2018-19 Japanese Ladies' figure skating

[Spinning]

Thanks
I wish the best for her, but I’m also worried for Moa Iwano, Yuka Nagai, and Akari. What if these skaters? No one is talking about them which makes me think their career is over.

Yuka Nagai is a Waseda'student now from the last I heard. She seems enjoy her student life and skating might no longer be her priority.

 

[synteis]

How important are summer test skates with the Japanese Ladies?

 

[bluelutz]

Thanks
I wish the best for her, but I’m also worried for Moa Iwano, Yuka Nagai, and Akari. What if these skaters? No one is talking about them which makes me think their career is over.

As for Yuna,
unfortunately the possibility that she can get even one GP spots is very slim if the federation gives Kihira two spots.

I re-post what I wrote on this thread while ago, which explains it logically.

_______________________________________________________________

2 spots guaranteed from Worlds

Higuchi
Miyahara

Not top 12 at Worlds but top 24 Season Best

Sakamoto
Mihara
Honda
Matsuda
Yamashita

So these seven ladies get 2 spots each, which means 7X2=14 spots. (Top 24 SB list guarantees only one spot, but skaters on that list always got 2 spots in the past)

Also Rika Hongo's WS is still within Top 24, so one spot is guaranteed for her. However, unlike SB list, skaters on WS lists not always got two spots in the past.

Rika Kihira did not win at JGP final, and she did not medal at JW either. Her SB is 27th, and her WS is 56th, which means she did not earn any senior GPS spot on her own.
However, last year Yuna Shiraiwa did get two spots even though she did not have any of those qualifications. The Japanese federation gave a host spot to her, and also an invitational spot from France to her, even though Matsuda's SB was higher than Shiraiwa's (but both of theirs were lower than 24th) that means they thought Shiraiwa got the more potential than Matsuda.

So it is very possible for Japan to get Rika Kihira two spots in the same way, and it is not difficult to imagine that their federation likes her to compete for the next Worlds which is going to be held in Japan since she finished 3rd at the senior Nationals and also she is the 3A jumper.

14 spots are going to be used by other Japanese ladies, and one (+ one possibly) can be for Rika Hongo, and if Rika Kihira gets two spots, this means that 18 spots for Japanese ladies. I assume that one country can send three skaters to each GPS competition, which means that 3x6+18 is the max.

And if Rika Kihira gets 2 and Rika Hongo gets 2, there is nothing for Shiraiwa because Japan can not get more than 18, despite of the fact that Shiraiwa's SB (26th) is higher than Kihira's (27th). And judging with their expectation on Kihira, they will not split two spots between them.

Once again, senior GPS spots have to be earned by skaters, and the federations do not have much control unless they are on the skaters below SB 24th. Last year Shiraiwa could be favored over Matsuda because both of them were below SB 24th. However, this year Matsuda is within top 24 SB, so theoretically the Japanese federation cannot do anything on her two spots (If she does not get the second spot, that would be the first in the history). So if Kihira gets two spots, there is none for Shiraiwa, or Hongo's second spot might be sacrificed for Shiraiwa.

_______________________________________________________________

Yuna failed to meet the criteria for the GPS two seasons in a row,
and she was given a huge chance last year, but she could not capitalize it.
I hope she can get at least one spot but ultimately she really needs to earn one on her own by placing herself on the top 24 SB list.

 

[bluelutz]

Thanks
I wish the best for her, but I’m also worried for Moa Iwano, Yuka Nagai, and Akari. What if these skaters? No one is talking about them which makes me think their career is over.

As for Moa,
she isn't going anywhere without fixing her huge UR issues. Since that she did very poorly at the Japanese Junior Nationals (11th) and the Inter-Junior High Meet (SP 23rd, and could not advanced for FS), I can not have a high expectation on the possibility that she can get selected for this season's JGP. But I do love her, and she still has a plenty of time to work on those.
As for Yuka Nagai, I think her career as an internationally competitive skater is pretty much over unless she finds a new motivation to train more seriously. She was 22nd at the Nationals.
As for Akari Matsuoka, she did not do well at Junior Nationals either (16th), and like Moa she got the UR issue as well. However, the required solo jump in SP is Flip this season, so she can use 3Lz+3T for her combo, which works for her. One concern is that I have not heard anything on her since Junior Nationals. Hope that she has not been ill or injured.

