2015-16 State of U.S. Men's Figure Skating

[andromache]

I'm actually not all that sold on Chen. Sure, he can jump - now. I'm yet to see anything else that truly excites me.

And I resent the implication that every other male skater in the US is automatically rubbish and should give up and stop trying now just because this kid is, for once, not injured.

I don't think anyone is implying that .

If he stays injury-free he'll increase the depth of the US men and push them all to be better for those three spots at Nationals, and some here are arguing that senior-level competition internationally will push Nathan to be better, too.

At first I was on the "Nathan should go senior" train, but I see the argument for giving him a chance to dominate on the JGP, and potentially at Junior Worlds, to give him more points and recognition for when he goes senior next year.

I'm not getting my hopes up for Nathan to be the great hope of US men's skating any more than I am for any of the other men currently competing, particularly due to his history of injury. (And the same can be said for my favorite Josh :hopelessness. Right now, we just don't have any skaters with all the goods needed to get a World medal. But that could change at any time, depending on how the season goes. There's Max's potential for an artistic transformation, Jason's potential for a quad, and Josh's potential to stay healthy and compete like we know he can. And if Nathan stays healthy and polishes his skating over the next few years, he could be in the mix for a World medal too.

 

[aromaticchicken]

Hmm. Well, at best it would get him a chance to defeat Jason Brown and Max Aaron on the senior international stage before Nationals, 4CC, and World team selections. Personally, I wouldn't anticipate either and just think the experience of skating against all those top level international men could be a great driving force for Nathan. But you did say "at best."

He's already beat Jason once this month, hasn't he? (Yeah yeah, I know, Jason wasn't ready.) But if he beats Jason at Skate America, do you think that he automatically improves his position before Nationals? I don't think so, I think it is very clear to everyone that he has the goods. And if he delivers at Nationals, they will not be able to hold him back against the others, not if he throws his two clean quads and two clean 3As and the other men don't. And what if he *doesn't* hit clean quads OR if the others are able to also deliver technically? Then no, he doesn't deserve to be above them. If Jason gets his quad together, or if Josh/Max/Adam skate clean, Nathan will be below them. So beating them once at Skate America doesn't really do anything except take away his ability to dominate on the JGP, earn points, and go to JGPF -- which, btw, earns him a bye to Nationals so he doesn't have to deal with regionals and sectionals like he would if he did Skate America only.

At first I was on the "Nathan should go senior" train, but I see the argument for giving him a chance to dominate on the JGP, and potentially at Junior Worlds, to give him more points and recognition for when he goes senior next year.

I'm not getting my hopes up for Nathan to be the great hope of US men's skating any more than I am for any of the other men currently competing, particularly due to his history of injury. (And the same can be said for my favorite Josh :hopelessness. Right now, we just don't have any skaters with all the goods needed to get a World medal. But that could change at any time, depending on how the season goes. There's Max's potential for an artistic transformation, Jason's potential for a quad, and Josh's potential to stay healthy and compete like we know he can. And if Nathan stays healthy and polishes his skating over the next few years, he could be in the mix for a World medal too.

I'm pretty sure you specifically are aware of this, but I just wanted to reiterate I that I don't get why others are so obsessed with getting him on the Senior GP, when he still has a huge shot of making the Senior nationals podium and world team even if he does the Junior Grand Prix. Just look at Polina in 2013-14 -- she won her two JGPs, did the JGP Final, then went to her first nationals (with a bye) and won a silver medal (beating three former U.S. Champions while at it) and a trip to Worlds and the Olympics.

Nathan can do the same thing this year.

 

[noskates]

I think Nathan should stay in juniors.

 

[Ice Dance]

He's already beat Jason once this month, hasn't he? (Yeah yeah, I know, Jason wasn't ready.) But if he beats Jason at Skate America, do you think that he automatically improves his position before Nationals?

Just look at Polina in 2013-14 -- she won her two JGPs, did the JGP Final, then went to her first nationals (with a bye) and won a silver medal (beating three former U.S. Champions while at it) and a trip to Worlds and the Olympics.

Nathan can do the same thing this year.

