2020-21 Russian Ladies' Figure Skating

[kolyadafan2002]

What!?! What does one have to do to have "a truly consistent quad"? Jump it with no warm up in spotlights? Oh, wait...

If you count the two quad toes of her in Galas she has now landed 7 of them in a row. This is rare for anyone with any quad. This coinsides with rippon technique very nicely. No quads are entirely consistent, but hers seems to be unusually so.

Otherwise your post has a point. But having both a quad and a triksel in same program would be a great challenge. Maybe that's what will be her speciality

I think for now we can call it consistent. I don't think it's sustainable long term (in terms of using rippon to stay straight), but it seems to be doing the job now.

 

[silveruskate]

Skipping forwards, what is the absolute maximum possibility on jumps for the skaters come Olympic time?

Anna: 4Lz, 4F, 3A
Sasha: 4Lz 4S, 4T, 3A, 4F
Aliona: 3A, 4S
Kamila: 4T, 3A, 4Lz?
Daria: 3A, any quads?
Maria: 4T, 4S, 3A?

4Lz for Valieva is a massive stretch, but if she's learning any new jump it has to be 4Lz.

 

[karina17]

Skipping forwards, what is the absolute maximum possibility on jumps for the skaters come Olympic time?

Anna: 4Lz, 4F, 3A
Sasha: 4Lz 4S, 4T, 3A, 4F
Aliona: 3A, 4S
Kamila: 4T, 3A, 4Lz?
Daria: 3A, any quads?
Maria: 4T, 4S, 3A?

4Lz for Valieva is a massive stretch, but if she's learning any new jump it has to be 4Lz.

Daria and Anna were seen training 4T on harness last season (Daria in a photo, Anna in a video). Whether or not they're still doing it, I don't know.

4Lo for Sasha? It looked under in the video, but that's closer than most of the other jumps listed for the other girls.

Maybe 4S for Kamila? The 3Lz seemed to be giving her trouble during the past few events. But I guess that could mean that they're training the quad and it's messing up her triple, who knows.

 

[silveruskate]

Daria and Anna were seen training 4T on harness last season (Daria in a photo, Anna in a video). Whether or not they're still doing it, I don't know.

4Lo for Sasha? It looked under in the video, but that's closer than most of the other jumps listed for the other girls.

Maybe 4S for Kamila? The 3Lz seemed to be giving her trouble during the past few events. But I guess that could mean that they're training the quad and it's messing up her triple, who knows.

Oh I should have mentioned this is all just my opinion!

I was thinking of adding 4Lo for Sasha, but I couldn't see her adding that in a program in time. Her Christmas wish-list is so long! Maybe if she's given up on 4F though.

For some reason I think Anna could get 4T in a few months if she wanted. But with her injury it would be betting the house for Olympic season.

 

[Vilord]

Skipping forwards, what is the absolute maximum possibility on jumps for the skaters come Olympic time?

Anna: 4Lz, 4F, 3A
Sasha: 4Lz 4S, 4T, 3A, 4F
Aliona: 3A, 4S
Kamila: 4T, 3A, 4Lz?
Daria: 3A, any quads?
Maria: 4T, 4S, 3A?

4Lz for Valieva is a massive stretch, but if she's learning any new jump it has to be 4Lz.

If Im going to say what I think is realistic this is my verdict:

Anna: 4Lz and 4F realistic, 3A and 4T possible but not verry likely, if she has no more injuries or illnesses I could see her learning one of these the next off season.

Sasha: 4Lz and 4T likely, 3A in short and either 4F or 4S possible but it might be hard to get this may difficult jumps stable without injury.

Aliona 3A Possible to get it back for next season but I dont think we will see it this year. 4S unlikely IMO when she will need to focus on getting the 3A back she probably wont have time for learning the 4S as well.

Kamilla: 4T likely, 3A probably also likely but less so than 4T imo. 4Lz is to me unlikely because her 3Lz is verry low and she is verry inefficent with her picking in terms of getting height on her Lz and F. If I where to guess on a 2nd quad for Valieva it would be the 4S.

Daria: 3A I could see her doing an Aliona and learn it properly during next off season and surprise everyone but so far weve not even seen any attempts. I dont think 4T or 4S is out of the realms of possiblity but honestly I think learning one of these will be a victory for her and I dont expect her to come with multiple difficult jumps next season.

Maiia: If the growth spurt can slow down a bit I think it would be possible to stabilize the quads she has allready got. But unless they become more stable I dont see the point in trying to add any more difficult jumps to her repetoir.

Liza: 3A likely, 4T possible if she can remain healty through the rest of this season and the next off season.

 

[chasingneverland]

This is a fine point: Kamila's 2A doesn't suggest a 3A and Anna's 3Lz and 3F do not suggest 4Lz and 4F. But here we are.

Yeah, that's basically what I meant.

2A (for 3A) and triples (for quads) aren't by themselves sole indicators and each of these girls have surprised in the past. In fact, despite illness/injury Anna's 4F and Sasha's 4Lz have looked even better than last year.