 

[Ice Dance]

As for Yuna,
unfortunately the possibility that she can get even one GP spots is very slim if the federation gives Kihira two spots.

I re-post what I wrote on this thread while ago, which explains it logically.

_______________________________________________________________

2 spots guaranteed from Worlds

Higuchi
Miyahara

Not top 12 at Worlds but top 24 Season Best

Sakamoto
Mihara
Honda
Matsuda
Yamashita

So these seven ladies get 2 spots each, which means 7X2=14 spots.

Not necessarily. They might, and that would be a fairly common way of doing it. But the bottom five are only guaranteed 1 spot. Sakamoto and Mihara are essentially locks for two placements, having medaled at a major international last season. I don't remember all the minor event results last season; but from what I do remember, Honda stayed above the other ladies pretty consistently (she did lose to Hongo at Nationals). I'd say it's a pretty safe bet Marin has two invitations. Results were split among the other Japanese ladies last season so it is possible that GP spots could be split among them as well, with some of them receiving only one spot. (Yamashita did have a medal at Junior Worlds. Kihira had a great Nationals. Those are in their favor).

 

[bluelutz]

How important are summer test skates with the Japanese Ladies?

Very important, especially for Junior ladies.
Usually around this time of the year, top junior ladies are invited to the selection event which is not open for the public. So unless the skaters leak the information on their SNS, we cannot tell who were participants. The federation will select seven girls who get the first one spots, and a few(3-4) substitutes in case that those seven girls missing the top 4 on the each JGP events.
Also the federation does have the selection events for senior ladies for NHK host pick spot and the international B events if they are necessary. Probably this year they do not need one for NHK ladies' spot, and they had/will have one for the ladies who do not have GPS spots (international B events/the Challenger series events in the early time of the season are usually reserved for the ladies who do have GPS spots).

 

[SnowWhite]

Not necessarily. They might, and that would be a fairly common way of doing it. But the bottom five are only guaranteed 1 spot. Sakamoto and Mihara are essentially locks for two placements, having medaled at a major international last season. I don't remember all the minor event results last season; but from what I do remember, Honda stayed above the other ladies pretty consistently (she did lose to Hongo at Nationals). I'd say it's a pretty safe bet Marin has two invitations. Results were split among the other Japanese ladies last season so it is possible that GP spots could be split among them as well, with some of them receiving only one spot. (Yamashita did have a medal at Junior Worlds. Kihira had a great Nationals. Those are in their favor).

I think Marin's SB is high enough that she'll very likely get a 2nd like you said.

But I agree that we shouldn't assume Yamashita and Matsuda will. Typically, singles skates in the top 24 always end up with a 2nd spot, yes. However, Japan is getting close to the max spots (as is Russia). It's 18 spots per country, but often ends up being 1-2 less because not every fed will necessarily give 3 to one country. Russia ended up with 17 last season, for example.

I believe the GP spots are done by filling host spots first, then the seeds from Worlds by group, then the guaranteed spots from SB and WS, then they fill the rest of the spots (I'm not sure though). If that is right, by the time they get to filling in non-guaranteed spots (2nd spots/first spots from those just below top 24) there will already be several Japanese ladies spots filled (I say it this way since there is a max for Japan): 4 (Worlds), 5 (top 24 SB), 1 (WS), at least 1 (host spot - Rika K). So there's 11 spots. Then let's say a 2nd spot for Kaori, Mai and Marin - we're at 14. So there are 4 spots maximum for other Japanese ladies. If the Fed gets Rika K a 2nd, we have 3 left. I assume that the Japanese ladies won't get more than 17 spots in reality, like Russia last season. So 2 spots left.

