2018-19 Ladies' power ranking

[thexfireball]

Replying to in this thread because I think it's more appropriate. In my honest opinion, I don't think there's a whole lot of basis for having Rika behind Alina in PCS, actually. Rika's main issue is consistency. But if she skates both programs clean, in my opinion she should definitely be the best in whatever senior competition she enters, including the world championships.

I wonder how consistency should be ranked. Then again, Alina's not exactly been extremely convincing this season, either.

I agree. Rika’s PCS will definitely go up this season but it all comes down to her consistency. For her senior GP debut, I think the PCS she got was very good, which shows that the judges are willing to give her the marks if she performs.

 

[Spirals for Miles]

Here's my new one:
1. TIED: Alina and Rika. Both have huge technical goods. We saw with Rika that the free BV is so high that it doesn't even matter if she messes up in the short. Alina is out for blood though. She will not want to fall behind and you know she's hungry for the world title she missed last time.
3. TIED: Satoko and Liza. Liza's GOEs are very low for her huge quality jumps, and Satoko's are very high, so both seemed to be equal at NHK. I like them both for different reasons, but Liza seemed a bit underscored and Satoko a bit over at NHK. However, they are both very good.
5. Evgenia. Now she needs a win in France to make the final, or silver with 214+, and seeing as it doesn't matter if Rika messes up, I don't think she can win unless she's perfect. However, one thing about Zhenya is her mental toughness. She does not want to be counted out, and refuses to settle. So I'm expecting an angry Zhenya to show up to France and dominate. Too bad she had two of the hardest three fields on the GP though.
6. Kaori. Can make the GPF but needs Zhenya to falter. Not been terribly consistent this season with the SP but the FS is always good.
7. TIED: Mako and Sofia. Both did exceptionally well at their first GP and both need a silver medal next week to make the final (Sofia with a high score as well). Sofia is quite consistent and we will see how Mako is.
9. Mai. Only had one GP so far and was pretty good, but not good enough for the podium. We'll see how she does in France.
10. Bradie. She has all the technical goods to compete and just needs the packaging aspect. Better this year than last.

 

[BillNeal]

So after NHK, the rankings based on GP scores are:

Highest GP Score

224.31 1 Rika Kihira
219.71 2 Satoko Miyahara
219.02 3 Elizaveta Tuktamysheva
215.29 4 Alina Zagitova
213.90 5 Kaori Sakamoto
206.41 6 Bradie Tennell
204.20 7 Mai Mihara
203.06 8 Mako Yamashita
198.96 9 MariahBell
198.70 10 Sofia Samodurova

There was a discussion about using average scores of the season to compare the ladies. Well, CS's shouldn't be given the same weight as a GP. I have derived a weighted average based on the ranking points ISU gives for the types of events. A challenger and a GP gives 300 points and 400 points to the winner respectively. This ratio of ranking points is consistent from places 1-5 (World Standing document-page 5 and Challenger Series document-page 4). I have used this to derive two weighted averages (slashes added to align the columns):

Weighted average score 1 = Average Challenger score * (300/700) + Average GP score * (400/700)

CS1//// CS2/// GP1/// GP2//// W.A.S. # Skater
238.43 N /// A 215.29 N /// A 225.21 1 Alina Zagitova
218.16 N /// A 224.31 N /// A 221.67 2 Rika Kihira
201.23 N /// A 219.71 219.47 211.72 3 Satoko Miyahara
206.07 202.85 203.32 219.02 208.29 4 Elizaveta Tuktamysheva
209.22 N /// A 204.20 N /// A 206.35 5 Mai Mihara
204.89 N /// A 197.91 N /// A 200.90 6 Evgenia Medvedeva
192.89 N /// A 206.41 N /// A 200.62 7 Bradie Tennell
204.16 N /// A 191.22 N /// A 196.77 8 Loena Hendrickx
180.85 N /// A 213.90 197.42 195.03 9 Kaori Sakamoto
188.97 190.25 198.96 N /// A 194.95 10 MariahBell

Weighted average score 2 = Best Challenger score * (300/700) + Best GP score * (400/700)

