2016-2017 Grand Prix selections

[wishonastar]

Alex Shibutani, Madison Hubbell and Zak Donohue were all born in 1991, which would make them 31 in 2022. I doubt any of them would consider sticking around for another Olympic cycle. Alex Shibutani has asthma, which has made competition difficult for him at times, so I don't think he would continue for even one season past 2018, regardless of Maia's youth. And Madison Hubbell has had to have hip surgery, so she may not want to further stress her body beyond 2018.

Maybe you could get Maia and Zach to go a cycle together!

 

[Ice Dance]

I don't think it matters. Within five years, a team like McNamara & Carpenter can grow, gain power, and power their way up the ranks. If they have to do that by fighting their way through the Parsons, Hawayek & Baker, Cannuscio & McManus, and a couple American dance teams currently at the top of the World, then that's what it's going to take. It's a matter of continuing to grow and staying together through all the obstacles, injuries, losses (especially those really fun ones to younger teams coming up after them), coaching changes, the whole shebang. All the things that make a team stronger. How good are you going to have to be to stand on the U.S. ice dance podium in 2022? They ought to know. They were standing on top the Junior one this year and the two teams right below them finished 2nd & 4th at Junior Worlds.

 

[tulosai]

Alex Shibutani, Madison Hubbell and Zak Donohue were all born in 1991, which would make them 31 in 2022. I doubt any of them would consider sticking around for another Olympic cycle. Alex Shibutani has asthma, which has made competition difficult for him at times, so I don't think he would continue for even one season past 2018, regardless of Maia's youth. And Madison Hubbell has had to have hip surgery, so she may not want to further stress her body beyond 2018.

You are right my math was slightly wrong but the difference between 30 and 31 isn't anything to change my opinion- it's still an age at which an ice dancer, if they so choose, could very well be ice dancing, again barring injury... it is the only skating discipline where it is extremely common to peak late. I will admit 31 (or 30 for that matter) is on the later side of late even for a dancer, but it isn't like these are single skaters, it definitely is entirely possible to be dancing at that age, and I could name several who have. Unlike other disciplines, moreover, it's not uncommon for teams not to even really hit their stride till their mid 20's.

As for the health issues you mention, I suppose that's up to the skaters, who are in a way better position than you or I to know the impact these conditions really have on them on average, as well as the impact the conditions do or do not have on their will to compete. I don't see how anyone, myself included, could claim to have any idea whether asthma or a former hip injury impacts an individual's motivation to continue competing in general.

To be clear, I'm not saying these teams will continue beyond 2018 or that they should... as I initially said I think this will depend partly on the results in 2018 and of course on what the couples want to do. I am just saying that they could continue, and I don't assume like some people seem to that they won't. It's all very well to be like Alex's asthma bothers him he won't continue but unless you know Alex or have read an interview with him saying that, this is just speculation or possibly even wishful thinking.

Finally, I don't disagree with Ice Dance's idea that this doesn't necessarily mean McN and C are doomed anyway- they certainly can muscle their way through, it's hard but other teams have done it in the past and certainly they are talented. I am just saying that I personally wouldn't count on a huge wave of 2018 retirements making it easier for them to do so- if they are indeed waiting in some way under the assumption that the top teams are all or mostly going to retire, they could very well be mistaken in this.

 

[Blades of Passion]

I'm not sure why McNamara & Carpenter wouldn't be able to make the 2018 Olympic team if they progressed enough from now until then. We've seen with the Shibs, Virtue/Moir, Davis/White, and Papadakis/Cizeron how quickly teams in modern ice dance have been able to become competitive. Getting experience in Seniors this year seems like it would give them the better chance of making the 2018 Olympics. I think it's a big mistake to stay Junior.

 

[cathlen]

McNamara/Carpenter may still do Senior B's and Senior Nationals, along with JGP and JWC. They wouldn't be the first Ice Dance Team to compete at both levels at the same time. Between last JGP and JGPF there is a lot of time for them to do that. So they can get some senior experience. The question is if they want to? I think they should, it would make transition to fully seniors easier for them. Not to mention additional ranking points. (Junior international competitions doesn't count IIRc, only JGP & JWC). Same goes for Parsons of course.

 

[cheerknithanson]

I'm not sure why McNamara & Carpenter wouldn't be able to make the 2018 Olympic team if they progressed enough from now until then. We've seen with the Shibs, Virtue/Moir, Davis/White, and Papadakis/Cizeron how quickly teams in modern ice dance have been able to become competitive. Getting experience in Seniors this year seems like it would give them the better chance of making the 2018 Olympics. I think it's a big mistake to stay Junior.

