2015-16 State of U.S. Men's Figure Skating

[Mrs. P]

I'm feeling a odd sense of deja vu regarding Nathan Chen.

Shall we go back in time, people?

http://www.goldenskate.com/forum/showthread.php?37859-Men-s-LP-JGP-Austria-2012

For those who can't be bother to read, Nathan won 2012 GP Austria with incredible scores for a junior, and higher than what Josh Farris scored at Lake Placid and Jason Brown (at Courchavel, France). His SP was 75+ and his FS was 145+ for a total of 222+. In comparison, Jason had scored just 185.81 and Josh scored 218.69.

At the time, Jason just got beat by Boyang Jin and not only was the 3A was completely missing, he was getting edge calls on his 3Z. Joshua Farris actually did quite well at Lake Placid having done a quad, but his score was still lower than Nathan's who only had a 3A.

Of course the bad news is not long after that competition, Nathan got diagnosed Osgood Schlatter that set him back and then had injuries off-and-on. Joshua and Jason went on to be 1+2 at Jr. Worlds later that season (along wtih Shotaro Omori to make it a USA sweep).

Of course, Nathan's future might have been delayed and he's on his way now --- and I want to make it clear I do hope the injuries and struggles are behind him -- but the point is that you can't really predict anything.

I think let's just say yay Nathan for a good summer and say he's the highest scoring US Man right now and showing tons of potential for further success this season. I don't see the benefit of conjecture of dominance cause the U.S. men (and men in general) is just too darn unpredictable.

 

[noskates]

:agree:

It's wayyyy too soon to be talking about how this season is going to end up based on one competition. I do think skaters peak at one point and we always hope it's Nationals and Worlds.

Yay for Nathan and I, too, hope his injuries are behind him.

 

[Celine]

He's a smart kid. Presumably he put his time to great use developing in other important ways that could benefit him as a skater and competitor, even if he couldn't compete.

 

[Mrs. P]

I wrote this on FSU, but I noted some interesting (and sad/scary?) statistics regarding the competition of U.S. men World teams.

Here's an interesting and scary statistic: Since 2010, the reigning national champion has not only been able to defend his title, he has not even able to get on the World team.

2010 - Jeremy Abbott (4th the following year)
2011 - Ryan Bradley (He retired, but the pattern stands, I guess).
2012 - Jeremy Abbott (3rd the following year, missed World team as there were only two spots)
2013 - Max Aaron (3rd the following year, did go to Worlds, but missed Olympic team due to 2 spots)
2014 - Jeremy Abbott (5th the following year).

So will Jason Brown break the curse in 2016 or will he have the same ill fate? We will see...

And with two very notable exception, most of the US men have not managed to get on the World/Olympic team for two straight years:

2010: Jeremy Abbott, Ryan Bradley*, Adam Rippon (Abbott missed it by one spot, see above; Rippon was 5th again; Bradley did get on the World team two years, see note below)
2011: Ryan Bradley, Richard Dornbush, Ross Miner (Ryan retired, Richard finished a dismal 13th and Ross was short one spot in 3rd).
2012: Jeremy Abbott, Adam Rippon (Jeremy missed it by one spot again in 2013; Adam was 5th the following year)
2013: Max Aaron, Ross Miner (Max Aaron, technical did get on two world teams on a technicality*; Miner was 8th the following year).
2014: Jeremy Abbott, Jason Brown*, Max Aaron (Jeremy was 5th; see note on Brown, Aaron)
2015: Jason Brown, Adam Rippon

*Ryan Bradley (4th at 2010 Nationals) and Adam Rippon (5th at 2010 Nationals) replaced Evan Lysacek and Johnny Weir after they opted out of Worlds, post Olympics. So technically Bradley did serve on two consecutive Worlds teams, but he would not have under normal circumstances).

*Okay, had they gone the usual top two, Jason Brown would have been on two consecutive World teams. Alas, he was on the Olympic team in 2014 and the World team in 2015, so technically, he did manage to get on two teams for major comps two years in a row. Max Aaron, technically did serve on two consecutive World teams, but he wouldn't have under the typical selection process.

