So Who's an Underdog and Who's a Favorite at Nationals?

[SeaniBu]

Will Suguri be able to upset Asada at Japanese Nationals and show the veterans still have some kick left.

Where is the praying emoticon?

I should be so lucky, and she really does have the right stuff, you talk about need of a change in choreography. I know Nihpon connects, but what about the rest of the world?

Come on lady, show the world you are the one!!!!!!

 

[R.D.]

This past year, I'm afraid, was probably her (Suguri's) best opportunity to win the Worlds. But alas, it didn't work out. Now I think she'll face much tougher competition from the likes of fellow competitors (a "full field" so to speak). Likeable, certainly, but some posters on this forum have been critical of her "drive" (I think this was another topic).

 

[Vash01]

Well next years Nationals around the World will be interesting.


Will Lambiel be able to upset Othman for the Swiss mens title considering the judges hatred of him.


Will Weir be able to upset Lysacek and defend his U.S mens title.


.

The first one (about Lambiel upsetting Othman) has to be the biggest joke I have read all day. So you think the Swiss judges hate him so much that they will try to place him lower than Othman, who did not even make the cut for the LP at worlds this year?

Weir is the three time US national champion. If he beats Lysacek, it can hardly be considered an upset, regardless of how many other medals Lysacek has won.

Vash

 

[slutskayafan21]

The first one (about Lambiel upsetting Othman) has to be the biggest joke I have read all day. So you think the Swiss judges hate him so much that they will try to place him lower than Othman, who did not even make the cut for the LP at worlds this year?

Absolutely. Othman is very new and will improve quickly I predict since I have ready many Swiss-translated articles that are very high on him. Combine that with the incredably biased judging against him Lambiel has always had to overcome and I think Othman will be the slight favorite for the Swiss title next year.

Weir is the three time US national champion. If he beats Lysacek, it can hardly be considered an upset, regardless of how many other medals Lysacek has won.

I dont agree, now that Lysacek has his much higher world standing solidified after beating Weir multiple times in a row on the World stage it will be an upset.

 

[slutskayafan21]

This past year, I'm afraid, was probably her (Suguri's) best opportunity to win the Worlds. But alas, it didn't work out. Now I think she'll face much tougher competition from the likes of fellow competitors (a "full field" so to speak). Likeable, certainly, but some posters on this forum have been critical of her "drive" (I think this was another topic).

While I agree here next years Worlds will be her last opportunity to do so, even if it is not as big as this past year. After that it will be almost impossable.

 

[Joesitz (RIP)]

While I'm hoping that you all understand that this is not a prediction thread of winning the respective Nationals, I can't helpl but think that you can't say (not predict) who looks like the favorite BEFORE any competition. There was so much discussion on whether Michelle or Tara was the favorite before the 98 Olys, duh.

do think that it is way to early to make any sensible prediction about who will emerge as a favorite or an underdog come next winter.

You've seen last years Nats; the Olys; the 2006 Worlds and still can say (not predict) who is the favorite-who is he underdog?

Pray tell me when? Will it be after the results?

Joe

 

[Joesitz (RIP)]

While I agree here next years Worlds will be her last opportunity to do so, even if it is not as big as this past year. After that it will be almost impossable.

SFfan21 - Please ignore any post talking about winning anything. There will be plenty of posts about winning beginning in less than 4 months. Just tell us who you think is the favorite and underdog for the Japanese Nationals. Not who is going to win?

Joe

 

[Mathman]

Joe, I guess I'm not completely clear as to what you mean by "the favorite." This usually means the person that most people expect to win, yes? Like in a horse race, the favorite is the horse that the majority of the people are betting on.

So you are asking us to say who we think most people expect to win, but not who we ourselves expect to win, is that right?

Based on 2006 U.S. Nationals, the Olympics and Worlds, I do not think that a clear-cut favorite has emerged yet between Sasha and Kimmie, or between Evan and Johnny. (Or even between Mao and Fumie.)

My expectation is that most people will change their minds about this as the season progresses.

MM

 

[MKFSfan]

I agree, MM, that predictions/expectations could change come fall, but think in hindsight-some people were predicting a year ago Kimmie would win the Olympics. Many thought Irina was a shoe-in for Olympic Gold. I wonder how many thought Shiz would win, after Worlds 2005 or even after the not spectatcular fall season she had. So, in a way, it's kinda fun to predict who may be able to head into their Nationals as a favorite and then revisit this thread a year from now.

I think if Mao has a great GPS again, she will be the favorite come Japanese Nationals. Fumie will always be in the mix as she's known to pull it off when it counts. I'd say Nakano for underdog-she has a 3/3 and a 3axle, so she does have the tech to keep pace with Mao. I like her spinning and spiral sequences better, but can't stand that leg wrap. Miki could bounce back, and I really hope she does. Not sure where that puts her, probably underdog now that her federation has dropped her in the...what was that funding category called again?

