What Skaters will skate which events In the Olympic Team Event Competition?

[dorispulaski]

From ISU Communication 2388 "

B. Figure Skating Team Event The ISU will inform ISU Members/NOCs after the ISU Grand Prix of Figure Skating Final 2021/22 (in Osaka / Japan – December 9-12, 2021) regarding the qualified Teams for the Olympic Figure Skating Team Event. For more details regarding this event, please refer to the Qualification System - Figure Skating available on our website.

From the linked way the 10 best teams are calculated:

.3.3 The ten (10) NOCs will qualify to enter their Teams based on the qualifying points scoring scale as outlined in Annex A scored by its best one (1) skater in Women Single Skating, best one (1) skater in Men Single Skating, best Pair Skating couple and best Ice Dance couple primarily at the: • ISU World Figure Skating Championships 2021 (season 2020/2021) and the • ISU Grand Prix of Figure Skating events and Final season 2021/2022 Plus, if necessary, the following events: • ISU European Figure Skating Championships/ISU Four Continents Figure Skating Championships 2021 (season 2020/2021) • ISU World Junior Figure Skating Championships 2021 (season 2020/2021) • ISU Junior Grand Prix of Figure Skating season 2021/2022 (only in individual events but not the Final)

Rockerskating says that following Nebelhorn, exactly 10 countries had qualified to in Olympics in at least three disciplines, so no calculations are needed of exact placings:

Qualification for the 2022 Winter Olympics: Figure skating — Rocker Skating - Analysis by Jackie Wong

Figure skating qualification of spots for the 2022 Olympic Winter Games

www.rockerskating.com

Those are:

CAN, CHN, CZE, GEO, GER, ITA, JPN, ROC (Generic designation of Russia due to ban), UKR, USA

Note, France did not qualify. They qualified two men, and one dance team, but did not qualify in pairs or ladies.

Note Korea did not qualify, since their dance team did not qualify at Nebelhorn, and they are not borrowing a North Korean pair this year, not do they have a pair of their own who qualified. They qualified 2 Men and 2 Women for Olympics.

So what strategies do you think each team will employ? Of course, the individual national championships will play a big part in each country's choices, but also some countries may ignore poor performances at nationals by favorites. Countries that have more than one qualifier in a discipline have the interesting choice of having two different skaters skate the short and the long in two of the four disciplines. Countries that did not qualify a skater or team for the non team events also have an interesting choice about filling that spot for the team event.

To help in your predictions:
ROC (Russia) has qualified 3 Women, 3 Men, 3 Pairs, 3 dance
USA has qualified 3 Men, 3 Ice Dance, 3 Women, 2 Pairs
JPN has qualified 3 Men, 3 Women, 1 Dance, 1 Pair (they are not sending the second pair they qualified at Worlds)
CAN has qualified 3 Dance, 2 Pairs, 2 Men,1 Woman
CHN has qualified 2 Pairs, 1 Man, 1 Woman, 1 Dance
ITA has qualified 2 Pairs, 2 Men, 1 Dance, did not qualify a woman
GEO has qualified 1 Dance, 1 Man, 1 Woman, 1 Pair
UKR has qualified 1 Dance, 1 Man, 1 Woman, did not qualify a Pair
CZE has qualified 1 Dance, 1 Man, 1 Woman,1 pair
GER has qualified 1 dance, 1 Woman, 1 Pair, did not qualify a man


If you were choosing a particular country's team, what would you do and why?

 

[ice coverage]

... To help in your predictions:
... CZE has qualified 1 Dance, 1 Man, 1 Woman, did not qualify a Pair
GER has qualified 1 Man, 1 Woman, 1 Pair, did not qualify a dance team ...

- CZE *did* qualify for 1 Pair spot (via 2021 Worlds) -- in addition to its spots in other disciplines.

- GER *did* qualify for 1 Dance spot (via 2021 Worlds) -- in addition to 1 Women's spot and 1 Pairs spot.
GER *did not* qualify for any Men's spot.

... ROC (Russia) has qualified 3 Women, 3 Men, 3 Pairs,
USA has qualified 3 Men, 3 Ice Dance, 3 Women, 2 Pairs
JPN has qualified 3 Men, 3 Women, 1 Dance, 1 Pair (they are not sending the second pair they qualified at Worlds) ...

- ROC qualified for 3 Dance spots -- in addition to its spots in other disciplines. (I'm sure that this omission was just an accident.)