Those 2 spots could go to Yamashita and Matsuda, but the Japanese fed could probably get Yuna S one spot if they wanted to (not saying they would want to or should, but they probably could try), or a Fed could choose say Rika H if they wanted.

Because both Rika K and Mako Yamashita are in the special athletes category from the JSF, I would guess that the fed will push for them to get 2 spotsover giving a 2nd to Matsuda or a first to Yuna S, since both of them are only Category B. So I'd guess we'll see:

- Satoko - 2 spots
- Wakaba - 2 spots
- Kaori - 2 spots
- Mai - 2 spots
- Marin - 2 spots
- Mako Y - 2 spots
- Rika K - 2 spots
- Yura M - 1 spot
- Rika H - 1 spot

Plus maybe one more spot which could go to Yura, Rika H or Yuna S.

 

[bluelutz]

Not necessarily. They might, and that would be a fairly common way of doing it. But the bottom five are only guaranteed 1 spot. Sakamoto and Mihara are essentially locks for two placements, having medaled at a major international last season.

Obviously you do not know the criteria which are necessary for the GPS selection.
As long as I know, ISU stated that skaters on top 24 SB or WS lists are guaranteed one spot. However, in the past all the skaters who were on top 24 SB lists got the second spot which is the fact, but not always so for the skaters on the top WS list, which I wrote on the original post. This means that you can not say Sakamoto and Mihara are essentially locks for two spots because their major success at the international events, which is totally your speculation. Only Miyahara and Higuchi are guaranteed for two spots for sure, but those who are on top 24 SB list most likely get two spots judging with the fact in the past. However, still it is not guaranteed because things did not happen in the past can happen in the future especially.

I don't remember all the minor event results last season; but from what I do remember, Honda stayed above the other ladies pretty consistently (she did lose to Hongo at Nationals). I'd say it's a pretty safe bet Marin has two invitations. Results were split among the other Japanese ladies last season so it is possible that GP spots could be split among them as well, with some of them receiving only one spot. (Yamashita did have a medal at Junior Worlds. Kihira had a great Nationals. Those are in their favor).

These comments show that you do not know anything about GPS selection. The National events has nothing to do with GPS selection. Marin will get one spot which is guaranteed because she is on the top 24 SB lists, and again the skaters on that list usually get the second spots, ant it is nothing to do with the result that she stayed above the other (Japanese) ladies consistently or not. Only one thing in the domestic competitions or competitions among Japanese ladies matters is for the selection of NHK host pick, and selection for the invitational spots for the skaters who do not meet the criteria. Everything you are talking here is your speculations.

GPS spots have to be earned by skaters by the rules that ISU set. The federation have some power to control them when it comes to the host picks and the invitational spots for those who do not meet the criteria.

This is why I can be very hesitant to post here. No matter how logically I try to explain, so many people leaves illogical comments. Things like GPS selection take place every year, then why so many people even do not try to understand the system correctly.
Thanks for reminding me of the reality here.

 

[yume]

What i will keep from this talk is that all top Japaneses can have a spot at least.

 

[Ice Dance]

Obviously you do not know the criteria which are necessary for the GPS selection.

Yes, I know that athletes on the top 24 SB and top 24 World Standing list are only guaranteed one spot. As I said.

After that, I absolutely switched to analyzing the situation based on results and what we usually see. "Essentially" is a qualifying world. If I had meant that Mihara & Sakamoto were guaranteed a spot based on the rules, I would have said they were locks rather than "essentially" locks.

In singles, there are so many GP spots available that you generally see athletes in the top 24 receive two invitations. It doesn't have to happen that way, though. It is just more common because once the guaranteed spots are filled, then host countries are advised to fill their remaining invitations by considering SB scores.

In Russia this season, it would be impossible for all ten ladies on the SB list to get two invites. Which won't be a problem because Russia will send 2-4 onto the JGP instead. In the case of at least one athlete, this is necessary due to age. But it's not uncommon for Russia to keep athletes in juniors a bit longer than fans expect precisely because other senior athletes are competitive for the same senior GP spots.