CS1//// CS2/// GP1/// GP2//// W.A.S. # Skater
238.43 N /// A 215.29 N /// A 225.21 1 Alina Zagitova
218.16 N /// A 224.31 N /// A 221.67 2 Rika Kihira
206.07 202.85 203.32 219.02 213.47 3 Elizaveta Tuktamysheva
201.23 N /// A 219.71 219.47 211.79 4 Satoko Miyahara
209.22 N /// A 204.20 N /// A 206.35 5 Mai Mihara
204.89 N /// A 197.91 N /// A 200.90 6 Evgenia Medvedeva
192.89 N /// A 206.41 N /// A 200.62 7 Bradie Tennell
180.85 N /// A 213.90 197.42 199.74 8 Kaori Sakamoto
204.16 N /// A 191.22 N /// A 196.77 9 Loena Hendrickx
188.97 190.25 198.96 N /// A 195.23 10 MariahBell

Based on the weighted averages and the top GP scores, it's clear who the Top 4 are. The gap between Zagitova and Kihira is around 3.5 points based on the weighted averages. So no one is really untouchable, as some have suggested.

As for NHK, Liza Tukt is becoming more consistent with the triple axel and had an almost entirely clean competition. Her PCS is rising and she has room in her layout to put a 3F in to increase her BV (in both programs). Satoko got some UR’s but she now has two strong outings on the GP and got two total scores close to 220. And Rika, coming back from 5th in the SP to having a perfect free skate with 2 3A’s. And 224+ to win gold at her premier GP.

 

[moriel]

Update on my ranking
1. Alina Zagitova. Olympic Champion, two great performances. Somewhat struggles at her first GP, but still top
2. (+1) Rika Kihira. Great performance on her 1st GP. If perfectly clean, she may beat a clean Alina. #2 for now, but can easily get to #1 later this season if she keeps skating like that
3. (+1) Satoko Miyahara. She has the artistry and the consistency. Judges seem to be more than eager to reward her jump technique this season
4. (+1) Liza Tuktamisheva. Has a 3A and not afraid to use it. Her components may be an issue, unfortunately, but she still is top.
5. (-3) Zhenya Medvedeva. Olympic Silver medal and all the other achievments. But while she is underperforming, other ladies are slaying.
6. Kaori Sakamoto. Lets see how it goes for her, great jumps and all, if she managed to skate clean, she will climb up the ranks by a lot.
7. Mai Mihara. Good job at NHK.
8. Bradie Tennell. Big fed backing her, but she kind of failed to use the momentum at SA. Also URs.
9. Elizabet Tursynbaeva. She seems happy with her new team, and hungry for some medals. Eteri style also suits her quite well.
10. Sofia Samodurova. She has a GP bronze and non null chances of making GPF considering her second GP.

 

[[email protected]]

A weekly update. Several small changes

#1 Alina Zagitova No news

#2 Rika Kihira +1 More and more clean 3As. Higher and higher pcs. She is a serious contender now for GPF and WC gold


#3 Satoko Miyahara -1 I think that she has reached her potential. She cannot do what she cannot do (textbook jumps) and with such she will never be #1 unless the two above her have a meltdown.

#4 Elizaveta Tuktamysheva +1 Liza moves slowly upwards. I agree with the approach of gradual difficulty increase. If she introduces 3Lz-3T + 3Lo (3F is better) in the short and replaces the second 2A with 3F in the long she will be able to surpass Satoko

#5 Evgenija Medvedeva -1 No news. Her spot in the team still looks safe but she has to win in France with a good margin. Not making GPF might become the turning point in her career. And don't tell me about Kostner and Bejing.

#6 Kaori Sakamoto No news

#7 Bradie Tennell No news

#8 Mai Mihara Mai will fight with Mako for the place in the team - looks like she reached her potential and it is lower than Satoko's

#9 Mako Yamashita No news

#10 Elizabet Tursynbaeva No news


NHK was "a requiem" for big time Maria Sotskova's career. At this point even Stasya is better positioned to compete with Sofia for a substitute place after Zag-Tuk-Med

Another thing is that top 6 places are 3 Russians and 3 Japanese. I think this is how the final group in both GPF (actually this will be the only group) and WC look like. And this is the manifest that for this and likely next several seasons ladies figure skating will be about Russia vs. Japan. Others will distantly trail.

 

[yume]

I think we should wait to see Zagitova at rostelecom (hopefully clean, for the sake of our important analysis), to see what can be the real gap between her and Rika. IMO, Rika potential is 230+. We will see if Zagitova can be close to 240+.
IMO, both clean should be at 230+.

 

[moriel]

I think we should wait to see Zagitova at rostelecom (hopefully clean, for the sake of our important analysis), to see what can be the real gap between her and Rika. IMO, Rika potential is 230+. We will see if Zagitova can be close to 240+.
IMO, both clean should be at 230+.

right now, i think, the main thing for those 2 is consistency. Because clean, they are 230+ material. But how clean can they be?
Alina can have some mess ups like she had last year when she used to bomb her short.
Rika is not historically a model of consistency either.

