

There is definitely a weakness of the system that doesn't explicitly reward combinations, but it applies to numerous skaters and situations, and Mao was not being singled out. When Yu-Na switched her SP layout from 3F/3T and a 3Lz to a 3Lz/3T and a 3F, she gained nothing in base value though the difficulty of her combination increased. A 3Lz/3Lo, which Miki was attempting, was worth more than either a 3Lz/3T or a 3A/2T, but did anyone complain about that? No.

 

[Blades of Passion]

Several women have shown they can do 3Axel in competition and a LOT of them have landed it in practice. Yukari Nakano got fully credited for some of her attempts in the 2008 season. It's not just Mao.

I feel your argument is a bit reductive. If something isn't valued then people aren't going to practice it.

Also, I've always complained about Miki being under-rewarded for her very difficult jump elements (when she used to attempt them) even though she's usually over-rewarded on spins/PCS.

 

[Mathman]

In any case, the rule change has not profited Mao (or anyone else) yet. In the three world championships held under the new rules Mao's placements in the short program were:

2011 7th (behind Kim, Ando, Makarova, Csisny, Leonova and Kostner)

2012 4th (behind Leonova, Murakami and Kostner)

2013 6th (behind Kim, Kostner, Murakami, Osmond and Wagner)

 

[Krislite]

Triple Axels and quads are both undervalued. It should go like this:

1A = 1.1
2A = 3.3
3A = 9.9

1T = 0.4
2T = 1.3
3T = 3.9
4T = 11.7

1Lz = 0.7
2Lz = 2.0
3Lz = 6.0
4Lz = 18.0 (Brandon Mroz rules!)

3Lz+3T = 9.9 (assuming no bonus in tech for jumps done in combination)

The value for a jump or jump combo whose single base value is X should be X*e^(R-1), where R is the number of revolutions and e is the natural number.

The total score for a jump or jump combo should then be (1+.1*GOE)*X*e^(R-1). Scoring GOE this way means GOE is a proportion of base value, taking care of the problem of undervalued jump combos by giving it a larger bonus proportional to its higher base value.

All fair, I think, though this would make scoring even more incomprehensible to the audience. Just tell a layman, the value of an executed element is (1+.1*GOE)*X*e^(R-1), where R is the number of revolutions, X is the base value, e is the base of the natural logarithm, and GOE is the trimmed mean of the scores given by a panel of nine judges.

 

[jennyanydots]

It wasn't instituted at a time that makes it fair to the field. The ISU didn't allow the men to do a solo 3A or a solo quad in the SP until many had proven over the years that they were capable of doing the jump. They didn't institute the rule when only one male skater was capable of doing a 3A or a quad--because that would have given that skater too big of a competitive advantage in the short program.

Midori Ito landed the first triple axel in competition over 20 years ago. Since then there have been at least four other ladies attempting and landing triple axels in competition. Several more ladies have trained and landed triple axels in practice without attempting them in competition. So how much longer does the ISU have to wait? The men are now allowed two quads in the short and so far who has been able to consistently do it? The rule is more than fair and does not benefit only Mao. And how is it a travesty that a lady with a triple axel should have an advantage over those who don't. I think it's more of a travesty that a lady with inferior technical content can have a score competitive with the men due to inflated GOE's.

 

[cooper]

Midori Ito landed the first triple axel in competition over 20 years ago. Since then there have been at least four other ladies attempting and landing triple axels in competition. Several more ladies have trained and landed triple axels in practice without attempting them in competition. So how much longer does the ISU have to wait? The men are now allowed two quads in the short and so far who has been able to consistently do it? The rule is more than fair and does not benefit only Mao. And how is it a travesty that a lady with a triple axel should have an advantage over those who don't. I think it's more of a travesty that a lady with inferior technical content can have a score competitive with the men due to inflated GOE's.

or maybe that inferior technical content is actually worth of GOEs because of quality?

as for the 3A.. it was obvious from the start what ISU is trying to do..
if mao landed her 3As then good for her, she has all the tools, she has a strong fed doing the politics for her.. all she needs to do is skate and perform well..

 

[FSGMT]

Midori Ito landed the first triple axel in competition over 20 years ago. Since then there have been at least four other ladies attempting and landing triple axels in competition. Several more ladies have trained and landed triple axels in practice without attempting them in competition. So how much longer does the ISU have to wait? The men are now allowed two quads in the short and so far who has been able to consistently do it? The rule is more than fair and does not benefit only Mao. And how is it a travesty that a lady with a triple axel should have an advantage over those who don't. I think it's more of a travesty that a lady with inferior technical content can have a score competitive with the men due to inflated GOE's.