The problem is that we have three already extremely good dance teams. Chock/Bates, the ShibSibs, and Hubbell/Donohue. And those are the 3 most likely to make the Olympic team in 2018 unless something happens. If something does happen to one of the teams (Which I hope not), then it's certainly possible for them to go. They definitely show the confidence, the technique, and maturity as some senior level teams already competing at the international level. So it'll be interesting how that'll hold up if they go to seniors. Now odds are, they're not going to medal if they go to the 2018 Olympics. But that's okay cause they're both still very young as Lorraine is only 17 and Quinn is only 20 as of now and have time for 2022. Which by then, there's a good possibility they can medal (If the current top-level teams retire after 2018 Worlds, which is high probable for a lot of those teams).

 

[chuckm]

M/C can't compete at Senior Bs this year because the Junior SD is different from the Senior SD. Practicing two different SDs would make them less proficient at both, so that's not an option.

 

[Ice Dance]

I'm not sure why McNamara & Carpenter wouldn't be able to make the 2018 Olympic team if they progressed enough from now until then. We've seen with the Shibs, Virtue/Moir, Davis/White, and Papadakis/Cizeron how quickly teams in modern ice dance have been able to become competitive.

All teams which walked into seniors when there was an open spot or two on their national teams, and in V&M and D&W's case a brand new scoring system that helped oust the older athletes who had not been training the new requirements from a young age. As cheerknithanson says, it's those 2nd, 3rd, & 6th placements at Worlds that make the difference. These are three of the best ice dance teams in the World, athletes who were right where McNamara & Carpenter are now back in 2008, 2009, 2010. Athletes who won World Junior gold medals, World junior medalists, JGPF winners, JGPF medalists, JGP event winners, JGP medalists--totally dominated the JGP scene back in 2009. It's taken these athletes roughly six seasons to get where they are today. Chances are it's going to take McNamara & Carpenter or anyone more than two seasons to crack that.

 

[Mrs. P]

Timing is so key with Ice Dance. Maia and Alex Shibutani were about McNamara and Carpenter's age (16 and 20) when they entered the senior circuit. They were able to capitalize on 1.) Belbin and Agosto retiring (also Navarro/Bommentre, who finished 4th at 2010 Nationals). 2.) Samuleson and Bates being out due to injury (and ultimately spiting) and 3.) Chock/Zuerlin and the Hubbells passing their peak.

In 2010 Olympics Team USA were 2nd, 4th and 11th.

 

[Blades of Passion]

How did V/M and D/W train the new scoring system any earlier than the other teams? It didn't come out at the beginning of their development, it came out just 2-3 years before they were ranking high in the World in 2007. Shibutanis were 3rd in the World their first year of Seniors. Papadakis/Cizeron were World Champions 2 years after going Senior.

It doesn't really matter if the current U.S. teams were 2nd, 3rd, 6th at Worlds last season. Things change and none of them deserve to just be "given" an Olympic spot. McNamara/Carpenter, Parsons/Parsons, or any team with great talent, could potentially surpass them all if they get the experience they need and have the burning desire to improve and win. I don't see the point in just anointing the current top 3.

 

[noidont]

For some reason M/C and the Parsons really reminiscent of Chock/Zuerlein and the Hubbells.

 

[Ice Dance]

How did V/M and D/W train the new scoring system any earlier than the other teams? It didn't come out at the beginning of their development, it came out just 2-3 years before they were ranking high in the World in 2007.

No, the new required elements began coming out in dance much earlier. Dance spins were introduced around 2001, I believe. Side by side footwork sequences--which became a tremendous separator were in play then as well. Then the twizzle sequences. It was a perfect storm and it changed the entire direction of the sport. It benefited young senior teams like Belbin & Agosto first. They were able to adapt more easily than many. But when the next generation came up, having trained those elements from earlier on, it had a tremendous impact. V&M and D&W were tremendous athletes & competitors, but it was a very unusual time in ice dance. Torino 2006 was only the most obvious disaster for the teams tackling the new requirements. You could see the technical push much earlier. Grishuk & Platov retired and their emphasis on technical difficulty began being written into the rulebooks.

Papadakis & Cizeron did win Worlds in their second season. It's incredible. But they are one team in the entire history of the sport. They were fifteenth at their first Worlds. They would not have made today's U.S. team that season. Nor would they have received a host spot at Skate America. The U.S. sent three teams to SA that had already finished in the top 10 at Worlds. It's no accident that P&C moved up the year after Pechalat & Bourzat retired. An amazing feat--no question. But would they have done it if they had only skated one GP event the year before? No Europeans. No Worlds.

Yes, the Shibs won bronze in 2011. But again. Would they have been given that chance today? Would they have gotten in at Skate America in 2012 against the field we have in the U.S. right now? Or a berth at NHK? Coming off a 4th place finish at Junior Worlds. Highly unlikely. They could well have gone to Cup of Russia instead, just like Pogrebinsky & Benoit are doing now. And who do you think is getting that TBA at Skate America? P&B are ranked higher on the SB list, but my money is on Cannuscio & McManus unless C&M get a replacement spot for another team internationally.

