2019-20 Russian Ladies' Figure Skating

[Jontor]

Hey guys, I'm bored and I can't sleep because Anna's dress snatched my weave. So I did a calculation of everyone's BV (as presented today, and as predicted for how it's supposed to be, for those who weren't clean). Note: No accounting for UR.


Evgenia Medvedeva
Layout (Delivered): 3Lz2T2T, 3S3Lo, 3Lz, A // 2A (fall), 3F (step), 3Lo
Layout (Predicted): 3Lz2T2T, 3S3Lo, 3Lz, 2A // 2A3T, 3F, 3Lo
Jump Base Value (Delivered): 38.45
Jump Base Value (Predicted): 46.37

Elizaveta Tuktamysheva
Layout (Delivered): 3A2T, 3A, 3Lz, 3F // 2A3T2T, 3Lz+REP, 3Lo
Layout (Predicted, I Tried My Best But I Don't Know What She's Doing): 3A2T, 3A, 3Lz, 3F // 2A3T2T, 3Lz2A, 3Lo
Jump Base Value (Delivered): 48.11
Jump Base Value (Predicted): 51.67

Sofia Samodurova
Layout (Delivered): 3F, 3Lz, 3Lo, 3F+REP (fall) // 2A3T, 3S, 2A
Layout (Predicted, I Just Based it on Last Year): 3F3T, 3Lz, 3Lo, 3F // 2A3T, 3S, 2A2T2T
Jump Base Value (Delivered): 36.42
Jump Base Value (Predicted): 45.07

Stanislava Konstantinova
Layout (Delivered): 2A3T, 3F (step), 3F2T, 3Lo // 3Lz1Eu3S, 2A, 2Lz
Layout (Predicted): 2A3T, 3F2T, 3F, 3Lo // 3Lz1Eu3S, 2A, 3Lz
Jump Base Value (Delivered): 42.01
Jump Base Value (Predicted): 46.19

Alina Zagitova
Layout: 3Lz3Lo, 2A3T, 3S, 2A // 3F2T2Lo, 3Lz, 3F
Jump Base Value: 47.46

Anna Shcherbakova
Layout: 4Lz (fall), 3F3Lo, 2A, 2A // 3Lz3T, 3F1Eu3S, 3Lz
Jump Base Value: 57.01

Alexandra Trusova
Layout: 4Lz, 4T3T, 4T, 2A // 3Lz3Lo (fall), 3Lz1Eu3S, 3F
Jump Base Value: 67.48

Alena Kostornaia
Layout: 2A, 3Lz2T, 3Lo, 2A // 3F3T, 3F1Eu3S, 3Lz (step)
Jump Base Value: 46.75


Ranking of Base Value (Delivered):

(1) Alexandra Trusova 67.48
(2) Anna Shcherbakova 57.01
(3) Elizaveta Tuktamysheva 48.11
(4) Alina Zagitova 47.46
(5) Alena Kostornaia 46.75
(6) Stanislava Konstantinova 42.01
(7) Evgenia Medvedeva 38.45
(8) Sofia Samodurova 36.42


Ranking of Base Value (Predicted):
(1) Alexandra Trusova 67.48
(2) Anna Shcherbakova 57.01
(3) Elizaveta Tuktamysheva 51.67
(4) Alina Zagitova 47.46
(5) Alena Kostornaia 46.75
(6) Evgenia Medvedeva 46.37
(7) Stanislava Konstantinova 46.19
(8) Sofia Samodurova 45.07

Takeaways:

(1) I didn't realise Liza was throwing THAT many points away with the nonsensical layout. Of course, my predicted layout could be entirely wrong but I don't know what else could work - she's missing one jump, and I have to assume that was for the second 3Lz because that was the one weird landing in the whole program. She can't repeat 3T because of the Zayak rule, she can't do 1Eu3S because she's already used her 3 jump combo...it's a mess. Also, her jump layout is missing a 3S completely and she jumps an additional 2A. Can someone please help her with her layout? I thought she would be ahead of or at least tied with Anna, but she isn't because of the silly layout.