Now, it's absolutely possible that the Japanese ladies on the top 24 SB list will receive double invitations. But it doesn't have to work that way. With so many athletes from the top 24 this year coming from only two countries, the real battle for those athletes is within their own country. If the Japanese Federation wants all their top 24 athletes to get double invites over athletes who are ranked lower on the SB list, then that is probably how it will play out. If the Japanese Federation wants to spread the wealth, however, because some of their slightly lower ranked athletes outscored athletes with higher SB scores in actual head-to-head competitions, then Japan can encourage a different scenario. So you could see athletes like Kihira or Shiraiwa receive single invites before Matsuda receives two. It would be highly unlikely if those ladies weren't all ranked high enough on the SB list for consideration, but they will be. At the very least, they will all be on the GP replacement list. (Federations can't issue GP invitations to athletes from non-host events, but they can politically influence those invitations by trading for spots, etc.)

It's a very similar scenario to U.S. ice dance over the past two seasons. Last year, the Parsons and McNamara & Carpenter were both top 22 on the SB list. But most likely because there were so many U.S. teams on that list, neither received a second invitation during the initial GP draw. While Kaliszek & Spodyriev and Lauriault & Le Gac, both ranked lower, received double non-host invitations. The host spot at Skate America could have gone to either U.S. team. It went to the Parsons who had the higher SB and higher scores the previous season, but it could have gone to McNamara & Carpenter, who had the higher summer score and an essentially equivalent/slightly superior junior record over the course of several years. A judgment call had to be made and M&C received an extra Challenger instead. The year before, we had a similar scenario with Pogrebinsky & Benoit and Cannuscio & McManus--both of whom were at or near the top of the replacement list. In the end, C&M received a late invite to NHK and USFS was free to invite P&B for SA. But if C&M hadn't received NHK, it could have gone either way. C&M had high Nationals results and P&B had a strong summer season. This year Bradie Tennell got the SA invite over Courtney Hicks despite having a significantly lower SB score because Bradie had a stronger competitive summer season.

So the SB ranking is important, but if you have a lot of top athletes ranked high on it, then there are multiple options.

You've essentially said this by pointing out that Kihira--who is off the top 24 SB list and has a lower SB than Shiraiwa, Yamashita, and Matsuda--may have a chance at two invitations. (One would likely have to be at NHK, as Shiraiwa's was last season). But Kihira could receive one invite for a non-host spot before Matsuda or Yamashita receive a second. Same could happen with Shiraiwa. I'm not expecting it to happen. Just pointing out that it's possible, and Japanese Nationals results would be a good enough reason for Japan to consider it.

 

[mikeko666]

Thanks
I wish the best for her, but I’m also worried for Moa Iwano, Yuka Nagai, and Akari. What if these skaters? No one is talking about them which makes me think their career is over.

Moa is only 14, and just made her junior debut last season.

 

[yume]

How does work the substitutes list? Is a skater with 25th, 26th, or 30th season best guaranteed to have a spot if a skater from 24 SB list withdraw?
I remember last season when an unknown Chinese skater coming out of nowhere got a GP spot after a withdrawal. I assume that there were a lot of skaters above him on SB and WS.

 

[randomfan]

How does work the substitutes list? Is a skater with 25th, 26th, or 30th season best guaranteed to have a spot if a skater from 24 SB list withdraw?
I remember last season when an unknown Chinese skater coming out of nowhere got a GP spot after a withdrawal. I assume that there were a lot of skaters above him on SB and WS.

I believe the fed can invite anyone with a top 75 SB, which is probably where the Chinese skater came from.

 

[SnowWhite]

How does work the substitutes list? Is a skater with 25th, 26th, or 30th season best guaranteed to have a spot if a skater from 24 SB list withdraw?
I remember last season when an unknown Chinese skater coming out of nowhere got a GP spot after a withdrawal. I assume that there were a lot of skaters above him on SB and WS.

