2017 U.S. Nationals Championship Ladies SP

[Mrs. P]

Stuff that like frustrates me to no end. She does need to work on those things, no question, but... she has a world silver and multiple GPF medals. She is ALREADY competing with the best in the world.

I don't mind it so much. I think he's noting it because she has said she wants to win and noting why she might continue to be a bridesmaid at major international comps rather than the bride.

I think its amazing what Ashley has done in SPITE of these key weaknesses, but I think seeing other skaters last night, it's clear that when other step up, like Mirai and even Karen to an extent, that she can't just be clean-ish and win.

 

[Princessroja]

I don't mind it so much. I think he's noting it because she has said she wants to win and noting why she might continue to be a bridesmaid at major international comps rather than the bride.

I think its amazing what Ashley has done in SPITE of these key weaknesses, but I think seeing other skaters last night, it's clear that when other step up, like Mirai and even Karen to an extent, that she can't just be clean-ish and win.

Oh I agree, and I think what he's going for is she won't win world's GOLD, but I hear the phrase "competing with the best in the world" a lot, usually for skaters of Ashley's caliber or near it, and it's not like we're talking 10th place nationals skaters with a single Senior B assignment here (no disrespect to them!). Her world standing is fifth. That IS one of the best in the world already. Like I said, I totally agree that she's got some issues (that I'd love to see her improve, because I'm a fan of hers), but let's not act like she's some bit-rate skater here. She's simply not.

edit: not that you were, Mrs. P--I mean Charlie!

 

[da96103]

I think Mirai will go clean, no triple Axel, and win. Karen second. :yes:

I love any prediction that says Mirai will win.

 

[somnius96]

And mirai had a two foot landing..nether of them were perfect but I'd give the slight edge to Ashley she performed better then mirai did imo

They gave Ashley higher components compared to Mirai, however she lost points on spins and footwork. Both Karen and Mirai beat Ashley on the TES, not PCS.

 

[stella luna]

Not only does she look scared, she looks unhealthy.

I don't think she was held up either, her 3lz3t saved her. She barely made the 3lz though. She looks really out of shape, just my opinion.

 

[Nigel]

Rewatched the ladies SP last night. I think it was Tara who said this...no one seemed to be taking advantage of the small mistakes that were being made by the expected podium finishes, aside from Karen Chen.

Wagner skated like she usually skates, with sass. Kind of over that style, but the others for the most part, all looked like they were skating on the defensive....not on the offensive, if that makes sense. Somewhat tentative, and not with the "I am gonna go out there and wear my heart on my sleeve" sort of performance....with nothing to loose, everything to gain.

So..... someone please explain to me HOW USFS judging panels continue to over-inflate the scores of these skaters?!? How does a skater, with a triple-triple (Flip-Toe) and a two footed 3Loop score almost 72 points in a SP?

Same goes for Gold's SP. A missed required element (doubling the flip, with an edge call) so zero points on that element. Almost 65 points for that program???

We all know these scores would not stand at 4CC or Worlds. 72 points should reflect a totally clean program, level fours, with a 3/3 and probably a flip and a lutz , rather than loop.


And, why isn't USFS elite performance team working with the coaches to get these skaters to be competitive and have the 3Flip and 3 Lutz in the SP for the ladies? I know Gold is trying to get both the 3F and 3Lutz back into her programs, but struggling still :-( There are so few US ladies who actually do 3Flip and 3Lutz correctly, even reflecting back over the last two OLY cycles. I know, this is an old argument for the US ladies, and rehashed so many times, but quite frankly, I would think it is time for the executive board members of USFS to bring it down on the elite performance management group and tell them they need to have coaches teaching proper technique to bring the skaters into full competitiveness with other federations.

Guess we will have to wait and see who brings their game to the free skate.

Congrats to Karen Chen. On to the free skate.