(2) Assuming all skate clean, Alina, Alena, Evgenia, Stasya and Sofia all are very very close in BV now. Especially the middle three. Interesting.

(3) Sasha's BV. Oh lawd she comin.

Very interesting. With those BVs it means that Anna can beat Liza even if she falls on her 4Lz?
I think Liza improvised a lot today. Maybe she was supposed to do 3F+Eu+3S but missed it, so she added a 2T on 2A+3T. And then added another 3Lz at the end instead of another 3F... We'll see next week how she fixes this mess.

 

[colormyworld240]

Very interesting. With those BVs it means that Anna can beat Liza even if she falls on her 4Lz?
I think Liza improvised a lot today. Maybe she was supposed to do 3F+Eu+3S but missed it, so she added a 2T on 2A+3T. And then added another 3Lz at the end instead of another 3F... We'll see next week how she fixes this mess.

I think highly possible. Anna is miles ahead in CO, IN, PE, TR. And her SS I would say are on par with Liza's or better, and she's much fast. Her spins are also miles better (good job Anna for fixing them). No one can compare with Liza's jump technique, but her layout is dumb (who came up with this) and she is very slow going into her jumps with little transitions (also factor in GOE). I think Anna has a good chance at coming out on top, provided the rotes the 4Lz (even with a fall) and doesn't have other mistakes.

 

[SXTN]

(1) I didn't realise Liza was throwing THAT many points away with the nonsensical layout. Of course, my predicted layout could be entirely wrong but I don't know what else could work - she's missing one jump, and I have to assume that was for the second 3Lz because that was the one weird landing in the whole program. She can't repeat 3T because of the Zayak rule, she can't do 1Eu3S because she's already used her 3 jump combo...it's a mess. Also, her jump layout is missing a 3S completely and she jumps an additional 2A. Can someone please help her with her layout? I thought she would be ahead of or at least tied with Anna, but she isn't because of the silly layout.
.

Yes, don't mind. Mishin/Liza have been leaving points on the table for years. The funniest layout was when she brought back her triple axel: They included the 3A and took out the second 3Lz. They left two 2A's in the program though...

I think Mishin still refuses to calculate points according to that "stupid new ISU points system".

 

[Tolstoj]

(1) I didn't realise Liza was throwing THAT many points away with the nonsensical layout. Of course, my predicted layout could be entirely wrong but I don't know what else could work - she's missing one jump, and I have to assume that was for the second 3Lz because that was the one weird landing in the whole program. She can't repeat 3T because of the Zayak rule, she can't do 1Eu3S because she's already used her 3 jump combo...it's a mess. Also, her jump layout is missing a 3S completely and she jumps an additional 2A. Can someone please help her with her layout? I thought she would be ahead of or at least tied with Anna, but she isn't because of the silly layout.

(2) Assuming all skate clean, Alina, Alena, Evgenia, Stasya and Sofia all are very very close in BV now. Especially the middle three. Interesting.

(3) Sasha's BV. Oh lawd she comin.

It's an interesting analysis but keep in mind that often coaches deliberately decide not to show the full program with the whole layout at this event where there are no scores so no need to do combos left and right.

Eteri is all about the full runthroughs all the time, so the program you see here is 99% the program you will see in the season, while other coaches like Mishin, or Raf in particular care about the longevity so earlier in the season at these events or the senior Bs they don't force skaters to show the programs with all the triples in place.

I remember the same exact drama last season with Elizaveta. "she only did 3ltz-2t so the 3a is useless because she still keeps only 7 triples!" when really the 3ltz-3t was in the works, just she didn't want to show it there. (she did a couple of events later if i remember correctly)

Anyway they are not stupid, they know the Zayak rule. My guess is that she will turn the first 3a-2t into 3a-2a sequence and then one of the two lutzes will be in a 3-3 combo.