You're right in saying what I highlited in the bolded section, but I agree with jaylee, and I think that the two-quads-rule for the Men SP is not correct: only a few of them are actually able to land two quads in a SP (Reynolds, Aaron and maybe Fernandez/Hanyu), so this rule should be taken away until most part of the top-level guys are actually able to perform at least two different quads in competition and so can include them in their SP... As jaylee correctly pointed out, at the beginning of the 90s skaters like Yamaguchi, Kerrigan, Ito, Bayul etc. were able to land 3Lz and 3F (and Ito 3A) without any problem but they still had to present a solo double jump in the SP (the same for the guys), and this because until some years before most of the ladies were able to land at the most 1/2 triples: the SP shouldn't be just a shorter version of the FS, but a program that has to be skated clean because it includes elements that most of the Ladies are capable of doing, and the judging should focus mainly on the technical quality of the elements (it has been actually called "Technical program" for some years). Mao is the only girl in the world at the moment who is capable of including a 3A in her SP, so (for the reason that jaylee and I explained) she shouldn't be allowed to do it; and, yes, she should be forced to present a 2A even if she's capable of a triple, for the same reason that between 1988 and 1994 forced skaters who were able to easily land a 3F to include a 2F in their SPs...

 

[ciocio]

It wasn't instituted at a time that makes it fair to the field. The ISU didn't allow the men to do a solo 3A or a solo quad in the SP until many had proven over the years that they were capable of doing the jump. They didn't institute the rule when only one male skater was capable of doing a 3A or a quad--because that would have given that skater too big of a competitive advantage in the short program.

Same for the ladies with the triple out of footwork, or the triple/triple in the SP. They weren't allowed to do it until numerous ladies had shown they could do it over a number of years; it was proven that no single individual would be the sole beneficiary.

It may have been silly that Kristi Yamaguchi and Midori Ito were doing doubles out of footwork in the SP in 1992, and you can say that the ISU was overly cautious, but at least they never gave one skater a big leg up over the others in the short program. Until 2010, that is.

Skaters should be allowed to jump any jump they are able to, even quint if they can. If a skater is really capable of great achievements he/she should have a competitive advantage. As a fan, at the Olympics I like to see records, special programs and I'm happy that ISU allowed it. :thumbsup:

 

[FSGMT]

Skaters should be allowed to jump any jump they are able to, even quint if they can. If a skater is really capable of great achievements he/she should have a competitive advantage. As a fan, at the Olympics I like to see records, special programs and I'm happy that ISU allowed it. :thumbsup:

I agree, but my point is that this should be in the FS, not in the SP

 

[Mathman]

The value for a jump or jump combo whose single base value is X should be X*e^(R-1), where R is the number of revolutions and e is the natural number.

1A = 1.1
2A = 3.0
3A = 8.1

1Lz = 0.7
2Lz = 1.9
3 Lz = 5.2

This is the same formula that I used above, but substituting 3 for e. The rationale is that each extra revolution makes the jump three times as difficult. This, I think would be understandable to the audience. It might be a challenge to explain why a triple Axel is "e" times as difficult as a double Axel.

This (multiplying by three) is not far off from the actual scale of values, except that quads and triple Axels are presently somewhat undervalued. I think the reason is that the ISU does not want quads and triple Axels to get too far ahead of spins and other non-jump elements.

 

[Mathman]

Skaters should be allowed to jump any jump they are able to, even quint if they can

I agree, but my point is that this should be in the FS, not in the SP

I think FSGMT has a point. The original concept of the short program was that all of the competitors would do exactly the same elements, so they could be directly compared one against the other. At various times the jumps were specified on a rotating basis. (It was just too bad for you if your nemesis jump came up at an inopportune time. ) We have gotten away from this idea, and now the short program is just a briefer version of the long program and does not serve any distinguished purpose at all.

 

[FSGMT]

I think FSGMT has a point. The original concept of the short program was that all of the competitors would do exactly the same elements, so they could be directly compared one against the other. At various times the jumps were specified on a rotating basis. (It was just too bad for you if your nemesis jump came up at an inopportune time. ) We have gotten away from this idea, and now the short program is just a briefer version of the long program and does not serve any distinguished purpose at all.

