2018-19 Japanese Ladies' figure skating

[yume]

Poor Marin. I know communication is tough for her at the moment since Raf said she pretty much doesn't understand him at all (she skates yolo at practice, apparently ) but I really hope something can be done on that end since it would be a shame if their partnership ended without any results. Not to mention I'd love to see her in more B-comps. I blame that terrible fall at Skate America for breaking her focus... and my heart! At least from her Instagram she seems to be having a blast in California. I wouldn't mind if she kept her programs from this year either, because neither seem like they got a chance to flourish imo (though she should have kept the original SP dress grr!). Oh well... ganba, Marin-chan!

One more vote for Marin keeping her programs next season, with the original SP dress:agree:

 

[Skater Boy]

Do you get a sense of a Japanese sweep at worlds is become more of a reality?

 

[Wombat1800]

Do you get a sense of a Japanese sweep at worlds is become more of a reality?

I think it's very possible if Satoko, Rika, and Kaori all bring their a game, but at this point nothing is guaranteed

 

[Ice Dance]

Do you get a sense of a Japanese sweep at worlds is become more of a reality?

I've had the sense ever since Europeans, and even more since Russia opted to leave Elizaveta off the team. But it will come down to real performances during the event, and there are many possible scenarios.

 

[Dreamer57]

I think it's very possible if Satoko, Rika, and Kaori all bring their a game, but at this point nothing is guaranteed

I would like to see Satoko on the podium, as I love both her programs!

As the 3rd highest SB in senior ladies and the defending ladies' bronze medallist, I'm surprised to see that on the predictions thread, so many have placed her in 5th or lower.
(I actually counted 9 podium finishes out of 89 full ladies predictions. )

 

[yume]

Do you get a sense of a Japanese sweep at worlds is become more of a reality?

A sweep is very possible.
I think a top 6 is definitely possible, even is other contenders are clean.
For the sweep, they need the help of Zagitova, Tursynbaeva and Medvedeva.
A clean Satoko without URs call has a potential of 77+ in SP, 145+ in FS, 220-225 total score. That's enough for a third place if Rika and Alina are clean, more if they are not.
Kaori can have 73+ in SP, 145+ in FS (without edge call and GOEs like at GPF), 115-120 total score. Enough for top 5 or 6 if Zagitova, Tursynbaeva are clean. Enough for top 3 if they aren't.
Rika is the heavy favorite for the win.
Zagitova has a 230+ potential clean with no calls.

I would say that two Japaneses on podium is more possible than a sweep. Because i can't see Medvedeva top a clean Satoko's score even if she's clean, and get the bronze. I think clean Kaori and Medvedeva are tied for the 4th place. Tursynbaeva is close but i put her behind because of that low potential scoring in SP. In think 72 is the most she can get while Kaori and Medvedeva can get 75. All of them can get 145+ in FS.
Samodurova and Tennell can put 210-215 on the table. Which made them dangerous only in case of mistakes.

Now Zagitova and Medvedeva are not a model of consistency this season so mistakes from them are likely. Tursynbaeva has to have the skates of her life to expect the podium.
Japaneses have been more consistents but not rock solid so everything is possible.
It depends also on how high Medvedeva's PCS can go. But if she's back at her old PCS with that season and those programs, and that Satoko still get 35 and 71 PCS, judging will break a new level.

So, i bet more on 2 Japaneses on podium than on a sweep.

Do we already have the name of TC? If he/she has a Shin Amano-like reputation, things will get more interesting.

 

[figurefan0726]

A sweep is very possible.
I think a top 6 is definitely possible, even is other contenders are clean.
For the sweep, they need the help of Zagitova, Tursynbaeva and Medvedeva.
A clean Satoko without URs call has a potential of 77+ in SP, 145+ in FS, 220-225 total score. That's enough for a third place if Rika and Alina are clean, more if they are not.
Kaori can have 73+ in SP, 145+ in FS (without edge call and GOEs like at GPF), 115-120 total score. Enough for top 5 or 6 if Zagitova, Tursynbaeva are clean. Enough for top 3 if they aren't.
Rika is the heavy favorite for the win.
Zagitova has a 230+ potential clean with no calls.

I would say that two Japaneses on podium is more possible than a sweep. Because i can't see Medvedeva top a clean Satoko's score even if she's clean, and get the bronze. I think clean Kaori and Medvedeva are tied for the 4th place. Tursynbaeva is close but i put her behind because of that low potential scoring in SP. In think 72 is the most she can get while Kaori and Medvedeva can get 75. All of them can get 145+ in FS.
Samodurova and Tennell can put 210-215 on the table. Which made them dangerous only in case of mistakes.

Now Zagitova and Medvedeva are not a model of consistency this season so mistakes from them are likely. Tursynbaeva has to have the skates of her life to expect the podium.
Japaneses have been more consistents but not rock solid so everything is possible.
It depends also on how high Medvedeva's PCS can go. But if she's back at her old PCS with that season and those programs, and that Satoko still get 35 and 71 PCS, judging will break a new level.

So, i bet more on 2 Japaneses on podium than on a sweep.

Do we already have the name of TC? If he/she has a Shin Amano-like reputation, things will get more interesting.

Mami Maeda is the TC for the ladies in both the SP and FS. Seems like she is Japanese. Maybe she will favor the Japanese (also maybe Korea) more than the other skaters?

 

[risingtrot]

Mami Maeda is the TC for the ladies in both the SP and FS. Seems like she is Japanese. Maybe she will favor the Japanese (also maybe Korea) more than the other skaters?

It could be the other way around. She will be very strict to Japanese skaters.

That said for me, Japanese judges/TC/etc have always been quite neutral in terms of judging. Not so much overscoring or underscoring skaters.

