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Nathan's 4T-3S combo got +1.36 GOE, so I'm skeptical of any marks handed out by the nationals panel. But Jason's elements were solid and I think would get great GOE scores anywhere.
2019-20 U.S. Men's Figure Skating
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Nathan's 4T-3S combo got +1.36 GOE, so I'm skeptical of any marks handed out by the nationals panel. But Jason's elements were solid and I think would get great GOE scores anywhere.
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I think this is a mischaracterization of @fzztsimmons' excellent analysis.
The men's results this year have been exceedingly inconsistent. That is a statement of fact. It is a statement of fact to say that chances are, they will be inconsistent again. No one is putting anyone in a bad light, but simply a realistic light.
To say that Jason can only do well if others "splat" is also simply untrue. BV doesn't determine the results of a competition, what a skater puts on the ice determines that. Otherwise I could just list my five 4As in the program, and then anyone else wins only if I splat
I have no idea how Jason will do at 4CC, (and I'm still on cloud nine from those gorgeous skates at Nats) but I don't know how anyone else will do either. There's no predicting the men, and that's one of their charms.
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- Jan 28, 2013
Did I say I thought they were too high?
But many people would likely argue they were, and that he was the beneficiary of Nats-inflated scoring, so I was simply trying to be somewhat conservative in making my point.
The truth is, we don’t know whether he’ll maintain the same level going forward or how would have been judged internationally for those Nats programs. Hopefully we’ll see at Worlds, if not at 4CCs.
I keep thinking that he’s back to where he was after 2016 Skate America. No not quite the same, but once again his confidence is high and he’s stood up a not fully rotated 4T. Back in 2016 he was derailed by injury. I’m hoping he’ll have a happier outcome this time.
@theharleyquinn, I agree that there are plenty of guys who may contend for bronze. Like Jason, many have struggled this season in one way or another and could easily turn it around. I guess where I differ with you is that I don’t automatically think they’re “better” contenders than Jason. If you look at Aliev’s scores at Europeans and Kevin’s at GPF, it’s clear they’re not untouchable. Of course they and others could potentially do better and score much higher than they have so far. But until they do, I wouldn’t necessarily relegate Jason to also ran status.
I apologize. i was speaking to a larger, vaguer "you" and not to the specific you, Tavi, when I said "You'll have to show me."
I was not clear about that, and I can see where you thought otherwise.
We're on the same page, I believe, if you think his elements would score similarly high GOE no matter where they were delivered. Provided of course they're delivered with the same quality.
We good?
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- Jan 28, 2013
Point taken.
In my previous post I offered some justification for scores at last season's USNats where Nathan lit the arena on fire, but showed slightly less quality (in my opinion) at World's.
He still certainly deserved to win World's, don't get me wrong, but I thought USNats was the skate of the season.
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- Feb 25, 2014
Did I say I thought they were too high?
But many people would likely argue they were, and that he was the beneficiary of Nats-inflated scoring, so I was simply trying to be somewhat conservative in making my point.
The truth is, we don’t know whether he’ll maintain the same level going forward or how would have been judged internationally for those Nats programs. Hopefully we’ll see at Worlds, if not at 4CCs.
I keep thinking that he’s back to where he was after 2016 Skate America. No not quite the same, but once again his confidence is high and he’s stood up a not fully rotated 4T. Back in 2016 he was derailed by injury. I’m hoping he’ll have a happier outcome this time.
@theharleyquinn, I agree that there are plenty of guys who may contend for bronze. Like Jason, many have struggled this season in one way or another and could easily turn it around. I guess where I differ with you is that I don’t automatically think they’re “better” contenders than Jason. If you look at Aliev’s scores at Europeans and Kevin’s at GPF, it’s clear they’re not untouchable. Of course they and others could potentially do better and score much higher than they have so far. But until they do, I wouldn’t necessarily relegate Jason to also ran status.
This is a fair point. I'm definitely not counting him out, by any means. I would say (anecdotally) that it does seem more common for American skaters to peak at Nationals rather than Worlds compared to other countries' skaters.
