So Who's an Underdog and Who's a Favorite at Nationals?

Joesitz (RIP) · Jun 4, 2006

chuckm said:
Joesitz:
By making the odds on Ando and Onda 8-6, you are saying that they both have a better chance of winning than Asada and Suguri. 8-6 is 1.33-1. IMO, Anda and Onda should be at 8-1, not 8-6.

totally embarrased. I was just trying to be a smart *** and throw in another different odds than -1.

However, if I bet on Onda at 8-4, that would mean if she won I would get $8 for my $4 or a winning sum of $4. If I bet on Mao, I would get $2 for my $1. or a winning sum of $l. So it would seem that Mao is the most likely to win.

Am I correct or should I take a refresher course of Advanced Algebra for the elderly?:yes:

Joe

Kasey · Jun 4, 2006

Interesting, how in 5 pages, no one has brought up the Russian teams.

With Petrova/Tikhonov staying eligible one more year, I think they would be the favorite for their national title at this point. They have had more consistancy in the past season, with stronger showings internationally, than their closest competitors, who right now would probably be Obertas/Slavnov and Murkortova/Trankov. Borzenkova/Chuvilaev and Totmianina/Marinin are retired.

Dance? I guess Domnina/whoever are being touted and pimped as the team to beat (I am REALLY hoping it is still going to be Domnina/Shabalin, rather than Domnina/Kostamarov, gag). Style-wise, I prefer Khoklova/Novitski in creativity and presentation than DomShabs....but of all the current top 5-6 Russian teams, I REALLY like Romanovskaya/Grachev....I love his expression! They have a ways to go though, I think, to be a threat to the top two.

Ladies...well, with Slutskaya "undecided", it's hard to tell. If she is out and Sokolova's in, I would think the favorite would have to be Cupcake. Volchkova, who knows if she's planning on competing this year? No one else has the senior international experience. It will be nice to see if Martinova and Biktargova (spelling???) start coming into their own at a more senior level.

Men....with no Plushenko, if Klimkin competes this season, I would call him the favorite, although none of the top names (other than Plush) are known for consistancy. As much as I love Griazev, and always will, the later part of this past season was hellacious, and I'm pretty sure he's dropped to underdog status....but perhaps that will be a good thing for him. (I hope). Dobrin, Uspenski, Shubin have all had a lot of ups and downs, and not enough ups to really be considered favorites I think.

Mathman · Jun 4, 2006

Joe said:
Sasha 2-1
Kimmie 4-1
Katie- 6-1
Emily 6-1
Alissa 8-1
Bebe 9-1

Your odds are perfect, Joe. We just need to let Sasha go off at 5 to 2 instead of 2 to 1. (As it is, the probabilities add up to slightly more than 100% -- 103%, in fact. By changing the odds on Sasha a little we can leave room for Michelle to sneak in there at 55 to 1.)

Now, if you want to play the daily double you can bet on Sasha and Johnny for a combined odds of 19 to 2. A $2 bet brings you $19 if they both come in. :rock:

slutskayafan21 · Jun 4, 2006

My first temptation is to state, with some amount of dissapointment, as I sort of prefer Suguri's skating to Asada's in some ways, is that giving Suguri 3-1 odds to win the Japanese title vs 2-1 odds for Asada personally I too close, that I would expect the gap would be a bit more then that. Then again I recall Suguri winning Nationals this year, so who knows. The judges at Japanese Nationals may have had who was going to the Olympics on their mind as well, only they know I suppose.

ladybug · Jun 5, 2006

The USFSA has been hyping Kimmie for two years now. Since she won Worlds I think she will be the clear favorite. The US ladies need a new face to push and keep people interested. Sasha (if she skates), Emily and Katie will be the underdogs.

I don't think the USFSA likes Johnny's outspoken ways and have called him on the carpet a couple of times. With Evan doing better internationally, that gives them a reason to make him the favorite. Johnny will be the underdog.

Mao will be the clear favorite in Japan. She would have been the favorite at the Olympics if she was able to go. Fumie will be the underdog.

Joanie will be the favorite in Canada as well as Buttle. Everyone else will be an underdog.

As for Russia, it could be anyone. Maybe Victoria V. will be the favorite since she will be working with TT this year.

Ladybug

Joesitz (RIP) · Jun 5, 2006

Ladybug - You seem to imply that the Federations have the ultimate influence on who is a favorite by their hypes. I suppose that has an influence on the unofficial naming of the skater who will look the best going into a competition. But don't you think there is some influence by the past accomplishments?

It's hard to dismiss the medals over the years as having no influence on the prowess of the skater. I think one has to consider many things before anoiting one the favorite skater going into the competition.

Sasha has many medals; Kimmie not as many. Sasha has great commericals; Kimmie has none that I know of. Sasha has more fans that Kimmie, I think. Sasha is already the defending champion. Kimmie was basically lackluster except for Calgary. I think you can agree to the last statement.