Personally I am not obsessed with any one viewpoint about this topic. I can see both sides of the argument. I can answer your questions and comments and provide a very lengthy example of the two-way go-senior/stay-junior conversation going on in my head right now. But I’m hesitant to post it unless someone truly wishes to read it. Because it will likely serve to extend this apparently polarizing aspect of the discussion. I’m so excited about the current crop of American men’s skaters. Cannot think of a time when I’ve been rooting for so many guys (at least 4) at a U.S. Nationals. Though I will be rooting for Denis at everything else so you might not get this impression from my posts throughout the season.

 

[karne]

Well, let's put it another way. If the USFS wouldn't put a pair of very mature, artistically refined, very-ready-for-Senior 18 year olds up, then why would they put up a very unpolished and not-ready 16 year old?

Joshua and Jason looked almost absurd on the JGP/JWC that year because they were so obviously light years ahead of everyone else in terms of refinement and skating, and Kovtun (who was definitely not those two things) was the only one who could match Joshua jump-for-jump. But the USFS still did it, and they still kept Joshua at JWC even after his pewter medal at Nationals. Of course, in theory, it worked, because Joshua and Jason would go on to finish 1-2 at Junior Worlds, just four points apart.

Heck, the USFS wanted to keep Jason as a junior ANOTHER year (at 19!) so HE could then go win the JWC. That was when they got the real pushback, and we got Riverdance.

There was more argument then for Joshua and Jason to go Senior than there is now for Chen. Just my two cents.

 

[noskates]

Yeah that. :thumbsup:

 

[Jammers]

Well, let's put it another way. If the USFS wouldn't put a pair of very mature, artistically refined, very-ready-for-Senior 18 year olds up, then why would they put up a very unpolished and not-ready 16 year old?

Joshua and Jason looked almost absurd on the JGP/JWC that year because they were so obviously light years ahead of everyone else in terms of refinement and skating, and Kovtun (who was definitely not those two things) was the only one who could match Joshua jump-for-jump. But the USFS still did it, and they still kept Joshua at JWC even after his pewter medal at Nationals. Of course, in theory, it worked, because Joshua and Jason would go on to finish 1-2 at Junior Worlds, just four points apart.

Heck, the USFS wanted to keep Jason as a junior ANOTHER year (at 19!) so HE could then go win the JWC. That was when they got the real pushback, and we got Riverdance.

There was more argument then for Joshua and Jason to go Senior than there is now for Chen. Just my two cents.

But really was Nam Nguyen at 16 really ready to be on the Senior GP last year? Although he had the jumps he was very juniorish in his skating just like Nathan but he did just fine.

 

[Interspectator]

Here's a question; is there a skater who made the switch to senior early who didn't do very well and probably should have stayed Junior another year? Why do US officials encourage staying junior so long? It hasn't tangibly helped their skaters make the change to seniors. --Or so it seems to me.
I'm interested to hear about the thinking behind the relatively late switch to Seniors for the American Men.

And for Clarification, for me, early is 14-15, average is 16-17, late is 18-19.

 

[andromache]

But really was Nam Nguyen at 16 really ready to be on the Senior GP last year? Although he had the jumps he was very juniorish in his skating just like Nathan but he did just fine.

The argument there would be that, without Patrick Chan skating last season, juniorish Nam was still far more competitive than the other Canadian men. From a nationalistic standpoint, Nam going senior was 100% the right decision. The top 4-5 US men, sans Nathan, are far stronger than the top Canadian men (sans Nam and Patrick) hence the decision to keep Nathan junior and for Nam to go senior.

Either way, I see the pros and cons for both sides of the "should Nathan go senior?" debate, and I'm happy with the decision to stay junior (as I would be happy if he went senior, because both have merit.)

I do think the USFS has a tendency to hold back their men a little too long--as karne's example of USFS wanting Jason to stay junior for 2013-2014 proves. Working out some juniorish kinks in one's skating as a senior isn't the worst thing. Unlike in ladies, it's rarer for a man to make a splash as a senior when he's first coming from juniors, no matter how well he does at Junior Worlds.

 

[Shani]

Nathan Chen looks ready this season at seniors to get some experience, and score reasonably internationally. He is competing seniors in the USA and outscoring many. The problem is when skaters compete seniors in US(or elsewhere) and compete Juniors internationally they have to practice two short programs and two freeskates, plus an exhibition program. This is double what they do competing at one level so it can be an issue. Any male skater scoring 84 points on a short program worldwide should be senior circuit. It is not about winning the gold medal short term. US Figure skatings best interest is actually letting Chen struggle or not on the senior circuit. At worst case he bombs at Skate America and doesn't get another assignment. Kori Ade and Jason Brown moved to senior regardless. Jason was amazing in the Olympic season.

