Which country will lead in medals at Sochi?

CanadianSkaterGuy said:

While I think Russia has outside chances in some disciplines, I really think the only discipline they have a decent chance is gold in pairs and a bronze in ice dance. There is nothing that leads me to believe that a current Russian man (even Plushenko, who might have had a chance before his surgery left him as a question) could win a medal of any colour. The Russian girls are in the same boat. In terms of skaters potentially winning, I consider the condition they're in and their current state relative to other skaters (instead of things like how high they could hypothetically score, or how high they scored in non-recent competitions). Liza/Sotnikova have a huge PCS hurdle that they will literally have to jump over (they are very lucky that Kostner/Asada aren't entirely consistent otherwise they would easily be shut out of the medals 100%). Plushenko will also have to up his technical game and rely on the other top guys to make mistakes. When skaters need to rely on others to make mistakes when they are at their best, I don't exactly consider them as "chances" per say.

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Moment said:

Patrick Chan with decent performances will receive higher PCS than any other male skater, if members of Golden Skate or FSUniverse like it or not.

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CaroLiza_fan said:

Thankfully, sport is not an exact science. If it was, it would be boring, as you would know what the results were going to be before they happened. But, there are certain things that we can expect based on past performances.

It is not nice to want misfortune to fall on others. And I do not like people that think like that. But, things do happen. And, in those instances, some people will get a bigger chance to medal than they would have otherwise.

All things being equal, the results of the ladies should be pretty straightforward:

Fighting for Gold: Asada and Kim (preferably in that order)
Fighting for Bronze: Suzuki and Kostner (preferably in that order)
Fighting for 5th: Sotnikova, Tuktamysheva and Wagner (preferably in that order)

So, in reality, the Russian ladies will be competing for 5th place. But, if a couple of the ladies that I consider to be the "top 4" don't have a clean skate skate (probably Miss Kostner!), or have a lingering injury, then there is a chance that one of the Russians (or Wagner) might pinch the Bronze.

In the Men's, it is not quite as straightforward. We should know who the top 5 are going to be: (in alphabetical order) Chan, Fernandez, Hanyu, Plushenko and Takahashi. It is just a case of what order they finish in. And a lot of that will be down to 2 factors - how fit Plushy is; and how the judges mark Chan.

If Plushenko is fully fit and skating at his best, and the judges don't over-mark Chan, then Plushy has every chance of winning Gold. If not, then he will probably be fighting with the Japanese over the Bronze medal.

In the Pairs, all things being equal, we know the fight for the Gold will be between Volosozhar/Trankov of Russia and Savchenko/Szolkowy of Germany. But, if last year's Worlds are anything to go by, the fight for the Bronze medal should be close, and should include:

both Canadian pairs (Duhamel/Radford and Moore-Towers/Moscovitch);
Pang/Tong (in what is bound to be their final Olympics);
and (if Russia selects them) Kawaguchi/Smirnov

I really hope Russia do select Yuko and Alexander. After all they've done for Russian Pairs skating, it would be a travesty if they were not given the chance to bow out on "home ice" at the Olympics. OK, so they probably won't get the medal - it will probably go to one of the Canadian Pairs. But you never know what might happen.

As for Dance, all things being equal, we know the fight for the Gold will be between Davis/White of America and Virtue/Moir of Canada. But, there should be a verocious battle for the Bronze medal! The couples that came 3rd to 6th in last year's Worlds should all be involved:

Bobrova/Soloviev of Russia;
Cappellini/Lanotte of Italy;
Weaver/Poje of Canada;
Péchalat/Bourzat of France

...and joining them in the battle should be the other Russian couple, Ilinykh/Katsalapov. They really should have been in the group fighting for the Bronze at last year's World's, but it just didn't go their way. Hopefully they will have re-grouped and will come back stronger for Olympics year. And if they do, that will be both Russian couples fighting for the podium in Dance.

That said, I would personally love to see Péchalat/Bourzat get the Bronze. I've been a big fan of their's through the years, and would love to see them sign off with an Olympic medal.

As for the Team Competition, it should be Russia's, based on what I said in summing up my previous comment.


Apologies for going off on a tangent there. I realise that going through each category trying to predict results is not what this thread was intended for (there is another thread for that!) But, I was just trying to respond to CanadianSkaterGuy's reply by explaining the reasoning behind my previous comment. So, sorry.


Celine: You are being too cynical. He may not be the most likable person in the world, but I'm sure Putin is sensible enough to realise that there ain't going to be a boycott by anybody! Like, would you give up the chance to compete at the Olympics?! And, more importantly, would America give up the chance to show the world that they are better at something than everybody else?!

It's just the media stirring things up (as usual!), and politicians jumping on the bandwagon to try to get that wee bit more support (as usual!)

CaroLiza_fan

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Jammers said:

The two Russian girls can't even beat Gracie yet they are going to be in the top 5? And where is Murakami who is also better then the 2 Russian girls?

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DobrinFan said:

Liza is skating to Malaguena. That's no better. And her short program music/program is as bad as Sotnikova's LP music from last season and Makarova's M. Monroe program.

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