2019 Russian Nationals: Men's Pre-Game Chat

[elektra blue]

if misha is out or underperforms the gold is between aliev and samarin, unluckily i can't see uncle sergei snatching the gold or rusfed letting him.

 

[LadyB]

if misha is out or underperforms the gold is between aliev and samarin, unluckily i can't see uncle sergei snatching the gold or rusfed letting him.

That's the one.

 

[elektra blue]

 

[hanyuufan5]

if misha is out or underperforms the gold is between aliev and samarin, unluckily i can't see uncle sergei snatching the gold or rusfed letting him.

Wait, what? They could stop him if he does well enough?

 

[QueenOfTheRoad]

Considering that the Russian Fed is in love with the quads, the one presenting the most of them will get the GOE, the PCS and the gold, despite how his presentation will be. At this moment, as much as Voronov was stable this season, his quads were not so great (or so many). Also he got constantly (and deserved) pretty low PCS this season. Now, Kovtun was rewarded with a much bigger PCS than Aliev (????!!!!!), so i bet my money he will be in the first three if he won't totally destroy one of his program. That his and Samarin's technique are how they are won't play a role in the GOE, they will be rewarded with 4 and 5. For the first place is between him and Samarin.
Aliev is very high in prediction, but his advantage regarding Samarin and Kovtun are actually his lovely skills and should be reflecting in a bigger PCS: it wont. Already internationally he is below both of them in PCS. If Aliev skates his heart out and puts stable quads and 3A in both programs, he will be on the podium. But i cannot see him now after the season he had in the first place.
Voronov is there if the other will splat. He won't get the first place thought. His programs are too dated this season, especially the free. But, ice is slippery so, never say never.
LAzukin might snatch a top 4. Might.

I won't comment Kolyada's chances, it is pointless at this moment. He should be in his bed and take care of his health. All season he was weak and out of breath because of it, now when it got worse and he was out of preparation, what he can do coming directly from hospital? :shame:

 

[rachno2]

I'm not one to defend RusFed, and I get that Voronov is a sentimental favorite, but these conspiracy theories are puzzling to me. In what way does he deserve to be national champion so much more than the others? If we look beyond his medals/qualification to GPF and compare his actual scores to those of Kolyada and Samarin, then Sergei is by no measure the most successful Russian man this season:

Voronov
Season’s best: 254.28 (2/3)
Average total score: 236.72 (3/3)
Average GP score: 240.36 (2/3)
Average score of 3 most recent competitions (GPs + GPF): 235.72 (3/3)

Kolyada
Season’s best: 274.37 (1/3)
Average total score: 248.46 (1/3)
Average GP score: 232.10 (3/3)
Average score of 3 most recent competitions (GPs + Golden Spin): 239.12 (2/3)

Samarin
Season’s best: 248.77 (3/3)
Average total score: 237.35 (2/3)
Average GP score: 247.93 (1/3)
Average score of 3 most recent competitions (GPs + Golden Spin): 244.57 (1/3)

Kolyada has a higher season’s best, Samarin has a higher scoring average on the Grand Prix, both men have higher average scores for the overall season, and they both outscored Voronov’s GPF total by over ten points at Golden Spin, which was held at the same time. You can argue that Sergei is underscored in PCS (I wouldn't—if any Russian man is getting lowballed in PCS this season, it's Aliev), but it's not like he is going into this competition as the clear Russian #1 internationally, and the only thing standing in his way is mean ageist RusFed. The scores contradict that narrative. And I’m one of many who believe Sergei should have been sent to Europeans last season instead of Aliev (though hindsight obviously favors Dima).

I agree that 1st place is between Samarin and Kovtun. I wish RusFed was smart and didn't push Kovtun so quickly, especially when he has only competed once internationally this season, but if he skates well then he will probably win. In Kolyada's absence (either literally or figuratively.....if he competes, I doubt he will be in the right condition to podium, let alone defend his title), Samarin strikes me as the safest bet to promote as #1 going into Europeans. With the exception of Finlandia Trophy, he has stayed within the same 10-point scoring range all season, and he posted the highest average scores on the Grand Prix. He is by no means my favorite skater, and he is definitely overscored on PCS, but his jumps are exciting and high-quality when landed. Besides, I don’t understand why he should be criticized for empty programs while Voronov and Kovtun get free passes. :confused2:

Aliev is my favorite after Misha, but he faces an uphill battle, since his PCS has fallen below even Samarin’s internationally. Voronov can be on the podium, and win if others falter and he delivers, but let’s not blame it all on RusFed if he doesn’t. I do like him, though.