 

[aromaticchicken]

But really was Nam Nguyen at 16 really ready to be on the Senior GP last year? Although he had the jumps he was very juniorish in his skating just like Nathan but he did just fine.

Nam had already won the junior world title at that point, thus earning enough points to earn two grand prixs, and perhaps just as important, later starting order position. And despite skating very clean, he was still held down and only put on the podium at skate America because others above him faltered.

Again, Nathan is not at that point yet. I think that's what the USFSA is trying to go for. It's a long term plan, given that he is only 16 and most men don't debut senior until they are older/more accomplished unless they come from countries lacking depth.

 

[Mathman]

Do the skaters have a choice about whether they want to move up to seniors or not? Or is this strictly a decision of the National Federation?

 

[karne]

Nathan Chen looks ready this season at seniors to get some experience, and score reasonably internationally. He is competing seniors in the USA and outscoring many.

For goodness' sake, he's done two CLUB competitions - not even National level competitions! - and outscored a couple of Seniors whose season starts significantly later than Chen's and therefore are not as ready as he is.

He has yet to prove anything regarding any Senior scores internationally. Or Nationally, for that matter.

Don't go crowning the kid just yet. It's a long season ahead and if you think the other Senior men are just going to roll over and die, well, it's a daft way to think.

 

[aromaticchicken]

Do the skaters have a choice about whether they want to move up to seniors or not? Or is this strictly a decision of the National Federation?

Skaters have a choice -- e.g., Jason and Kori went against the USFSA's wishes by going senior the year of the Olympics.

Also, per his interview with TSL: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1s4iJf5Zsrw&t=3m15s

Nathan: "Based off of my results from last year, I didn't gain enough points for two senior grand prixs. My whole team decided that it's probably the smartest decision for me to just stay as a junior and fulfill what I need to do as a junior and when I start maturing more I can move up to senior, and hopefully that'll happen by next season."

 

[Shani]

In some part they do. Nathan was eighth at Us senior nationals injured. Jason, and Josh were seniors in US and Juniors internationally. Look at the ladies and pairs in US, China and Russia. On the International level age factors in. If a skater does well at senior Nationals they will get a JGP or Junior world assignment over a Junior Level skater. A skater can compete at seniors domestically at their Nationals and go on JGP if age eligible. A skater and coach decide the testing and competing level at their countries National competition. The country decides if they should compete at JGP or seniors internationally. International scores on respective circuits determine Grand Prix eligibility or Senior B. Remember China determines its International team, as does Austria, or Russia. The country gets the invite to send an athlete on its behalf.

 

[Ice Dance]

In some part they do. Nathan was eighth at Us senior nationals injured.

This is the bell-ringer isn't it? He was eighth. But he was injured. He was injured all last season. Every single placement he had was below expectations & his potential. If you make the decision based on last year's results, you get "stay-junior." If you make that decision based on what he can do and what he is doing, he is competitive with the U.S. senior field. In fact, if we take a look--not at what we think will happen with our rose-colored glasses--but at what actually happened in the men's event last season (et hem--Cup of China & TEB), a young less than polished guy with great jumps won two Grand Prix events & made the final. A guy who only had one Grand Prix event defeated the Olympic Gold Medalist and won NHK.

 

[HanDomi]

This is the bell-ringer isn't it? He was eighth. But he was injured. He was injured all last season. Every single placement he had was below expectations & his potential. If you make the decision based on last year's results, you get "stay-junior." If you make that decision based on what he can do and what he is doing, he is competitive with the U.S. senior field. In fact, if we take a look--not at what we think will happen with our rose-colored glasses--but at what actually happened in the men's event last season (et hem--Cup of China & TEB), a young less than polished guy with great jumps won two Grand Prix events & made the final. A guy who only had one Grand Prix event defeated the Olympic Gold Medalist and won NHK.

He is young and already can land two quad toes in free skate which other US men can;t do, besides Max Aaron. I don't know why others are trying to hold Nathan down. If he can stay healthy and consistent all season I am even typing him to fight for senior national title this season

 

[TMC]

He is young and already can land two quad toes in free skate which other US men can;t do, besides Max Aaron. I don't know why others are trying to hold Nathan down. If he can stay healthy and consistent all season I am even typing him to fight for senior national title this season

He is going for the Senior National title for sure, and I'd give him good odds to get it, too.