 

[bytheriver]

My concern is whether or not Gracie will have the stamina to get through the LP, emotionally and physically. While some have said that her step sequence was fast and quick, it seemed like she was trudging through it towards the end. She didn't have any of the speed that she normally has in competition (not even talking about the jumps). She looked terrified before the program, happy after she landed the 3-3, wooden after she popped the flip, and happy after the program, but in a relieved "thank god that is over" way. People mention that she is the same amount of points away from gold as she was last year, but she isn't in the same physical or emotional condition as last year. I wouldn't expect any miracles in the long.

I expect Karen to likely drop in the standings (based on her history), although she'll probably medal. I'm hopeful for Mirai since her attitude seems better and she actually seems excited for the long, not nervous like after the Autumn Classic short. I think she and Ashley will probably hold it together and stay on the podium after the free skate, particularly since the judges are being ~lenient~ with the UR calls (not that I think they should). I wouldn't be surprised to see an Ashley/Mirai victory on Saturday.

 

[Jammers]

I don't know what's going to happen tomorrow. But if Gracie doesn't make the podium, I hope she finds her competitive drive this off season. Maybe if Ashley passes on 4CC again, Gracie can go instead.

The last thing Gracie needs is to go 4CC and bomb again for a 3rd straight year.

 

[desertskates]

After the short and having a night to sleep on it, I'm thinking the final standings will be 1/2. Ashley/Mirai 3. Karen 4. Tessa 5. Gracie. 4CC and Worlds team will be Ashley, Mirai, and Gracie, and some kind of kerfuffle will ensue. Just a hunch.

 

[KatGrace1925]

Not only does she look scared, she looks unhealthy.

It makes me nervous because yeah she is not in top shape. Alex and Frank have both said that. She is on her way and getting better but she is not in the shape she was last year.

Going to Alex snapped her out of her funk, but she wasn't conditioning properly before that. As much as I want her on the world team realisitcally speaking it could go either way. Worst case scenario she doesn't make it and it gives her fire to make next year count.

 

[Mrs. P]

Rewatched the ladies SP last night. I think it was Tara who said this...no one seemed to be taking advantage of the small mistakes that were being made by the expected podium finishes, aside from Karen Chen.

Wagner skated like she usually skates, with sass. Kind of over that style, but the others for the most part, all looked like they were skating on the defensive....not on the offensive, if that makes sense. Somewhat tentative, and not with the "I am gonna go out there and wear my heart on my sleeve" sort of performance....with nothing to loose, everything to gain.

So..... someone please explain to me HOW USFS judging panels continue to over-inflate the scores of these skaters?!? How does a skater, with a triple-triple (Flip-Toe) and a two footed 3Loop score almost 72 points in a SP?

There's a general inflation in ladies skating internationally too. You can still get 70 with mistakes in technical content. Elena Radionova got 70 with a UR in her 3Z-3T at Cup of China (http://www.isuresults.com/results/season1617/gpchn2016/gpchn2016_Ladies_SP_Scores.pdf)

It's clear that the medal winning standard, just looking at JGPF is officially 74-79 now. The USFS judges are actually judging the Ladies below what better skated programs were scored at GPF.

Mirai Nagasu got 73 with a perfect program at Autumn Classic, so really 71 doesn't seem that off.

Not saying I agree with inflation, but just thinking this is not just a USFS thing.

 

[drivingmissdaisy]

So..... someone please explain to me HOW USFS judging panels continue to over-inflate the scores of these skaters?!? How does a skater, with a triple-triple (Flip-Toe) and a two footed 3Loop score almost 72 points in a SP?

Same goes for Gold's SP. A missed required element (doubling the flip, with an edge call) so zero points on that element. Almost 65 points for that program???

Gracie got 76+ points for a clean SP at worlds, so this program would easily score 64+ points anywhere. Mirai would have had two < in any international event, one on the toe and one on the loop. At worlds, Mirai had one < and scored 65; what she skated last night would not have topped 60 anywhere except at our nationals. The scoring manipulation from these ignored calls is ridiculous.

 

[FlattFan]

Gracie got 76+ points for a clean SP at worlds, so this program would easily score 64+ points anywhere. Mirai would have had two < in any international event, one on the toe and one on the loop. At worlds, Mirai had one < and scored 65; what she skated last night would not have topped 60 anywhere except at our nationals. The scoring manipulation from these ignored calls is ridiculous.

