2015-16 State of U.S. Men's Figure Skating

[Ice Dance]

A few thoughts:

1. A month ago it seemed perfectly logical for Nathan to plan on competing a regular junior season. Eighth place at Nationals put him behind a lot of guys who could easily fill up the U.S.'s senior Grand Prix slots. But Douglas retired & Jeremy decided not to do the GP. Grant Hochstein finished behind Nathan at Nationals & he got a slot in China. (Wish we could send Nathan there because the field's not so hot. He could make a splash).

2. I completely support the idea of wanting Nathan to stay healthy. This comes first. But if they're worried about his health, why have him compete in a jumps-only competition? (3A2T2T, 4T3T, 4T) Doesn't sound like they're worried. Sounds more like sending a message that they aren't.

3. Also, if the injury is an issue, then how will competing a full junior season with 2 JGP events and likely a JGP Final be better than a senior season with one Grand Prix?

4. Yes, Nathan missed a 3A. He also landed it. Plus multiple quads. It's June! If we're going to start turning away guys with that kind of jumping record early in the season, the whole U.S. field might as well skip the Grand Prix.

5. What does he have to gain by skating a full season in juniors? To me, this is the most significant question. He's already well known and respected internationally and nationally. It's the men's event so it's not like everything rides on reputation. If he puts out solid skates as a senior, he'll start to place. I agree that his presentation needs to move on to the next level. But I don't think he does that on the junior circuit. He's a competitor. Let's throw him in with the seniors. I think he rises to the occasion and within a season or two those PCS scores go way up.

 

[andromache]

A few thoughts:

1. A month ago it seemed perfectly logical for Nathan to plan on competing a regular junior season. Eighth place at Nationals put him behind a lot of guys who could easily fill up the U.S.'s senior Grand Prix slots. But Douglas retired & Jeremy decided not to do the GP. Grant Hochstein finished behind Nathan at Nationals & he got a slot in China. (Wish we could send Nathan there because the field's not so hot. He could make a splash).

2. I completely support the idea of wanting Nathan to stay healthy. This comes first. But if they're worried about his health, why have him compete in a jumps-only competition? (3A2T2T, 4T3T, 4T) Doesn't sound like they're worried. Sounds more like sending a message that they aren't.

3. Also, if the injury is an issue, then how will competing a full junior season with 2 JGP events and likely a JGFP final be better than a senior season with one Grand Prix?

4. Yes, Nathan missed a 3A. He also landed it. Plus multiple quads. It's June! If we're going to start turning away guys with that kind of jumping record early in the season, the whole U.S. field might as well skip the Grand Prix.

5. What does he have to gain by skating a full season in juniors? To me, this is the most significant question. He's already well known and respected internationally and nationally. It's the men's event so it's not like everything rides on reputation. If he puts out solid skates as a senior, he'll start to place. I agree that his presentation needs to move on to the next level. But I don't think he does that on the junior circuit. He's a competitor. Let's throw him in with the seniors. I think he rises to the occasion and within a season or two those PCS scores go way up.

I agree with all of this!

I think USFSA might have a tendency to want to hold some of its skaters back a little too long, as evidenced by the Kori Ade interview where she said that the federation wanted Jason to stay a junior for the Olympic season. I don't think Nathan Chen should be held back. The more SENIOR international experience he gets in the years before 2018, the better of a potential contender he will be. I think senior GP experience might be more important than another trip to Junior Worlds--plus he'll be taken more seriously as a contender for Senior Worlds this if he stays upright at US Nationals if he has some senior GP results to back him up. Yes, the US men's field is pretty deep with Jason/Josh/Max/Adam/Jeremy and as a fan of all of those men, I'm certainly not advocating to potentially see Nathan Chen replace one of them on the Worlds team this year. But the intensely deep field of Russian ladies seems to really be helping them, and maybe it'll help the US men, too, rather than holding them back.

 

[mrrice]

I'm certainly not advocating to potentially see Nathan Chen replace one of them on the Worlds team this year. But the intensely deep field of Russian ladies seems to really be helping them, and maybe it'll help the US men, too, rather than holding them back.

True!!:

 

[Sam-Skwantch]

I actually think this is a good year for the US Fed to shake up both the guys and gals with an unconventional selection for 4CC and if all goes well allow them a chance at Worlds. Even if someone has a slight edge. It could fuel a fire in the passed over skater(s) and potentially build another's reputation. Two years away from the Olympics is a good time to take a gamble. The only side effect I can see is potentially damaging another skaters reputation but...again....with two years left a few good skates can repair that.