But I don't know that agreeing with the staying Junior side is "holding him down"? I might be wrong but don't the points the skaters get in competitions count towards ranking/standing and therefore future start groups/future assignments.

Just from the numbers point of view, best case scenario:

A) Go Senior: He does SA & 1-2 Senior Bs, then Senior Nats (does he get a bye or does he have to do regionals & sectionals?), then 4CC and Senior Worlds. He'd collect points from max. 5 competitions.

B) Stay Junior: He does 2 JGPs, JGPF, Senior Nats, then 4CC and either Junior or Senior Worlds or both. He could gather points from 6 competitions, but he'd be likely to place much higher (win JWC etc.) and thus potentially set himself up for going full Senior next season very well. And he'd have the chance to go to two Worlds, which would be great from a points (Jr) and experience (Sr) standpoint.

 

[silverlake22]

This is the bell-ringer isn't it? He was eighth. But he was injured. He was injured all last season. Every single placement he had was below expectations & his potential. If you make the decision based on last year's results, you get "stay-junior." If you make that decision based on what he can do and what he is doing, he is competitive with the U.S. senior field. In fact, if we take a look--not at what we think will happen with our rose-colored glasses--but at what actually happened in the men's event last season (et hem--Cup of China & TEB), a young less than polished guy with great jumps won two Grand Prix events & made the final. A guy who only had one Grand Prix event defeated the Olympic Gold Medalist and won NHK.

Historically, having a good run in the junior ranks generally sets you up well for success in seniors if you can maintain that momentum.

We saw Uno's success on the JGP last year lead to a 2nd place at senior JPN Nats, 5th place at 4CC (which was an amazing event, his overall score was really high), and a JW title.

Josh Farris did well in juniors during the 2012-2013 season and wound up placing 4th at Nationals and winning JW. He was a respectable 5th at his first GP where he beat Jeremy Abbott and was a contender for the Olympic team before he got injured. He still wound up having a solid nationals and showing at 4CCs later that season, anyways, and built on that this past season.

Dornbush competed on the JGP in 2011 and wound up 2nd at Nationals and made the senior World team where he was 9th and the highest placing American.

Jason Brown wound up making the Olympic team 1 season out of juniors, and that was with a 2012-2013 season where he didn't medal at the JGPF or Nationals and was beat out for the JW title.

Kovtun won the JGPF that season and then placed 5th at Euros and probably could have done well at Worlds if he had skated like he did the rest of that season (he wound up making the GPF and placing 4th at Worlds the following season, regardless).

Han Yan won JW in 2012 and then competed on the JGP again the following season, he didn't even make the JGPF but still went on to place 2nd at 4CCs that season and really should have been sent to senior Worlds.

So basically, if Nathan can do well on the JGP this season, he's setting himself up well. Ideally, he wants to go to senior Worlds I'm sure, and he still could, but in the event he doesn't make that team, he'd go into JW a favorite and accustomed to the junior length programs. Competing as a senior internationally last season, not having the best results, then coming back to JW didn't turn out so well for Pitkeev, so where Nathan is only 16 (the same age as Pitkeev last year), I don't think going full senior right now will really help him.

Nam is a bit of a different situation because he had already competed at Worlds at 15, was a shoo-in to make the World team given the Canadian field, and had the JW win and having Orser as a coach help increase his stock heading into last season. Additionally, while he did well all last season, his improvement was gradual and he wasn't exactly getting super scores (especially where PCS is concerned) early on last season. He wound up placing 5th at Worlds because he skated great there and had improved a lot over the course of the season. Nathan's situation is very different so I don't think Nam is the best comparison.

 

[el henry]

^^^Agreed.

I don't see how it is in *Nathan's* best interests to go senior this year. If he stays healthy, if he ups the artistic content, let him rip through the JGP and pile up the points. Then he can come to Nats full of confidence and experience and let 'em rip again. He's only 16, not 19, and the thrill of (possibly) besting other senior men on the Senior Circuit doesn't seem worth the risk. Because, as has been said, winning summer club comps is winning summer club comps. No guarantees he'd medal, whereas presumably he will do exceeding well on the JGP.

And it seems like this is the decision that Nathan's team has made....