I'm not putting Kimmie down. I'm just saying a few factual considerations.

Joe

chuckm · Jun 5, 2006

Kimmie skated very well at Torino, as well as at Calgary. She finished top 6, beating many skaters who had beaten her in the GP, and that was her first Senior international competition.

Kimmie has medals that Sasha does not have: two National championships (Junior and Novice), a Junior World medal and World gold. Kimmie has competed at two Senior Nationals and has a bronze and a silver. Kimmie's achievements after two years on the Senior level overshadow Sasha's for the same time period in Sasha's career.

slutskayafan21 · Jun 5, 2006

Collectively I would easily take 2 World medals(a silver and bronze)an Olympic silver, a Senior U.S gold, and a Senior U.S silver; over a World gold, a U.S silver, and U.S bronze and any "junior" results that go with that. However Meissner at a young age has already won the big prize that Sasha probably wont ever win, so that is a feather in her hat.

chuckm · Jun 5, 2006

My point was that Kimmie, having been in Seniors two years (and only one year at Senior Internationals) has achieved more than Sasha when Sasha was at the same stage in her career. Sasha was 17 at her first Olympics and first Worlds, and finished 4th in each. Kimmie was 16 at her first Olympics, where she finished 6th, and she won her first Worlds. Sasha also had the benefit of two senior GP seasons under her belt before she competed at her first Worlds, while Kimmie had just one.

I am sure that Kimmie will have many more medals when she is in her 6th season competing at the senior level.

slutskayafan21 · Jun 5, 2006

That is all true although it is interesting Jenny Kirk(who is 1 year older then Cohen but came up at the same time) was undefeated vs Cohen up until the 2002 Nationals, wasnt she? I find that surprising.

I agree that after her 6th year on the senior scene Meissner will have accomplished more then Cohen has after her 6 years on the senior scene though since she is too mentaly tough to throw away as many opportunities as Cohen, and her basic technique is more solid even at a young age.

chuckm · Jun 5, 2006

slutskayafan21 said:
That is all true although it is interesting Jenny Kirk(who is 1 year older then Cohen but came up at the same time) was undefeated vs Cohen up until the 2002 Nationals, wasnt she? I find that surprising.

.

Where did you get that piece of misinformation?

Cohen and Kirk skated at their first Senior Nationals in 2000. Cohen was 2nd and Kirk was 7th. Sasha missed 2001 Nationals because of her back injury; Kirk was 4th after Kwan, Hughes and Nikodinov. In 2002, Cohen was again 2nd, and Kirk was 5th, after Hughes and Nikodinov.

Kwanford Wife · Jun 5, 2006

Since I'm terrible in math & haven't been blown away by any of the newbies, I define favorite vs. underdog by deciding who's win would shock me less.

So here's my US list... (too early to even begin to evaluate the international scene... but I'll be surprised if Mao lives up to all this hype... don't you people ever learn...)

US Ladies

Getting the divas out of the way...
If Kwan is healthy ~ hands down favorite. If she's not: underdog
If Sasha shows up ~ hands down favorite

If neither show up...

Kimmie / Emily as favorites
Katy/Bebe - underdogs who could pull it off
Alissa - underdog who could pull it off & shock me in the process

US Men
Johnny/Evan - hands down co-favorite

Joesitz (RIP) · Jun 5, 2006

MM

A daily double of Bebe and Tommy would pay a lot, and I'd like to see it.

Kimmie and Evan would not pay much not even Kimmie and Johnny.

Mao and Takaheshi over Suguri and Oda, the latter paying a nice win.

Joe

Mathman · Jun 5, 2006

Joesitz said:
A daily double of Bebe and Tommy would pay a lot, and I'd like to see it.

Kimmie and Evan would not pay much not even Kimmie and Johnny.

Joe, using the odds you offered, a $2 bet on Kimmie and Evan would pay $28, and a $2 bet on Bebe and Tommy would pay $218.

Kwanford said:
...(too early to even begin to evaluate the international scene... but I'll be surprised if Mao lives up to all this hype... don't you people ever learn...)

No, no, us people never learn! Not when we can see the next Tonya Harding right before our very eyes!

Mao will be the favorite for the next world championship because of four little words: Tri Ple Ax El. The triple Axel for ladies will become what the quad is for men, except that more than one man in the world can land a quad. The CoP guarentees it.

If you have a triple Axel, right there you've got 7.5 points before you even start counting. But that's not the main thing. The main thing is that if you have a triple Axel, all of your other jump layout problems are solved. If you don't have a triple Axel, you have to waste one of your seven jumping passes on a double Axel. Now you've got 6 passes to do 7 triples (or 5, if it's the Olympic gold medal you're after), but there are only five different kinds of triples you can do, you can only repeat two of them, and these two repeats must be in combination -- you've got your work cut out for you.