Maybe it's a bit bold but at times that's exactly what I'd like to see from our skaters . Boldness.

 

[noskates]

Well at the risk of ducking tomatoes, I would like to see the USFSA stop supporting the older skaters like Jeremy (glad he decided to skip GPs) and give a try to some of the younger skaters to get the experience.

 

[sabinfire]

Well at the risk of ducking tomatoes, I would like to see the USFSA stop supporting the older skaters like Jeremy (glad he decided to skip GPs) and give a try to some of the younger skaters to get the experience.

No tomato-throwing here. I love Jeremy and his skating style, and hope he continues to skate for as long as his heart desires.

On the other hand, I was really glad to see he's sitting out the GP series (and opening up spots for younger & more promising skaters), though his reasons for doing so seem a little... odd.

The USFSA has a lot of work to do on several fronts, but overall, I agree that they should be putting more support into their younger talent if they want to maximize their chances of remaining competitive internationally in the coming years.

 

[aromaticchicken]

Well at the risk of ducking tomatoes, I would like to see the USFSA stop supporting the older skaters like Jeremy (glad he decided to skip GPs) and give a try to some of the younger skaters to get the experience.

If jeremy was hogging GPs or getting assignments after bombing (say, for instance, if he had got put on the world team this past March), I would agree with you, but at this point I doubt the USFSA would put him on a team unless he medals at nationals. And if he really does skate well and is judged fairly and beats others at nationals, he should have a right to compete.

Like others said above with Nathan Chen, and as Rafael Aruntunian said in a recent interview, if one wants to be a champion, they shouldn't care who is competing at what events.

I welcome jeremy if he can give the younger skaters a run for their money. Especially because unlike others eyeing a comeback (cough) plushenko (cough) jeremy really skates like an artist and is enjoyable to watch due to his all around skating skills and performance quality; doesn't just rely on his points. It was a treat to see his skate at nationals this past year, especially his strong short program.

 

[aromaticchicken]

Also want to add that his short program score last year was pretty indicative of his standing to the federation. He skated pretty well, but was placed below both Jason and Joshua. And he was below Jason by a wide margin. It was a pretty clear message: "if you want to compete fine. But don't expect any favors, you'll have to beat the others fair and square."

 

[Hyena]

I actually think this is a good year for the US Fed to shake up both the guys and gals with an unconventional selection for 4CC and if all goes well allow them a chance at Worlds. Even if someone has a slight edge. It could fuel a fire in the passed over skater(s) and potentially build another's reputation. Two years away from the Olympics is a good time to take a gamble. The only side effect I can see is potentially damaging another skaters reputation but...again....with two years left a few good skates can repair that.

Maybe it's a bit bold but at times that's exactly what I'd like to see from our skaters . Boldness.

Hmm, what do you mean by "unconventional selection"? I could picture something like this: top 2 from Nationals get a place on the Worlds team assuming they also had strong GP seasons. Numbers 3, 4, and 5 go to 4CC and we see who delivers on that stage. I can see the advantages being an opportunity for multiple skaters to increase their World Standing and possibly their SB, which could help them out the following season even if they don't get selected for Worlds. The disadvantage is with 4CC so soon after Nationals that we rarely seem to see the best performances from US skaters.

 

[TMC]

Hmm, what do you mean by "unconventional selection"? I could picture something like this: top 2 from Nationals get a place on the Worlds team assuming they also had strong GP seasons. Numbers 3, 4, and 5 go to 4CC and we see who delivers on that stage. I can see the advantages being an opportunity for multiple skaters to increase their World Standing and possibly their SB, which could help them out the following season even if they don't get selected for Worlds. The disadvantage is with 4CC so soon after Nationals that we rarely seem to see the best performances from US skaters.

Apart from Jason and Joshua last season

 

[chuckm]

I disagree with the 4CC skate-off. That just makes Nationals results questionable, as if they are not 100% the last word. Absolutely NOT a good idea!!

