I agree about Nathan being a lock. I think it is fairly wide open other than that. Interesting thing to note: I've started tracking scores for just the challenger series and GP events. Right now the top 3 are Nathan, Max, and Jason. Max and Jason are pretty close to each other and roughly 30 pts below Nathan. Also, Vincent 4th and Adam is 5th. They are also very close to each other, but roughly 7pts down from Max and Jason. I'm excited to see how each of them progress through the season. I know the selection committee will be look at a lot more than just what I'm tracking, though.
2017-18 State of U.S. Men's Figure Skating
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I agree about Nathan being a lock. I think it is fairly wide open other than that. Interesting thing to note: I've started tracking scores for just the challenger series and GP events. Right now the top 3 are Nathan, Max, and Jason. Max and Jason are pretty close to each other and roughly 30 pts below Nathan. Also, Vincent 4th and Adam is 5th. They are also very close to each other, but roughly 7pts down from Max and Jason. I'm excited to see how each of them progress through the season. I know the selection committee will be look at a lot more than just what I'm tracking, though.
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I could not agree more about competitive nerve. I do not want a skater who is going to make me hold my breath, not in a good way, throughout their skates.
Nathan undoubtedly has competitive nerve, although sometimes I think that is ascribed to him because he wins and looks serious. I give Nathan more credit than that. I think he is not discouraged by bad skates or missing elements and wills himself to do better. A great attribute to have:agree:
Jason also undoubtedly has the same competitive nerve. I think sometimes Jason's nerves of steel are overlooked because he smiles and is a generally positive individual. But Jason is not discouraged by missing an element, he wills himself to do better, and never lets it interfere with the program.:agree:
I am not addressing any other current seniors not because I feel one way or the other, but just because I'm not addressing them. Instead, I will name an example from years past of lack of competitive nerve. Rohene Ward. The man obviously had artistry to spare, and from what I understand (this was the interregnum and I was not following skating then) physical gifts that would rival any skaters today. And he simply could not put it out there on the ice during a comp. Luckily for us, he puts it out there with other skaters through his choreo:yes:
Nathan undoubtedly has competitive nerve, although sometimes I think that is ascribed to him because he wins and looks serious. I give Nathan more credit than that. I think he is not discouraged by bad skates or missing elements and wills himself to do better. A great attribute to have:agree:
Jason also undoubtedly has the same competitive nerve. I think sometimes Jason's nerves of steel are overlooked because he smiles and is a generally positive individual. But Jason is not discouraged by missing an element, he wills himself to do better, and never lets it interfere with the program.:agree:
I am not addressing any other current seniors not because I feel one way or the other, but just because I'm not addressing them. Instead, I will name an example from years past of lack of competitive nerve. Rohene Ward. The man obviously had artistry to spare, and from what I understand (this was the interregnum and I was not following skating then) physical gifts that would rival any skaters today. And he simply could not put it out there on the ice during a comp. Luckily for us, he puts it out there with other skaters through his choreo:yes:
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- Jan 28, 2013
El, I have to agree with you about Jason.
I'm not a huge fan any more, but I have to admit that he competes very well in big competitions.
His placement won't be the highest on the world level, but neither will he have a meltdown. That has to count for something, I think.
For that reason, even if he doesn't make the Olympic team, he might have a very good shot at the World team, where the every-popular Race for Spots will be back on.
I'm not a huge fan any more, but I have to admit that he competes very well in big competitions.
His placement won't be the highest on the world level, but neither will he have a meltdown. That has to count for something, I think.
For that reason, even if he doesn't make the Olympic team, he might have a very good shot at the World team, where the every-popular Race for Spots will be back on.
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I don't know...I think the Men we send have to be big jumpers. Jason has nerves of steel and beautiful artistry but I still think he needs 2 quads to be a medal threat at the Games and Worlds. If Nathan, Vincent, or Max skate badly at Nationals and Jason brings down the house, I'm fine with that. However, without quads, Jason has NO chance to get near Nathan, Hanyu, Javi, Patrick, Shoma, or Jin.
I agree about Jason as well. I think for Nathan a lot of it is about knowing himself. The fact that Nathan can change up his jumps so much -- or as he basically said last year after Nationals that he can just decide during the performance to do a quad instead of a triple --that means he he very in tune with his body, etc. and knows what he can and can't do in a given moment. I think that is a sign of a really good athlete. Mentally he is focused on the moment and thinks quickly on his feet.
I heard Jason say once that competitions are just another chance to perform for a big audience. And that is a huge part of his competitive nerve --everything is seen in as positive a light as possible. That mind set also helps to keep you in the moment too.
I heard Jason say once that competitions are just another chance to perform for a big audience. And that is a huge part of his competitive nerve --everything is seen in as positive a light as possible. That mind set also helps to keep you in the moment too.
I have this feeling that the Olympic team will only have room for 1 man known for artistry. Which translates to Jason OR Adam, but not both. (of course, it could also be neither of them depending on how the GP season goes.)
There are two separate questions:
1.) Can Jason make the world/Olympic team: History states that yes, he has a good shot. Both Max and Vincent have quads, but their PCS aren't up to par, at least not yet. Let's keep in mind that all three scored about the same in the FS at their respective senior Bs. Both Vincent/Max has a higher scoring ceiling, but if Jason gets those quads (or even just hte quad toe) then he has some potential for scoring growth too.