In addition to the above, I’m curious to see how Little Romeo, Mr. Liza and 4Artur, Jr do (will he attempt it again?!) If Mikhail does the sane thing and withdraws, I might actually enjoy this competition.

 

[elektra blue]

well i don't even pretend to be objective when it comes to sergei anyway i didn't mean any conspiracy, what i meant is that rusfed never showed a great love for sergei and he has a history of messing up when he really shouldn't, also in the eyes of many (heretics!!! :furious: ) is too old (well...he is), so if they don't have to, they won't support him and push someone else

 

[rachno2]

well i don't even pretend to be objective when it comes to sergei anyway i didn't mean any conspiracy, what i meant is that rusfed never showed a great love for sergei and he has a history of messing up when he really shouldn't, also in the eyes of many (heretics!!! :furious: ) is too old (well...he is), so if they don't have to, they won't support him and push someone else

I am sure his age does have an (unfair) impact on the way the Fed treats him. If he and Kovtun or Samarin perform similarly, for instance, the Fed is going to go with the younger guy, and it’s definitely frustrating. Like I said, I think Sergei should have had the chance to fight for a spot at the Olympics last season at Europeans. I really would like to see him perform well here and get on the Worlds team as the steady #2 or #3 or #1 if he outperforms everybody else, which could easily happen knowing the Russian men

 

[elektra blue]

i know, right? anything can really happen immagine if they all mess up in spite of our predictions and the gold goes to, i don't know, lazukin

 

[Metis]

i know, right? anything can really happen immagine if they all mess up in spite of our predictions and the gold goes to, i don't know, lazukin

Then Liza and Mr. Liza get a RusFed paid trip to Euros! Very romantic.

 

[RemyRose]

Artem Zotov replaces Gumennik
https://fsrussia.ru/files/docs/competitons/1819/rus_nat_1819_training_groups_revised.pdf

 

[Jeanie19]

Artem Zotov replaces Gumennik
https://fsrussia.ru/files/docs/competitons/1819/rus_nat_1819_training_groups_revised.pdf

Why did Gumennik withdraw?

 

[Metis]

Cancel nationals. Tuktamysheva, Kolyada, Gumennik... I can’t HANDLE the drama at this point.

 

[Jeanie19]

Cancel nationals. Tuktamysheva, Kolyada, Gumennik... I can’t HANDLE the drama at this point.

I thought Gumennik could be a spoiler.

 

[Mrs. P]

That makes me sad! I was looking forward to seeing Petr skate again! I really enjoyed seeing him live at JGPF.

 

[Metis]

I thought Gumennik could be a spoiler.

Same! Not like the Russian men aren’t the epitome of chaos theory as is...

 

[LadyB]

Wow, Petr not in there is really a blow. I also thought that he could shake things up a bit...

Coming back to Sergei: I don't think he'll be the champion (even without fed intervention, but I'll keep my fingers crossed), but as long as he doesn't completely bomb, I really believe he deserves a stab at Euros, given that he medalled at both GPs and was the only Russian man to make the final! Russia has three spots to fill, so why not him? arty:
Samarin actually would deserve the championship and the ticket to Minsk. He doesn't blow me away, but at least he was fairly consistent as well.

 

[vorravorra]

Same! Not like the Russian men aren’t the epitome of chaos theory as is...

Too early for Gumennik to spoil anything, do you really want him to be pronounced the next saviour of Russian men's skating? Let the poor guy grow up first. Plus it's not like his SB is exactly up there to send him to save spots.

 

[tabsy]

No .... :sad21: I really wanted to see Petr. Sigh. Better go amend my predictions....

 

[vorravorra]

Why did Gumennik withdraw?

Just a respiratory infection, nothing serious. They decided Senior Nationals are not important enough for him this season to compete sick.

Edit: bronchitis, actually.