Also i'm pretty sure you can do two 3t and two 2t, Maria Talalaikina did it last season, she had:

3ltz-3t
2a-3t-2t
3ltz-2t

 

[Edwin]

Eteri is all about the full runthroughs all the time, so the program you see here is 99% the program you will see in the season, while other coaches like Mishin, or Raf in particular care about the longevity so earlier in the season at these events or the senior Bs they don't force skaters to show the programs with all the triples in place.

Still, #TeamTutberidzeForProgress laid down the gauntlet for the others to follow. And their skaters performed with full conviction. We'll see from next week how things evolve. It is going to be very interesting.

 

[Tolstoj]

Still, #TeamTutberidzeForProgress laid down the gauntlet for the others to follow. And their skaters performed with full conviction. We'll see from next week how things evolve. It is going to be very interesting.

Oh Eteri has already won the mind game, it's crystal clear and her senior skaters showed up in great form (unlike the juniors). She is very much leading Ladies Figure Skating, with the others following.

For me the only one who is a bit of a question mark is Medvedeva: last season she ended on a high note and good for her but the rest was messy.

She needs to show that consistency again, and possibly with more difficult contents, her FS in particular isn't particularly challenging compared to the others.

She has the reputation and the endorsement from influential people like Tarasova but if she bombs her GP season and nationals again, i don't think RusFed should give it to her again.

 

[Amei]

Oh Eteri has already won the mind game, it's crystal clear and her senior skaters showed up in great form (unlike the juniors). She is very much leading Ladies Figure Skating, with the others following.

For me the only one who is a bit of a question mark is Medvedeva: last season she ended on a high note and good for her but the rest was messy.

She needs to show that consistency again, and possibly with more difficult contents, her FS in particular isn't particularly challenging compared to the others.

She has the reputation and the endorsement from influential people like Tarasova but if she bombs her GP season and nationals again, i don't think RusFed should give it to her again.

Given the talent of the current field just based off test skates, I feel like reputation isn't going to get someone a spot on the team; if someone bombs nationals I don't think we see them getting a shot at Europeans and probably Worlds unless they absolutely crush everyone at the Russian Cup Final. I wonder how they are going to handle assigning those teams, its a little depressing that only 3 of these ladies will go to Europeans and Worlds.

 

[nussnacker]

I think Liza would really benefit this content:
3A2T, 3A, 3Lz, 3F // 3S-2T-2Lo, 3Lz-3T, 3Lo
Jumps wise BV would be close to Rika's content last year, the difference would be in stsq and spins only.
Liza really needs more combo variety, it would help her a lot.
Lz-T needs to go in the short, a very beautiful combo by Liza and it's money. They need to work on making it more consistent.

 

[AsadaFanBoy]

=0 =0 =0

Alinochka really surprised me. She's working really hard to get the PCS and if she gets them this season, it should be much bigger than last year. And she's the reigning world champ...so...ladies watch out.

Sasha. =0 =0 =0. Yes. All of that. Yes. The field has been put on notice. She's taking names and kicking asses.

Anya was my favorite. I don't know why, she just was. She needs two more quads to stay competitive with Sasha but that was just superb even with the fall.

Aliona seems to have improved from the time off, so good for her.

Stay healthy ladies! You'll need your health for the bloodbath that is the Grand Prix season.

 

[nussnacker]

Is it just me, or did Alyona's jumps look VERY big? 2A has a lot more height, looks like works on 3A have been going on behind the scenes.
But beside 2A, her 3F and 3Lz have improved a ton in height and distance, and those jumps were already amazing last year too.

 

[vesperalvioletta]

Maybe this is just wishful thinking on my part because I'm such a big Alyona fan, but I kind of think she has the ability to beat some of the heavy-hitters on GOE alone. Obviously, she's not going to overtake a clean Trusova, but even with her comparably easier tech, she's capable of being a +4 and +5 skater on just about all of her elements. If the judges get behind her, I think she could be a worthy opponent.