 

[Hyena]

Yes, another disadvantage is that it lowers the stakes at Nationals somewhat. But, that leads to the question of WHY Nationals should be "100% the last word"? I could see it being frustrating for whoever places 3rd to have earned that spot on the podium but still have to fight for a spot of the World team. (As you can see I'm not saying this is definitely something that should happen, just an idea Sam-Skwantch prompted that I'm playing with )

I think this might be getting a little off-topic though. About Nathan: I had assumed he'd go senior this year. Would it be better to do the JGP or Senior Bs in the fall if he doesn't get any GP assignments? If he places top 3 at Nationals I would assume he would get sent to Worlds anyway, like Polina last year.

 

[centerpt1]

Well at the risk of ducking tomatoes, I would like to see the USFSA stop supporting the older skaters like Jeremy (glad he decided to skip GPs) and give a try to some of the younger skaters to get the experience.

Jeremy got no support last year assignment wise. They could have given him a 4CC slot to help him with points. They could have pulled an Ashley Wagner for him-they didn't. Jeremy has got nothing he didn't have to earn, even before last season. He asked for international prep competitions in the past and wasn't given them. He gets no favors.

 

[Ice Dance]

About Nathan: I had assumed he'd go senior this year. Would it be better to do the JGP or Senior Bs in the fall if he doesn't get any GP assignments? If he places top 3 at Nationals I would assume he would get sent to Worlds anyway, like Polina last year.

There's no way he hasn't earned a GP spot. But word has it he's competing juniors instead, which would allow the USFSA to give the spot at SA to someone else. (I'm thinking a second spot for Miner--who already has one & has had plenty of opportunities).

Assumptions are very very dangerous now that the spots for Worlds aren't set in stone by placements at Nationals. Polina had to place second at Nationals to "earn" that spot two years ago. Third would not have done it, and many people criticized her selection over Mirai's as it was. With no senior scores to back him up, Nathan would have very little evidence to defend a spot if he did skate lights-out at Nationals and the guys he wound up displacing had a substantial history of being competitive at senior Worlds. Jeremy? Jason? Do you think they could finish fourth without Nathan getting bumped? And before anyone feels compelled to post that there's no way Nathan could defeat them, I would point out that Johnny Weir did not make the World team the year after he won bronze at Worlds. Evan finished third at Nationals both the year he won worlds and the year he won the Olympics. Often it's the guys with the highest expectations who have the hardest time at Nationals.

All that said, I don't expect a placement on the World team to be the issue for Nathan this season. It's what would be better for him in the long run.

And ultimately that should be a decision for him and his team.

I'd just love to see him pushing some boundaries and all our top U.S. guys.

 

[StitchMonkey]

There's no way he hasn't earned a GP spot. But word has it he's competing juniors instead, which would allow the USFSA to give the spot at SA to someone else. (I'm thinking a second spot for Miner--who already has one & has had plenty of opportunities).

Actually he has not.


http://www.isuresults.com/isujsstat/sb2014-15/sbtsmto.htm

He is 33 on season best, so not top 24, so he did not "earn" a guaranteed spot. Any spots he got would be host pick.

That might be why he is being sent back to juniors, he was not in a position to tell USFSA that he was guaranteed one spot, and without that guarantee, it may not have been worth it for him to risk it. At least if he stays junior, he gets practice. It might be better for him to stay junior this year and get on the top 24 list for next season.

 

[apgold]

Nathan just turned 16 in May, so I don't think keeping him in juniors for another year is so bad. Maybe he will do better this year without all of his injuries and be on the podium at Jr Worlds. He can also work with Rafa on his PCS, work on perfecting his 3A, and keep adding to his quad arsenal.

I think at 17, he will be ready to turn senior and be a podium threat.

 

[Ice Dance]

He is 33 on season best, so not top 24, so he did not "earn" a guaranteed spot. Any spots he got would be host pick.

Yes, perhaps I should have said relative to the rest of the U.S. field. The next highest competing American on this list is Timothy Dolensky--ranked 54th & also just defeated by Nathan. Plus, what is the chance that Douglass Razzano--who is lower on the list--would have been overlooked if he hadn't decided to retire? I'd assume the USFSA will just give a second spot to Ross or Grant, but neither of them are top 24 either. And they both already have one slot. Nathan would be an obvious pick if it wasn't for the fact that he's still eligible for juniors.

 

[Hyena]

There's no way he hasn't earned a GP spot. But word has it he's competing juniors instead, which would allow the USFSA to give the spot at SA to someone else. (I'm thinking a second spot for Miner--who already has one & has had plenty of opportunities).

