2014 Olympics Ladies Short Program

[Skater Boy]

Some notes. Kostener does have great skills and I think she did a great job with this short program - really to up the content and all. I know there are a lot of fans but I kind of wish the law averages would work here so I am not exactly pulling for her as she has been gifted som many times. Poor Japan the did not skate well; the Americans did however I predict one of them will probably plummet. Not to be mean but the odds are...Polina did a great job but she has had no pressure at all and avoided all the crticism and drama of the Mirai issue. All the criticisms of the juniorishness of Lipnskaiaya needs to be given to Polina as well who is not as refined and does notw ork it as much as Julia. I do think some skaters coudl have been a bit higher = Yuna, the Canadian champion for example but the placements are fair. USA is in good position for a medal with Gold and Wagner. This assumes Kostner or Sotnikova falls apart and Yulia doesn't skate lights out. There are some skaters out of the top ten Murakami, Asada and Osmond who could move up a fair amount and you have some vulnerable skaters - Marchesi, the German lady, Mete and Edmunds for example so there could still be some movement. THis is like 2006 three ladies essentially tied for gold. I think so many of us are in shock how well Polina did and how poorly the Japanese ladies and in particular Mao. If it weren't for her pds Mao might not have made it through. I was surprised Jenna McCorkell didn't make it through. I am not a big fan of hers but I thought with her experience and her less th an compelling skates she was due for a decent one She must be quite upset. It will be an exciting show down and one would think it is beween the top three and Gold but Ice is slippery I suppose.

 

[hippomoomin]

I mean I like her being more consistent now, even though her jumps are smaller, if you cannot have both the size of jump and consistency…

Smaller body=less margin of error. THat's why I admire Caro, being so tall.

what's this about?

 

[Ziggy]

They don't throw out the highest and lowest scores (for PCS at least). I believe they randomly take scores, which may or may not include the highest and lowest. Getting rid of the highest and lowest would make sense though - tons of other judged sports do that.

Yes, they do discard the highest and lowest scores.

But no, when you look at the maths behind it, it doesn't make sense. Just using the average score produces more statistically correct results. George Rossano wrote a long piece about it with a lot of calculations and I remember it being well argued. It was a loooong time ago but it might still be up on Skateweb somewhere.

 

[composer]

USA - Boost Adelina b/c they are mad at Yuna and Caro for always beating Ashley and Gracie
CAN - Boost Adelina because she looks like Kaetlyn
ITA - Judge mad at Caro because she gets all the attention from Valentina. Boost Adelina
GER - Boost Adelina because Witt also skated to Carmen
GBR - Boost Adelina because their flag also has red white and blue
JPN - Boost Adelina because they don't want Yuna to win
SWE and SVK - Boost Adelina because they are just happy to be in Russia and on the judging panel
KOR - Boost Adelina because maybe she will marry a Korean after Yuna retires and be the country's #1

The judging controversy makes perfect sense with these obvious explanations.

 

[Layfan]

I mean I like her being more consistent now, even though her jumps are smaller, if you cannot have both the size of jump and consistency…

Smaller body=less margin of error. THat's why I admire Caro, being so tall.

ohhhhhh

 

[Mathman]

They don't throw out the highest and lowest scores (for PCS at least). I believe they randomly take scores, which may or may not include the highest and lowest. Getting rid of the highest and lowest would make sense though - tons of other judged sports do that.

They do throw out the highest and lowest for the GOE on each element separately and for each component score. They do not eliminate any scores randomly any more.

 

[CanadianSkaterGuy]

Yes, they do discard the highest and lowest scores.

But no, when you look at the maths behind it, it doesn't make sense. Just using the average score produces more statistically correct results. George Rossano wrote a long piece about it with a lot of calculations and I remember it being well argued. It was a loooong time ago but it might still be up on Skateweb somewhere.

Thanks for clarifying. But isn't dropping the high and low meant to rule out statistical outliers and reduce the deviation from the mean?

 

[Mathman]

Yes, they do discard the highest and lowest scores.

But no, when you look at the maths behind it, it doesn't make sense. Just using the average score produces more statistically correct results. George Rossano wrote a long piece about it with a lot of calculations and I remember it being well argued. It was a loooong time ago but it might still be up on Skateweb somewhere.

Dr. Rosanno, however, made an error in treating the trimmed mean (9 scores trimmed down to 7) as if it were a sample of size seven, instead of a sample of size nine. This is incorrect. The rwo methods (all nine versus trimmed mean) have the same aount of accuracy except in the case of extreme asymmetry in the distribution of judges' marks.

 

[Mathman]

Thanks for clarifying. But isn't dropping the high and low meant to rule out statistical outliers and reduce the deviation from the mean?

