2017-18 State of U.S. Men's Figure Skating

[concorde]

We will never know what really happened regarding the selection process.

He could have skated at both, he just needed the minumums for both.

Posters here said he did not get selected for Senior Worlds because he did not have the Senior minimums at the time the selections were made. Between the time he got 2nd at Nationals as a Senior and Worlds, my guess is he could have earned them if he was given the chance.

 

[StitchMonkey]

He did earn the minimums at Bavarian Open.

It is worth remembering that senior and junior programs are different lengths. So sending him to both would be he would have had to split his training time between two versions of each program. They also were only a week apart.

The decision that was made resulted in TeamUSA earning the junior worlds men's title and three spots to the Olympics... so i am pretty happy with the decision. We don't know how Vincent would have done at worlds and we don't know how he would have done at junior world with the added pressure of senior worlds/split practice time. As it stands Jason, Nathan and Vincent all have three spots on the GP and all are being taken seriously by the media, and presumably the powers that be, as Olympic contenders. This is an everyone wins situation to me.

 

[Ice Dance]

So, did Vincent win the SP?

He won by 13 points.

Keegan Messing was second with 4T3T, 3A, 3Lz.

USFSA chose to send Jason to Worlds and put Vincent as first alternate. Yes, he could have done both junior & senior worlds. It was a judgment call. At the time the team was named, Vincent had yet to do the 4Lz or 4F, get international credit for his 4S, or complete a senior international competition. His summer & JGP season had been messy (more messy than the season before), and he didn't yet have the senior minimum TES.

It's worked out fine. Jason & Nathan earned the three spots. Vincent is now landing the lutz & flip. He now has the senior minimum TES. And he has international credit for rotating the 4lz and 4sal. Like Nathan and Jason, he is a good competitor with a lot of gold & silver in his junior resume.

 

[mrrice]

He won by 13 points.

Keegan Messing was second with 4T3T, 3A, 3Lz.

USFSA chose to send Jason to Worlds and put Vincent as first alternate. Yes, he could have done both junior & senior worlds. It was a judgment call. At the time the team was named, Vincent had yet to do the 4Lz or 4F, get international credit for his 4S, or complete a senior international competition. His summer & JGP season had been messy (more messy than the season before), and he didn't yet have the senior minimum TES.

It's worked out fine. Jason & Nathan earned the three spots. Vincent is now landing the lutz & flip. He now has the senior minimum TES. And he has international credit for rotating the 4lz and 4sal. Like Nathan and Jason, he is a good competitor with a lot of gold & silver in his junior resume.

Such a crowded and deep field of men for this next season.....I truly have no idea who will make the team.

 

[Mrs. P]

He won by 13 points.

Keegan Messing was second with 4T3T, 3A, 3Lz.

USFSA chose to send Jason to Worlds and put Vincent as first alternate. Yes, he could have done both junior & senior worlds. It was a judgment call. At the time the team was named, Vincent had yet to do the 4Lz or 4F, get international credit for his 4S, or complete a senior international competition. His summer & JGP season had been messy (more messy than the season before), and he didn't yet have the senior minimum TES.

It's worked out fine. Jason & Nathan earned the three spots. Vincent is now landing the lutz & flip. He now has the senior minimum TES. And he has international credit for rotating the 4lz and 4sal. Like Nathan and Jason, he is a good competitor with a lot of gold & silver in his junior resume.

Yeah, I'd rather not rehash that debate. I think that Vincent has ample time to make a positive impression on the GP. I'd be careful to say that anyone has anything locked up. It's a long haul, and what ultimately matters is GP/Nationals. It's going to be a real horse race now until then. However, if Vincent continues to hit the quads, yes his odds will rise dramatically, as it did for Nathan last season.

I guess if were to do odds TODAY based on the last six months or so, I'd say
Nathan 90 percent
Vincent 70 percent (his SP alone today raised his odds by like 10-15 percentage points)
Jason 55 percent
Adam 50 percent
Ross/Josh/Max 45 percent
Grant/Tim/Alex 40 percent
Sean/Jordan/Andrew/Alexei 35 percent

The odds can dramatically change. Josh is a huge question mark. I think his odds are high considering that he has been out for two seasons, but then again, he's been out two seasons. Putting him at 45 percent seems reasonable.

 

[el henry]

I really like the chart, @Mrs P., but what good is the Internet without a friendly "discussion"

On what planet is Ross 5 percent ahead of "Mr. Pewter", my man Grant? :noshake:

 

[Mrs. P]

I really like the chart, @Mrs P., but what good is the Internet without a friendly "discussion"

On what planet is Ross 5 percent ahead of "Mr. Pewter", my man Grant? :noshake:

Ross has finished 5th behind Grant both times, yes, but he finished ahead of Grant after the SP both times but only bombed the FS. Ross also has slightly more international hardware than Grant does.

I'm not against moving Grant up to the 45 percent tier to be honest.

