2016-17 State of Japanese Ladies Skating

[FlattFan]

I disagree about Marin and Mai. We will not know until, lets say, GPF next year.
Marin is still a junior, and we do not know how she will be recieved in seniors and if she will manage to keep it up. I still remember how Wakaba was pampered as the next big thing, and while she has some amazing qualities, she is nowhere near top 10 this season. Same could happen to Marin.
Mai still looks juniorish, so we would need to see how she develops next season. All the momentum she has is pretty much sheer luck - she placed well because many other skaters bombed (she would totally be behind cleanish Anna and cleanish Ashley at worlds, for example. Also behind cleanish Caro. Maybe even behind cleanish Sotskova).

But else, what i meant is that fed would not send Satoko only if she performs badly, not because she didnt go to worlds this year and no 3 spots anymore.

Was Wakaba ever next big thing? The only recollection I have is she wasn't consistent as a junior and when expected to fight for gold, she was fighting for bronze.
Marin is always in the hunt for gold. Plus Marin has the look and the skating skills that is outstanding compare to her peers.

If mai is proving to be as consistent as Satoko, Satoko is more in trouble than Marin.

 

[FlattFan]

So was Takahito Mura in the 2013-2014 season but then Tatsuki Machida showed up out of nowhere and was selected over Mura, Kozuka and Oda. Nothing is set in stone for anyone.

What the hell are you talking about?
2012-13 and 2013-14, machida did much better than takahito internationally. Made GPF both year. He didn't just show up out of nowhere.

If you think some random girl can show up out of no where and grab a spot, you are delusional. Of those two spots, I don't see anyone but Marin, mai, kaori, and Satoko.

 

[ioanna]

Was Wakaba ever next big thing? The only recollection I have is she wasn't consistent as a junior and when expected to fight for gold, she was fighting for bronze.

Your recollection is wrong.

1st junior season 2014-2015: gold (Asian Trophy), gold (JGP Germany), silver (JGP Czech Republic), bronze (GPF), gold (Jr Nationals), bronze (Sr Nationals), bronze (Jr Worlds)
2nd junior season 2015-2016 she had a back injury: 5th (JGP Austria), silver (JGP Croatia), gold (Jr Nationals), silver (Sr Nationals), bronze (Jr Worlds)

If that's not consistent I don't know what it is. In her first junior season she was going against Evgenia Medvedeva and Serafima Sakhanovich. That's like Marin going against Alina Zagitova and healthy Polina Tsurskaya. You have to take some circumstances into consideration.

What the hell are you talking about?
2012-13 and 2013-14, machida did much better than takahito internationally. Made GPF both year. He didn't just show up out of nowhere.

If you think some random girl can show up out of no where and grab a spot, you are delusional. Of those two spots, I don't see anyone but Marin, mai, kaori, and Satoko.

You're missing the point but that's fine.

 

[Bluediamonds09]

Was Wakaba ever next big thing? The only recollection I have is she wasn't consistent as a junior and when expected to fight for gold, she was fighting for bronze.
Marin is always in the hunt for gold. Plus Marin has the look and the skating skills that is outstanding compare to her peers.

If mai is proving to be as consistent as Satoko, Satoko is more in trouble than Marin.

Doesn't matter that Marin has good skating skills. Lots of skaters get high marks in PCS by having awful skating skills.

As for satoko, I think she's in trouble only because her jumps are tiny. The world stage doesn't judge her extremely high. She'll score lower than a clean Kaetlyn, a clean Gracie, a clean Gabby, a clean Zagitova......so, with this in mind, will the Japanese federation want to send her to the Olympic Games? Especially with all the other talent going senior this coming season?

 

[sarahjoanne]

I think it really depends on who JSF wants to support at this point in time, who they will give high PCS to in competitions, especially those within Japan. This is especially important in this era of skating where PCS is so important because all the ladies are rather stagnant technically so PCS is really the only difference. They cannot afford to score their skaters lower in PCS than international judges anymore...

 

[sarahjoanne]

But really, ultimately I think that while Satoko/Mai is their best hope for a medal, Marin is their best and only hope for a Gold medal, she has that extra something that comes so naturally to her and not the rest that will possibly lead to an olympic moment, but then again it also depends on how her start to the season is.

 

[FlattFan]

Your recollection is wrong.

1st junior season 2014-2015: gold (Asian Trophy), gold (JGP Germany), silver (JGP Czech Republic), bronze (GPF), gold (Jr Nationals), bronze (Sr Nationals), bronze (Jr Worlds)
2nd junior season 2015-2016 she had a back injury: 5th (JGP Austria), silver (JGP Croatia), gold (Jr Nationals), silver (Sr Nationals), bronze (Jr Worlds)

If that's not consistent I don't know what it is. In her first junior season she was going against Evgenia Medvedeva and Serafima Sakhanovich. That's like Marin going against Alina Zagitova and healthy Polina Tsurskaya. You have to take some circumstances into consideration.