Oh please. Mirai's maxed out on all of her non-jump elements. Her 3F-3T looked rotated to me. Only the 3loop is the problem. Even if you pull down the 3Loop, she should clear 70. If radionova with terrible posture and line and eked out jumps can score over 70 with 1 <, so can Mirai.

 

[Sasha'sSpins]

I don't know what's going to happen tomorrow. But if Gracie doesn't make the podium, I hope she finds her competitive drive this off season. Maybe if Ashley passes on 4CC again, Gracie can go instead.

With the new rules (Worlds selection is guaranteed to no one, not even the gold medallist) Gracie could well be put on the Worlds team even with poor skates at Nationals. The committee may feel she (apart from Ashley) has the best chance of a high placement at Worlds, guaranteeing 3 spots for next year's Olympics.

 

[jenaj]

Oh please. Mirai's maxed out on all of her non-jump elements. Her 3F-3T looked rotated to me. Only the 3loop is the problem. Even if you pull down the 3Loop, she should clear 70. If radionova with terrible posture and line and eked out jumps can score over 70 with 1 <, so can Mirai.

Mirai's non-jump elements are overall among the top three or four in the World right now. I'm thinking of Satoko, Julia and Mao. And of those, only Satoko will be at Worlds this year. She is often woefully underscored on PCS, not her elements (except at NHK this year, where her 3T looked good but got a < and she got only level 3 on some of her spins). Scored fairly, she could easily reach high 60's/70 internationally even with a < (and skating clean, she has already scored a 73).

 

[drivingmissdaisy]

Even if you pull down the 3Loop, she should clear 70.

A two-foot and < on the loop would result in -3 GOE across the board. That alone would drop her under 70, unless you think she was lowballed on PCS.

 

[jenaj]

There's a general inflation in ladies skating internationally too. You can still get 70 with mistakes in technical content. Elena Radionova got 70 with a UR in her 3Z-3T at Cup of China (http://www.isuresults.com/results/season1617/gpchn2016/gpchn2016_Ladies_SP_Scores.pdf)

It's clear that the medal winning standard, just looking at JGPF is officially 74-79 now. The USFS judges are actually judging the Ladies below what better skated programs were scored at GPF.

Mirai Nagasu got 73 with a perfect program at Autumn Classic, so really 71 doesn't seem that off.

Not saying I agree with inflation, but just thinking this is not just a USFS thing.

And Ashley had an UR in her long program at Worlds last year and won silver!

 

[jenaj]

Mirai probably will not go clean. If she tries the 3A she will fall, stumble or even if landed sadly probably lose focus and make an error.

Mirai skated really well at NHK but was scored extremely harshly. Mirai has only two elements to worry about in her long and they are both 3T's in combination. It was a fluke for her to two-foot her loop--usually one of her best jumps. I think she can skate clean or nearly clean. Go Mirai!

 

[jenaj]

Interesting SP. Very open, anything can happen in the FS. I agree with the result, Karen Chen was wonderful. Love what Mirai did to her Piano boots, they look much better with the golden heel and sole. Fine performance from her, love that program. Gracie can still win this, I just hope her loop works better than her flip at this point in time, if it doesn't she'll have a hard time in the FS. Ashley is in the perfect position (for her) before the FS, so I guess she's going to win this. Liked her performance, very entertaining, unusual little error on the 2A.

Gracie will need help to win. Last year, Polina didn't score over 70 in her short program. There was room for Grace to move up on her own. It's going to be harder this year unless other make mistakes (which could happen).

ETA: Correction, Polina did score a little over 70 last year.

 

[ssffww]

Grace will need help to win. Last year, Polina didn't score over 70 in her short program. There was room for Grace to move up on her own. It's going to be harder this year unless other make mistakes (which could happen).

Polina scored a 70.19 for her short last year, so just over 70. Agree it will take a miraculous skate from Gracie to win this one though.