MTM / M need some big tricks maybe a throw quad sal and some amazing sbs jumps and then get a program then can sell.
The changes to the scoring system post-2018 have made the throw and twist quads not especially significant, which is why you don't see anybody doing them anymore.
In one of their recent interviews KMT said she'd like to upgrade to a throw Lutz or flip at some point, but that there wasn't any time to do that this summer as they were focused on other things (especially improving their twist, which they did).
While it would be good to upgrade, their key to success is largely to be doing what they did at Nebelhorn and skate cleanly. They actually have some of the stronger SBS jumps among the top pairs in terms of reliability, and that does count for something. One of their best moments as a team was right after one of their worst, at
2016 Nationals, after that disaster twist attempt -- they got up and then skated right down to the other end of the rink for the SBS jumps, and I remember thinking that they didn't have a prayer of landing those after such a bad mistake on the twist, but they did.
Even if they ever land their jumps, I don't believe the Kneirms are even close to the quality of MT/M, imo.
The Knierims' elements, when executed properly, score higher than KMT/Marinaro's do. If you look at the Nebelhorn results, for instance, in
the short program the Knierims actually won the TES despite the SBS jump fall. In
the free skate, the Knierims' non-SBS elements were worth 61.11 TES, whereas MT/M's non-SBS elements were 57.50; the biggest difference being in the twist. The TES difference-maker was that MT/M's jumps were worth 12.21 points, while the Knierims' popped combination and hand-down second jump were worth only 4.93. MT/M won the PCS in both programs too, of course, given that all of the Knierims' jumps in both programs were flawed and that impacts performance quality. But if the Knierims skated without mistakes on the jumps, the numbers strongly indicate that they would win. Which is that team's particular challenge, since the jumps so regularly go awry.
As far as MT/M's assignments, at SCI one would assume that Tarasova/Morozov will win (as long as the US Classic was just an altitude fluke). MT/M can certainly come second there, though Boikova/Kozlovskii will be a real fight, as would the Knierims if they got it together.
NHK would at one point have been the tougher assignment, but with James/Cipres' withdrawal the pressure is lessened. Sui/Han, of course, favourites for gold. Della Monica/Guarise, the Knierims (again), and the newly-senior Mishina/Galliamov are all worthy opponents, but the Italians have had difficulties over the summer so as yet it's unclear what shape they're going to be in; the Knierims' issues have already been gone over.
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