In the last six years, we had seven different men make the World/Olympic team. And six of them (including Jeremy, whose status is unknown) are still in active competition for now:

Jeremy Abbott: 2010, 2012, 2014
Adam Rippon: 2010, 2012, 2015
Ross Miner: 2011, 2013
Max Aaron: 2013, 2014 (post-Olympics Worlds)
Jason Brown: 2014 (Olympics), 2015
Richard Dornbush: 2011

And one cannot forget Joshua Farris and Nathan Chen. Heck Grant Hochstein and Tim Dolensky could come in and shock everyone. it's going to be an interesting season.

 

[semosk8tfan]

Wow, Mrs. P, that is scary and fascinating at the same time and when you add in the fact that highest placement at Worlds in that time frame was Jason's 4th (AFAIK), it becomes depressing. I really hope Jason can break the cycle!! And I totally agree that this year is shaping up to be very interesting.

Thank you for taking the time from your busy new Mom schedule (belated congrats on your baby BTW) to put together this info. You totally rock.

 

[mrrice]

Mrs. P, I have long said that the people on this site are the best and you are further proof. Thank you so much for taking the time to do this write up for all of us.

 

[caitie]

I wrote this on FSU, but I noted some interesting (and sad/scary?) statistics regarding the competition of U.S. men World teams.

I'd say that there are some mitigating factors here, mainly that Jeremy Abbott is Jeremy Abbott (super inconsistent). I do think it speaks to how much depth there is in the US and how unpredictable men's figure skating is in general. The harder the jumps have gotten, the less consistent the men have (understandably) gotten, and there's always someone right behind you in the US so there's not a ton of room for error.

Also, the relatively poor performances of the US men at Worlds could have something to do with how difficult it is to peak twice -- you want to peak at Worlds, but you need to be in good form to make the Worlds team as well.

 

[Mrs. P]

Several U.S. men are skating now at the U.S. Collegiate Championships: Max Aaron, Richard Dornbush, Alexander Johnson and Patrick Rupp (who was at Nationals last year).

http://www.usfigureskating.org/leaderboard/results/2015/2015_us_co_champs/CAT002SEG003.html

After two skaters, Max Aaron is currently in first with 73.98 with Richard Dornbush at 71.92.

I'd say that there are some mitigating factors here, mainly that Jeremy Abbott is Jeremy Abbott (super inconsistent). I do think it speaks to how much depth there is in the US and how unpredictable men's figure skating is in general. The harder the jumps have gotten, the less consistent the men have (understandably) gotten, and there's always someone right behind you in the US so there's not a ton of room for error.

Also, the relatively poor performances of the US men at Worlds could have something to do with how difficult it is to peak twice -- you want to peak at Worlds, but you need to be in good form to make the Worlds team as well.

Yes, that is true. But Jeremy Abbott was able to defend his title once (in 2010 and in defining fashion beating Lysacek and Weir). And yes I agree with your point regarding depth/technical challenges/etc. It's a similar scenario with the Russian ladies. In fact, it's more extreme. There has been two instances where the reigning Worlds medalist ended up not qualifying for the Worlds team the following year (Leonova in 2013 and Lipnitskaia in 2015).

 

[Ice Dance]

Well, I am excited about Nathan. Excited. Excited!

No predictions whatsoever. Hype is no one's friend. And I think we are so blessed to have so many men with different styles, musicality, & wonderful performance strengths in the U.S. field. But that does not preclude excitement & recognizing something special hovering on the horizon. To me this young man has a brand of potential that I haven't seen in the U.S. men's field since the quad became "mandatory." It's not because he looks good in these two competitions. (I think he looks very good). And it's not because he defeated anyone in particular. (Obviously most of these guys are not at the same level of conditioning as Nathan right now, and I fully expect them to be well-conditioned as the season progresses). It's because we've been watching him a long time now, and we know that Nathan can be a performer. He can hear the music. He can connect to an audience. He can compete. (Big plus in the men's field right now if he can take the competitive ability into the senior field with him). And he has just A. demonstrated the ability to hit a quad in numerous programs in a row and B. that the axle--the absence of which put him in a hole last season--is no longer off the table. It's the blend that's unique. Potential may not be realized. All kinds of plausible obstacles. But I haven't seen this particular blend of potential in the U.S. field before. So, yeah, I'm excited.