Is Cynthia expected to compete again in the fall? I don't see her beating Joannie just yet, so I'll pick Joannie as the fave and Cynthia and Mira as the underdogs.

US ladies, I stand behind my original picks-if Michelle doesn't compete, and Sasha does, I think Sasha and Kimmie may share co-favorites as Michelle and Sasha had for the past few years. Even if Sasha skips the GPs and Kimmie does well, the press will be all over Sasha at Nationals, too, so she'll have a lot of pressure to deliver, even if she has a slight underdog status as Michelle did in 2004-remember, that was supposed to be Sasha's year. She won a couple of GP events and was 2nd in the final. Everyone expected Nationals to be Sasha's crowning moment, and she was 4th the year before at Worlds while Michelle was the reigning World Champ.

 

[demarinis5]

The media will annoint Kimmie the favorite and Sasha (if she competes) the underdog. I have not put MK in the equation because I really do not think she will be competing next season due to her injuries. It is a fact that Kimmie
can deliver the goods and that will put her in a position of favorite. JMO.

As for the men I think the favorite will be Evan with Johnny as the underdog.

 

[chuckm]

If Sasha plans to skate at all this coming season and accepts her "A" envelope funding, she is contractually obligated to skate at Campbell's and the Winter Cheesefest before Nationals. She can skip the GP and skate at both cheesefests because they lie outside the GP time frame.

However, I suspect that Sasha may be planning to take at least a whole year off from skating. I also think Kwan will not compete at all this season because she has not completely recovered from her injuries.

In the absence of Sasha and Michelle, Kimmie will be the logical favorite, Emily the underdog, and Katy Taylor the dark horse and potential upsetter. Alissa will not be seen as a podium candidate at all. As others have said, all this hinges on GP performances in the months leading up to Nationals, and according to the selection criteria, Katy is likely to get only one GP event.

BTW I consider it totally ludicrous that Jamal Othman, who finished 11th and last at Skate Canada 2005, 12th and last at TEB 2005, 21st at Euros, 27th at Torino (where he didn't make it out of the SP), and 28th at Worlds (where he also failed to make it to the FS) should be a favorite to win ANYTHING over the 2005-2006 GPF Champion, 2006 European and Olympic silver medalist, and two-time and current World Champion.

 

[slutskayafan21]

Perhaps a more interesting questions regarding the womens event at U.S Nationals is who is the favorite if Meissner, Kwan, and Cohen were all to show up, or if a combination of two of them shows up.

 

[R.D.]

That's easy. Kwan would obviously be the SENTIMENTAL favorite (the "underdog" that people really want to win), and either Cohen or Meissner would be the "real" favorite. If ALL three show up, Kwan would still be the SF, but I think it would depend on how the season goes who's given the "Favorite" title.

 

[slutskayafan21]

Well Red Dog you said earlier this year Kwan was the clear "competitive" favorite going into Nationals(I think I agreed at the time too), not that I am saying things havent changed that much since then, just that is interesting how quick it has spun around in just one year.

 

[CDMM1991]

Kwan will definitely be an underdog if she shows up. And they will play her up in that role to no end no doubt. Sasha and Kmmie will be equal favorites if they are both there, and otherwise at the moment I would project Kimmie to be the favorite if neither appear.

Lysacek will be the favorite for the men's crown, unless Weir shows that he is in a completely different league during the GPs.

As for Canadian women, Joannie will definitely be the favorite, whether Cynthia returns or not, which I believe is the plan. Mira will be the underdog.

For Canadian men, I think it will be the same old healthy rivalry, giving a bit of an edge to Jeff in the favorite department, though I don't think he'll be that distinct of a favorite because Emanuel did beat him at Worlds. The battle between Shawn Sawyer and Christopher Mabee for that third spot is the one I'll be watching. My money is on Chris Mabee.

In terms of Japanese ladies I'd have to give the edge to Mao as being the favorite. It just makes sense, especially with how Mao has shown us she likes to perform on the GP, especially in comparison to Suguri. Depending on how she performs on the GPS, I see Suguri filling the role of the underdog.

I project Oda will be the favorite for Japanese men, with Takahashi very close. It will be a healthy rivalry. An unknown that shows promise in the GPs will be the underdog.

 

[slutskayafan21]

I see no reason Sandhu would ever go into a Canadians as of now as the "favorite". Yet he beat Buttle at Worlds and at Skate Canada, but Buttle had his worst two competitions of the year at those two events, and still lost at Skate Canada by only a fraction and Worlds by one placing. In Canada judges seperate their PCS even more then World judges do. Buttle is a reigning Olympic medalist and recent(2001)World medalist and GP final medalist. Unless Sandhu does something remarkable on the GP circuit I dont see how he would be the labeled favorite going into Canadian Nationals personally.

