Hanyu's quad lutz prospects

beki · Oct 2, 2017

We'll have to wait and see, but to me that looked like a popped quad attempt at ACI. From what I understand of Yuzu's personality, I would be shocked to see a triple there. I'd expect him to stubbornly continue attempting the 4Lz, whether or not he pops or falls, until he succeeds.

rabbit1234 · Oct 2, 2017

beki said:
We'll have to wait and see, but to me that looked like a popped quad attempt at ACI. From what I understand of Yuzu's personality, I would be shocked to see a triple there. I'd expect him to stubbornly continue attempting the 4Lz, whether or not he pops or falls, until he succeeds.

He explained that he tried to jump triple lutz. In fact, he was failing to jump triplelutz even in practice. He never tried quaredlutz .

4everchan · Oct 2, 2017

chillgil said:
based on his own words i highly doubt yuzu would start the program with anything less than a quad. i remember reading it in an interview, though where i will never remember lol but it was recent, that he admitted he really feels 'on' when the first jump is a quad and especially when he lands it. also if you look at the program as is he basically skates across the rink setting up for the first jump so i really highly highly doubt he'd put a triple there. if the 4lz ends up not being reliable for him i think he'd just go back to the layout he first announced i believe it was 4lo, 4s, 3f, 4s3t, 4t1lo3s, 3a, 3lz if im wrong please correct me?

fair enough

I don't follow Yuzu as much as you guys

well you missed a 3a combo but i understand what you mean...

so if he goes for 4 quads, the only way to gain back some BV would be IMHO to backload a bit more, and that's why I thought that the 3lutz at front was not only achieving the duty of place holder but also as a way to get the second half of the program tested and run, as it is worth more points that way...

oh well... we will see soon enough what he wants to do

Yatagarasu · Oct 2, 2017

4everchan said:
yeah... but until we see it happening in competition, when he is healthier and perhaps steadier with it, we will see a 3ltz and that also gives a BV advantage by putting in first compared to last in the program. That's all we are discussing...

No, you're not going to see a 3Lz. You'll be seeing a 4Lz from CoR onward.

Such is life, what can you do :console:

MaiKatze · Oct 2, 2017

beki said:
We'll have to wait and see, but to me that looked like a popped quad attempt at ACI. From what I understand of Yuzu's personality, I would be shocked to see a triple there. I'd expect him to stubbornly continue attempting the 4Lz, whether or not he pops or falls, until he succeeds.

Is this really the season to try it, though? Shoma's problem jump is also the Lutz. There was no Lutz in his FS at Lombardia, not even the triple and he skated a cleanish program.

The argument earlier was that Yuzuru needed almost the entire season to stabilize his programs with the newly added Loop. If the Lutz is going to give him similar problems it would be unwise to add it. Then - still no one knows what his long term plan is. If he retires after 2018's Worlds, I can see him trying to bring it all, especially the Lutz. That's probably why there are rumours about a Quad Axel this season.

4everchan · Oct 2, 2017

Yatagarasu said:
No, you're not going to see a 3Lz. You'll be seeing a 4Lz from CoR onward.

Such is life, what can you do.

well i am thrilled to see as many 4lutzes as possible. bring them on.

you guys need to breathe and chill.. i am explaining the advantages of using a place holder triple... some other skaters have done so with success... why not yuzuru? oh.. okay.. because you guys know that for sure he will be doing the 4lutz in a couple weeks in russia... well your crystal ball is much better than mine.

rabbit1234 · Oct 2, 2017

He explained that he tried to jump triplelutz, tripleloop safely because he had a feeling of strangeness in the knee. Tripleloop will definitely be replaced by quadloop.
Probably the beginning will be quadlutz. Because SHOMA and Nathan raised BV, he thought that he had to go about it.
He said that he did not plan to do quadlutz in August, but his team says he is thinking to implement quadlutz.

However, it makes it very difficult for him to align SP and FP to clean.

Li'Kitsu · Oct 2, 2017

MaiKatze said:
Is this really the season to try it, though? Shoma's problem jump is also the Lutz. There was no Lutz in his FS at Lombardia, not even the triple and he skated a cleanish program.