 

[chasingneverland]

It's clearly not about building a roof, it's about going for the layout that gives her the best shot.
As we've witnessed with Sasha for 2 years now, it's not the highest planned tech that wins, but reasonable difficulty and consistency + going clean.

That said, it is not the same adding a third quad to a program where you already jump two, than it is adding a 3A to a program with 2 ultra c. The 3A requires a completely different jump technique, completely different momentum and gives a completely different and "unnatural" feeling in the air. She would be the first woman in the world to land a quad and a 3A in the same program.
If she can do that reliably and consistently, great. If she can't and will get into a Trusova inconsistency level, she'll only hurt her chances.
Adding that her 4T is not, in fact, truly consistent from what we can see, while it is stunning when landed.

Yeah. I'm sure Eteri is constantly looking for ways for them to improve - in both PCS and TES. On the TES side, for Kamila, there is always upgrading programs, by adding a 3A (to the long) and another quad? However, she doesn't need both yet. And she's already just upgraded by adding a 3A to the short and as it's a new jump for her, she needs to get it more consistent. Also she has just worked on getting her 4T consistent too. It's easy to say add another jump, but adding the 3A to her FS will affect here warmup for her FS, as she will have to prep two difficult jumps with completely different technique and entry. I think for now merely stabilizing her 3A in the SP will help. That's higher TES than Aliona had last year and even with 3 quads, Anna could barely beat that. Then looking at how the other girls (Anna, Sasha, Aliona, Liza, and maybe Daria) upgrade continually work on adding more. But they all need to be consistent. Kamila especially as she doesn't have senior international experience and is known for her consistency and artistry and beautiful lines and they don't want to ruin that.

 

[chasingneverland]

Third time in a row? Adelina Sotnikova was 17, so she wasn't a first year senior.

Yeah exactly. Same age as Anna and Sasha would be.

 

[karina17]

Oh I should have mentioned this is all just my opinion!

I was thinking of adding 4Lo for Sasha, but I couldn't see her adding that in a program in time. Her Christmas wish-list is so long! Maybe if she's given up on 4F though.

For some reason I think Anna could get 4T in a few months if she wanted. But with her injury it would be betting the house for Olympic season.

OH sorry I thought you were asking for all possible jumps from them!

Maybe Sasha will train the 4Lo more if whatever injury that's stopping her from training 4T and 3A persists for a little longer (though obviously it'd be better if she healed faster and got those back over the 4Lo). I don't know. What injury does Anna have, by the way?

 

[chasingneverland]

If Im going to say what I think is realistic this is my verdict:

Anna: 4Lz and 4F realistic, 3A and 4T possible but not verry likely, if she has no more injuries or illnesses I could see her learning one of these the next off season.

Sasha: 4Lz and 4T likely, 3A in short and either 4F or 4S possible but it might be hard to get this may difficult jumps stable without injury.

Aliona 3A Possible to get it back for next season but I dont think we will see it this year. 4S unlikely IMO when she will need to focus on getting the 3A back she probably wont have time for learning the 4S as well.

Kamilla: 4T likely, 3A probably also likely but less so than 4T imo. 4Lz is to me unlikely because her 3Lz is verry low and she is verry inefficent with her picking in terms of getting height on her Lz and F. If I where to guess on a 2nd quad for Valieva it would be the 4S.

Daria: 3A I could see her doing an Aliona and learn it properly during next off season and surprise everyone but so far weve not even seen any attempts. I dont think 4T or 4S is out of the realms of possiblity but honestly I think learning one of these will be a victory for her and I dont expect her to come with multiple difficult jumps next season.

Maiia: If the growth spurt can slow down a bit I think it would be possible to stabilize the quads she has allready got. But unless they become more stable I dont see the point in trying to add any more difficult jumps to her repetoir.

Liza: 3A likely, 4T possible if she can remain healty through the rest of this season and the next off season.

That's how I see that too.

Especially as 4 of these girls are injured/ill and not even able to do their peaks from last year right now, I think for all of them it's going to be priority just to regain their previous technical content.

 

[chasingneverland]

OH sorry I thought you were asking for all possible jumps from them!

Maybe Sasha will train the 4Lo more if whatever injury that's stopping her from training 4T and 3A persists for a little longer (though obviously it'd be better if she healed faster and got those back over the 4Lo). I don't know. What injury does Anna have, by the way?

Anna broke her leg just before her first junior international season (2017) missing the entire international season (she also broke her arm earlier that year). She had a 4T before her broken leg happened and then had to relearn how to skate all over again. However, she's said before that past injury limits her from being able to a 4T and 4S.

EDIT: So she still could add a 4T but they'll be cautious there considering her past injury and the importance of the Olympic season. (There's a cute video of Daniil holding her up as she takes her first steps (really her broken leg is only gliding here as Daniil helps her) after the break.) Also she does have/is recovering from pneumonia which slowed her return to her past peak and she hasn't been doing full run-throughs of programs (other than during the RusNats itself.)

 

[Vilord]

Yeah exactly. Same age as Anna and Sasha would be.