 

[R.D.]

Well Red Dog you said earlier this year Kwan was the clear "competitive" favorite going into Nationals(I think I agreed at the time too), not that I am saying things havent changed that much since then, just that is interesting how quick it has spun around in just one year.

Isn't it? But here's the killer that a couple of posters need to understand: THE SAME THING CAN HAPPEN ONE YEAR FROM NOW.

 

[Tonichelle]

For men's, I bet Johnny is the favorite leaving Evan to challenge him (I hope he wins!).

I think in most US media circles it will be the opposite due to Evan's comeback at the olympics AND worlds, and Johnny's "poor" showings... the American media knows and cares diddly about the sport and will hype Evan up...

I think they are so evenly matched that it'll be a toss up and it will come down to who skates the cleanest... JMHO

 

[Joesitz (RIP)]

Joe, I guess I'm not completely clear as to what you mean by "the favorite." This usually means the person that most people expect to win, yes? Like in a horse race, the favorite is the horse that the majority of the people are betting on.

You got it. As a little boy, my mother told me to go to the bookies and place a 2dollar bet on a horse. (We were not on the right side of the tracks.) I learned the meaning of odds and did quite well in Advanced Algebra. something my mother wouldn't even care to know about. She was good, though, broke even most of the time.

Like MK and TL in 97, they were the tops for the gold but who was favored to win before the competition? (Lu Chen, I believe slipped to be an also ran before the competition) In this case there really was not favorite and definitely no underdog. It was even odds.

there is no reason why anyone can not put forth whom they think will be the favorite (NOT the winner).

So you are asking us to say who we think most people expect to win, but not who we ourselves expect to win, is that right?

Yeah, kind of that. Nothing do with winning but what will you think of the odds before the bookies decide.

Based on 2006 U.S. Nationals, the Olympics and Worlds, I do not think that a clear-cut favorite has emerged yet between Sasha and Kimmie, or between Evan and Johnny. (Or even between Mao and Fumie.)

My expectation is that most people will change their minds about this as the season progresses. MM

Of course. this was meant to be a fun thread. Not a serious one. Allow me to put into the odds, which you of all people could disagree with me over the possibilities and change the odds to your liking. After knowing what I know this is how I wouldplace the odds.

Sasha 2-1
Kimmie 4-1
Katie- 6-1
Emily 6-1
Alissa 8-1
Bebe 9-1

The above is just what I think they will give to skaters in Las Vegas.

Of course, some odds will change after the GPs, but not everyone is at their best in the GPs and some are luckier than others in the GPs.

With that in mind:

Lysacek 2-1
Weir 2-1
Steenberg - 10-1
Carriere -10-1

Rochette - 2-1
Leung - 6-1
Phaneuf - 10-1

Sandhu 4-1
Buttle 4-1
Sawuer - 10-1
Mabee - 10-1

Asada - 2-1
Suguri - 3-1
Ando - 8-6
Ota - 10-1
Onda - 8-6

Oda - 2-1
takehashi - 2-1
(don't know any others).

Now, Please disagree with my summation and put your changes in. You can change your odds after the GPs if you think it will change any. I just don't.

Joe

 

[chuckm]

Joesitz:
"Of course. this was meant to be a fun thread. Not a serious one. Allow me to put into the odds, which you of all people could disagree with me over the possibilities and change the odds to your liking. After knowing what I know this is how I wouldplace the odds.

Sasha 2-1
Kimmie 4-1
Katie- 6-1
Emily 6-1
Alissa 8-1
Bebe 9-1

The above is just what I think they will give to skaters in Las Vegas.

Of course, some odds will change after the GPs, but not everyone is at their best in the GPs and some are luckier than others in the GPs.

With that in mind:

Lysacek 2-1
Weir 2-1
Steenberg - 10-1
Carriere -10-1

Rochette - 2-1
Leung - 6-1
Phaneuf - 10-1

Sandhu 4-1
Buttle 4-1
Sawuer - 10-1
Mabee - 10-1

Asada - 2-1
Suguri - 3-1
Ando - 8-6
Ota - 10-1
Onda - 8-6

Oda - 2-1
takehashi - 2-1
(don't know any others).

Now, Please disagree with my summation and put your changes in. You can change your odds after the GPs if you think it will change any. I just don't."

By making the odds on Ando and Onda 8-6, you are saying that they both have a better chance of winning than Asada and Suguri. 8-6 is 1.33-1. IMO, Anda and Onda should be at 8-1, not 8-6.