Can Yuzuru Hanyu close the gap on Patrick Chan?

[elee63]

Didn't Johnny Weir design his costume for his LP this year? Yep, I hate his costume too. Just too feminine.

Those rainbow coloured sequins though.....

Sorry love the kid to death, but I couldn't help but snigger. Of course I shut up when he started skating (after he recovered from the fall).

But hey, WHATEVER works. If he's ok with it, who are we really to complain?

 

[drivingmissdaisy]

But hey, WHATEVER works. If he's ok with it, who are we really to complain?

It's hard because I believe everyone should be free to express themselves how they want. However, Hanyu's costume borders on silly and it is a poor way to package his immense talent.

 

[Matilda]

Here we go again... Yuzuru ASKED Johnny to design his cosstume and Johnny said Yuzu had a very clear idea of the kind of costume he wanted. In other words, the costume is clearly integral to his artistic vision of the program. I guess Yuzuru is less hung up on the masculine/feminine dichotomy than some viewers are. Personally, I love the costume, and I think it works well for the program--but then I like many of Johnny's costumes as well, especially his Yunona & Avos and Ave Maria costumes, and both of his Vancouver Olympics costumes. To each their own. But as I said in another thread, for some skaters the costume is important for their vision of what they seek to portray in the program, while others couldn't care less (Sotnikova is one of the latter). For Yuzu the costume clearly matters a lot, and if it helps him get in the right frame of mind, I'm all for it!

 

[Kitt]

It's hard because I believe everyone should be free to express themselves how they want. However, Hanyu's costume borders on silly and it is a poor way to package his immense talent.

Johnny has stated that Yuzuru already had his ideas about costuming, so he wasn't unduly influenced by Johnny. If he's comfortable and he's winning, why should we object?

 

[cheerio2]

Yes! I am still wondering how Patrick can get higher GOEs on his jumps than Yuzu..it makes no sense to me. Patrick has several shaky landings, and very little flow out of his jumps =S

Really? Chan gets higher GOEs? The height and distance Hanyu gets on his jumps are probably the best I've seen in years, if not ever. And on the slo-mos, it's clear (including to the British ESP commentators) that Hanyu's jumps have zero underotation. Not even a quarter turn. And that difficult entrance into the 3A? Is there one other person in the world that can do that?! So impressive.

Patrick Chan will continue to get higher GOEs and PCS until he retires.. He will win OGM as well. We just have to accept it.

Well, that might happen but we don't have to accept it. If it's true that Chan is such a favorite, one problem is that it plays mental games on the other skaters. The favorite can go into the Olympics relaxed, knowing that they can afford to make mistakes and still win. Other skaters have to go in with the pressure of having to be perfect. That's pretty sickening.

 

[chuckm]

Hanyu beat Chan in the GPF, and he can beat Chan at Sochi. Chan is vulnerable because he has only one quad, the 4t, and his 3a is not stable. In the FS, he must nail both quads and the one 3a because those are his 3 money jumps.

Hanyu has both 4S and 4T and a very stable 3a. In the FS he is capable of landing 3 quads, one in combination, and two 3as, one in combination. Chan cannot match that technical content and if Hanyu hits his jumps, Chan cannot afford even the slightest error.

 

[Mathman]

Chan was blah in this performance. If he perks up a bit he will still be the favorite at the Olympics.

By the way, did you notice on the NBC telecast just now, the first shot when Chan's program started was the overhead camera. Like they were daring Patrick to say something.

 

[Kalina]

I just watched the men's competition for the first time in literally years, and not having any idea who these guys were, this guy Hanyu blew me away. Like jaw on the floor blown away. His jumps are seriously gravity defying (way better than Chan's in terms of height and distance). His speed is amazing, like he's flying across the ice. He has great artistry and fire. Wonderful flexibility as well. Given the same amount of technical elements successfully completed by both skaters, I don't see how Hanyu DOESN'T win the Olympics, unless there is some major injustice. This guy is the best men's skater I've seen since Yagudin. Like Yagudin, he actually makes me want to watch men's skating, lol. I'm still trying to process what I just saw. Wow.

You might enjoy this, then (sorry, slight OT I know)

 

[SquishyDumpling]

Hanyu beat Chan in the GPF, and he can beat Chan at Sochi. Chan is vulnerable because he has only one quad, the 4t, and his 3a is not stable. In the FS, he must nail both quads and the one 3a because those are his 3 money jumps.

Hanyu has both 4S and 4T and a very stable 3a. In the FS he is capable of landing 3 quads, one in combination, and two 3as, one in combination. Chan cannot match that technical content and if Hanyu hits his jumps, Chan cannot afford even the slightest error.

Hanyu does have 2 diff types of quads, but he's only landed the 4S once this season. He does it well in practice, but it's still a very problematic jump for him in actual competition, so I doubt we will be seeing him attempt a 3 quad FS. Hanyu started the season slow, but seems to be building momentum up to Sochi. If he keeps this up, I agree that he will most likely beat Chan's TES. I still think Chan is the favorite for the gold medal though. I wonder how much Chan will win the PCS battle by if both skate clean. Will the TES a clean Hanyu would get be able to overcome the PCS a clean Chan would get at the Olympics?

 

[chuckm]

Chan won the PCS by only 3 points in the GPF FS, which was not enough to offset Hanyu's tech advantage. Hanyu won the PCS and TES in the SP.

 

[SquishyDumpling]

Chan won the PCS by only 3 points in the GPF FS, which was not enough to offset Hanyu's tech advantage. Hanyu won the PCS and TES in the SP.

