2018-19 U.S. Ladies' figure skating

chuckm

Record Breaker
Joined
Aug 31, 2003
I think Wagner will retire? Or maybe take a hiatus and comeback later?

Ashley turns 27 in May. If she doesn't come back for the 2018-19 season, how much of a skater will be left after 1-1/2 seasons away? Patrick Chan took one season off, was only 24 when he returned, yet he wasn't quite able to return to his previous ascendancy and kept slipping further back as the years went by. I can't imagine that Ashley, who struggled with the 3/3, 3z! and URs at 26, would be able to overcome those deficits at 28.
 

likevelvet

#Bless this mess
On the Ice
Joined
Feb 13, 2018
Country
United-States
Idk, if Gracie were to make a comeback, it would have to be in the 2019-2020 season, which would put her in the position of having to fight against skaters like Kostornaia on top of Zagitova, Medvedeva, Osmond, ecc ecc. Gracie was such a powerhouse, but I think coming back now would be sooooo difficult. I hope she gives it a try though!

Not gonna lie... I was never the biggest Gracie fan, but it would be so incredible to see her come back to competing after what she went through vis a vis her mental/health struggles. I really support her and would love to see what she can do after reworking what was ailing her.... it would be such a cool story of overcoming what was holding her back. What's more "American woman" than that? :)
 

ice coverage

avatar credit: @miyan5605
Record Breaker
Joined
Feb 27, 2012
Expected USFS funding for next season, per 2018-19 envelope criteria (assuming no retirements among the following):

Envelope A, Tier 2:
- Bradie Tennell, 2018 U.S. senior champion
- Mirai Nagasu, Worlds 10th

Envelope B, Tier 1
- Mariah Bell, Worlds 12th
- Karen Chen, Nats 3rd
- Ashley Wagner, Nats 4th

Envelope B, Tier 2
- Starr Andrews, Nats 6th
- Angela Wang, OWG third alternate

Envelope C, Tier 1
- Amber Glenn, Nats 8th
- Alysa Liu, 2018 U.S. Junior Champion

Envelope C, Tier 2
- Courtney Hicks, Challenger 3rd (Warsaw Cup)
- Ting Cui, Junior Worlds 7th
- Emmy Ma, Junior Worlds 19th
- Pooja Kalyan, Nats (junior) 2nd

Envelope D, Tier 1
- Hanna Harrell, Nats (junior) 4th
- Emily Zhang, Nats (junior) 5th
- Gabriella Izzo, Nats (junior) 6th

Envelope D, Tier 2
- Beverly Zhu, Nats (novice) 1st
- Emilea Zingas, Nats (novice) 2nd
- Violeta Ushakova, Nats (novice) 3rd​

Reference links for placements:

Corrections welcome.
 

chuckm

Record Breaker
Joined
Aug 31, 2003
From what I understand, Gracie is coaching now and she is not returning to competition, however much so many of her fans would like to see her come back. :sad21:
 

AshWagsFan

Edges for days.
Final Flight
Joined
Oct 14, 2017
Country
United-States
Ashley turns 27 in May. If she doesn't come back for the 2018-19 season, how much of a skater will be left after 1-1/2 seasons away? Patrick Chan took one season off, was only 24 when he returned, yet he wasn't quite able to return to his previous ascendancy and kept slipping further back as the years went by. I can't imagine that Ashley, who struggled with the 3/3, 3z! and URs at 26, would be able to overcome those deficits at 28.

You never know, Kostner was out for 2 seasons and came back at 29 and received a lot of technical help from a new coach, maybe Ashley should go to someone different?
 

withwings

On the Ice
Joined
Jan 5, 2014
You never know, Kostner was out for 2 seasons and came back at 29 and received a lot of technical help from a new coach, maybe Ashley should go to someone different?

IMHO change of coach and environment would be of great help to her.
I do not think it is going to happen though.
 

klutzy

On the Ice
Joined
Feb 18, 2014
Yeah, I don't see Gracie coming back. She looks great, but she'd have to lose weight to be competitive and that sounds like a very dangerous cycle for her. I loved her great skates--the power and grace of her jumps, but not at the cost of her health and mental well-being. I'm glad that she's found a way to stay in the skating world.
 

Noxchild

Medalist
Joined
Feb 14, 2018
Country
Canada
Do people know what kind of funding the skaters in various envelopes get? Like, what does Bradie get vs Karen vs Angela?
 

concorde

Medalist
Joined
Jul 29, 2013
Under the USFS system, Alysa Liu is a Junior not a Novice. Potentially she could be competing as USFS Senior this upcoming season.

But she is not age eligible to compete internationally as a Junior. So internationally she is a Novice.
 

chuckm

Record Breaker
Joined
Aug 31, 2003
You never know, Kostner was out for 2 seasons and came back at 29 and received a lot of technical help from a new coach, maybe Ashley should go to someone different?

Kostner is a former World champion, 5-time World medalist and individual Olympic medalwinner. She has stood on the European podium every time she has competed there since 2006, including 5 European championships. Her strong suit is exceptional presentation coupled with her textbook basic skating skills: she doesn't flutz or lip and rarely underrotates her jumps. But even the best coaching in the world could not bring back a Kostner who could consistently land a 3z and 3f+3t or even 3t+3t. She had good results this year, but not the Olympic and World medals she really wanted.

