2010 Olympic U.S. figure skating team selection procedures

[Tinymavy15]

this is interesting. The japanese have beeen using this system. The US offically has not been choosing the winner of nats in the past, like when they send Kwan to the olympics and choose kimmie to the world team last year dispite placeing below Hacker.

I think that it is better not to go with the winner of nats right away, because anybody could have the skate of their life that night and win nats, while the deserving skater has injury...problems etc. This would also but more focus on the GP series and who makes the final. On the other hand, it could make it harder for young skaters with no proir internationl experice. Like if Mirai won 2009 Nationals, would she be passed over for Kimmie, because kimmie is a world champions and Mirai has not medaled at a senior international event.

 

[Sylvia]

On the other hand, it could make it harder for young skaters with no proir internationl experice. Like if Mirai won 2009 Nationals, would she be passed over for Kimmie, because kimmie is a world champions and Mirai has not medaled at a senior international event.

IF Nagasu repeats as 2009 U.S. national champ, then she is guaranteed a 2009 Worlds berth under the current rules.

I've heard that one (main?) reason that the 2010 U.S. national champions in each of the 4 disciplines will not be automatically named to the 2010 Olympic team is because that would make Nationals an "Olympic qualifying event" and, legally, the U.S. Olympic Committee (USOC) could claim control over the 2010 U.S. Nationals event, as well as its TV rights/fees, from USFS.

 

[gold12345]

they sent Marcy and Aaron to Torino because they placed second... Katie and Garrett had international experience but the USFSA didn't put them on the team instead... one of the few times I was disappointed in skaters because they didn't take the decision very well IMHO.

Katie and Garrett may have had intl experience, but in three trips to Worlds, they never finished higher than 12th and never medaled internationally in anything except maybe once . So I can't see how the USFSA could have justified putting them on the team over Marcy and Aaron, who earned their spot at Nationals. Now if Katie and Garrett had a world medal or some GP medals under their belts, or were clearly the U.S.'s best at the time, that would have been a different story. Then you could make the case that perhaps they just had a rough skate at Nationals, and deserved to go to the Olympics anyway over a team that had the 'skate of their lives'.

I think something really bizarre would have to happen for the National Champ to not make the team. If the Natl Champ was so unworthy of going to the Olympics, they wouldn't be getting the PCS to win Natls in the first place. I could see a 2nd or 3rd place finisher getting replaced, but not the winner.

I'm with Sylvia that this is probably mainly a USOC thing, and not because they are actually concerned that the Natl Champ may be a "one hit wonder" who isn't worthy of the Olympics.

 

[KayMil01]

What place did Hinzman/Parchem get at the Olympics? sucky thing is though, that they retired after 2006 and weren't seen again.

I thought Katie Orsher had gotten a new partner?

 

[demarinis5]

What place did Hinzman/Parchem get at the Olympics? sucky thing is though, that they retired after 2006 and weren't seen again.

They placed 13th at the Olympics games and 11th at 2006 Worlds.

 

[Tonichelle]

I wasn't saying that Katie and Garrett deserved to go over Marcy and Aaron, but there was discussion that it was dangerous to send an inexperienced team over one that'd been to worlds...

Based on that nationals, though, it was definitely right to put Marcy and Aaron on the team.

 

[Mathman]

I've heard that one (main?) reason that the 2010 U.S. national champions in each of the 4 disciplines will not be automatically named to the 2010 Olympic team is because that would make Nationals an "Olympic qualifying event" and, legally, the U.S. Olympic Committee (USOC) could claim control over the 2010 U.S. Nationals event, as well as its TV rights/fees, from USFS.

THANK YOU! That is the first explanation I have heard that makes sense.

I just couldn't figure out why USFS would all of a sudden jump up and change the rules that they have operated under for 50 years, or have different rules for the Olympics than they have for Worlds. The U.S. champion goes, the other team members are selected by the USFSA Interrnational Committee.

If this is truly the reason, then USFS will do as they have always done, too bad for the USOC if they wanted to horn in on the act.

I also noticed that they changed the wording in the by-laws from something like, the International Committee will choose who gets sent to the Olympics" to something like, "the International Committee will nominate skaters to the USOC for appointment to the Olympic team."