That said, you're welcome to make your own odds chart -- I'm no bookie nor will I be held responsible for gambling losses.

ETA: Okay you've convinced me. I moved Grant up and also moved Max up (I've added Why to my odds)

Nathan 90 percent - (Reigning U.S. champ, Reigning 4CC Champ, GPF medalist)
Vincent 70 percent (Lots of quads, his SP alone today raised his odds by like 10-15 percentage points -- also Reigning Jr. World champ; Reigning U.S. Silver medalist)
Jason 55 percent - (3/3 on national podium since enter seniors internationally, including a national champion; top 10 finishes at all three major championship events (Olympics/Worlds 2015/Worlds 2017)
Adam/Max 50 percent - (GPF berth for adam, national champ. for both, several GP medals)
Ross/Josh/Grant 45 percent (National medalists, Josh would be higher, but he had a 2-year layoff)
Tim/Alex J. 40 percent (Solid top 7 placements at recent nationals)
Sean/Jordan/Andrew/Alexei 35 percent

 

[karne]

And someone just tweeted Vincent for 97+ in his Skate Detroit program. Here's a vid: https://mobile.twitter.com/magicaleggrolls/status/888464281745928195

Both were fully rotated.

No, they weren't. The video is at the wrong end of the rink to get a good look at the Lutz but if that flip was around I'd be beyond shocked. The hooked landing was super obvious.

I agree that he is the #2 US man now. I still believe it was a bad decision to not send him to Senior Worlds last year.

No, it wasn't. 3 spots should be enough evidence for you.

No, they weren't. The 4F was UR, not sure on the Lz, and the 3A was there about as well.

With you on this one. Makes me look forward to US Nationals a little less, knowing that they'll have some super-marshmallow tech panel...

As a Junior, he probably didn't have a qualifying score, is that right?

Between the time he got 2nd at Nationals as a Senior and Worlds, my guess is he could have earned them if he was given the chance.

He WAS given the chance! And guess what? He was given the chance BEFORE Nationals. He screwed it up and the Vincent-pushers tried to hush it up because it didn't fit their narrative. The USFS absolutely made the right decision. Nathan had been skating as a Senior all season and he couldn't handle his first Senior Worlds. A rookie Senior would have been worse. The three spots were got for the Olympics and perhaps the Vincent-pushers should just be grateful for that!

 

[mrrice]

No, they weren't. The video is at the wrong end of the rink to get a good look at the Lutz but if that flip was around I'd be beyond shocked. The hooked landing was super obvious.



No, it wasn't. 3 spots should be enough evidence for you.



With you on this one. Makes me look forward to US Nationals a little less, knowing that they'll have some super-marshmallow tech panel...





He WAS given the chance! And guess what? He was given the chance BEFORE Nationals. He screwed it up and the Vincent-pushers tried to hush it up because it didn't fit their narrative. The USFS absolutely made the right decision. Nathan had been skating as a Senior all season and he couldn't handle his first Senior Worlds. A rookie Senior would have been worse. The three spots were got for the Olympics and perhaps the Vincent-pushers should just be grateful for that!

I don't know about this last part. For me personally, I didn't have any idea who he was until I saw his "If I risk it all" Program on YouTube. I missed his SP at Nationals and the only reason I went back and watched it was because he beat Max and Jason and I was shocked. He was like Misha Ge when I first saw him...I was looking for someone else and there he was. He, IMO, deserves all the attention he's getting. He skates with Tammy and I imagine he grew up in Ricki's shadow.

 

[shine]

No, they weren't. The video is at the wrong end of the rink to get a good look at the Lutz but if that flip was around I'd be beyond shocked. The hooked landing was super obvious.

Both quads look under to me (and the triple toe looked like a toe axel). He has pretty good height but relatively slow rotations. I haven't seen much of him but most of the quads I've seen him land has a
hooked landing. And I'm kinda afraid that he might chronically under-rotate.

 

[Mrs. P]

Both quads look under to me (and the triple toe looked like a toe axel). He has pretty good height but relatively slow rotations. I haven't seen much of him but most of the quads I've seen him land has a
hooked landing. And I'm kinda afraid that he might chronically under-rotate.

It kind of explains why he had mixed results internationally.

However, I'm impressed by how much a magnifying glass you guys had cause honestly from that particular video I couldn't see much. We'll see how he'll do with an international IJS panel.

 

[mrrice]

Was there a tech caller at this event? He got a big score and that would not have happened if he had 2 footed both of his quads. Look, I've been to live events and you can hear an under rotation or a 2 foot landing. I'm sure the judges would have dinged him if he had either of those infractions.

 

[karne]

Both quads look under to me (and the triple toe looked like a toe axel). He has pretty good height but relatively slow rotations. I haven't seen much of him but most of the quads I've seen him land has a
hooked landing. And I'm kinda afraid that he might chronically under-rotate.

He does. He didn't get a quad called clean internationally until Bavarian - and even there had others called <.