I agree 100%, and that's sad, I think that the SP was really better during the 80s for example, when the top skaters were all skating clean (and all doing 3T+2Lo, 2A and 2F for example) and the scoring was really looking at the quality and at the beauty of the elements (not just at who didn't fall or popped jumps)... Now a clean SP is almost as rare as a clean FS :disapp:

 

[FSGMT]

Maybe we should move this discussion to a different thread, though (it's really interesting)...

 

[Krislite]

1A = 1.1
2A = 3.0
3A = 8.1

1Lz = 0.7
2Lz = 1.9
3 Lz = 5.2

This is the same formula that I used above, but substituting 3 for e. The rationale is that each extra revolution makes the jump three times as difficult. This, I think would be understandable to the audience. It might be a challenge to explain why a triple Axel is "e" times as difficult as a double Axel.

This (multiplying by three) is not far off from the actual scale of values, except that quads and triple Axels are presently somewhat undervalued. I think the reason is that the ISU does not want quads and triple Axels to get too far ahead of spins and other non-jump elements.

The exponential is more "natural" and doesn't over weigh the quads and the triple Axel. The more important part though is that GOE should be proportional to base value. I think it's stupid that a solo Flip gets the same GOE as a 3F+3Lo.

+1 should add 10% to BV, +2 should add 20% and of course +3 gives 30%.

 

[Mathman]

I think the only part that really needs to be examined is the application of GOE to combinations. As for the percentages, right now the bonus for each increment of GOE is

2A 15%
4T 17%
3S 16%
3Lo 14%
3F 13%
3Lz 12%

This is not terribly outrageous.

For whatever reason, for combinations the ISU has been adamant about giving GOE only at the rate for the higher of the two jumps, not for both. They have also been firm about not taking the difficulty of a combination into account in base value (4T+3T and 3Lz is harder than 4T and 3Lz+3T, but they count the same). I don't know why the ISU technical committee is so insistent about this; the only guess that I can come up with is that a triple-triple combination is already it's own reward, because it frees up a jumping pass which the skater can fill with an extra triple jump or double Axel. This is already a pretty big reward.

 

[SkateFan66]

Maybe we should move this discussion to a different thread, though (it's really interesting)...

Since the discussion re: jump value and GOE is off topic, it would be courteous to move the discussion to another thread.

 

[ice coverage]

Returning to this thread to note:

(1) Lysacek (along with thirteen other figure skaters) currently is at the USOC media summit, so perhaps we will be privy to an update on him early this week.

(2)

Today the USOC announced that Lysacek will be one of the featured Sochi hopefuls at its 100 Day Countdown event -- on Oct 29, barely a week after Skate America.
More than forty athletes are expected to participate. Of the ten mentioned by name in the announcement, Lysacek is the only figure skater.

http://www.teamusa.org/Road-to-Soch...hi-Tour-Presented-By-Liberty-Mutual-Insurance​

Wait, this part I don't like. You mean to say that Lysacek can pull out of Skate America and he will STILL be the only figure skater getting show-off media coverage and talked about as a Sochi hopeful? As opposed to Max, Joshua, Jason, Adam, any of the skaters that have actually PROVEN that they are competing? This STINKS.

Just stumbled upon a full list of athletes for this event (on a separate page from the press release), current as of 9/23/13. For figure skating, they are:

• Sasha Cohen
• Emily Hughes
• Sarah Hughes
• Meryl Davis*
• Evan Lysacek*
• Charlie White*

The asterisks designate Sochi 2014 Olympic hopefuls, according to the list.

http://www.teamusa.org/Media/Games/Sochi-2014/100-Day-Countdown/Athlete-List​

BTW, the Times Square event will be open to the public from 5 to 8 pm.

http://www.teamusa.org/Media/Games/Sochi-2014/100-Day-Countdown/Run-of-Show​

 

[ice coverage]

Lysacek officially out of Skate America

He announced at the USOC media summit today that he cannot compete at Skate America because of injuries (plural).

ETA:

Julie Stewart-Binks ‏@JSB_FOX

Lysacek says abdominal strain & torn labrum will keep him out of Skate America. Still hoping to compete in Sochi & nationals #mediasummit
8:25 AM - 30 Sep 13
https://twitter.com/JSB_FOX/status/384700496717414400​

USFS also has been tweeting re the Lysacek news.​