Assumptions are very very dangerous now that the spots for Worlds aren't set in stone by placements at Nationals. Polina had to place second at Nationals to "earn" that spot two years ago. Third would not have done it, and many people criticized her selection over Mirai's as it was. With no senior scores to back him up, Nathan would have very little evidence to defend a spot if he did skate lights-out at Nationals and the guys he wound up displacing had a substantial history of being competitive at senior Worlds. Jeremy? Jason? Do you think they could finish fourth without Nathan getting bumped? And before anyone feels compelled to post that there's no way Nathan could defeat them, I would point out that Johnny Weir did not make the World team the year after he won bronze at Worlds. Evan finished third at Nationals both the year he won worlds and the year he won the Olympics. Often it's the guys with the highest expectations who have the hardest time at Nationals.

All that said, I don't expect a placement on the World team to be the issue for Nathan this season. It's what would be better for him in the long run.

And ultimately that should be a decision for him and his team.

If Nathan finishes ahead of Jeremy, I think Nathan will be on the Worlds team. Same with Adam and probably Josh, unless the latter has a great GP season (which he's capable of). I'm not sure about Max, since we've seen the US support him in the past two years when he's finished just out of the top (3rd in 2014 and 4th last year). Not sure about Jason either.

I'd just love to see him pushing some boundaries and all our top U.S. guys.

I agree wholeheartedly!

 

[karne]

Also want to add that his short program score last year was pretty indicative of his standing to the federation. He skated pretty well, but was placed below both Jason and Joshua. And he was below Jason by a wide margin. It was a pretty clear message: "if you want to compete fine. But don't expect any favors, you'll have to beat the others fair and square."

Four points is not a "wide margin" when you add in a muffed jump and a level 3 vs level 4 spin.

Jeremy got no support last year assignment wise. They could have given him a 4CC slot to help him with points. They could have pulled an Ashley Wagner for him-they didn't. Jeremy has got nothing he didn't have to earn, even before last season. He asked for international prep competitions in the past and wasn't given them. He gets no favors.

Why should they have "pulled an Ashley Wagner" for him? It's not like Jeremy has a record of proving himself at big event. And sure, they could have given Jeremy a 4CCs spot - but Max SHOULD have got one, and had to hang around as the eternal substitute until he finally got thrown a scrap of "oh jeez, I guess it doesn't look so great that this is the one time the pewter medallist gets nothing, maybe we should send him to WTT".

You can't expect favours when you finish fifth. You can expect to get a post-Nationals assignment, even 4CC, when you finish 4th. If this hadn't been a WTT year, Max would have got nothing at all. For finishing on the podium, when the year before everyone down to sixth got something!

Nathan just turned 16 in May, so I don't think keeping him in juniors for another year is so bad. Maybe he will do better this year without all of his injuries and be on the podium at Jr Worlds. He can also work with Rafa on his PCS, work on perfecting his 3A, and keep adding to his quad arsenal.

I think at 17, he will be ready to turn senior and be a podium threat.

Joshua and Jason were still Juniors at 18, and were much more well-rounded skaters at the start of that season. So if they were held back, I don't see how it would be terrible that Nathan is too. Force him to work on the other stuff (since no quad is allowed in the short as a Jr) as well as the jumps.

 

[Jammers]

Four points is not a "wide margin" when you add in a muffed jump and a level 3 vs level 4 spin.



Why should they have "pulled an Ashley Wagner" for him? It's not like Jeremy has a record of proving himself at big event. And sure, they could have given Jeremy a 4CCs spot - but Max SHOULD have got one, and had to hang around as the eternal substitute until he finally got thrown a scrap of "oh jeez, I guess it doesn't look so great that this is the one time the pewter medallist gets nothing, maybe we should send him to WTT".

You can't expect favours when you finish fifth. You can expect to get a post-Nationals assignment, even 4CC, when you finish 4th. If this hadn't been a WTT year, Max would have got nothing at all. For finishing on the podium, when the year before everyone down to sixth got something!



Joshua and Jason were still Juniors at 18, and were much more well-rounded skaters at the start of that season. So if they were held back, I don't see how it would be terrible that Nathan is too. Force him to work on the other stuff (since no quad is allowed in the short as a Jr) as well as the jumps.

And it could be argued that both Jason and Joshua was kept in Juniors a year to long also. You need to get talent out there as soon as possible just look at the Russians and how they get their girls out there as soon as they can.