As for the pattern of U.S. champions/favorites not repeating, the placements that really get me are 2009 & 2010. Evan. He placed third at U.S. Nationals the year he won Worlds and second the year he won the Olympics. Evan was not like Jeremy Abbott. Overall, I consider Evan to have had quite a consistent career. So why third & second at Nationals in the two defining seasons of his international career? I just think it says something about the different form of pressure that exists at a nationals. It's not limited to the U.S. either. For years, I remember hearing Russian champions saying that Russian Nationals was their toughest event of the season. And I remember many Russian champions declining to compete there for just that reason. The pressure & the politics are different at Nationals. Up and comers have a much better shot at Nationals than they do against compatriots when they compete internationally. And reigning champions have to deal with the mental switch of "defending" a title and the practical challenge of needing to still be at their best later in the season at Worlds/4CC's/Europeans.

 

[Mrs. P]

Well, I am excited about Nathan. Excited. Excited!

No predictions whatsoever. Hype is no one's friend. And I think we are so blessed to have so many men with different styles, musicality, & wonderful performance strengths in the U.S. field. But that does not preclude excitement & recognizing something special hovering on the horizon. To me this young man has a brand of potential that I haven't seen in the U.S. men's field since the quad became "mandatory." It's not because he looks good in these two competitions. (I think he looks very good). And it's not because he defeated anyone in particular. (Obviously most of these guys are not at the same level of conditioning as Nathan right now, and I fully expect them to be well-conditioned as the season progresses). It's because we've been watching him a long time now, and we know that Nathan can be a performer. He can hear the music. He can connect to an audience. He can compete. (Big plus in the men's field right now if he can take the competitive ability into the senior field with him). And he has just A. demonstrated the ability to hit a quad in numerous programs in a row and B. that the axle--the absence of which put him in a hole last season--is no longer off the table. It's the blend that's unique. Potential may not be realized. All kinds of plausible obstacles. But I haven't seen this particular blend of potential in the U.S. field before. So, yeah, I'm excited.

As for the pattern of U.S. champions/favorites not repeating, the placements that really get me are 2009 & 2010. Evan. He placed third at U.S. Nationals the year he won Worlds and second the year he won the Olympics. Evan was not like Jeremy Abbott. Overall, I consider Evan to have had quite a consistent career. So why third & second at Nationals in the two defining seasons of his international career? I just think it says something about the different form of pressure that exists at a nationals. It's not limited to the U.S. either. For years, I remember hearing Russian champions saying that Russian Nationals was their toughest event of the season. And I remember many Russian champions declining to compete there for just that reason. The pressure & the politics are different at Nationals. Up and comers have a much better shot at Nationals than they do against compatriots when they compete internationally. And reigning champions have to deal with the mental switch of "defending" a title and the practical challenge of needing to still be at their best later in the season at Worlds/4CC's/Europeans.

I think it's cool to be excited. In fact, that's probably a great thing that Nathan's skating has evoked that feeling in you -- what fun is it to be down in the dumps anyway? And you have great reasons to be excited.

I guess my initial point was that Nathan's success =/= Doom and gloom for his competition. I find it humorous that some think the other men should be nervous or something because Nathan's doing well. If anything, most of the men are hungry and focus on their own success.

And regarding Evan: He may have not always been able to defend his title or win every year, he always did enough to get on the World team. I think what was more disconcerting that we had U.S. men who were U.S. Champs one year then totally got off the podium the next. Or heck, even men who haven't been able to get on the World Team on a consistent basis. Or maybe on the other hand, that's reflective of greater depth in the men's ranked compared to the Evan/Johnny era. I wasn't following super closely back then, so maybe someone can speak to that.