 

[SkateSkates]

Maybe this is just wishful thinking on my part because I'm such a big Alyona fan, but I kind of think she has the ability to beat some of the heavy-hitters on GOE alone. Obviously, she's not going to overtake a clean Trusova, but even with her comparably easier tech, she's capable of being a +4 and +5 skater on just about all of her elements. If the judges get behind her, I think she could be a worthy opponent.

She can rack up a lot of points with GOE if she skates clean, but needs to improve her stsq in both programs. I feel like she’s been tentative in her steps ever since she fell at nationals last season and this could hurt her in both levels (not enough full body movement for level 4) and GOE.

 

[lusterfan]

Maybe this is just wishful thinking on my part because I'm such a big Alyona fan, but I kind of think she has the ability to beat some of the heavy-hitters on GOE alone. Obviously, she's not going to overtake a clean Trusova, but even with her comparably easier tech, she's capable of being a +4 and +5 skater on just about all of her elements. If the judges get behind her, I think she could be a worthy opponent.

I sure hope we see her get her deserved PCS and GOE advantage. Judges seem hesitant to do that though :noshake:

 

[colormyworld240]

Maybe this is just wishful thinking on my part because I'm such a big Alyona fan, but I kind of think she has the ability to beat some of the heavy-hitters on GOE alone. Obviously, she's not going to overtake a clean Trusova, but even with her comparably easier tech, she's capable of being a +4 and +5 skater on just about all of her elements. If the judges get behind her, I think she could be a worthy opponent.

Isn't air position one of the major bullet points for jump GOEs, though? I think she has one of the loosest positions of all the top ladies and the leg wrap isn't great. Especially on the Lz/F/A. She has the height and distance, but she really needs to fix that to deserve the +4/+5. The top skaters are so close in scoring potential that everyone seems to be working on the little issues. Anna seems to have fixed her spins, and you can tell Sasha is working on hers. Hopefully Alena can work on that because it's so distracting.

 

[nussnacker]

Isn't air position one of the major bullet points for jump GOEs, though? I think she has one of the loosest positions of all the top ladies and the leg wrap isn't great. Especially on the Lz/F/A. She has the height and distance, but she really needs to fix that to deserve the +4/+5. The top skaters are so close in scoring potential that everyone seems to be working on the little issues. Anna seems to have fixed her spins, and you can tell Sasha is working on hers. Hopefully Alena can work on that because it's so distracting.

I actually think it suits her. I like her leg wrap.

 

[colormyworld240]

I actually think it suits her. I like her leg wrap.

But that's not the definition of good air position. I think good technique accounts for tightness in the air - someone correct me if I'm wrong. I think it's technical and not stylistic?

 

[vesperalvioletta]

Isn't air position one of the major bullet points for jump GOEs, though? I think she has one of the loosest positions of all the top ladies and the leg wrap isn't great. Especially on the Lz/F/A. She has the height and distance, but she really needs to fix that to deserve the +4/+5. The top skaters are so close in scoring potential that everyone seems to be working on the little issues. Anna seems to have fixed her spins, and you can tell Sasha is working on hers. Hopefully Alena can work on that because it's so distracting.

Body position isn't a requirement to get at least +3 GOE, but it does come into play beyond that. I don't think the leg wrap is quite as bad on her combinations as it used to be, but yeah, that 2A is leg wrap central. I almost wish that she had her 3A back because it's so much tighter in the air Judges still threw +4 and +5 at her in juniors though, so I have no clue what'll happen in seniors.

 

[Amei]

Hey guys, I'm bored and I can't sleep because Anna's dress snatched my weave. So I did a calculation of everyone's BV (as presented today, and as predicted for how it's supposed to be, for those who weren't clean). Note: No accounting for UR.