- JPN never was entitled to send 2 Pairs to 2022 Olympics.
At 2021 Worlds, JPN earned an Olympic spot for 1 Pair -- plus the opportunity for a different pair to compete at Nebelhorn to try for a second Olympic spot.
JPN did not enter a pair at Nebelhorn, and thus was not able to earn a second Olympic slot.
(afaik: JPN had no pair to compete at Nebelhorn because it does not have another senior pair besides Miura/Kihara anyway.)

... Note Korea did not qualify, since their dance team did not qualify at Nebelhorn, and they are not borrowing a North Korean pair this year. ...

The North Korean pair had absolutely nothing to do with the Team Event at 2018 Olympics.
(I am a fan of Ryom/Kim.)

South Korea had its own pair of Kyueun Kim/Alex Kam -- who competed both in the Team Event and in the individual event for Pairs.
(As an aside, an image of the playful Alex Kam from 2018 Olympics went viral.)

 

[dorispulaski]

If Japan had a second pair, they could have sent them.

Korea does not currently have a pair skating. North Korea has not completed this season either

https://results.isu.org/isujsstat/pbspto.htm

Otherwise, you are right. I should not have posted this before I had a chance to proofread it. Clearly, I should never post while watching a free dance competition.

 

[ice coverage]

If Japan had a second pair, they could have sent them. ...

If you are referring to Nebelhorn, then Yes.

If you are referring to 2022 Olympics, then No.
After 2021 Worlds, Japan was not yet entitled to send a second pair to 2022 Olympics.
And after 2021 Nebelhorn, it definitely was not entitled to do so.

---

Korea does not currently have a pair skating. North Korea has not completed this season either

https://results.isu.org/isujsstat/pbspto.htm

I just wanted to be clear about 2018 Olympics.
And in terms of figure skating, I do not think there ever has been a rule for 2018 or for 2022 that would have allowed South Korea to "borrow" anyone from North Korea.
At 2018 Olympics, women's hockey was the only sport for which a unified team of South and North Korea was allowed.

 

[Ziotic]

Russia;
Dance = S/K, D/S
Ladies = Valieva
Men = Koylada
Pair= T/M, M/G

May change depending on RusNat results.

USA
Dance= H/D, C/B
Ladies = Alyssa
Men = Nathan, Vincent
Pairs= whoever wins Nat, K/F I think is there hope

Japan
Dance= whoever they send, could go either way but M/T seem to be leading
Pair = R/K
Ladies = wakaba, kaori
Men= Yuzuru, Yuma, if Yuzu goes, if not then Yuma and Shoma

I think that’s the podium

Canada
Ladies = Schizas
Men = Keegan, Roman
Dance= P/P
Pairs= J/R and MT/M, but honestly who knows with the pairs. I doubt J/R have the stamina to do 4 programs.

 

[4everchan]

Canada
Ladies = Schizas
Men = Keegan, Roman
Dance= P/P
Pairs= J/R and MT/M, but honestly who knows with the pairs. I doubt J/R have the stamina to do 4 programs.

I would not be surprised if Canada did send FBS for the free dance... especially if it is assumed the ROC and USA would be ahead of P/P anyways, since France is not there, and perhaps Italy may not make the cut... I am not sure Roman has the stamina for a FP.. I would probably send only Keegan. Re pairs, I do not trust MTM at all right now, but I agree that it is a lot to ask on J/R to do 4 programs... they did look good this weekend though.

 

[Ziotic]

I would not be surprised if Canada did send FBS for the free dance... especially if it is assumed the ROC and USA would be ahead of P/P anyways, since France is not there, and perhaps Italy may not make the cut... I am not sure Roman has the stamina for a FP.. I would probably send only Keegan. Re pairs, I do not trust MTM at all right now, but I agree that it is a lot to ask on J/R to do 4 programs... they did look good this weekend though.

I don’t think Keegan has the stamina for 4 programs either unfortunately.

 

[Arbitrary]

Provided Trusova is OK and fit, she should participate instead of Kolyada in the FP Teams (maybe even SP too).
ISU/IOC would sanction this definitely.
Unfortunately, her participation isn't on the table.,

 

[Lamente Ariane]

If Wakaba makes the Olympic team (which is very much not a given) I don't know if it would be the best idea to put her in the team event given how inconsistent she is. But we'll have a better idea where things stand after Nationals when we know the team.

 

[el henry]

If Yuzu is healthy enough to make the Olympic team, I do not think he needs to participate in the Team Event.

He has nothing left to prove as far as Olympic medals are concerned, and I think Yuma and Shoma are more than capable of placing highly. He should conserve himself for the individual event.