 

[Ice Dance]

I guess my initial point was that Nathan's success =/= Doom and gloom for his competition. I find it humorous that some think the other men should be nervous or something because Nathan's doing well. If anything, most of the men are hungry and focus on their own success.

Totally agree with this. Though I think sometimes people leap to the conclusion when you post something positive about an athlete and mention another athlete to illustrate a point of comparison that you are arguing against the other athlete's chances. I was just posting about why Stepanova & Bukin stand out to me from last season, and immediately I received several posts arguing that I&Z have more potential. I hadn't expressed any opinion on I&Z. It's a sport, so I guess that can color our interpretations of even the most positive posts with a competitive outlook.

Speaking of Johnny . . .

Did not make the 2009 World team, despite having earned the bronze medal at the 2008 Worlds (his highest international finish)--and thereby earned a third spot for the U.S. team at the 2009 Worlds. A spot he did not get. In the long run, it may have been the best thing for him as he came back a much stronger competitor for the Olympic season.

There are all kinds of crazy dynamics. I think the pressure on both Evan and Johnny after that year they tied for points at Nationals was extraordinary. I also remember the camera in Johnny's face at the first Nationals in Spokane. Evan had just broken the record, and I have never seen a camera so completely in an athlete's face while they were preparing to compete. Their rivalry was intense. It didn't matter if one or both of them was/were defeated by Jeremy/Ryan/Brandon. Evan & Johnny knew they were one another's "real" competition. We knew they were our best bet in international competition. The push for the quad undermined some of their consistency at Nationals the last couple years of their careers, but ultimately there they were--in the final group at the Olympics.

As for Evan's consistently making the World team, I think Frank is very, very smart. He's not going to let pressure push him into having an athlete compete an element he or she cannot perform consistently in practice. He's not going to shuffle elements to the back half of a program for points if he thinks it will undermine the athlete's ability to perform with confidence. Evan tried the quad when he could afford to lose the points. When he couldn't he did not. Some athletes I think would have benefitted from this approach: Amodio, Brezina, Abbott. These guys have never had consistent quads, but they were once more confident skaters. They are not now. Frank knows confidence in competition can make a greater difference in the results than any element. I hope Kori will turn out to have the same backbone and viewpoint if Jason cannot rotate his jumps as we come to the significant events late in the season. Because, IMO, that confidence in competition is Jason's greatest strength. (And this is a guy with a LOT of strengths).

 

[aromaticchicken]

Mrs. P and Ice Dance, I think both of you hit the nail on the head. Nathan is something quite special, and I look forward to seeing the impact him entering the podium mix will have on the dynamic of those currently occupying the top rung (Jason, Joshua, Adam, Max, and even Ricky and Ross). Any of these men could be National Champion and on the World Team next year, and I love how exciting that is.

 

[Mrs. P]

Mrs. P and Ice Dance, I think both of you hit the nail on the head. Nathan is something quite special, and I look forward to seeing the impact him entering the podium mix will have on the dynamic of those currently occupying the top rung (Jason, Joshua, Adam, Max, and even Ricky and Ross). Any of these men could be National Champion and on the World Team next year, and I love how exciting that is.

Yes, I can't wait to track how the men do this season and how they fare on their international events, JGP, Senior B's and GPs.

The off-season is quickly coming to an end JGP starts next week!
Vincent Zhou, who is competing as a senior nationally, will be competing at JGP Slovakia, Aug. 19-23.
Nathan Chen's next event is JGP USA in Colorado Springs on Sept. 2-6.
I think the rest of the JGP men are juniors internationally.

We should also be hearing soon regarding pre-GP Senior B Assignments/Challenger Series assignments.

Challenger Series
U.S. International Figure Skating Classic (Sept. 16-20; entry deadline was July 24)
Nebelhorn Trophy (Sept. 24-26; Deadline is Aug. 22)
Ondrej Nepela Trophy (Oct. 1-3; Deadline is Aug. 15)
Finlandia Trophy (Oct. 8-11; Deadline is Aug. 16)

Senior B:
Autumn Classic (Oct. 13-15; Deadline is Aug. 14) this will be a fun one cause Hanyu is going to be there!!)