Chan didn't skate his best in the SP at GPF though. At TEB, Chan won the clean SP battle against Hanyu - beating him by 3.5pts in PCS. Skeptic that I am, I wonder if the PCS Hanyu got at the GPF in Japan will be similar outside of Japan with the same performances he gave.

 

[bekalc]

Chan didn't skate his best in the SP at GPF though. At TEB, Chan won the clean SP battle against Hanyu - beating him by 3.5pts in PCS. Skeptic that I am, I wonder if the PCS Hanyu got at the GPF in Japan will be similar outside of Japan with the same performances he gave.

I suspect the judges won't want to give Patrick too much of a lead. They won't want a 2013 debacle on their hands. I think he may need a 3.5 lead in the short.

I wonder what the base value advantage is between Hanyu and Chan but its pretty significant 7 points maybe? If Hanyu skates clean at the Olympics, landing a quad sal, and quad toe and two triple axels, along with levels throughout it will be one of the greatest technically performances ever (including his skating skills). I'm not so sure the judges are going to just hand Chan huge PCS to overcome that. They will give Patrick higher PCS-but 7 points? Not so sure about that one.

Hanyu has a habit of taking himself out of the picture in the short anyways.

 

[SquishyDumpling]

Yes, Hanyu has about a 7 point bv advantage over Chan, but Chan also gets more +GOEs than Hanyu. I thought Hanyu usually takes himself out in the long. He skates a great SP and then falters-bombs in the long. Either way he has had a difficult time putting to good programs together in a competition. I'm rooting for the one time that he does put two clean programs together, it will be in Sochi.

 

[chuckm]

I would love to see that.

 

[cheerio2]

You might enjoy this, then (sorry, slight OT I know)

Wow, thanks for that! And he does that at an exhibition?!

 

[pitterpatter]

Yes, Hanyu has about a 7 point bv advantage over Chan, but Chan also gets more +GOEs than Hanyu. I thought Hanyu usually takes himself out in the long. He skates a great SP and then falters-bombs in the long. Either way he has had a difficult time putting to good programs together in a competition. I'm rooting for the one time that he does put two clean programs together, it will be in Sochi.

Does Patrick really have a +GOE advantage though? Yuzuru's jumps are magnificent, if he hits the program out of the park (big if, but speaking theoretically) I'd think the GOEs would be enormous, or at least on par with Patrick's. At the GPF, if you factor out the GOE loss for the fall on the 4S, the GOEs between the two are pretty much equivalent.

 

[Li'Kitsu]

SP BV:
Chan: 43.10; Hanyu: 43.76 (44.36 if he gets Lv4 on spins and steps)

LP BV:
Chan: 83.67 (assuming all his spins are lv 4); Hanyu: 90.02 (adding a Lv4 CCoSp instead of the Lv 1 from GPF)

So Hanyu has a 6.35 points advantage in the LP, around 7 points overall.

About the +GOE, I don't think Chan gets better GOE. It seems they're pretty similar on GOE (and sometimes Chan is getting similar or better GOE than Hanyu on the 3A, which makes me want to pull my hair out, but oh well...). Assuming Hanyu would be completly clean though, I think he'd get slightly higher GOE.

So it's really a thing of Hanyus BV vs. Chans PCS.

Wow, thanks for that! And he does that at an exhibition?!

Kid has been doing 4T-3A since 2011. He's now up to 4S-3A, or even an (unrecorded!! ) 4T-3A-3A-3A

 

[bekalc]

SP BV:
Chan: 43.10; Hanyu: 43.76 (44.36 if he gets Lv4 on spins and steps)

LP BV:
Chan: 83.67 (assuming all his spins are lv 4); Hanyu: 90.02 (adding a Lv4 CCoSp instead of the Lv 1 from GPF)

So Hanyu has a 6.35 points advantage in the LP, around 7 points overall.

About the +GOE, I don't think Chan gets better GOE. It seems they're pretty similar on GOE (and sometimes Chan is getting similar or better GOE than Hanyu on the 3A, which makes me want to pull my hair out, but oh well...). Assuming Hanyu would be completly clean though, I think he'd get slightly higher GOE.

So it's really a thing of Hanyus BV vs. Chans PCS.



Kid has been doing 4T-3A since 2011. He's now up to 4S-3A, or even an (unrecorded!! ) 4T-3A-3A-3A

Hanyu program doesn't have level four footwork, his base value would go up if he gets level four intead of level three too.

 

[Li'Kitsu]

Hanyu program doesn't have level four footwork, his base value would go up if he gets level four intead of level three too.

Yes, I just didn't think it was that likely to happen, so I just left it at lv 3... but with level 4 steps in both programs his overall BV would be about 8.11 points higher than Chans.

 

[Skater Boy]

Hanyu definitely has the tes advantage; Chan shoud have been doing something over the last few years and he doesn't heven max his spins. Theproblem mayb pcs where Chanused to have a huge advantage and now not. I think still if y ou use the Caorlina Kostner who has skater horribly but received huge pcs Chan deserves generallyt he same if not more over his rivals. those edges and transitions should score bigger and also they do affect goe's. life isn't fair but I hope Dai or Chan win gold; hanyu can have his moment in 2018. Chan and Dai have been skating well for a while with wonderfulprograms. Hanyu maybe peaking just at the right time though and that is lifel. I do think Chan hs the best programs; I know some donit like his more reserved artistry but it does work well Hanyu is still a bit youngish; Javier has great charisma and Dai is a diva but the question is now can Chan catch Hanyu?