Ashley at her prime was an excellent (but not outstanding) performer who worked hard to rotate her 3/3 and try to take off the lutz on an outside edge. She reached her peak in 2016 when she won silver at Worlds. Since then, her skating has deteriorated and so have her results. Time off will not have improved her skills or make her more competitive at 27 or 28, and even the best coaching can't revive the skills she had at 24. And even those skills are probably not competitive in the current environment.
 

andromache

Record Breaker
Joined
Mar 23, 2014
You never know, Kostner was out for 2 seasons and came back at 29 and received a lot of technical help from a new coach, maybe Ashley should go to someone different?

Carolina always had strong skating skills and technially sound (if inconsistent) jumps from a young age. She had a great foundation that she could rely on. Ashley doesn't have that, and I think she went as far as she possibly could with such a weak jumping/skating foundation.
 

oatmella

陈巍
Record Breaker
Joined
Feb 23, 2014
I don’t see Ashley continuing or making a comeback later. Looks like she is exploring other career options and I’m sure she will get some good opportunities. Raf said he wished she had a better skating foundation - and I think she had a great career even though she lacked some things.
I wish I could have seen La La Land again though and I thought she looked so gorgeous in the lavender dress at Nationals.
 

MarinHondas

Final Flight
Joined
Aug 29, 2016
I think we and usfsa need to start looking at girls who have the potential to land quads and triple axels and start getting them the resources they need to do so. If you look at both Russia and Japan it seems that quads will soon be apart of ladies figure skating and we can’t lag behind like we did for so long in the men’s field.
I think Bradie may have potential to land 4sal or even 3a, she needs a bit more height but she’s a quick rotator.
Mirai, if she’s planning on sticking around, just needs to get that 3a more consistent and work on 3a-3t combos.
Ting Cui definitely has potential for 4sal, 4toe and 3a!!!!
Alysa Liu could land 4sal and get her 3a clean too.
I hope USFSA starts putting emphasis on this now. Before it’s too late.
 

oatmella

陈巍
Record Breaker
Joined
Feb 23, 2014
I think we and usfsa need to start looking at girls who have the potential to land quads and triple axels and start getting them the resources they need to do so. If you look at both Russia and Japan it seems that quads will soon be apart of ladies figure skating and we can’t lag behind like we did for so long in the men’s field.
I think Bradie may have potential to land 4sal or even 3a, she needs a bit more height but she’s a quick rotator.
Mirai, if she’s planning on sticking around, just needs to get that 3a more consistent and work on 3a-3t combos.
Ting Cui definitely has potential for 4sal, 4toe and 3a!!!!
Alysa Liu could land 4sal and get her 3a clean too.
I hope USFSA starts putting emphasis on this now. Before it’s too late.

All these quads seem so risky for young girls though. They’re already risky for men! Sasha Trusova is 13 (I think), already has 2 quads and just landed a 4lutz! Hard to compete with this unfortunately.
 

MarinHondas

Final Flight
Joined
Aug 29, 2016
All these quads seem so risky for young girls though. They’re already risky for men! Sasha Trusova is 13 (I think), already has 2 quads and just landed a 4lutz! Hard to compete with this unfortunately.

Hard to compete, yes. That’s why we need to start focusing on it now instead of two years after Trusova is already in senior.
 

chuckm

Record Breaker
Joined
Aug 31, 2003
Who knows if Trusova will still be skating two years from now, or even if she is, if she is still able to do those jumps once she has grown into a woman's body.

What is relatively easy for 13 and 14 yos with undeveloped bodies is a challenge once the center of gravity drops to the hips. And all that practice devoted to trying to do the jumps with a new body can incur damage to the hip similar to what happened to Alissa Czisny, Tara Lipinski and Naomi Nari Nam. That is a career-ending injury, at least for competitive skating. Lipinski had an OGM to compensate for her injury. But today, those who incur that same injury at her same age will never even get the opportunity to compete at the Olympics.
 

evasorange

Final Flight
Joined
Jan 22, 2015
Age thirteen to age 15, your body goes through changes so we'll see if the quads hold up. And even then from
15 to 17 will bring more changes so even if she is still able to do quads at first it will be very challenging to hold on to that ability as a senior. I’m not too worried about it tbh
 

SnowWhite

Record Breaker
Joined
Nov 30, 2016
Country
Canada
Age thirteen to age 15, your body goes through changes so we'll see if the quads hold up. And even then from
15 to 17 will bring more changes so even if she is still able to do quads at first it will be very challenging to hold on to that ability as a senior. I’m not too worried about it tbh

Even without quads though, she's got strong jumps and very high base value. Her jump technique is good and her jumps are pretty high - she doesn't just rely on fast rotation. She can do a fully backloaded program repeating 3Lz and 3F. So if she loses the quads, she'll still be technically stronger than the US girls right now.
 

klutzy

On the Ice
Joined
Feb 18, 2014
Midori Ito and Tonya Harding were both doing Triple Axels 30 years ago, but 3As have never become a standard element for Ladies and I expect something similar with quads. It takes a lot of practice time and speed to get those jumps and that seems to come at the cost of some of the other elements.

The U.S. needs ladies who can fully rotate their triples and are consistent in competition. That, more than a jumping arms race, will pull them up in international standings.
 

bubblecherry

Final Flight
Joined
Feb 20, 2018
Bradie and Karen both said in a press conference that they'd like work on their 3a after seeing Mirai get hers. I think Bradie could possibly get hers. Karen's jumps are big enough but she'd have to work on not delaying her rotation. Will they? I don't know. I could definitely image Bradie pushing her technical elements. They both need to do something in order to be more competitive with the top ladies.

Of course the novice and juniors girls should be working on being able to be competitive with their peers (but not at the risk of their wellbeing-- wherever that line is)
 
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