So, despite the fact that it’s still fairly early in the off season, I thought it would be fun to summarize what’s been going on, and see what we all think. I’ve listed the guys in order of their finishes at 2019 Nats.
Nathan (S1): No real news I’m aware of, but perhaps Oatmella will let us know if that’s wrong. He’s done
a lot of shows so far this summer. It’s kind of odd to say about someone who was already World Champion, but by going undefeated last season - despite taking on school full time and training long distance - I think his stock has gone way up. He beat Hanyu head to head at Worlds. However, Hanyu is upping his tech content, Vincent seems to be rising fast, and Shoma is now working with Eteri. Can Nathan remain on top another year? Ice is slippery and all, but I think he has a really good shot.
Vincent(S2): Vincent’s meteoric rise in the second half of last season is kind of mind boggling, but with bronze medals at 4CCS and Worlds and a huge score at WTT, he seems firmly established as US number 2 - and possibly, as someone who can potentially challenge Nathan in the future. It goes without saying that his stock is way up, but news of his coaching arrangement and that he will matriculate at Brown this fall make it hard to predict how next season will go. Since he generally seems to be a second half skater, he may simply ease off during the fall and kick into high gear right before Nats. So far, his work with Hamada seems to have been fruitful, and it will be interesting to see what happens going forward.
Jason (S3): If Jason’s season had ended after the SP at Worlds - or if he had skated his 4CCs FS at Worlds - I think his stock would have gone up a bit. As it is, he’s probably the biggest question mark of all the US men, and I’d say his stock has either remained steady or fallen slightly. He’s clearly improved at TCC, and his 3A is miles better, but overall, we’ve seen the biggest improvement in areas he was already strong at. At 4CCs, it looked like he was making progress with his 4S, but he didn’t build on that progress at Worlds; his win at PFT, while nice, didn’t really give us any more information. Without a quad, he has a shot at the GPF, but not much of one. And with Andrew and Tomoki already showing improvement, Jason could find himself struggling to make the World Team next season. Still, I’m not ready to count him out.
Tomoki (S4): Tomoki had an up and down season, but ended it very strongly with a win at JWC and an impressive senior debut at 4CCS. The 4CC audience loved him, and he has a solid 4T which he’s able to put in combination, an interesting program choice next season, and two GP assignments. At Peggy Fleming, he did fine but was still in early season form and didn’t make a huge impression. I’d say his stock is definitely up, but at this point it’s hard to say how he’ll do on the GP or how strongly he can challenge for a spot on the Worlds Team.
Alexei (S5): Last season he was recovering from injury and did not look particularly strong. But he recently showed a clip of really interesting footwork from one of his new programs, and he looked like he’s working hard to master it. He only has one GP assignment right now, but could get the SA TBD. Right now, both Tomoki and Andrew look to be in a stronger position to get post-Nats assignments, but that could change if Alexei earns a spot at SA and does well at his fall assignments.
Andrew (S7): with his strong showing in two events at Broadmoor, Andrew’s stock has suddenly shot up. He won the jumps event and showed a strong 4T; just as important, at Peggy Fleming his PCS was astronomical, and very close to Jason’s. It’s early days yet, he’s staying junior internationally this fall, and he isn’t known for consistency, but right now, he looks best positioned of all the younger men to earn a spot at 4CCS and challenge Jason for that third Worlds spot.
Camden (S12): last season was rocky for Camden, but he earned two GP assignments, did well at Broadmoor, and seems eager to take the next step. He’s got a great 3A and a new coaching team, and looks well positioned for a good debut on the GP. Can he challenge for a post-Nats assignment? It’s probably too soon to say, but at the moment both Andrew and Tomoki appear more likely to challenge for those spots.
Sean Rabbitt (S8): Sean doesn’t have GP assignment; his coaching situation is unclear; and I don’t think he’s announced new programs. Is he continuing? I guess we’ll see when the field for Glacier Falls is announced. ETA per ice coverage, Sean has said he is competing at Glacier Falls, so good to know he’s not retiring just yet.
Jimmy Ma (S10): Jimmy did really well last summer, was rewarded with the TBD at SA, and then did poorly there. He just won the Broadmoor men’s competition, but it was against a weak field with a sub-200 score. However, he also was third in the jumps competition. If he does well again this summer could he get the SA TBD spot again? It’s possible, but I’d guess a Sr B assignment is more likely.
Emmanuel Savary (S11): Emmanuel was a mixed bag at Broadmoor. He placed last in the Men’s competition with a very low score against a weak field, but he did quite well at PFT, earning high PCS. He’s too old for juniors, but if he does well at a summer international, might he get a senior B assignment? Stay tuned.
Jordan Moeller (S13): Jordan is one of those guys who’s never lived up to his potential. He is currently performing in a show in Blackpool, England, hasn’t announced new programs, and it’s unclear if he’s following Kori to Nashville. Has he retired? Time will tell.
I left off the remaining senior men at Nats either because they’ve retired or because in my (possibly wrong) estimation they aren’t likely to be competitive internationally. I left off the other juniors because I don’t know enough about them.
Thoughts?