Teams have to have the opportunities for experience. M&C will make their own opportunities. They will. I wanted McNamara & Carpenter to move up this season because I believe they've accomplished everything on the junior circuit & they had a good shot at Hawayek & Baker this season. But pretending the field M&C face at home today is the same as the teams you listed is folly. There is much more movement now than there has ever been in the history of ice dance. There are more opportunities to skate internationally. And there are more young teams making it to the top. All of these should be celebrated. But no team takes the same path to the top. In the entire history of ice dance, only two Junior World Champion teams have ever gone on to win senior Worlds. If there was a clear way to get there, everyone would take it!

 

[Mango]

M/C can't compete at Senior Bs this year because the Junior SD is different from the Senior SD. Practicing two different SDs would make them less proficient at both, so that's not an option.

Hey Chuck. You are speaking as if you've got insider info. Please share what else you know.

 

[TMC]

Nazarova/Nikitin did both Sr and Jr SDs in 2015, so it's not unheard of.

 

[cathlen]

M/C can't compete at Senior Bs this year because the Junior SD is different from the Senior SD. Practicing two different SDs would make them less proficient at both, so that's not an option.

Do you read what excatly did I write? Every year SD is different for seniors and juniors. That's no news That doesn't prevent some teams from competing on both levels. So it is possible to compete at both, if the team wants to get some senior expierience. Of course it is harder! I did not say anything about it being easy. And yes, it could be less proficient, but their current level should be enough to win most competitions anyway and they would gain form competing in Senior B's for sure. If anything, like I said before, ranking points. In 2014/15 season Kaliszek/Spodyriev and Nazarova/Nikitin competed at both levels. Both couples had the best place in career in Junior World Championships. Competing in seniors didn't made them worse in juniors at all. And personally, I think it did a lot of good for Polish couple. They have a steady progress in last 2 years.

 

[grotesm1]

Nazarova/Nikitin did both Sr and Jr SDs in 2015, so it's not unheard of.

Even if M/C wanted to compete at both the Junior and Senior level this year, they couldn't do it. One of the new rules passed by the ISU Congress in June is that if you do a Junior ISU event, you can't do a Senior ISU event during the same season or vice versa (some are calling it the Polina Edmunds rule because she did the Junior Grand Prix and then got named to the Olympic team). Under the new rule, skaters pretty much have to declare themselves Juniors or Seniors and stick with that through the rest of the season, at least at ISU events.

M/C could do Seniors at Nationals but there doesn't seem to be much point to doing that if they can't complete at a Senior ISU event.

 

[grotesm1]

The Cup of Russia Grand Prix event in November may be in danger.

The International Olympic Committee (IOC) has issued an interim order, asking that its winter sports governing bodies “freeze their preparation for major events in Russia” and find host cities in other countries, due the Russian doping scandal. The order includes moving the Cup of Russia Grand Prix event scheduled for November to another country.

The ISU is in a tough spot due to this order from the IOC. The Russian Skating Federation is a major player in the ISU and would be more than unhappy if their Grand Prix event was moved to another country. It also doesn’t give the ISU a lot of time to find a new host. At the same time, the ISU doesn’t want to defy the IOC. Failure to comply with the order could result in some backlash against the figure skating events at the 2018 Olympics, which is the ISU’s biggest showcase and moneymaker for the sport.

The Court of Sports Arbitration is due to issue a ruling on the Russian ban from the Rio Olympics sometime this week. My guess is that the ISU will wait for the ruling to come down and study its implications before deciding whether the Cup of Russia Grand Prix event will go on as scheduled.

 

[StitchMonkey]

Even if M/C wanted to compete at both the Junior and Senior level this year, they couldn't do it. One of the new rules passed by the ISU Congress in June is that if you do a Junior ISU event, you can't do a Senior ISU event during the same season or vice versa (some are calling it the Polina Edmunds rule because she did the Junior Grand Prix and then got named to the Olympic team). Under the new rule, skaters pretty much have to declare themselves Juniors or Seniors and stick with that through the rest of the season, at least at ISU events.

M/C could do Seniors at Nationals but there doesn't seem to be much point to doing that if they can't complete at a Senior ISU event.

not sure i had seen this rule change... i have seen talk that minimums now have to be achieved at senior events for senior events and junior events for junior... but not that it was one or the other flat out.

I think I am ok with this rule... but it does conflict with the twisted way the USA does its junior programs - i.e. sending the top seniors from nationals. It would be nice if skaters on the JGP could do a senior B as well... but I also support making a more clear distinction of junior vs seniors.

 

[Skye]

One of the new rules passed by the ISU Congress in June is that if you do a Junior ISU event, you can't do a Senior ISU event during the same season or vice versa (some are calling it the Polina Edmunds rule because she did the Junior Grand Prix and then got named to the Olympic team). Under the new rule, skaters pretty much have to declare themselves Juniors or Seniors and stick with that through the rest of the season, at least at ISU events.

Source? I haven't followed the ISU Congress closely, but this is the first time I have heard of such a ridiculous new rule.

 

[noskates]

Ruling on the Russian ban is supposed to be announced before Saturday. Talk about far-reaching ramifications if it happens.