 

[Joesitz (RIP)]

IF Nagasu repeats as 2009 U.S. national champ, then she is guaranteed a 2009 Worlds berth under the current rules.

I've heard that one (main?) reason that the 2010 U.S. national champions in each of the 4 disciplines will not be automatically named to the 2010 Olympic team is because that would make Nationals an "Olympic qualifying event" and, legally, the U.S. Olympic Committee (USOC) could claim control over the 2010 U.S. Nationals event, as well as its TV rights/fees, from USFS.

Wow, the OIC to take control over the 2010 US Nats! That's super interesting but so what if they did?

The USFS would still select the skaters, would it not? That's what I thought the thread was all about and not my faux pas in mentioning podium skaters to go to LA, so I am glad you brought it back, Sylvia.

I repeat it here for the perusal of others who may have other ideas of how the USFS will select:

I think the results in Cleveland will tell us how the USFS really feels about who to send to LA.

When one thinks about it, particularly the Ladies; where no one is a Lock on the podium, and some whippersnapper from the Sectionals like Joelle Forte gets a silver medal, will they not let her go to LA? I think they will not. The US has very talented Ladies-in-Waiting, What a prediction question!! unanswerable, imo.

Two locks for the Men. Will one cave in? and if so who will land on the podium? And then the Big Question. Will the USFS let him go. Presumiing Abbott is already a shoe-in. Where do Carriere, Rippon and Bradley stand? Picking 3 for LA is not easy.

I can't imagine McL/ Bru not going.

But Skate Dance? Bel/Ago, Sam/Bates. Davis/White , Nav/Bom and now The Hubbells! Will they choose 3 teams regadless of the results? I don't think they dare.

just food for thought with regard to selection procedures.

Predictions belong in the Events thread.

 

[Mathman]

Wow, the OIC to take control over the 2010 US Nats! That's super interesting but so what if they did?

The USFS would still select the skaters, would it not? That's what I thought the thread was all about...

To me, the thread was about the change in the Olympic selection prodecure. (Nothing to do with Cleveland or L.A. at all, although that is also interesting as a separate topic.)

Sylvia's first post gives the details about the fact that starting in 2010 the Olympic selection procedure will be different from what it has always been for decades. The relation between U.S. Nationals and Worlds is unchanged.

Sylvia's most recent post sheds light on "why the change?"

 

[Tonichelle]

losing all of that $$ from sponsers of nationals (NBC and commercials) would really be a huge loss for the USFSA... I completely understand them wanting protect that aspect.

 

[Mathman]

^ It's just funny that after all these years, all of a sudden now the USFSA has to protect itself from the USOC?

 

[Sylvia]

I also noticed that they changed the wording in the by-laws from something like, the International Committee will choose who gets sent to the Olympics" to something like, "the International Committee will nominate skaters to the USOC for appointment to the Olympic team."

No, that part hasn't changed. I dug up the link to the 15-page PDF document titled "U.S. Figure Skating Athlete Selection Procedures 2006 Olympic Winter Games May 11, 2005" that's still archived on the USFS site at: http://www.usfigureskating.org/content/athleteselection.pdf
Relevant excerpt from page 2:
"All athletes selected by U.S. Figure Skating are to be considered nominees to the 2006 U.S. Olympic Team until final approval is given by the USOC."

^ It's just funny that after all these years, all of a sudden now the USFSA has to protect itself from the USOC?

Guess they (or their lawyers) finally wised up! (i.e., decided to close any legal loopholes)

 

[Joesitz (RIP)]

To me, the thread was about the change in the Olympic selection prodecure. (Nothing to do with Cleveland or L.A. at all, although that is also interesting as a separate topic.)

Sylvia's first post gives the details about the fact that starting in 2010 the Olympic selection procedure will be different from what it has always been for decades. The relation between U.S. Nationals and Worlds is unchanged.

Sylvia's most recent post sheds light on "why the change?"

Sorry about that. I thought Cleveland and LA would have a bearing on this. I guess not.

 

[Tonichelle]

^ It's just funny that after all these years, all of a sudden now the USFSA has to protect itself from the USOC?

maybe the USOC was worried about how nationals would go in the new format and tried to take the decision out of the hands of the USFSA so they did a scramble?