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If we're taking US Nationals scores into account for Jason, I don't see any reason not to take other Nationals scores into account too.
Shoma Uno got 290.57 at JNats. JNats inflation is way smaller than USNats. One could argue it is non existent. He achieved these scores with a non maxed out SP (4T-2T instead of 4T-3T, which he landed repeatedly at official practices), and a flawed FS (to which he may add another quad by Worlds if he is consistent with this layout).
Kevin Aymoz got 286.45 at French Nats. He achieved this score without being super clean and yes, French Nats are inflated.
Junhwan Cha got 278.54 at KNats. Again, KNats is the other nationals with almost no inflation.
It does feel a bit disrespectful to at least those three skaters to completely ignore their showing at Nationals in this discussion.
To me, Schindler list is absolutely fantastic. It has joined Riverdance at US Nationals and the Piano at Skate America as one of my go to program to admire Jason's talent. I also think it will withstand years. But in my view, it does not make him a podium contender at worlds with at best one quad in a program. I also think an international judging panel might very well have given the silver to Tomoki, even though Jason had the performance of the night. I also think Aliev's performances at Euros would have beaten Jason's in an international competition (or at least it should have because Dima was clean on both programs with way higher BV than Jason and he has great skating skills and artistry). Jason also has a huge consistency problem, like the others.
I am going to stop commenting on this thread because it is a US men thread, so not really the best place to comment on the qualities and flaws of other skaters, especially after the US Men brought down the house at their Nationals. We will have a lot more information on scoring potentials at 4CC, and we will get an idea of Shoma's level at Challenge Cup. Best of luck to Jason, Tomoki and Camden at 4CC. Jason has a good chance to podium here with much less competition than at Worlds (no Nathan, no Shoma, no Kevin, no Vincent, no Russian men).
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- Mar 3, 2014
So, for something completely different, 
has the US men's Junior Worlds team been posted here yet?
Ilia Malinin
Maxim Naumov
Andrew Torgashev
https://www.usfigureskating.org/new...kating-announces-selections-world-junior-team
I love them all, although one more than the others (and he should have been assigned to 4CC. But water under the bridge).
has the US men's Junior Worlds team been posted here yet?Ilia Malinin
Maxim Naumov
Andrew Torgashev
https://www.usfigureskating.org/new...kating-announces-selections-world-junior-team
I love them all, although one more than the others (and he should have been assigned to 4CC. But water under the bridge
).Literally the difference between’s Jason’s personal best internationally in the short vs his score at Nats is 4 points. His personal best in the free is 172 at 4CC which was with two UR on the 4S and 3A. This season he got 171 with a no quad program that had a popped loop. There is room to score more.
The discourse seems come because literally we haven't seen Jason clean internationally yet this season and honestly we have yet to see a fully clean free skate internationally under the new system. I get the skepticism.
But I don't see why people are so pressed that other people, with a reasonable mind, think it's possible, even without everyone bombing. Honestly I'm not ready to.declare him a medal contender personally, but again I don't think it's this big impossible thing either.
Honestly though, maybe its beat to downplay expectations. He seems to do well when he's under the radar.
The discourse seems come because literally we haven't seen Jason clean internationally yet this season and honestly we have yet to see a fully clean free skate internationally under the new system. I get the skepticism.
But I don't see why people are so pressed that other people, with a reasonable mind, think it's possible, even without everyone bombing. Honestly I'm not ready to.declare him a medal contender personally, but again I don't think it's this big impossible thing either.
Honestly though, maybe its beat to downplay expectations. He seems to do well when he's under the radar.
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- Nov 14, 2018
I think this is a mischaracterization of @fzztsimmons' excellent analysis.
The men's results this year have been exceedingly inconsistent. That is a statement of fact. It is a statement of fact to say that chances are, they will be inconsistent again. No one is putting anyone in a bad light, but simply a realistic light.
