I have to agree. The numbers don't lie, and looking at the numbers, Caroline is about on par with Jenna McCorkell and Min-Jung Kwak at the moment. She's young and has time to improve, but she still has a long way to go. In the SP she was fairly impressive b/c it seems she is usually able to pull out the 3 jumps needed in the SP, but in the LP it seems that she just can't keep it together, and in the 2nd half of the program her jumps abandon her. She also looks more labored on the ice than she used to, I think some of it is due to the much sturdier body type she has now.
In the next few years I could see her going to Worlds and placing decently there and maybe getting back on the podium at US nats, but I don't think she'll ever be a world beater, and don't expect her to ever medal at Worlds or win nationals. JMPO but that's how I see it.
She used to do so well because she could do 3-3s (albeit with poor technique), her spins and spirals were exceptional, and she was consistent with her jumps. Now, she can't do 3-3s or even a proper 3lz, and while her spins and spirals are still good, they aren't as good as they used to be, and she's inconsistent with her jumps. She has time but the US is always a deep field and there's a good chance she could get lost in the shuffle, at least until she gets used to the new technique.
Yeah, it's a dire dire situation for her. Not only does she have to make her skating seem less labored, but she would also have to learn to rotate and land her jumps again and execute them well enough to stop getting -GOEs. All of that that would only get her close to a top 6 finish at your average Grand Prix event. What I am getting at is that even if she manages to gel her jump technique with incredibly hard work, (being consistent with a new technique is one of the most difficult challenges a skater has to face) she'll still end up in the middle of the pack and nowhere close to the top because her skating in general is sluggish and uninspiring. (She is very far from looking like she moves with ease, fluidity, and verve. To succeed, a skater has to look nimble and agile on the ice.)