I just hope that should Rika win or something, people will not say 'ahh because its held in Japan that's why she won', etc. I hear that far too often in SNS comments. Quite unfair to the skaters/teams who have been working very hard to get where they are.

 

[Marin]

Mami Maeda is the TC for the ladies in both the SP and FS. Seems like she is Japanese. Maybe she will favor the Japanese (also maybe Korea) more than the other skaters?

its specialist who calls, Not controller ... she might give notes or ask for replay if there are doubts but overall its specialist who calls, not controller.

 

[yume]

its specialist who calls, Not controller ... she might give notes or ask for replay if there are doubts but overall its specialist who calls, not controller.

I was wrong then.
TS is european so at least people won't talk about patriotic bias.

 

[Marin]

I was wrong then.
TS is european so at least people won't talk about patriotic bias.

It's the same TS who was at Worlds 2017, So frankly I expect her to be very lenient on calls.

 

[yume]

It's the same TS who was at Worlds 2017, So frankly I expect her to be very lenient on calls.

Yes but if she's lenient towards Japaneses people won't say that it's because of patriotic bias, since she's French.

At least if she's lenient with everyone it's not a problem. If she's lenient with some but destroy others, it won't be fair.

 

[surimi]

Do you get a sense of a Japanese sweep at worlds is become more of a reality?

I would be cool with a Japanese sweep, but remember the GPF in Japan where Satoko's points dropped so much that he audience just gave a collective gasp? The same could happen here. I am not worried about Rika K's marks if she hits her elements, but am mentally preparing myself for the possibility that the judges could find something in both Kaori and Satoko's programs to nitpick on.

 

[madison]

I was wrong then.
TS is european so at least people won't talk about patriotic bias.

I just had a look at the Tech panel. The tech specialist, V. Gusmeroli, is someone very pro Russian. She was in the tech panel at Sochi Olympics and also she is usually in the panels at Rostelecom. I expect that some of the Russian underrotations to be overlooked.

 

[rikaquegira]

I just had a look at the Tech panel. The tech specialist, V. Gusmeroli, is someone very pro Russian. She was in the tech panel at Sochi Olympics and also she is usually in the panels at Rostelecom. I expect that some of the Russian underrotations to be overlooked.

I can already see her calling Kaori's flutz and ignoring the rest. :disapp:

 

[TA91]

Vanessa, from the competitions I've watched during the 90's, she had a textbook Lutz but was prone to falling a lot.

 

[CanadianSkaterGuy]

A sweep is very possible.
I think a top 6 is definitely possible, even is other contenders are clean.
For the sweep, they need the help of Zagitova, Tursynbaeva and Medvedeva.
A clean Satoko without URs call has a potential of 77+ in SP, 145+ in FS, 220-225 total score. That's enough for a third place if Rika and Alina are clean, more if they are not.
Kaori can have 73+ in SP, 145+ in FS (without edge call and GOEs like at GPF), 115-120 total score. Enough for top 5 or 6 if Zagitova, Tursynbaeva are clean. Enough for top 3 if they aren't.
Rika is the heavy favorite for the win.
Zagitova has a 230+ potential clean with no calls.

I would say that two Japaneses on podium is more possible than a sweep. Because i can't see Medvedeva top a clean Satoko's score even if she's clean, and get the bronze. I think clean Kaori and Medvedeva are tied for the 4th place. Tursynbaeva is close but i put her behind because of that low potential scoring in SP. In think 72 is the most she can get while Kaori and Medvedeva can get 75. All of them can get 145+ in FS.
Samodurova and Tennell can put 210-215 on the table. Which made them dangerous only in case of mistakes.

Now Zagitova and Medvedeva are not a model of consistency this season so mistakes from them are likely. Tursynbaeva has to have the skates of her life to expect the podium.
Japaneses have been more consistents but not rock solid so everything is possible.
It depends also on how high Medvedeva's PCS can go. But if she's back at her old PCS with that season and those programs, and that Satoko still get 35 and 71 PCS, judging will break a new level.

So, i bet more on 2 Japaneses on podium than on a sweep.

Do we already have the name of TC? If he/she has a Shin Amano-like reputation, things will get more interesting.

A clean Medvedeva will 100% beat a clean Kaori (unless Sakamoto is planning to do a 3A or two?). You acknowledge Samo/Tennell can get 210-215... and this is on par or higher than Kaori's international scores this season.

 

[yume]

A clean Medvedeva will 100% beat a clean Kaori (unless Sakamoto is planning to do a 3A or two?). You acknowledge Samo/Tennell can get 210-215... and this is on par or higher than Kaori's international scores this season.

I was talking about potential scoring. If you take Kaori's SB with the score she would have get at GPF without the fall she has 118-120 potential total score.
Now you're entitled to think that she has less potential scoring and that clean Medvedeva 100% beats her.

 

[risingtrot]

I just had a look at the Tech panel. The tech specialist, V. Gusmeroli, is someone very pro Russian. She was in the tech panel at Sochi Olympics and also she is usually in the panels at Rostelecom. I expect that some of the Russian underrotations to be overlooked.

Aw.. this is kind of worrying ;o
These judges/officials need to be fair.

 

[CanadianSkaterGuy]

I was talking about potential scoring. If you take Kaori's SB with the score she would have get at GPF without the fall she has 118-120 potential total score.
Now you're entitled to think that she has less potential scoring and that clean Medvedeva 100% beats her.

Medvedeva’s PCS is way higher than Kaori’s. Kaori’s GOE is better on the jumps but overall Medvedeva should beat her if they’re both clean. Also, if you want to talk about hypothetical scoring, you can’t use Medvedeva’s seasons bests, knowing that she can score way higher if she’s clean.