 

[bethissoawesome]

It almost sounds like the Committee is already banking on the US Ladies (in particular) not being able to clinch 3 spots for the Olympics. The notice comes off a bit jittery and nervous to me. It seems like they are looking too much at the fact that our National Champ didn't even come close to making it into the GPF. It also seems like it will eliminate a bit of the competitiveness going into Nationals beforehand which might make it a bit boring hehe. But I can't imagine how hurt a skater would be if they placed first at nationals only to wind up not being chosen by the selection committee because they had a bad skate during the Grand Prix and didn't make Finals.

I kind of disagree with their reasoning. How many recent Olympics have we seen someone skate away with Gold simply because they had the skate of their life on that night? Mirai wouldn't have won the National Championships with any of her skates this year, but she did it then. Japan selected Miki Ando to go to the Olympics in 2006 based on her past performances rather than her tank at Japanese Nationals, and she faired just as poorly at the Olympics. When it comes down to it, it really doesn't matter who they send out there... for a US lady to podium (looking at how they are fairing now, I don't know what could happen between now in the Olympics), it would really take the skate of a lifetime... and that could come from someone who has had steady showings or someone who has been all over the standings. There is no guarantee that just because someone has seemed to do consistently well that they might faulter at the Olys just like any other competition. No ice is the same.

 

[Mathman]

The notice comes off a bit jittery and nervous to me.

I totally agree.

Mirai wouldn't have won the National Championships with any of her skates this year, but she did it then.

 

[merrybari]

But I can't imagine how hurt a skater would be if they placed first at nationals only to wind up not being chosen by the selection committee because they had a bad skate during the Grand Prix and didn't make Finals.

Nor can I imagine the committee is so naive as to skip over a National Champ for that reason. Despite this document, seems they should be savvy enough about the sport to know that anyone can have a bad skate on any given day. The same way they should know that the opposite is just as true - on any given day anyone can have a great skate - even the skate of their life.

 

[gocaroline]

It's a sports, anyone can have a great or bad skate on a particular night, it's what makes the sports exciting IMO. I strongly believe USFS should make their decision based on the national results. Otherwise what's the point? Just choose the winner based on past results.

 

[bethissoawesome]

The other thing that is striking my attention is that it seems this is giving the selection committee a bye of their own, since this season they have watched very talented ladies on the Junior circuit faulter as they moved up to Seniors on the International level (another reason why placement in Junior World and GPF is probably last on the list even though a skater could potentially score higher at Junior Worlds than another skater at Worlds).

It's understandable to want skaters that they believe will do well because they are a bit more seasoned; but they give Kimmie a free pass to Worlds, and she hasn't come sky-rocketing back to the podium. It's just impossible to predict how the ice will be a certain day, how a skater will feel. But it really just takes the whole competitive spirit out of Nationals.




Heck, if they are going to make it so standardized, why don't they just come up with a formula? Maybe... take a weighted average of the skater's total scores in the competitions mentioned in level of importance. (Multiply score by 6 for most important criterion (National Championships), 5 for second most important (GPF), etc. and down to 1 (JGPF) as the list progresses, divided by # of eligible competitions.... three for junior skaters, four for senior).



Out of curiosity, I wonder which ladies would have qualified for the Olympics if it was in 2008 taking the results of 2007/2008 Season into consideration (disregarding age).

Rachael Flatt: 172.19*2 (WJ) 188.73*6 (NATS) 159.66*1 (JGPF) /3
Caroline Zhang: 171.84*2 (WJ) 176.48*5 (GPF) 173.16*6 (NATS) /3
Mirai Nagasu: 162.89*2 (WJ) 190.41*6 (NATS) 162.09*1 (JGPF) /3
Kimmie Meissner: 154.22*5 (GPF) 157.56*6 (NATS) 149.74*4 (W) 0 (4CC) /4
Bebe Liang: 164.87*6 (NATS) 144.25*3 (4CC) 145.29*4 (W) 0 (GP) /4
Katrina Hackner: 158.28*6 (NATS) 153.86*3 (4CC) 0 (GPF) 0 (W) /4
Ashley Wagner: 188.56*6 (NATS) 152.46*3 (4CC) 137.40*4 (W) 0 (GPF) /4