Skate America starts the following weekend after Autumn Classic.

 

[el henry]

Totally agree with this. Though I think sometimes people leap to the conclusion when you post something positive about an athlete and mention another athlete to illustrate a point of comparison that you are arguing against the other athlete's chances. I was just posting about why Stepanova & Bukin stand out to me from last season, and immediately I received several posts arguing that I&Z have more potential. I hadn't expressed any opinion on I&Z. It's a sport, so I guess that can color our interpretations of even the most positive posts with a competitive outlook.
....

Ice Dance, I love that you are excited about Nathan and/or other competitors. Someone who brings positive excitement to the mix makes for good discussion.

There have however, and I don't know if it is this thread or even this forum, been posts that were presumably positive about Nathan but then segued immediately into putting down the other competitors. To the effect of, and this is not exact quoting: "Nathan has a consistent quad. Other US men, you should be quaking in your skating boots, Nathan has a consistent quad. I wouldn't be surprised if Nathan skates all over all those other US men with his consistent quad." It had nothing to do with "reading into" the post, but out and out negative comparisons.

Of course you and Mrs. P are right. All the men are concentrating on upping their own game, however that may be. As they say in track, you need to run your own race. Now for some comps where the men start racing....

 

[Ice Dance]

I do think young & upcoming skaters are always very dangerous. Right up until they win something. Because until that happens on the Senior International level, they don't really know they can. They skate with nothing to lose. Utterly on the attack. Shoma, for example. I think he has a tremendous advantage at Skate America. Why? Because no matter how well he did at Junior Worlds/4CC's/Japanese Nationals, he's not going to truly believe he can win until it happens. But if he wins SA, boom, that advantage is gone and TEB because a very different competition. One of my favorite quotes was by Irina Slutskaya at the GPF heading into the 2006 Olympics. I don't remember her words exactly, but essentially she said, "Of course, Mao won. She's 15." (Or whatever age Mao was). But Irina was exactly right. Mao had nothing to lose at that GPF. She couldn't qualify for the Olympics. As soon as she could, winning became much, much harder. There are a million examples. I always think the competition after that first big win is the one that tells you a lot about an athlete's competitive grit.

 

[Ice Dance]

=
U.S. International Figure Skating Classic (Sept. 16-20; entry deadline was July 24)

Really looking forward to seeing this list. Shoma is already assigned here, and with it being the only Challenger event in North America, I think it could turn out to have quite a field.

 

[Shani]

Sadly I think US figure skating should actually pull Nathan Chen from JGP and give him the Skate America free slot. It takes so much effort to learn 5 programs, Junior and Senior SP's and FS plus exhibitions. His summer scores proved it. He has earned the slot, give him senior experience.

 

[aromaticchicken]

Sadly I think US figure skating should actually pull Nathan Chen from JGP and give him the Skate America free slot. It takes so much effort to learn 5 programs, Junior and Senior SP's and FS plus exhibitions. His summer scores proved it. He has earned the slot, give him senior experience.

Again, this is an extremely short term view. Nathan can earn more points by doing well on the jgp and winning the jgpf. Doing so also sets him up better for junior world's. And yes, he can still compete at senior world's and 4cc with this route.

What does sending him to skate America (he won't get another senior gp) accomplish? The chance to score a bronze medal at best?

 

[Ice Dance]

The chance to score a bronze medal at best?

Hmm. Well, at best it would get him a chance to defeat Jason Brown and Max Aaron on the senior international stage before Nationals, 4CC, and World team selections. Personally, I wouldn't anticipate either and just think the experience of skating against all those top level international men could be a great driving force for Nathan. But you did say "at best."

 

[karne]

I'm actually not all that sold on Chen. Sure, he can jump - now. I'm yet to see anything else that truly excites me.

And I resent the implication that every other male skater in the US is automatically rubbish and should give up and stop trying now just because this kid is, for once, not injured.