Yes, it's the outliers thing. Like the keystroke error where someone just gave a -3 on a spin, intending +3.

 

[Mrs. P]

Lunch break means catching the Top 3. I thought Adelina did a bang-up job, but did not have the fluidity of either Carolina or Yuna. I would have marked her down a few points in PCS. I say 70-71 would have been more reasonable.

Yuna and Carolina had the best programs of the night ...(Still need to watch the rest, but I'm sure I won't change my mind...)

 

[ks777]

I am not a Yuna nor Carolina fan but I thought Adelina was held up like crazy tonight. I am sorry but she doesn't use her upper body beautifully. Her upper body reminded me of Yoshie Onda, very ugly. Yes her jumps are big but her spins are rather ugly. I am sorry but I would have scored Caroline and Yuna higher than Adelina. As for Mao, I feel bad for her but you know, you can't expect to land the hard jump that you haven't been able to land cleanly through out the season, at the most stressful situation. I knew this was coming after seeing her fall at the team competition.

 

[emma]

I am very sorry for Mao and her many many fans. She is truly a beautiful skater - even with the jump errors, the quality of her skating and line shine through. I admire her; some might call her stubborn for insisting on the axel, and perhaps only she and her closest supports really know if it is sheer stubbornness, but from the distance of admiring fan, I can't help but admire her commitment to it. And, as others have noted, she probably came with the idea that that was the only way she'd wrack up enough points to win, and she does already have an Olympic silver (and many other gold medals)....best of luck to her in the long/free program - I hope she skates with abandon.

I will watch and rewatch Caro's short program over and over. I also love Yuna's program and am just awed by her competition skills too. I happen to love this program and this music, but will say that it is Caro that held my heart in the palm of my hand today.

Congrats to Adelina - brava, brave girl! Sorry for Julia, I know she must feel crushed - but she still has the long and what appears to be an incredibly bright future.

And way to go US ladies - those nerves must have been out of this world; and sure, not squeaky perfect for Gracie or Ashley, but they fought and performed. Way to go Polina - what a senior lady international debut, and at the Olympics no less! Gotta give props to Meite - she seems to get better every time I see her skate. Too bad on what looked like a hand down on the sal (was it?)....

Akiko is another heart breaker of sorts - yet, she stays in the moment and is such a unique and beautiful skater. Total package IMHO, and loved her dress (is this new?), and loved the way she just seems to touch you with her skating and choreo. Fun to watch Elene G skate and look happy about it. surely I'm forgetting someone - but overall, this was, for me, and really enjoyable event.

Thanks Mrs. P for the laughs with the Onion...

 

[quikrush]

So happy for Yuna. Another beautiful program to remember her by. I won't let the bad scoring mar any of these precious last moments.

 

[Trewyn]

Augh Wagner should have just done a 3F+2T... she scored only 4.9 points for her combo when she could have scored at least 7 points for the 3-2. Darn CoP.

Darn CoP indeed 3-2 and she'd have been in 4th place instead of 6th? Frustrating thought. I hope she has the skate of her life in the free!!!!

Other thoughts (not very coherent because I'm bloody exhausted): poor Team Japan, Yuna looked cautious, what's going to happen tomorrow - with two relatively inconsistent skaters in 2-3 this competition isn't over yet!!!

 

[KwanIsALegend]

Starting order for the final group in the FS:

19 RUS Yulia LIPNITSKAYA
20 ITA Carolina KOSTNER
21 RUS Adelina SOTNIKOVA
22 USA Gracie GOLD
23 USA Ashley WAGNER
24 KOR Yuna KIM

What a final group, I don't know i I can handle this.
This will be a true fight to the end!!

 

[KwanIsALegend]

Watching now on NBC.com. Why are there so many empty seats?? Where is everybody?

 

[lupojohn]

Watching now on NBS.com. Why are there so many empty seats?? Where is everybody?

Finland 3, Russia 1. They showed some fans coming in after the game ended. Most probably went home to vent.

 

[CanadianSkaterGuy]

Watching now on NBS.com. Why are there so many empty seats?? Where is everybody?

If you're watching anything before the final flight with the 2 Russians, expect an empty arena. Many probably didn't even show up earlier to see the leader, Kim.

 

[Panini]

*** @ Adelina's 3T-3T lol. How did she get so high

I hope she's not joking about working on 4T...

Off-topic but can anyone explain to me why Miki Ando trained the 4S but not 4T? Looking at the men's competition, it's obvious that 4T is the easier jump.

 

[ks777]

Off-topic but can anyone explain to me why Miki Ando trained the 4S but not 4T? Looking at the men's competition, it's obvious that 4T is the easier jump.

3toe was her least favorite jump.