 

[xeyra]

So after NHK, the rankings based on GP scores are:

Highest GP Score

224.31 1 Rika Kihira
219.71 2 Satoko Miyahara
219.02 3 Elizaveta Tuktamysheva
215.29 4 Alina Zagitova
213.90 5 Kaori Sakamoto
206.41 6 Bradie Tennell
204.20 7 Mai Mihara
203.06 8 Mako Yamashita
198.96 9 MariahBell
198.70 10 Sofia Samodurova

There was a discussion about using average scores of the season to compare the ladies. Well, CS's shouldn't be given the same weight as a GP. I have derived a weighted average based on the ranking points ISU gives for the types of events. A challenger and a GP gives 250 points and 400 points to the winner respectively. This ratio of ranking points is consistent from places 1-5 (document-page 5). I have used this to derive two weighted averages (dashes added to align the columns):

Weighted average score 1 = Average Challenger score * (250/650) + Average GP score * (400/650)

Just a correction: a win in a Challenger competition is 300 points. 250 is for other international B competitions but if it has the CS title, a win gets 300.

 

[Spirals for Miles]

Let's do one for juniors based on JGP
1. Trusova
2-3. Shcherbakova, Kostornaya
4. Yelim - getting HUGE scores no matter what
5. Kanysheva
6. Tarakanova
7-8. Yokoi, Araki
9-10. Vasilieva, Sinitsyna

 

[yume]

right now, i think, the main thing for those 2 is consistency. Because clean, they are 230+ material. But how clean can they be?
Alina can have some mess ups like she had last year when she used to bomb her short.
Rika is not historically a model of consistency either.

Yes. Both are 16yo and are growing physically and as skaters, so consistency will be the real challenge for them this season. Even Medvedeva was not rock solid at 16yo.

 

[moriel]

Yes. Both are 16yo and are growing physically and as skaters, so consistency will be the real challenge for them this season. Even Medvedeva was not rock solid at 16yo.

Medvedeva was rock solid at 16, as solid as a skater can be.
i think she spoiled us

 

[Miller]

right now, i think, the main thing for those 2 is consistency. Because clean, they are 230+ material. But how clean can they be?
Alina can have some mess ups like she had last year when she used to bomb her short.
Rika is not historically a model of consistency either.

If push came to shove Alina could do a 3Lz-3T in her SP. It would cost 0.7 in BV whereas her 3Lz-3Lo cost her 9.86 points at Helsinki compared with Nebelhorn. Also I would have thought her 3Lz-3T would be a lot more stable than her 3Lz-3Lo, the latter now seems to be a 50/60% of the time jump, whereas I would have thought her 3Lz-3T would be a 90% of the time jump.

When it comes to the LP it would be a bit more problematic as Alina needs to be able to do a -3Lo to be able to do 2 Lutzs and 2 Flips. However there is one intriguing possibility, and that is to do a 2A-3Lo, bit like Evgenia is working on. Such a combination would allow her to keep exactly the same jumps as now, but for the loss of 0.49 in BV (10% of the -3Lo), but would in fact allow a potential increase in GOE of 0.8 marks (50% of the difference in the BV's of a 2A and 3Lo).

Of course would she be able to do it in time, plus she'd be abandoning her signature move, but her 3Lz-3Lo in the LP at Helsinki cost her 5.75 points compared with Nebelhorn, and if push comes to shove it might just be necessary, especially as Rika has just shown she's a 230+ skater.

 

[yume]

Medvedeva was rock solid at 16, as solid as a skater can be.
i think she spoiled us

She did mistakes at all her competitions but GPF, and lost a competition. But compared to Zagitova last season, she appears rock solid yes.

 

[Fluture]

I think this year‘s battle at Worlds will be between Zagitova and Kihira. And then we have Tuktamysheva and Miyahara who look rocksolid as well. Medvedeva might improve and get a bit of her old consistency back, she could be in the mix for a medal as well. Kaori looks like a strong contender too. Bradie, Sofia... Overall, the ladies competition became so much more exciting this season!