To say that Jason can only do well if others "splat" is also simply untrue. BV doesn't determine the results of a competition, what a skater puts on the ice determines that. Otherwise I could just list my five 4As in the program, and then anyone else wins only if I splat
I have no idea how Jason will do at 4CC, (and I'm still on cloud nine from those gorgeous skates at Nats) but I don't know how anyone else will do either. There's no predicting the men, and that's one of their charms.
Thanks el henry.
I wasn’t trying to paint any of those skaters in a “bad light”, I was just pointing out that the Men’s field this season has been incredibly unpredictable and many skaters (Jason included!) have been inconsistent. So the chances of every single one of them skating clean may be unlikely considering trajectories this season. They may all go clean - good for them!
I’m not hoping for them to bomb, I want everyone to do their best (and particularly Jason, because I’m a big fan of his). Whoever is the best will win, it’s that simple.
I think there will be a clearer picture following 4CCs where we will get to see how some of those other guys are doing.
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- Jan 1, 2013
While Nathan (among others) clearly benefited from some whack Nationals scoring (+1 and change for a combo he hopped out of and 97 PCS, come on), I really don't think there was anything all that out of the ordinary about Jason's scores. His elements were all gorgeous, all worthy of very high GOE, and his performances were outstanding, definitely worthy of 48/96 PCS. The problem for Jason internationally is not just the quad bump other skaters get, but the no-quad restraint he gets. Now let's imagine he lands a clean quad and gets the quad bump at Worlds - yes, I could easily see him scoring a 191 FS for that if he skated it as well as at Nationals.
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It's amazing to think how long ago that feels. That year Max Aaron was the Junior National Champion, and that was the same year that Joshua (younger than Jason by 17 days) had his Horror Nationals where he tore a hip muscle, suffered anaphylactic shock the night before the FS, and broke his leg during the FS.
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Nathan should have gotten a -2 or -3 on that.
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He probably really does need to do a clean, fully rotated quad to be taken completely seriously by the judges. That will help his scoring more than you might think. It's not 2010 where Jason might have won gold at Worlds.
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Does anyone know where I can find the Olympic Channel commentary of Jason's LP (and SP if possible.)?
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How do you figure? He had a spread eagle entry, a nice 4T, and he didn’t step out or fall on the 3S.... It was a hop on the landing on the same landing foot.
https://www.isu.org/media-centre/press-releases/2018-8/18119-new-grade-of-execution-2018-final/file He would get bullets for very good height/distance and the preceding spread eagle. I don’t think it matches the musical structure but a judge might award it. So starting GOE is +2 (or +3). And then he would get a reduction -1 to -3 for a weak landing (no stepout, no landing on 2 feet, etc).
So final GOE could be anywhere between -1 to +1 (or 0 to +2 if the musical structure bullet was awarded — which given its Nationals and that he's a top skater, the judges very well may have). Also note that in combos, all jumps are taken into consideration and the GOE tends to be higher if the first jump is performed very well, which it was. I would say 0’s and 1’s is about right and what he would get internationally .... +2 GOE is fine for Nationals where GOE is invariably higher.
https://ijs.usfigureskating.org/leaderboard/results/2020/27988/SEGM012.html
The +3 was excessively high, for sure (and the same judge giving a +4 on the 4S was especially ludicrous and completely unjustifiable, given the landing wasn't good, nor was it effortless throughout). But 4 judges scored the 4T+Eu+3S correctly (two 0, two +1) and 4 judges were generous with a +2 (which as I pointed out could still be justifiable taking all features of the execution into consideration, and given the typically higher GOE that you see at every Nationals, US or otherwise).
However, there is no justification for -2 — and definitely not a -3.
Would either of you care to point out the specific GOE bullets/reductions you would have given to Chen’s 4T-Eu-3S, with respect to the rules above?
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- Jan 25, 2013
Interesting to see his artistic potential when he doesn’t focus on the quads but just does clean big lovely triples. He will need the quads to be more competitive and challenge for a medal, but this was actually lovely to see.
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