Consider Nathan Chen 's SP's in the last Olympics team event. While I think Russia will win this Olympics' team event, nothing is quite certain on the ice, when the score for each segment comes down to the performance of a single skater.
The same Ilia Malinin who finished third at U.S. Nationals in the SP with a score of 103.46 finished 13th with a score of 67.58 in the SP at CS Cup of Austria and failed to get his Senior TES for Worlds. He fell once and had other errors. It happens. Even very good skaters have a disastrous day now and then, particularly in the men and pairs.
Result Details
Pl. Name Nation TSS
= TES
+ PCS
+ SS TR PE CO IN Deduction
- StN.
1 Lucas Tsuyoshi HONDA
JPN 83.95 46.15 37.80 7.60 7.35 7.60 7.60 7.65 0.00 #15
2 Mihhail SELEVKO
EST 82.61 45.86 36.75 7.35 7.10 7.50 7.35 7.45 0.00 #19
3 Maurizio ZANDRON
AUT 79.06 43.26 35.80 7.00 7.00 7.10 7.30 7.40 0.00 #28
4 Nikita STAROSTIN
GER 75.78 42.58 33.20 6.60 6.40 6.80 6.65 6.75 0.00 #1
5 Arlet LEVANDI
EST 75.10 38.60 36.50 7.20 7.05 7.40 7.35 7.50 0.00 #5
6 Beres CLEMENTS
CAN 71.45 38.95 32.50 6.55 6.40 6.50 6.55 6.50 0.00 #14
7 Nicola TODESCHINI
SUI 71.09 39.09 32.00 6.55 6.10 6.50 6.35 6.50 0.00 #13
8 Luc MAIERHOFER
AUT 70.60 37.35 33.25 6.70 6.40 6.55 6.75 6.85 0.00 #25
9 Sena MIYAKE
JPN 70.57 36.17 34.40 7.25 6.65 6.75 6.75 7.00 0.00 #2
10 Landry LE MAY
FRA 70.53 36.88 33.65 6.80 6.45 6.80 6.80 6.80 0.00 #20
11 Jari KESSLER
CRO 69.54 34.24 35.30 7.00 6.80 7.10 7.20 7.20 0.00 #23
12 Nika EGADZE
GEO 68.02 35.47 32.55 6.70 6.25 6.50 6.55 6.55 0.00 #4
13 Ilia MALININ
USA 67.58 33.78 34.80 7.10 6.75 6.90 7.05 7.00 1.00 #18
If that were the Olympic team event, the US would have been in last place in the SP. If Ilia skated as he did at U.S. Nationals, he surely would have scored better than 83.95 and would have been in first place.
Stuff happens. Ice is slippery. Skaters fall. Alexei Krasnozhon, in first place after the SP at 2018 Junior Worlds, fell and broke his leg and had to withdraw, so of course he finished last in the free skate.
That does not happen exclusively to American skaters. At 2005 Skate America, Totmianina & Marinin had a disastrous lift failure. She was knocked out, and the team could not continue. Later in the season, T&M won the 2006 Olympics.
Even dance excellence is not a guarantee. At the 2006 Olympics, Dubrueil & Lauzon had a lift failure in the FD and had to withdraw.
And then there are costume failures, breaking skates, catching COVID, food poisoning from last night's sushi, and even pieces of bird's nests falling on the ice.
One charm of skating competitions is that nothing is absolutely certain.
That said, the race is not always to the swift, but that is how the smart money is betting.
I do not expect the U.S. to win the team event, but It is not impossible.
And I would not rule out Japan winning either.