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small nitpick: Canada doesn't have a TBA spot for dance, they already selected 3 teams (Gilles/Poirier, Lajoie/Lagha, Sales/Wamsteeker)
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Ice dance events ranked by Gadbois-iness:
1. 6/9 (67%), Cup of China
2-3 (tie). 5/9 (56%), Skate America / Internationaux de France
4. 5/10 (50%), NHK Trophy
5. 4/10 (40%), Skate Canada International
6. 1/9 (11%), Rostelecom Cup (zut alors!)
I’m trying to do the alternate lists :
For each replacement, the alternate has to be chosen between the 10 best ranked skaters available, of course if they don’t already compete in the same GP and if there are not already 3 entries from the same country as the alternate. So the alternate list will be different for each replacement, especially for the ladies where 5 of the top10 alternates are russian and can only replace another russian skater.
(In brackets, the position on the Season’s Best 75 list)
Men
etc
Dolensky retired this summer. He is doing ice shows on a ship cruise. ...
small nitpick: Canada doesn't have a TBA spot for dance, they already selected 3 teams (Gilles/Poirier, Lajoie/Lagha, Sales/Wamsteeker)
Dolensky retired this summer. He is doing ice shows on a ship cruise.
I think Alexander Johnson also retired. But I had to check if he made an explicit announcement. Anyway, he is not on USFSA International Pool.
I guess Marina Piredda may do JGP. She was born on 28.09.2002
Manta/Johnson retired. They are doing Cirque du Soleil now.
The most likely answer is because Hawayek & Baker have two guaranteed berths. They don't need a host spot right now. They did in the past when they were ranked 4th and 5th at Nationals, and they were given a host berth at SA twice when they were in that position. They were a medal threat on the GP at the time so other countries didn't want to invite them, and SA gave them the spot. They will probably get one again in the future (most likely at some point when it might clearly help them make the GPF). But they don't need it right now because they have the guaranteed berths.
The young teams need them, and they are hard to place with non-host invites right now because both McNamara & Carpenter and Carreira & Ponomarenko have GP medals from last season but no guaranteed second spots because they couldn't go to Worlds. Their records make them an additional unseeded and non-mandatory threat at every dance event on the GP. They are a problem at SC for Lajoie & Lagha, in France for Lauriault & Le Gac, in Russia for Skoptcova & Aleshin, in China for Wang & Liu. The only exception isn't really an exception. They are obviously a problem for Komatsubara & Koleto at NHK also. But everyone NHK invites will be a problem for K&K so Japan really doesn't have much of anything to lose by inviting the young U.S. teams. So it is not at all surprising that C&P and M&C ended up there.
H&B had the second SA spot two years ago. M&C had it last season. So C&P get it this season.
And Green & Parsons (a team made up of one U.S. Junior Champion and one medalist on last year's GP) get a good shot at a second GP spot.
As far as Hawayek & Baker are concerned, their best results have actually always happened at NHK rather than SA anyway. I don't think they would necessarily be better off in this particular field at SA with Hubbell & Donohue, Stepanova & Bukin, and Zagorski & Guerreiro there. They lost to Z&G at the GPF last season. It's tough this season for H&B going up against Fournier-Beaudry & Sorenson, but H&B did defeat them in both matches last year. In the end, you probably learn more and make a stronger argument for yourself competing away from home than you do at home anyway. The goal is not to win at the start of the season. It's to win at the end of it.
Why no US ice dance invitation to Rostelecom?
Presumably because the Russian Federation wants their own dance teams to do as well as possible.
One spot for the NHK Trophy (Ladies) is currently marked TBD, which would be taken by Marin Honda or Yuhana Yokoi. Both of them are very promising young skaters who should get a chance to go to the Grand Prix Final by fulfilling two GP assignments.
JPN : Shimada is the obvious choice if he doesn’t get a 2nd GP as alternate. If he does so, the choice is open : Nakamura, Hino or Sato ?
Don't forget Mitsuki Sumoto who has just turned senior and has a JGP silver. But Hiroaki had a nice result at the universiade, so he might be considered too. The other two don't stand a chance IMO. And there's always the possibility that Daisuke does well enough in an international competition to get selected.
Daisuke seems the obvious choice if he’s able to get the minimums.
Daisuke seems the obvious choice if he’s able to get the minimums.