Rachael Flatt: 545.47
Caroline Zhang: 755.01
Mirai Nagasu: 543.44
Kimmie Meisnner: 578.86
Bebe Liang: 500.78
Katrina Hackner: 352.81
Ashley Wagner: 534.585

So the Olympic Team would be: Carpline Zhang, Kimmie Meissner, Rachael Flatt, Mirai Nagasu (first alternate)

(If Junior Competitors also had a 4 divisor instead of 3 the World Team would have been Kimmie, Caroline, Ashley, Bebe (first alternate) )

What do you guys think, if the Olympics were in 2008 and the resulting team for the US Ladies was Meissner, Zhang, Flatt... do you think that would have been the proper team to pick? How do you think they would have faired compared to the team that was sent (Meissner, Liang, Wagner) or the team that would have been sent if it was just the 1st - 3rd place finishers at Nats (Nagasu, Flatt, Wagner)? Disregarding age.

 

[Nigel]

The other thing that is striking my attention is that it seems this is giving the selection committee a bye of their own, since this season they have watched very talented ladies on the Junior circuit faulter as they moved up to Seniors on the International level (another reason why placement in Junior World and GPF is probably last on the list even though a skater could potentially score higher at Junior Worlds than another skater at Worlds).

It's understandable to want skaters that they believe will do well because they are a bit more seasoned; but they give Kimmie a free pass to Worlds, and she hasn't come sky-rocketing back to the podium. It's just impossible to predict how the ice will be a certain day, how a skater will feel. But it really just takes the whole competitive spirit out of Nationals.




Heck, if they are going to make it so standardized, why don't they just come up with a formula? Maybe... take a weighted average of the skater's total scores in the competitions mentioned in level of importance. (Multiply score by 6 for most important criterion (National Championships), 5 for second most important (GPF), etc. and down to 1 (JGPF) as the list progresses, divided by # of eligible competitions.... three for junior skaters, four for senior).



Out of curiosity, I wonder which ladies would have qualified for the Olympics if it was in 2008 taking the results of 2007/2008 Season into consideration (disregarding age).

Rachael Flatt: 172.19*2 (WJ) 188.73*6 (NATS) 159.66*1 (JGPF) /3
Caroline Zhang: 171.84*2 (WJ) 176.48*5 (GPF) 173.16*6 (NATS) /3
Mirai Nagasu: 162.89*2 (WJ) 190.41*6 (NATS) 162.09*1 (JGPF) /3
Kimmie Meissner: 154.22*5 (GPF) 157.56*6 (NATS) 149.74*4 (W) 0 (4CC) /4
Bebe Liang: 164.87*6 (NATS) 144.25*3 (4CC) 145.29*4 (W) 0 (GP) /4
Katrina Hackner: 158.28*6 (NATS) 153.86*3 (4CC) 0 (GPF) 0 (W) /4
Ashley Wagner: 188.56*6 (NATS) 152.46*3 (4CC) 137.40*4 (W) 0 (GPF) /4

Rachael Flatt: 545.47
Caroline Zhang: 755.01
Mirai Nagasu: 543.44
Kimmie Meisnner: 578.86
Bebe Liang: 500.78
Katrina Hackner: 352.81
Ashley Wagner: 534.585

So the Olympic Team would be: Carpline Zhang, Kimmie Meissner, Rachael Flatt, Mirai Nagasu (first alternate)

(If Junior Competitors also had a 4 divisor instead of 3 the World Team would have been Kimmie, Caroline, Ashley, Bebe (first alternate) )

What do you guys think, if the Olympics were in 2008 and the resulting team for the US Ladies was Meissner, Zhang, Flatt... do you think that would have been the proper team to pick? How do you think they would have faired compared to the team that was sent (Meissner, Liang, Wagner) or the team that would have been sent if it was just the 1st - 3rd place finishers at Nats (Nagasu, Flatt, Wagner)? Disregarding age.

This is comparing apples and oranges...Scores just are not transparent competition to competition, much less across Senior or Junior events.