You're missing the point but that's fine.

Nope. Marin would have beaten both girls back then. Both had issues with lutzes, and both were new comers. Serafima was scoring in the low 60s. No no no.
Medvedeva in her junior season was not good. The lutz was a huge flutz and she got called all the time.

Marin going against Alina is much more impressive than Wakaba. You are really confused. If Wakaba was going against Medvedeva now, then that is a different story. Understand?

 

[largeman]

Nope. Marin would have beaten both girls back then. Both had issues with lutzes, and both were new comers. Serafima was scoring in the low 60s. No no no.
Medvedeva in her junior season was not good. The lutz was a huge flutz and she got called all the time.

Come on, they were not newcomers. They were silver and bronze medalists at Worlds and JGP the previous season. They both had nerves of steel and were able to hang on to jumps like these without falling down: https://youtu.be/nBgRdIbrVIg?t=60s (and judges gave her just -1 GOE) Flutz or not, the 2014 Zhenya would definitely have been tough competition for Marin, just because of her consistency and comparable PCS (I imagine).

Marin going against Alina is much more impressive than Wakaba. You are really confused. If Wakaba was going against Medvedeva now, then that is a different story. Understand?

I often agree with your points.. but your tone is always so harsh

 

[Ares]

Even with Mao out of the picture, two slots are just not enough. I wonder how the 'older' generation of Kanako and Rika will perform (Or Yuka Nagai, what about her? Haruka Imai....what happened?) I don't think Kanako will have a chance and it seems like Rika has been abandoned by the judges for real. This was a season to forget. Probably her wish was also to go to the Olympics as she's never been. Kanako at least went to Sochi.

Haruka is my sentimental favourite but she's not factor since 2015. I have a soft spot for her skating and her 3Sal-3Toe combo when on is a beauty but that's how it is. I am just glad that she keeps skating and hopefully she will continue in competition for the next season at least. Sure you have stories like Akiko Suzuki once in a while but for one Kanako there's many, many more who quit earlier or 20 skaters like Haruka Imai. Japan has so much depth & Imai is likely just not talented enough. But yes, she was very promising in juniors, medalled in Japanese Junior Championships etc.

As for Kanako ... if only she could stop popping her jumps!

 

[mary01]

Doesn't matter that Marin has good skating skills. Lots of skaters get high marks in PCS by having awful skating skills.

As for satoko, I think she's in trouble only because her jumps are tiny. The world stage doesn't judge her extremely high. She'll score lower than a clean Kaetlyn, a clean Gracie, a clean Gabby, a clean Zagitova......so, with this in mind, will the Japanese federation want to send her to the Olympic Games? Especially with all the other talent going senior this coming season?

So true, the first one that comes to my mind is Ashley wagner!

 

[moriel]

Doesn't matter that Marin has good skating skills. Lots of skaters get high marks in PCS by having awful skating skills.

As for satoko, I think she's in trouble only because her jumps are tiny. The world stage doesn't judge her extremely high. She'll score lower than a clean Kaetlyn, a clean Gracie, a clean Gabby, a clean Zagitova......so, with this in mind, will the Japanese federation want to send her to the Olympic Games? Especially with all the other talent going senior this coming season?

But then... A clean Mai will score less than all the ladies who you listed too.
Same for all japanese ladies actually, they will lose to a clean Kaetlyn, clean Gracie, clean Zagitova, clean Anna Pogo.

 

[mcq]

Realistically speaking, I think 5 ladies have equal chances in making the olympic team :

- Satoko Miyahara : Definitely the favorite to make it. However, I am not so sure how much her injury would affect her performance/consistency next season. Hopefully they won't. If she is back on top shape in the beginning of the season, one of the spot is definitely hers. In all honesty, looking at her PB, she is the best shot Japan got to a medal, currently.

Mai Mihara : The closest the Japanese have currently to a skater that resembles Miyahara's consistency (and her TES is pretty good, better jumper too). However her PCS is pretty abysmal (63 regardless of a clean skate at worlds). Nevertheless, she has a pretty good senior debut; medaled in GP, WON 4CC, and finishing 5th in her first world - it is really not a shabby achievement at all. If she manages to maintain her level of consistency, I think her PCS will rise to high 60s in the next season. Also, with continuous good showing, she could get the momentum (Miyahara's early PCS was low too but it gradually rises, imo, partially because of how consistent she is).