2.) Can Jason contend for an Olympic medal? No, based on what we've seen, no. But I'd argue that out of his domestic competitors, only Nathan is a medal threat anyway. That could change as the season goes on, but I don't think other than Nathan, that the other men are much more of a threat. And there are THREE spots, so it's not like they all have to be medal contenders anyway.
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Nathan is a definite for the Olympic team, but I really think it is wide open for the other two spots. As Mrs. P mentioned the questions regarding Jason, but I think each of the other top men (aside from Nathan) have their own questions too. Max and Vincent both have scoring potential, but it remains to be seen if they reach that potential. Adam is a bit more solid on his quad, but I feel like it is still a question mark to an extent. And he only has the 1, right? There are others who could still have a break out season and do well. Grant, Ross, etc.
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- Jan 28, 2013
Oh, I don't think Jason is a medal threat either. I don't even think a quad toe will help much at this point.
But I also think he would be a reliable upper-middle-of-the-pack skater at World's - maybe higher if the competition is lightly attended. As we near World's the focus will turn to "spots for next year." For the most part, those discussions bore me, but Jason probably won't melt down. He'll be steady and get a reasonable placement.
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- Jul 9, 2014
So do I. You could see it when he won in Russia. Raf was the one who was freaking out. Nathan's expression was more like..."Step 1 Complete" He seemed satisfied but not overjoyed. I think he really means business this year and if he stays healthy, the skies the limit.
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You know who I feel sorry for right now....Ross Miner. When I saw him do his Casablanca Free Program in 2011, I really thought he'd be the next big thing. He's been close a couple of times but now, he's not on a single list of possible medalists for Nationals. How is he looking?
1. Nathan is a lock at this point. Even if he decides to take a break and skip Nationals all together at this moment, he's going to the Olympics.
2. Vincent should be second. He's the future. USFS will need him in the next few years.
3. One of Max, Jason, Adam. Jason has been to the Olympics. His ceiling is low. I think they should just cut him out of the running at this point. There is no advantage in sending him. Max and Adam are also skaters of year past. Neither has been to the Olympics. I think the better one at Nationals should go.
2. Vincent should be second. He's the future. USFS will need him in the next few years.
3. One of Max, Jason, Adam. Jason has been to the Olympics. His ceiling is low. I think they should just cut him out of the running at this point. There is no advantage in sending him. Max and Adam are also skaters of year past. Neither has been to the Olympics. I think the better one at Nationals should go.
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- Mar 3, 2014
I don't understand; are you saying that no matter where Vincent finishes in Nationals, or in the GP, the USFS should send him to the Olympics anyway? And are you saying that if Jason has a good year on the GP or finishes a convincing third at Nationals, let's say, he be "cut out of the running" because he has already been to the Olympics?
The USFS primary duty is to maximize their chances at the 2018 Olympic games, and to reward the skaters who have earned a slot for those games. Which has yet to be determined.
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- Jul 9, 2014
I agree. Other than Nathan. None of our men should be gifted a spot on the team. When I look at Vincent, he has been the second best skater from Nationals until now. He beat Jason at Nationals and then won the Junior World Title. He has great coaching, he's also in a great environment with Karen Chen and Shotaro Omori as his teammates.
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Shotaro's coaches in 2016-17 were Amy Evidente and Wendy Olson.
Did he return to Team Gambill in recent months?? If so, it would be news to me.
I do agree that Vincent has tons of great training-mates.
When with Gambill: Karen, Sean Rabbitt, Brendan Kerry, Yaro Paniot, ...
When in Colorado Springs: Max, Mirai, Camden, ...
When in Colorado Springs: Max, Mirai, Camden, ...
At Nebelhorn, silver medalist Alex Johnson looked great :luv17:.
I don't understand; are you saying that no matter where Vincent finishes in Nationals, or in the GP, the USFS should send him to the Olympics anyway? And are you saying that if Jason has a good year on the GP or finishes a convincing third at Nationals, let's say, he be "cut out of the running" because he has already been to the Olympics?
The USFS primary duty is to maximize their chances at the 2018 Olympic games, and to reward the skaters who have earned a slot for those games. Which has yet to be determined.
Max, Adam, Jason have no chance at the 2018 game. So it is a moot point.
Anyone of them going is a waste opportunity for the USFS because they are the past.
Who is skating past 2018? Give them the opportunity. Vincent has proven himself a few times and he has youth on his side. He should be going.
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I can't say for sure. I was reading Tammy's bio of students and saw his name on the list.
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I don't think Vincent should get special consideration, but we do know that the USFSA has promoted more artistic men and held back marks for more technical skaters in the past. If marked fairly, Vincent should make the team. However, it wouldn't surprise me to see Adam and Jason get a 20-30 point PCS edge over him, either.
At 2017, the margin was 11.5 points in PCS between Jason and Vincent, FWIW. I don't see that margin increasing, if anything it will probably decrease, like it did for Nathan.
Internationally so far, Jason has had nearly a 16 point margin (91.80 vs 75.94). Adam had a 10 point margin on him at the same competition (85.34).
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