But with a triple Axel -- well, even if you fall you still get 3.5 points, which is more than your competitor got with her double Axel and only half a point less than than she got for that triple toe that she desperately tried to tack on to her triple flip. Plus, now you've got 6 jumping passes to do 6 triples -- you can cream the competition and not even have to do a triple-triple.

Plus, in Mao's case, you can double up on your loop and you don't have to do a triple toe at all, if you don't want to be dinged for a pre-rotated take-off.

And even in the worst case scenario -- you bail on your 3A and do a double -- you're still ahead of the other girl who bailed on her triple lutz and only got 3.0 points for a double.

MM

slutskayafan21 · Jun 5, 2006

chuckm said:
Where did you get that piece of misinformation?

Cohen and Kirk skated at their first Senior Nationals in 2000. Cohen was 2nd and Kirk was 7th. Sasha missed 2001 Nationals because of her back injury; Kirk was 4th after Kwan, Hughes and Nikodinov. In 2002, Cohen was again 2nd, and Kirk was 5th, after Hughes and Nikodinov.

I wasnt sure, that is why I was asking you to verify if that was the case. A friend of mine who is a Kirk fan was telling me that it took Cohen until the 02 Nationals to first beat Kirk, but then sadly Kirk never beat Cohen again, and I was surprised at that since Cohen seemed so far ahead of Kirk by 2002 anyway, it was hard to believe she would not have beaten her until then. I only remember their competing at the 2000 World juniors with Kirk winning with 7 triples, and Cohen coming 6th with 3 triples in the final long.

R.D. · Jun 5, 2006

Sasha has great commericals; Kimmie has none that I know of.

Not true. Kimmie has a Subway commercial running here in Maryland. I've seen it twice now.

Mathman · Jun 5, 2006

Red Dog said:
Not true. Kimmie has a Subway commercial running here in Maryland. I've seen it twice now.

What does she say, "I went on the Subway diet and lost 60 pounds?" :laugh:

After: http://www.udel.edu/PR/UDaily/2004/Meissner,Kimberlylg.jpg

(Sorry, I couldn't find a "before" picture.)

R.D. · Jun 5, 2006

No, something like "I go there every day before practice." (Not a direct quote, mind you, but a paraphrase)

I actually missed it on tape (but saw it live) while I was watching Survivor a couple weeks ago. If I caught it I would have uploaded it. But I haven't seen it since.

Kwanford Wife · Jun 5, 2006

Red Dog said:
No, something like "I go there every day before practice." (Not a direct quote, mind you, but a paraphrase)

I actually missed it on tape (but saw it live) while I was watching Survivor a couple weeks ago. If I caught it I would have uploaded it. But I haven't seen it since.

Yay Survivor! I love Survivor!

Kwanford Wife · Jun 5, 2006

Mathman said:
Joe, using the odds you offered, a $2 bet on Kimmie and Evan would pay $28, and a $2 bet on Bebe and Tommy would pay $218. No, no, us people never learn! Not when we can see the next Tonya Harding right before our very eyes!

Mao will be the favorite for the next world championship because of four little words: Tri Ple Ax El. The triple Axel for ladies will become what the quad is for men, except that more than one man in the world can land a quad. The CoP guarentees it.

If you have a triple Axel, right there you've got 7.5 points before you even start counting. Plus, in Mao's case, you can double up on your loop and you don't have to do a triple toe at all, if you don't want to be dinged for a pre-rotated take-off.

And even in the worst case scenario -- you bail on your 3A and do a double -- you're still ahead of the other girl who bailed on her triple lutz and only got 3.0 points for a double.

MM

Too much math... Too much counting.... make it stop... yup, I hate CoP...

Having said that ~ based on my skating experience, its always the most hyped that fades away the fastest... two years ago we were talking about Miki, Caro & Joanne. The year before that Ann Patrice & Jenny. Now its Mao. I don't care if you can throw a perfect quint axel, quad lutz ~ its impossible to rate how a skater will perform at the senior level until they've actually been at the senior level a season or two... the only exception to that rule is Tara Lipinski,imo.

The only thing I'm looking forward to next season is who amongst the newbies will show that special "it" or spark to mark them as the next big thing ~ and its never jumps that defines that ~ it is overall skating & ability to jump off the ice and demand one's attention. (And by jump, I don't mean that literally) If skating becomes a sheer jumping contest, then the coolest part about skating is lost... which is sad, at least to this rabid fan...

So Who's an Underdog and Who's a Favorite at Nationals?

Joesitz (RIP)

Kasey

Mathman

slutskayafan21

Match Penalty

ladybug

Joesitz (RIP)

chuckm

slutskayafan21

Match Penalty

chuckm

slutskayafan21

Match Penalty

chuckm

Kwanford Wife

Joesitz (RIP)

Mathman

slutskayafan21

Match Penalty

R.D.

Mathman

R.D.

Kwanford Wife

Kwanford Wife

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