Wakaba Higuchi : She has the package, I actually thought she would do better in her senior debut season, but there were injuries and others. Quite a shame because she had a good momentum by TDF. She was never the most consistent skater and her less-than-stellar showing at 4CC and Worlds + the marks she got there gave me the impression that the judges are not so into her. Frankly, she kind of need to skate well consistently next season to ride the wave. She virtually has the same PCS as Mai at worlds (63, but with a pop and fall, so her PCS potential is actually bigger than Mai). I am not sure how her plan is with the 3A.

Marin Honda : I think this might be the skater that JSF wants to be on the team. She received 62 PCS in junior worlds (the highest in the field) and pretty high TES (over 70) even without Chsq, the judges clearly like her and with good senior showing she can make it to high 60s low 70s in PCS. Her scoring potential at senior would be >70 in SP and up to 140 in FS. However, she is not the most consistent skater out there, though she seems to always peak at the right time. Not-so-stellar showing at her early GPs might make the momentum not working on her favor, but she got the goods. The question with her is always whether she will be able to deliver or not. If she's clean and delivers quite consistently, I'd say it would be her over Mai, Kaori or Wakaba.

Kaori Sakamoto : Great jumper and she also has good SS. She actually received pretty good PCS at junior worlds too, so the judges are somewhat in her favor, and she is relatively more consistent than both Marin and Wakaba. I think she could be the dark horse that could make the team and make a splash at her senior debut season if the others perform sub-par and she delivers well constantly. No one would have guessed Mai would do better than Wakaba by the time senior season started, so anything could happen.

Good luck to all the ladies and stay healthy

 

[christinaskater]

Realistically speaking, I think 5 ladies have equal chances in making the olympic team :

- Satoko Miyahara : Definitely the favorite to make it. However, I am not so sure how much her injury would affect her performance/consistency next season. Hopefully they won't. If she is back on top shape in the beginning of the season, one of the spot is definitely hers. In all honesty, looking at her PB, she is the best shot Japan got to a medal, currently.

Mai Mihara : The closest the Japanese have currently to a skater that resembles Miyahara's consistency (and her TES is pretty good, better jumper too). However her PCS is pretty abysmal (63 regardless of a clean skate at worlds). Nevertheless, she has a pretty good senior debut; medaled in GP, WON 4CC, and finishing 5th in her first world - it is really not a shabby achievement at all. If she manages to maintain her level of consistency, I think her PCS will rise to high 60s in the next season. Also, with continuous good showing, she could get the momentum (Miyahara's early PCS was low too but it gradually rises, imo, partially because of how consistent she is).

Wakaba Higuchi : She has the package, I actually thought she would do better in her senior debut season, but there were injuries and others. Quite a shame because she had a good momentum by TDF. She was never the most consistent skater and her less-than-stellar showing at 4CC and Worlds + the marks she got there gave me the impression that the judges are not so into her. Frankly, she kind of need to skate well consistently next season to ride the wave. She virtually has the same PCS as Mai at worlds (63, but with a pop and fall, so her PCS potential is actually bigger than Mai). I am not sure how her plan is with the 3A.

Marin Honda : I think this might be the skater that JSF wants to be on the team. She received 62 PCS in junior worlds (the highest in the field) and pretty high TES (over 70) even without Chsq, the judges clearly like her and with good senior showing she can make it to high 60s low 70s in PCS. Her scoring potential at senior would be >70 in SP and up to 140 in FS. However, she is not the most consistent skater out there, though she seems to always peak at the right time. Not-so-stellar showing at her early GPs might make the momentum not working on her favor, but she got the goods. The question with her is always whether she will be able to deliver or not. If she's clean and delivers quite consistently, I'd say it would be her over Mai, Kaori or Wakaba.

Kaori Sakamoto : Great jumper and she also has good SS. She actually received pretty good PCS at junior worlds too, so the judges are somewhat in her favor, and she is relatively more consistent than both Marin and Wakaba. I think she could be the dark horse that could make the team and make a splash at her senior debut season if the others perform sub-par and she delivers well constantly. No one would have guessed Mai would do better than Wakaba by the time senior season started, so anything could happen.

Good luck to all the ladies and stay healthy

Love it!

I hope Satoko and Marin make it!
Don't count out Rika Kihara and her triple Axel

 

[mcq]

Love it!

I hope Satoko and Marin make it!
Don't count out Rika Kihara and her triple Axel

Rika is not age-eligible, sadly. I would have put her in the mix had she is
But we can still see her on the junior circuit, heard she is going to do 2 3As on her FS.