The argument earlier was that Yuzuru needed almost the entire season to stabilize his programs with the newly added Loop. If the Lutz is going to give him similar problems it would be unwise to add it. Then - still no one knows what his long term plan is. If he retires after 2018's Worlds, I can see him trying to bring it all, especially the Lutz. That's probably why there are rumours about a Quad Axel this season.

Please what? Where are some people getting there info from...? :slink:

And I have this feeling Yuzu will not do you the favor to retire after 2018 WC. Especially not with 2019 WC in Japan

Yatagarasu · Oct 2, 2017

Wishful thinking is one of my favorite things :laugh:

____

beki said:
We'll have to wait and see, but to me that looked like a popped quad attempt at ACI. From what I understand of Yuzu's personality, I would be shocked to see a triple there. I'd expect him to stubbornly continue attempting the 4Lz, whether or not he pops or falls, until he succeeds.

He specifically said it was not a 4Lz. It was not a 4Lz. It was a 3Lz. And the precise problem was that it was a triple and not a quad.

And we should wait and see if the 4Lz ends up giving him problems or not in the first place.

4everchan · Oct 2, 2017

Yatagarasu said:
Wishful thinking is one of my favorite things

Noted.

CanadianSkaterGuy · Oct 2, 2017

beki said:
I'd expect him to stubbornly continue attempting the 4Lz, whether or not he pops or falls, until he succeeds.

Well, it worked for the salchow!

He's obviously capable of doing a 4Z, but I don't expect him to get it as easily as Jin or Chen. His triple lutz, IMO, is historically one of his weaker elements compared to his other jumps, and he himself says he prefers edge jumps.

Yatagarasu · Oct 2, 2017

4everchan said:
well your crystal ball is much better than mine.

Or maybe he said so but what does Yuzuru Hanyu know about his own skating, right? :confused2:

4everchan · Oct 2, 2017

Yatagarasu said:
Or maybe he said so but what does Yuzuru Hanyu know about his own skating, right? :confused2:

What an athlete shares with his fans and what happens on the ice are two different things. He is perhaps fully healed right now or confident that he will be in time.

But he was certainly not planning to get injured just prior to Autumn Classic either... so life is full of mysteries and surprises... and I keep open minded about what can happen...

We all have our ways... and I am happy to note that you are very wishful thinking... please understand that some of us may have other ways to deal with the future, and that doesn't mean that we are not supportive or positive.

Yatagarasu · Oct 2, 2017

4everchan said:
We all have our ways... and I am happy to note that you are very wishful thinking... please understand that some of us may have other ways to deal with the future, and that doesn't mean that we are not supportive or positive.

Yes, I find all the wishful thinking here amusing, so I am exceedingly grateful for all the provisions I keep getting. It's phenomenal.

Oh and absolutely 4everchan. Absolutely. Everyone knows that after all. You are so supportive of Yuzuru Hanyu that I think I would have to check outside to see if it were Armageddon if you suddenly stopped supporting him. Luckily, it's not so good, good.

rabbit1234 · Oct 3, 2017

yude said:
Sounds like your wish Thank you for your all data but in short, you want to say that you think Shoma and Nathan are better skaters than Yuzuru and you root for him(them) and wish for him(them) medals, and there is nothing wrong with it since everyone has their opinions and favorite skaters.

About Yuzuru's layout of LP, I'm trying not to forget about his right knee. I don't think he will do two triple jumps at the beginning anymore because he didn't like it, but there is still possibility of doing 4Lo as first jump IMO. Whatever he and his team chooses, I root for him because he is my favorite skater and the best skater to me

He has showcased in Japanese ice show, exhibitions, etc. before taking a difficult jump such as quadloop in the competition．
However, he have never tried quadlutz even at an ice show held in June. He and Plushenko let shoma challenge quadlutz, while Hanyu himself only tried quadloop and quadtoe.

Hanyu invited Japanese media to Toronto this August and held a public practice for two days.
However, despite the great expectation of the Japanese media, he never tried quadlutz.

In autumn classic he described the quadlutz in Japanese as "dekinakuwanai". The Japanese nuance is not a word to use when it can jump with a high probability.
he actually challenged quadlutz at the practice in the practice of ISU World Team Trophy 2017., but he challenged eight times and never succeeded (GOE plus).