We'll see how he'll do with an international IJS panel.

An international panel won't be the ones calling Nationals, which will have so much influence over who gets picked for the Olympic team.

Was there a tech caller at this event? He got a big score and that would not have happened if he had 2 footed both of his quads. Look, I've been to live events and you can hear an under rotation or a 2 foot landing. I'm sure the judges would have dinged him if he had either of those infractions.

Of course there was a tech caller at this event, you can't run an IJS event without one, duh? 2 foot landing is a GOE issue. The issue we're disputing is the rotation, which has nothing to do with a two-foot landing.

 

[mrrice]

He does. He didn't get a quad called clean internationally until Bavarian - and even there had others called <.



An international panel won't be the ones calling Nationals, which will have so much influence over who gets picked for the Olympic team.



Of course there was a tech caller at this event, you can't run an IJS event without one, duh? 2 foot landing is a GOE issue. The issue we're disputing is the rotation, which has nothing to do with a two-foot landing.

This sentence was cruel and beneath the adult conversation I was trying engage in. I had no idea if there were tech callers at smaller events and that's why I asked the question. We should NEVER put people down for asking questions on this forum. That's what forums are all about. As an older poster, I consider myself to "fairly" knowledgeable on many aspects of the sport and if I didn't know, I was hoping someone else might. I'm not trying to make this into a catfight.

 

[concorde]

Yeah, I'd rather not rehash that debate. I think that Vincent has ample time to make a positive impression on the GP. I'd be careful to say that anyone has anything locked up. It's a long haul, and what ultimately matters is GP/Nationals. It's going to be a real horse race now until then. However, if Vincent continues to hit the quads, yes his odds will rise dramatically, as it did for Nathan last season.

It is interesting that in the Ladies OGM contenders thread, there was a debate while back as to whether Alina is really a gold medal contender since this will be her first season as a Senior. Granted ladies and mens are different and I do not see Zincent as a medel threat, but I do think this same concern applies here.

Yes - the US got 3 spots and we will never know if Nathan/Zincent combo would have done as well at Nathan/Jason, but you cannot disagree that a strong showing at Senior Worlds the year before the Olympics boosts the reputation for any skater. I just don't think going to Junior Worlds provides the same boost and that applies even if a skater wins Junior Worlds.

 

[Mrs. P]

It is interesting that in the Ladies OGM contenders thread, there was a debate while back as to whether Alina is really a gold medal contender since this will be her first season as a Senior. Granted ladies and mens are different and I do not see Zincent as a medel threat, but I do think this same concern applies here.

Yes - the US got 3 spots and we will never know if Nathan/Zincent combo would have done as well at Nathan/Jason, but you cannot disagree that a strong showing at Senior Worlds the year before the Olympics boosts the reputation for any skater. I just don't think going to Junior Worlds provides the same boost and that applies even if a skater wins Junior Worlds.

Well, Evgenia Mevedeva won Worlds after winning Jr. Worlds the year before, fwiw. As I said, I think if Vincent, like Nathan, makes a strong debut in the GP/GPF, then he'll be in contention.

 

[Tavi...]

It is interesting that in the Ladies OGM contenders thread, there was a debate while back as to whether Alina is really a gold medal contender since this will be her first season as a Senior. Granted ladies and mens are different and I do not see Zincent as a medel threat, but I do think this same concern applies here.

Yes - the US got 3 spots and we will never know if Nathan/Zincent combo would have done as well at Nathan/Jason, but you cannot disagree that a strong showing at Senior Worlds the year before the Olympics boosts the reputation for any skater. I just don't think going to Junior Worlds provides the same boost and that applies even if a skater wins Junior Worlds.

You know, i find it a little odd that it's four months after Worlds, and you still can't let go of the fact the Jason was selected for the World Team. What's even funnier is that a 16-year old kid - the alleged victim in your eyes - seems to have a positive, mature outlook and to be dealing with it just fine - far better than you are, in fact.

 

[karne]

but you cannot disagree that a strong showing at Senior Worlds the year before the Olympics boosts the reputation for any skater.

And you cannot disagree that a poor showing at Senior Worlds the year before the Olympics can severely damage the reputation of any skater. Which absolutely could have happened.

 

[Ice Dance]

Judgment call.

It was a judgment call.

You put a barrier up in front of young athletes like Nathan/Vincent/Shoma, and they do whatever they think is necessary to crash through it. I'm quite looking forward to the season.

 

[concorde]

When the placement order is not followed, I think it is fair to question whether or not the right decision was made.

If you are just looking at whether 3 slots were earned, I agree it was the good decision.

But when you look at the growth of the individual skater, it is not always so clear cut. Funding levels and the next year's assignments are based on the previous season's outcomes. When you take away what traditionally is a slot earned by placement at Nationals, those other formulas are thown off kilter. And reputation can also suffer since your Federatuon chose to not support you. Those are my concerns.