 

[hippomoomin]

It will be exciting for Japanese ladies because none of the top ladies is a lock. The unpredictability creates excitement.
Marin is only 15, and she will continue to grow next year. It night be her best year to have the best combination of jumping ability (still light) and artistry (not too juniorish). Mai should have better programs to be competitive. I think her team didn't really expect her to do so well in her first junior year, and didn't package her with mature-enough programs. If Satoko is no longer injured, it would be fair if she is on the team. She is still the best Japanese lady after Sochi. Her tiny jumps did not prevent her from reaching GPF silver or World Silver. But wait, there is Kaori.
Right now I count Rika and Wakaba out.

 

[ioanna]

Satoko may not benefit from the same amount of popularity Marin is enjoying but fellow senior skaters are talking about her as if the possibility of her not going to the Olympics doesn't exist.

Daisuke Takahashi: "Among the ladies, Miyahara is the toughest. Even if she has a late start (due to injury), she has the strength and ability to make a strong come back."

Nobunari Oda: "I think that if it's Satoko, she can use the special atmosphere of the Olympics in her favor and skate wonderful programs. I would love to see her smile at the Olympics".

People often forget how strong she is mentally. I can't think of any other Japanese lady with nerves of steel like her. Every time she had trouble she got up and came through. If you take a look on the first page of her fan thread you will notice that ever since the 2014-2015 season she has never placed off the podium except once at 2016 Worlds (where she was 3rd in the free). If she weren't severely injured, she would have been unstoppable. Hip injuries have derailed and eventually ended skaters' careers in the past. She didn't deserve such a thing and as a fan I am very worried about the repercussions. I also feel uncomfortable with the way she was pushed to practice for Worlds; that may have worsened her condition. Mie Hamada has all my respect for stopping that nonsense, because I'm pretty sure Satoko would have crawled to Worlds if she could. She will practically start from zero next season so I hope she gets a lot of encouragement and support.

I suspect JSF would want Marin and Satoko to go. Marin already has the PCS and the GOEs ready for her to become a top senior - all she has to do is to try and be as consistent as possible. Satoko doesn't have the PCS and the GOEs guaranteed; she has to earn them. Consistency has always been a must to prove herself to the judges time and time again.

 

[breadstal]

I would love Marin, Satoko and Mai to go

 

[beki]

Satoko may not benefit from the same amount of popularity Marin is enjoying but fellow senior skaters are talking about her as if the possibility of her not going to the Olympics doesn't exist.

Daisuke Takahashi: "Among the ladies, Miyahara is the toughest. Even if she has a late start (due to injury), she has the strength and ability to make a strong come back."

Nobunari Oda: "I think that if it's Satoko, she can use the special atmosphere of the Olympics in her favor and skate wonderful programs. I would love to see her smile at the Olympics".

People often forget how strong she is mentally. I can't think of any other Japanese lady with nerves of steel like her. Every time she had trouble she got up and came through. If you take a look on the first page of her fan thread you will notice that ever since the 2014-2015 season she has never placed off the podium except once at 2016 Worlds (where she was 3rd in the free). If she weren't severely injured, she would have been unstoppable. Hip injuries have derailed and eventually ended skaters' careers in the past. She didn't deserve such a thing and as a fan I am very worried about the repercussions. I also feel uncomfortable with the way she was pushed to practice for Worlds; that may have worsened her condition. Mie Hamada has all my respect for stopping that nonsense, because I'm pretty sure Satoko would have crawled to Worlds if she could. She will practically start from zero next season so I hope she gets a lot of encouragement and support.

I suspect JSF would want Marin and Satoko to go. Marin already has the PCS and the GOEs ready for her to become a top senior - all she has to do is to try and be as consistent as possible. Satoko doesn't have the PCS and the GOEs guaranteed; she has to earn them. Consistency has always been a must to prove herself to the judges time and time again.

It's hard to name the biggest disappointment of Worlds, but Satoko's withdrawal due to injury is way up there for me. Hopefully she will keep her free for next year. It's perfect for the Olympics, and she can concentrate on recovery instead of starting from scratch with a new program. I liked the short also, but it wasn't as great, so maybe she will go for something new there.

Her injury is scary, but I'm choosing to think positively until I hear more. Unfortunately, it has to be serious, or she would have crawled to Worlds like you said. Heroic Tiny Queen

 

[TerpsichoreFS]

And there I am, I fell in love with both Mai and Wakaba at worlds and now there's a good chance neither will go to the Olympics.

 

[ioanna]

And there I am, I fell in love with both Mai and Wakaba at worlds and now there's a good chance neither will go to the Olympics.

There's an equal chance Satoko may not be able to go back to the way she was and Marin not dealing with the pressure. I think these four skaters have equal chance right now, regardless of who journalists or federation people would prefer.