Of course, Yuzu himself may feel differently.

 

[4everchan]

I don’t think Keegan has the stamina for 4 programs either unfortunately.

you are probably very correct...

 

[rain]

Canada:
Women: Schizas (obviously, both programs)
Men: Keegan (SP) He's the most consistent man we have in the SP, Roman (LP) I think it will help him get the nerves out, and his long is often better than his SP. Also, Keegan hasn't been great in the LP so far this season.
Pairs: Such a tossup with how weird the season had been. At this point, I'd definitely put James/Radford in the SP. If MTM can pull it together for nationals I'd look at possibly putting them in the FS, but if they continue as they have, and James/Radford continue to improve, maybe not.
Dance: Gilles/Poirier (RD and FD. I think it's been pretty definitively proven over the years that competing in the team event helps, not hurts the ice dancers, and certainly doesn't tire them too badly. I think Piper and Paul will want to do both and will likely be given the opportunity).

Russia:
Women: It's still very much up the air as to who they will send. I think it's a safe bet, though, that Valieva will do one of the programs, at least.
Men: Kolyada (both) None of the Russian men are that consistent, and the judges love him.
Pairs: I say let one of the young teams (the world champs probably) do both programs.
Dance: I think Sinitsina/Katsalapov with want to do at least one of the programs, especially with the French not qualifying. This is their chance to put themselves ahead in people's minds before Papadakis/Cizeron even have a chance to take the ice. I'd say they will do both, but I don't put it past the Russian Eteri love to get her daughter a gold medal by subbing Davis/Smolkin in somewhere, since I don't think Russia is in any danger of losing the gold)

U.S.:
Women: Alyssa Liu (I think she's a pretty safe bet to make the team). But I could see them subbing in someone like Mariah Bell for the LP.
Men: Will depend a lot on whether Nathan Chen wants to do one or both. I think they'll let him decide.
Pairs: Knierim/Frazier will doubtless do at least one, probably both.
Dance: I'd give both Hubbell/Donohue and Chock/Bates the chance to skate here. Preferably Chock/Bates in the RD and H/D in the FD

Japan:
Women: Kaori (SP), Wakaba (FS)
Men: Kagiyama (honestly, maybe both) but they might sub in Shoma for the FS. I think putting Hanyu in would be dodgy. It'll depend if, first, he's actually on the team, and second, if he will need everything he's got to make it through the individual event.
Pairs: R/K
Dance: Takahashi and partner will be the team

 

[Lamente Ariane]

It's worth noting that the worst placement one can get in the LP still gives one's team 6 points, whereas a low placement in the SP can be worth as little as 1 point, far more damaging in the overall standings. So strategically it would make sense to give the less consistent/more volatile skater the LP.

 

[4everchan]

It's worth noting that the worst placement one can get in the LP still gives one's team 6 points, whereas a low placement in the SP can be worth as little as 1 point, far more damaging in the overall standings. So strategically it would make sense to give the less consistent/more volatile skater the LP.

yup... i never liked that aspect of the event... the competition is really a SP competition.... they should do 10-8-6-4-2 points for the LPs

 

[rain]

I would not be surprised if Canada did send FBS for the free dance... especially if it is assumed the ROC and USA would be ahead of P/P anyways, since France is not there, and perhaps Italy may not make the cut... I am not sure Roman has the stamina for a FP.. I would probably send only Keegan. Re pairs, I do not trust MTM at all right now, but I agree that it is a lot to ask on J/R to do 4 programs... they did look good this weekend though.

I think we have to note that Keegan has not done a particularly good LP yet this season. His short has been his strength (which should really help Canada). I think the dance decision really depends a lot on whether it looks like Italy makes the cut. Because the Italian dance team would beat FBS almost certainly. It's definitely not impossible that an Italian man could beat the Canadian in the short, though Canada has the edge in women's. Pairs is a bit of a crapshoot, though I think James/Radford could give Canada the edge.