Evgenia Medvedeva
Layout (Delivered): 3Lz2T2T, 3S3Lo, 3Lz, A // 2A (fall), 3F (step), 3Lo
Layout (Predicted): 3Lz2T2T, 3S3Lo, 3Lz, 2A // 2A3T, 3F, 3Lo
Jump Base Value (Delivered): 38.45
Jump Base Value (Predicted): 46.37

Elizaveta Tuktamysheva
Layout (Delivered): 3A2T, 3A, 3Lz, 3F // 2A3T2T, 3Lz+REP, 3Lo
Layout (Predicted, I Tried My Best But I Don't Know What She's Doing): 3A2T, 3A, 3Lz, 3F // 2A3T2T, 3Lz2A, 3Lo
Jump Base Value (Delivered): 48.11
Jump Base Value (Predicted): 51.67

Sofia Samodurova
Layout (Delivered): 3F, 3Lz, 3Lo, 3F+REP (fall) // 2A3T, 3S, 2A
Layout (Predicted, I Just Based it on Last Year): 3F3T, 3Lz, 3Lo, 3F // 2A3T, 3S, 2A2T2T
Jump Base Value (Delivered): 36.42
Jump Base Value (Predicted): 45.07

Stanislava Konstantinova
Layout (Delivered): 2A3T, 3F (step), 3F2T, 3Lo // 3Lz1Eu3S, 2A, 2Lz
Layout (Predicted): 2A3T, 3F2T, 3F, 3Lo // 3Lz1Eu3S, 2A, 3Lz
Jump Base Value (Delivered): 42.01
Jump Base Value (Predicted): 46.19

Alina Zagitova
Layout: 3Lz3Lo, 2A3T, 3S, 2A // 3F2T2Lo, 3Lz, 3F
Jump Base Value: 47.46

Anna Shcherbakova
Layout: 4Lz (fall), 3F3Lo, 2A, 2A // 3Lz3T, 3F1Eu3S, 3Lz
Jump Base Value: 57.01

Alexandra Trusova
Layout: 4Lz, 4T3T, 4T, 2A // 3Lz3Lo (fall), 3Lz1Eu3S, 3F
Jump Base Value: 67.48

Alena Kostornaia
Layout: 2A, 3Lz2T, 3Lo, 2A // 3F3T, 3F1Eu3S, 3Lz (step)
Jump Base Value: 46.75

Ranking of Base Value (Predicted):
(1) Alexandra Trusova 67.48
(2) Anna Shcherbakova 57.01
(3) Elizaveta Tuktamysheva 51.67
(4) Alina Zagitova 47.46
(5) Alena Kostornaia 46.75
(6) Evgenia Medvedeva 46.37
(7) Stanislava Konstantinova 46.19
(8) Sofia Samodurova 45.07

I wonder if Shcherbakova will add a 2T or 3T after 1 of her 2A's, it seems odd to do the 2A back-to-back as a solo jump, she's got the stamina to do it and it would bump up her technical score closer to Trusova's and help in the event she falls on the quad lutz.

 

[katymay]

Isn't air position one of the major bullet points for jump GOEs, though? I think she has one of the loosest positions of all the top ladies and the leg wrap isn't great. Especially on the Lz/F/A. She has the height and distance, but she really needs to fix that to deserve the +4/+5. The top skaters are so close in scoring potential that everyone seems to be working on the little issues. Anna seems to have fixed her spins, and you can tell Sasha is working on hers. Hopefully Alena can work on that because it's so distracting.

My understanding is leg wrap can't count against a skater. It is a style, a preference. As long as the jump is rotated, and the wrap isn't so excessive that it ruins the jump, I think it is ignored.

 

[Sam-Skwantch]

Wow...took a few minutes to watch Sasha’s FS today. Such a good program IMO. It’s a perfect blend of athleticism and meticulous attention to detail with a clear vision of artistic expression. Not too overwrought with dramatic theatrics and not too focused on the elements that are clearly the best in the game. Some of the little details may go undetected but I attribute that to her delivery and subtle cleverness of her programs as opposed to lack of performance.

This girl is still setting the tone and I hope inspiring future generations of skaters to come.