Sotnikova was 2nd year senior at 16yo. the 3A will be 3rd year seniors like Zenya at last olympics

 

[chasingneverland]

Sotnikova was 2nd year senior at 16yo. the 3A will be 3rd year seniors like Zenya at last olympics

That's just because of when their birthdays are. Adelina was born on July 1 so just a couple hours too young. Really Sasha will be almost the same age (a week difference) from how old Adelina was (assuming the Olympics are held at the time they should be and not affected by the pandemic) (and Anna only 3 months older.) So they'll only be 17.

EDIT: Sotnikova was 17 at the Olympics. And 17 for her entire international second year season. Besides Anna and Sasha 16 year old second year seniors right now.

Aliona is 7 months older than Anna and 10 older than Sasha. So she'll be 18.

EDIT: Also it's not like any of the 3A will have 3 international seasons by then. (Missing a Worlds, GP (and Final), and Euros (at least).)

 

[TripleAxelQueens3]

Skipping forwards, what is the absolute maximum possibility on jumps for the skaters come Olympic time?

Anna: 4Lz, 4F, 3A
Sasha: 4Lz 4S, 4T, 3A, 4F
Aliona: 3A, 4S
Kamila: 4T, 3A, 4Lz?
Daria: 3A, any quads?
Maria: 4T, 4S, 3A?

4Lz for Valieva is a massive stretch, but if she's learning any new jump it has to be 4Lz.

Anna: 4Lz, 4F, 3A (she had 4T a couple of years ago but can she not jump it because of injury now?)
Sasha: 4Lz, 4T, 4S, 3A, 4F, 4Lo (she can technically do all of them, but I doubt she would actually do that...)
Alyona: 3A, 4S, possibly 4T?
Daria: 3A, possibly 4S or 4T
Maiia: 4T, 4S, possibly 3A
Kamila: 4T, 3A, I think they could go for a 4S instead of 4Lz, since her lutz isn't her best jump.

 

[silveruskate]

The status of Anna's injury is one of the biggest mysteries. If it doesn't affect her anymore I could see that as the next quad. Training it end of 2019 suggests she's willing to try again.

But from what I understand, she's always preferred the highest value quads route and limited quantity. 3 quads will already limit the program aesthetic, 4 is even worse. So I can't see space for it.

 

[silveruskate]

Interesting for Kamila. I thought Lutz was a good jump for her! Are there any videos of her solo Salchow to see the quality?

The biggest advantage with Lutz is easy speed and lift from the toe-pick, but Sal does have the rotation advantage I guess.

 

[Novalis]

Interesting for Kamila. I thought Lutz was a good jump for her! Are there any videos of her solo Salchow to see the quality?

The biggest advantage with Lutz is easy speed and lift from the toe-pick, but Sal does have the rotation advantage I guess.

I do recall from some interview last spring or so where they were planning precisely 4S and 3A. I also think that 4S might happen

 

[chasingneverland]

I do recall from some interview last spring or so where they were planning precisely 4S and 3A. I also think that 4S might happen

It's definitely possible. She did get a 3A out of essentially nowhere. And she's not injuried/ill and has no other big competitions this year.

 

[TripleAxelQueens3]

Interesting for Kamila. I thought Lutz was a good jump for her! Are there any videos of her solo Salchow to see the quality?

The biggest advantage with Lutz is easy speed and lift from the toe-pick, but Sal does have the rotation advantage I guess.

Her problem jump for the Russian cup competitions was really the lutz (out of the four falls she had, 3 were on lutzes). I would almost think 4F is more possible than 4Lz for her. I'm no physics master, but I would suppose that since she doesn't really lift from the toe-pick it makes it harder to get height and distance. But she got the 4T with that technique so who knows?

 

[Jontor]

If Im going to say what I think is realistic this is my verdict:

Anna: 4Lz and 4F realistic, 3A and 4T possible but not verry likely, if she has no more injuries or illnesses I could see her learning one of these the next off season.

Sasha: 4Lz and 4T likely, 3A in short and either 4F or 4S possible but it might be hard to get this may difficult jumps stable without injury.

Aliona 3A Possible to get it back for next season but I dont think we will see it this year. 4S unlikely IMO when she will need to focus on getting the 3A back she probably wont have time for learning the 4S as well.

Kamilla: 4T likely, 3A probably also likely but less so than 4T imo. 4Lz is to me unlikely because her 3Lz is verry low and she is verry inefficent with her picking in terms of getting height on her Lz and F. If I where to guess on a 2nd quad for Valieva it would be the 4S.

Daria: 3A I could see her doing an Aliona and learn it properly during next off season and surprise everyone but so far weve not even seen any attempts. I dont think 4T or 4S is out of the realms of possiblity but honestly I think learning one of these will be a victory for her and I dont expect her to come with multiple difficult jumps next season.

Maiia: If the growth spurt can slow down a bit I think it would be possible to stabilize the quads she has allready got. But unless they become more stable I dont see the point in trying to add any more difficult jumps to her repetoir.

Liza: 3A likely, 4T possible if she can remain healty through the rest of this season and the next off season.

I totally agree with you.