 

[4everchan]

I think we have to note that Keegan has not done a particularly good LP yet this season. His short has been his strength (which should really help Canada). I think the dance decision really depends a lot on whether it looks like Italy makes the cut. Because the Italian dance team would beat FBS almost certainly. It's definitely not impossible that an Italian man could beat the Canadian in the short, though Canada has the edge in women's. Pairs is a bit of a crapshoot, though I think James/Radford could give Canada the edge.

i cannot disagree with that. However, to be honest, I do not expect Canada to be in the hunt for a medal. So if that's the case, Skate Canada should choose wisely who needs to skate their Free on Olympic ice... who needs exposure? (piper and paul? ) who needs experience (a second man?) who needs rest? (keegan, J/R ? ) If the race is tight, send the best prospects and go snatch that bronze

 

[rain]

i cannot disagree with that. However, to be honest, I do not expect Canada to be in the hunt for a medal. So if that's the case, Skate Canada should choose wisely who needs to skate their Free on Olympic ice... who needs exposure? (piper and paul? ) who needs experience (a second man?) who needs rest? (keegan, J/R ? ) If the race is tight, send the best prospects and go snatch that bronze

I think Russia is all but guaranteed the gold. Second and third are not as cut and dried, with each of the countries having strengths and weaknesses, and inconsistent skaters (and there always seems to be some really unexpected results — who would have predicted how terrible the men's SP competition was in 2018 for example?) I think the U.S. is probably favoured for silver, but I think Japan could also possibly challenge. I also think Japan, Canada and Italy are in it for the bronze, though I would probably favour Japan here (or it could be the U.S.)

 

[Lamente Ariane]

I think Russia is all but guaranteed the gold. Second and third are not as cut and dried, with each of the countries having strengths and weaknesses, and inconsistent skaters (and there always seems to be some really unexpected results — who would have predicted how terrible the men's SP competition was in 2018 for example?) I think the U.S. is probably favoured for silver, but I think Japan could also possibly challenge. I also think Japan, Canada and Italy are in it for the bronze, though I would probably favour Japan here (or it could be the U.S.)

I agree Russia is strongly favored for the gold, though under the right circumstances the USA could (narrowly) get it. And I also think Japan could get silver or bronze depending on the US's performance as well as their own. However I'd actually say Georgia has better odds than Italy or Canada of sneaking in for that bronze, though it would obviously require stellar performances in all four disciplines since they're extremely unlikely to win any of the events. Italy's strongest event is Dance this time around, but Guignard/Fabbri aren't strong enough for it to balance out how low their Pair and Woman are likely to place relative to the other contenders, especially since it's an absolute crapshoot whether their man skates a clean SP (Daniel's been more reliable this season than Matteo on that front at least)

In some ways Canada's more well rounded than Italy at the moment, but again their probable best finishers (Gilles/Poirier, Keegan Messing) are unlikely to place higher than third in the RD and SP respectively and there's a real danger of being fifth or lower in pretty much every event but Dance. Advancing to the LP is frankly a more realistic goal at this point than bronze.

And since they haven't been mentioned much yet, I do think China has an outside shot at advancing to the LP (and basically no chance at bronze). If they place top two in Pairs and their Man does well, it will help that Wang/Liu are likely to place ahead of either Japanese Dance team. That said there is absolutely no way Sui/Han skate both team event programs, nor should they.

 

[Kittosuni]

Russia;
Dance = S/K, D/S
Ladies = Valieva
Men = Koylada
Pair= T/M, M/G

May change depending on RusNat results.

I can't tell if this is some type of mockery to D/S by including them but I'm pretty sure even their most hard core fans doesn't think they will make the team event. I get that they have some political clout behind them but Rusfed ain't that delusional. Heck I can even see Eteri not wanting D/S there since B/S is still a better option in securing the gold.

If they are going to the olympics which is very likely especially with the absence and stagnation of Z/G, they are going as the 3rd pair.

Also no way Mishin Camp will let Kolyada skate both segments especially with the individual SP event happening the next day after the FS. This is more reason for Mishin to campaign for Semenenko to Skate the team FS and have two skaters from his camp participating in the team event.

This is my ideal team

Dance= SK
Ladies= Valieva
Men= Kolyada, Semenko
Pair= T/M, M/G

But I would think that Zhulin will not want S/K to skate both segment because of their injuries and want to preserve them for the individual event. Their chance of individually medaling is so high so this will be put into consideration.

Considering injuries, and even political clout this is the most realistic team

Dance= S/K, S/B
Ladies=Valieva
Men=Kolyada, Semenko
Pair= Russian Nat Winner

Moskovina will definitely fight for one of her pairs but the truth is it doesn't matter which pair they send, they will most likely pick up the same points anyway.

Anyway, Is Stepanova/Bukin even cleared to go to the Olympics? If no, D/S is definitely the smartest choice.

 

[dorispulaski]

If I were doing the Russian team, I would probably use S&K for both dance competitions, Valieva for both women's, T&M for the SP in pairs, and the winner of the FS at Nationals for the FS. The trick is to get the best result from the men, which is a puzzle. I would want to see the national results before picking.