 

[jenm]

I love how Rika has woken up everyone's fire, including the posters in GS. :thumbsup:

 

[Sam-Skwantch]

I love how Rika has woken up everyone's fire, including the posters in GS. :thumbsup:

It’s true...I had hit the snooze button on the Senior GP this season. Now I’m brewing up a double espresso

 

[yume]

I love how Rika has woken up everyone's fire, including the posters in GS. :thumbsup:

Yes. Thanks to her, we don't know who will win worlds if clean, and that since the beginning of the season. And it's refreshing. Seriously.

 

[VenusHalley]

Let's do one for juniors based on JGP
1. Trusova
2-3. Shcherbakova, Kostornaya
4. Yelim - getting HUGE scores no matter what
5. Kanysheva
6. Tarakanova
7-8. Yokoi, Araki
9-10. Vasilieva, Sinitsyna

I do feel Alena is growing and moving slightly up at the moment. It's likely her PCS will skyrocket in seniors right? Can she add 3A? If so, her score will raise, but it feels she is not willing to add it unless she can do it perfectly.

Sasha's quads are awesome at all, but those falls are scary. She should learn to fall. I guess she rotates so fast she inevitable falls hard and probably tries to save it... Now she needs to work on her presentation to sell her programs... i don't mind she is doing different stuff, she is definitelly no princess, so good they are not trying to make her one... but she still is not fully selling it. She improved her stamina (at least Junior worlds she looked she will collapse from exhaustion at the end of the program.....). Can she add more quads and be consistent with them? She is right now skating to prove to herself and everybody she can do multiple quads, but will this work in the future?

 

[moriel]

I do feel Alena is growing and moving slightly up at the moment. It's likely her PCS will skyrocket in seniors right? Can she add 3A? If so, her score will raise, but it feels she is not willing to add it unless she can do it perfectly.

Sasha's quads are awesome at all, but those falls are scary. She should learn to fall. I guess she rotates so fast she inevitable falls hard and probably tries to save it... Now she needs to work on her presentation to sell her programs... i don't mind she is doing different stuff, she is definitelly no princess, so good they are not trying to make her one... but she still is not fully selling it. She improved her stamina (at least Junior worlds she looked she will collapse from exhaustion at the end of the program.....). Can she add more quads and be consistent with them? She is right now skating to prove to herself and everybody she can do multiple quads, but will this work in the future?

Why would she need to be consistent with quads?
Below, a 50% or so quad success rate

Trusova FS jump BV based at what she did at russian cup, including 1 pop (4T) and 1 fall (4Lz):
4Lz+3T 15.70
4Lz fall 11.50 -5.75 GOE -1.00 deduction
2T 1.30
2A 3.30
3Lz+3Lo x 11.88
3Lz+1Eu+3S x 11.77
3F x 5.83
Total: 54,53

Shcherbakova's FS jump BV from russian cup:
4Lz+3T 15.70
4Lz< fall 8.63 -4.32 GOE -1.00 deduction
2A 3.30
2A 3.30
3Lz+3Lo x 11.88
3F+1Eu+3S x 11.11
3Lz x 6.49
Total: 55,09

And now for comparison, no quads, some top senior ladies jump BV:
(3A's, but no quads) Rika Kihira FS jump BV at NHK:
3A+3T 12.20
3A 8.00
3Lo 4.90
3Lz+2T 7.20
3F x 5.83
3Lz+2T+2Lo x 9.79
3S x 4.73
Total: 52,65

(Your average top lady BV without 3A/Quad) Zagitova FS jump BV at Nebelhorn:
2A 3.30
3Lz+3T 10.10
3S 4.30
2A 3.30
3Lz+3Lo x 11.88
3F+2T+2Lo x 9.13
3F x 5.83
Total: 47,84

Both Trusova (fall and pop) and Shcherbakova (fall and UR) scored 150+ domestically in FS. Thats some 135+ / 140+ internationally.

 

[colormyworld240]

I'd have Alina and Rika neck and neck for first, even though Alina has higher average scoring based on whatever weighting system you use. Because Rika has proven she can score high, and that's not even at her scoring potential yet. I do believe her PCS will rise by more than a few points if she continues to be consistent. Both 16 and probably still growing and both prone being inconsistent (although I'd argue any senior who does layouts like those would be somewhat inconsistent). I love that there is huge risk/reward for them; keeps it very interesting.

Then I'd have Satoko and Liza just under, probably Satoko higher as she's finally getting deserved PCS. Not sure if her jump GOE will hold at other competitions, especially in comparison to Lizas - I think they got similar GOEs for their passes at NHK? Liza would really benefit from a layout that maximizes her BV especially since she has a 3A. She could do an 8 triple (?) FP if she gets her 3F back, instead of having 2As.