Thinking from the low probability of his triplelutz, I do not think that his quadlutz will succeed with a high probability.

yude · Oct 3, 2017

rabbit1234 said:
He has showcased in Japanese ice show, exhibitions, etc. before taking a difficult jump such as quadloop in the competition．
However, he have never tried quadlutz even at an ice show held in June. He and Plushenko let shoma challenge quadlutz, while Hanyu himself only tried quadloop and quadtoe.

Hanyu invited Japanese media to Toronto this August and held a public practice for two days.
However, despite the great expectation of the Japanese media, he never tried quadlutz.

In autumn classic he described the quadlutz in Japanese as "dekinakuwanai". The Japanese nuance is not a word to use when it can jump with a high probability.
he actually challenged quadlutz at the practice in the practice of ISU World Team Trophy 2017., but he challenged eight times and never succeeded (GOE plus).

Thinking from the low probability of his triplelutz, I do not think that his quadlutz will succeed with a high probability.

Thank you for your information that I all know, but I caught why you don't think Yuzuru will succeed in 4Lz with a high probability. Let's wait and see how he will do it (if he includes it in the program).

Yatagarasu · Oct 3, 2017

rabbit1234 said:
He has showcased in Japanese ice show, exhibitions, etc. before taking a difficult jump such as quadloop in the competition．
However, he have never tried quadlutz even at an ice show held in June.

Incorrect.
He did try it at FaOI 2017 practices, there is just no video of it. But a certain number of lucky fans were present and they all reported about it. Plushenko also said he saw it.

Also, there's such a thing as strategy. One does not have to announce to all and sundry what they're intending to do. In fact, from Yuzuru's own statements post that WTT, it was quite clear that the 4Lz was something he intended to keep to himself for as long as possible.

Thinking from the low probability of his triplelutz, I do not think that his quadlutz will succeed with a high probability.

Dreams are free. Waking up might be painful though.

rabbit1234 · Oct 3, 2017

Yatagarasu said:
Incorrect.
He did try it at FaOI 2017 practices, there is just no video of it. But a certain number of lucky fans were present and they all reported about it. Plushenko also said he saw it.

Also, there's such a thing as strategy. One does not have to announce to all and sundry what they're intending to do. In fact, from Yuzuru's own statements post that WTT, it was quite clear that the 4Lz was something he intended to keep to himself for as long as possible.

Dreams are free. Waking up might be painful though.

Boyan, Nathan etc, the competitor who jumps quadlutz with high probability, the probability of triplelutz is also high. In fact, they have triplelutz in the program with quadlutz

Li'Kitsu · Oct 3, 2017

rabbit1234 said:
Boyan, Nathan etc, the competitor who jumps quadlutz with high probability, the probability of triplelutz is also high. In fact, they have triplelutz in the program with quadlutz

Eh, if you just look at the 3Lz success rates from skatedb....
Boyang: 66,7%
Yuzuru: 72,2%
Shoma: 42,5%
Nathan: 88,6%

I doubt this will change your opinion, but Yuzu's 3Lz isn't quite that bad. Then again, the success rate with the triple doesn't neccesarily translate into that with the quad in the first place. We'll see.

rabbit1234 · Oct 3, 2017

Li'Kitsu said:
Eh, if you just look at the 3Lz success rates from skatedb....
Boyang: 66,7%
Yuzuru: 72,2%
Shoma: 42,5%
Nathan: 88,6%

I doubt this will change your opinion, but Yuzu's 3Lz isn't quite that bad. Then again, the success rate with the triple doesn't neccesarily translate into that with the quad in the first place. We'll see.

2016-2017

×　 2016 Autumn Classic International
○　ISU GP 2016 Skate Canada International
○　ISU GP NHK Trophy 2016
×　ISU Grand Prix of Figure Skating Final 2016
○ ISU World Championships 2017　

2017-2018
×　2017 Autumn Classic International

Hanyu's quad lutz prospects

beki

rabbit1234

4everchan

Yatagarasu

MaiKatze

4everchan

rabbit1234

Li'Kitsu

Yatagarasu

4everchan

CanadianSkaterGuy

Yatagarasu

4everchan

Yatagarasu

rabbit1234

yude

Yatagarasu

rabbit1234

Li'Kitsu

rabbit1234

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