Realistically, Rostelecom is in Russia. It looks to me as if they want an all-Russian podium and that is going to make things tough for Nam.
Men's skating usually comes down to what jumps you land, in the end, even with home field advantages. Ignatov, most obviously, did not receive any markedly unusual scores compared to Nam; he's (very marginally) ahead because he had two quads and Nam only had one, and lost the PCS by almost the same margin that he won the TES. Samarin's PCS is definitely silly, in my opinion, but he gets that everywhere.
By the same token, though, we saw at Nebelhorn that Ignatov can be pretty good at landing those jumps. Nam has a narrow base value advantage, I believe, but he doesn't tend to get huge GOEs. Though, again, men's skating, in all likelihood at least one of them will not skate especially well.
Depending on what happens with Shoma, in particular, a viable option for Nam might be to finish fourth, which would give him 2+4. As long as Aymoz didn't win silver (or gold, but, c'mon, Hanyu is getting that) at NHK the following week he would make it in due to having a silver medal in any tiebreakers with people with multiple bronze medals.