For the sub / replacement list, the rule is that they can choose from the top ten in line from the SB list. Sometimes it's not clear who's on it, because there might be people who we aren't sure if they've been submitted, are still in junior, are already in the event, etc. Plus, it's clear that there is flexibility in that for the hosts. Like if it's close to the event, they might choose someone conveniently located. And sometimes, it makes no sense who they choose. But here's the rule:

The alternate list needs to be worked through in ranking order for the top 75 ranked Skaters/Couples according
to their Season’s Best. All Skaters/Couples of the alternate list will be grouped in top ranked groups of ten (10)
Skaters, out of which the respective Organizing ISU Member may pick one Skater/Couple for invitation.
Skaters/Couples, who place first in any of the ISU Challenger Series events for 2016/17 and can prove to have
skated the minimum total score or the minimum Technical score as mentioned in paragraph 2.3, as well as
Skaters/Couples, who can prove to have skated the minimum Technical score will be added to the alternate
list, bottom ranked according to their scores.

 

[Ice Dance]

How does work the substitutes list? Is a skater with 25th, 26th, or 30th season best guaranteed to have a spot if a skater from 24 SB list withdraw?
I remember last season when an unknown Chinese skater coming out of nowhere got a GP spot after a withdrawal. I assume that there were a lot of skaters above him on SB and WS.

Basically those athletes who are not originally assigned 2 events in June have their SB scores compared. The athletes with the ten highest scores remaining are assigned to the replacement list. Host countries can select anyone from among those ten athletes. (If athletes are injured, retired, choosing not to compete the GP, or competing on the JGP instead, they are not included on the replacement list and the spot goes to the next eligible athlete). You can also be added to the list if you win a Challenger. Countries can select anyone they want off the 10 team replacement list. They often select lower-ranked athletes rather than the ones at the top. (And sometimes countries just ignore the rules. Russia did last season for their ladies replacement spot. Also if there is a very late withdrawal, invitations often have to go to someone who lives close enough to make the flight).

The replacement list is only relevant for non-host spots. Host spots can go to anyone the local federation selects.

I do not know what Chinese man you are referring to. Are you sure he was Chinese and not filling a host spot? He Zhang was the only Chinese man other than Boyang Jin and Han Yan invited on the GP in either 2016 or 2017. He Zhang had a host invite at Cup of China so he didn't need to be on the replacement list. (He also isn't unknown, just young. He has six JGP medals).

There was a relatively unknown Chinese man, Tangxu Li, invited to World Team Trophy in 2017. Perhaps that is what you are thinking of? World Team Trophy isn't a Grand Prix event, and it follows a completely different set of rules for selecting competitors.

 

[yume]

There was a relatively unknown Chinese man, Tangxu Li, invited to World Team Trophy in 2017. Perhaps that is what you are thinking of? World Team Trophy isn't a Grand Prix event, and it follows a completely different set of rules for selecting competitors.

No i think it was at cup of China. His name was Rinqu Liu i think( sorry that's surely how his name is written).

 

[Tulipstar]

Wow, you ladies/guys are so knowledgeable! Thanks for the infollowing.

 

[Ice Dance]

No i think it was at cup of China. His name was Rinqu Liu i think( sorry that's surely how his name is written).

Did he withdraw before competing? (No names anything close to that in the last four years at Cup of China, but he could have been selected and withdrawn due to injury or illness). Regardless, he would have been selected for a host spot at Cup of China; and therefore, just needed to be selected by his federation. No ranking or replacement list necessary. Host countries are advised to invite athletes that have met the world minimum scores, but even that isn't a requirement for host spots.

 

[yume]

Did he withdraw before competing? (No names anything close to that in the last four years at Cup of China, but he could have been selected and withdrawn due to injury or illness). Regardless, he would have been selected for a host spot at Cup of China; and therefore, just needed to be selected by his federation. No ranking or replacement list necessary. Host countries are advised to invite athletes that have met the world minimum scores, but even that isn't a requirement for host spots.

Maybe he withdraw. I found a Runqi Liu in chinese nationals results. Must be him.
Yes it was surely a host spot.

 

[QuadSal]

Kaori Sakamoto is getting her Programs choreographed by David Wilson

https://twitter.com/ifsmagazine/status/1004206707734532096