2020-21 Russian Ladies' Figure Skating

[NastiaGalliamovfan]

Well Medvedeva, Zagitova, Kostornaya, Trusova etc came and yet Tuktamysheva has her World silver.

So anything is possible.

On a good skate from others Kostornaya, Kamila, even Med
Tuk will not get near their scores, she will be a sacrificial lamb, her task was done this worlds.

 

[Shayuki]

Not only can you not derive, state, or explain the mathematical formula for correlation, but you don't even understand it intuitively. A practice is typically reflective of the athlete's current shape and athletic abilities, so it is reasonable to make a forecast based on that, especially when they show similar outcomes in several consecutive practices. Occasionally some athlete will defy the odds. But that's the exception rather than the rule. Shcherbakova showed in competition exactly what could have been predicted statistically based on her practices: Expected quad success rate: 0%. Expected number of landed quads: 0. Actual landed quads: 0. Like I said, I wish she had skated cleanly and defied the odds once again. Unfortunately, this time she performed exactly in the way that any reasonable statistical model would have predicted.

So basically her performances at nationals after poor practices have been anomalies is what you'd say? This is what I'll call confirmation bias.

I do understand it intuitively, though. First you prove a correlation between one thing and another. For example, trends over time. Say, an NHL team's corsi%'s relation to their winrate. And only after you've proven it, can you use the stat in a meaningful way, to derive meaningful results. Otherwise it's just speculation and guesswork, or misuse of statistics is how I'd put it. For something like "performance in practice vs competition", the sample size you'd need is greater than the skater's career if you want statistically meaningful results.

I'm not a mathematician, but rather an engineer. Real world and practice vs theory. Theory's not my thing. Apparently real world's not yours.

 

[NastiaGalliamovfan]

Best possible outcome, really. From Russia's podium sweep to Shcherbakova winning. Even Tuktamysheva beating Trusova I don't really mind, as Trusova will have her chances whereas this might be Tuktamysheva's last opportunity and she had to wait 6 years for it.

same, I am 100% certain we will never see Tuktamsyheva in another Worlds

 

[Draculus]

I do want @IcyMathStats to give me the probability of that happening

Probability of any happened event is 1 by definition.

 

[Scott512]

Congrats to our wonderful girls!

Has anyone in the history of figure skating gone from 12th to 3rd? Conratuations to sasha on bronze liza on or silver and and Anya on her world championship gold.

Much respect to all the coaches in skaters from everywhere having to deal with such a difficult pandemic season.. Keep your fingers crossed that the Olympic season coming up in 6 months can be more of a normal Olympic season with a Grand Prix season a junior Grand Prix season and a full schedule for all 4 disciplines.

 

[Greengemmonster]

Well done Sasha!!!!!

That was a gutsy skate and her bravery paid off!!! You crazy girl!!! She played to her strengths. I will miss the SP and LP very much!

Kudos to Anna for being calm and competent. Getting the job done like a boss. She's going to medal at the Olympics. Nerves of steel no matter what goes down in practise.

Besides that can we just make RussNats the official Worlds for this year?

 

[alexocfp]

Got my predictions almost correct:

1. Anna Shcherbakova
2. Elizaveta Tuktamysheva
3. Rika Kihira
4. Alexandra Trusova
5. Kaori Sakamoto
6. Loena Hendrickx

The only past champion in the field and the most clutch Russian skater today won the 2 medals.

You see why these things matter?

Even in a choppy event like this, the found a way to battle ans not choke as much as their oppoments.

 

[Novalis]

Got my predictions almost correct:

1. Anna Shcherbakova
2. Elizaveta Tuktamysheva
3. Rika Kihira
4. Alexandra Trusova
5. Kaori Sakamoto
6. Loena Hendrickx

Okay, you win!

 

[Flying Feijoa]

Best possible outcome, really. From Russia's podium sweep to Shcherbakova winning. Even Tuktamysheva beating Trusova I don't really mind, as Trusova will have her chances whereas this might be Tuktamysheva's last opportunity and she had to wait 6 years for it.

Yeah, all three have reason to celebrate. Anna getting her long overdue major international medal (and early birthday present), Liza seizing her one last chance (probably) for World medal and Sasha clawing her way back up from 12th to bronze.
A feel-good closure to a weird season

 

[alexocfp]

Okay, you win!

Does it come with a 7 figure check? Haha

 

[Novalis]

Does it come with a 7 figure check? Haha

 

[Mawwerg]

Spirals for Miles's avatar is very actual right now for all of us.

 

[Skatesocs]

Probability of any happened event is 1 by definition.

Probability of event happening So without prior knowledge of whether it happened.

Or, let's say again in the future.

 

[leilaraj]

I am a little worried for Anna. So happy she won, but she looked exhausted and similar to RusNats. I really hope it’s just fatigue from overtraining and not health issues after her pneumonia :/

 

[nussnacker]

I am a little worried for Anna. So happy she won, but she looked exhausted and similar to RusNats. I really hope it’s just fatigue from overtraining and not health issues after her pneumonia :/

There were reports that they didn’t train properly coming to worlds in order to attend to Anna‘s health issues. The effects of pneumonia are still there.

 

[NastiaGalliamovfan]

There were reports that they didn’t train properly coming to worlds in order to attend to Anna‘s health issues. The effects of pneumonia are still there.

I think this a huge relief for her team, she can finally take a rest and have a little break

 

[Vandevska]

I think this a huge relief for her team, she can finally take a rest and have a little break

Yes, she couldn't properly rest because of the 1TV Cup, it must've affected her. Lots of rest now.

 

[Novalis]

Yes, she couldn't properly rest because of the 1TV Cup, it must've affected her. Lots of rest now.

Well, thay'll be touring in Russia doing shows all of April.

 

[florin]

This was the most epic moment of the conference, when Liza forgot that she had taken silver at this championship, not bronze.

"Yes, I also believe that without quads, you will not be able to get a medal at OG-22. Maybe just a bronze, like I'm here today... Oh, wait, I've got silver, I forgot that..."

 

[alexocfp]