2020-21 Russian Ladies' Figure Skating

[kwanatic]

i think she has tried a 4S before, but i believe she got a small injury (correct me if i'm wrong).

her 3A may be enough. we still have no idea how any quad girl's consistency will hold up in the next 2 years, who will get injured, who will lose their jumps due to puberty etc. look back on the discussion from a few pages ago on 2018 olympic team predictions from fall 2016- they were very very wrong and that was even closer to that olympics than we are to the 2022 games. i think it's safe to assume based on history, what we think will happen most likely will not happen.

if Aliona keeps growing as an artist, keeps her consistency with her current jumps and stays uninjured, she may come out on top. you could say this about Alina too.

That's the biggest thing--we never know how stuff will turn out. At the end of the season in 2017 I would have bet every cent I own that Evgenia would blow everyone out of the water and easily win in Pyeongchang. However, in one season everything changed--Evgenia got injured, Alina showed up and the story changed completely. We are still way too far out to know what is going to happen to these skaters. It's always season by season, if not a competition by competition--we've seen the tide change with one result. The sport is all about momentum but momentum can shift rapidly.

Things are up in the air for everyone. All of the front-runners from last season have to weather the next two years which includes possible growth spurts and body changes, technique issues, injuries, life events...the list goes on and on. Maybe none of them will make the 2022 team--it seems impossible at this point in time but with all that can happen, it is possible, not to mention the fact that younger skaters are also a threat. The have the advantage of looking at the field from afar and seeing what it takes to be competitive. The current group has set the bar but the younger skaters will try to match if not surpass it.

As for Alina, it'd be interesting to see what her goals are. Is she planning on adding to her arsenal? Without 3As or quads I don't think she has a shot at the big titles. Even if she doesn't, if she can maintain her current jump content she still has a great chance at medaling on the GP and other events. She's won everything so it's all extra at this point. I'd like to see her explore and improve her artistry (and her posture--just get that back up and those shoulders back!). It was rough to see her looking so sad/stressed last season. I think the time off will be good for her and give her a new outlook on competing. It should be fun for her--she doesn't have anything left to prove.

I'm really interested to see how next season plays out for everyone.

 

[Shayuki]

i think she has tried a 4S before, but i believe she got a small injury (correct me if i'm wrong).

her 3A may be enough. we still have no idea how any quad girl's consistency will hold up in the next 2 years, who will get injured, who will lose their jumps due to puberty etc. look back on the discussion from a few pages ago on 2018 olympic predictions from fall 2016- they were very very wrong and that was even closer to that olympics than we are to the 2022 games. i think it's safe to assume based on history, what we think will happen most likely will not happen.

if Aliona keeps growing as an artist, keeps her consistency with her current jumps and stays uninjured, she may come out on top. you could say this about Alina too.

We don't know how all the quad girls' consistency holds up, but it's difficult to predict that -all- of them will have a poor competition. Especially Valieva will be of age where I doubt she'd yet be losing quads. In fact, I think she'll improve her jumping quite a bit by then, both Trusova and Shcherbakova did.

In the Olympics artistry doesn't really matter. When the PCS will be in the 77-79 range no matter what you do, it all comes down to the technical elements performed. Three 3As could be enough for her anyway, though. But I somewhat doubt it.

 

[drivingmissdaisy]

It might. But at least right now, as soon as Anna or Sasha start landing a 3A for the SP, or they even allow quads for the short, that's it for her as far as being on top of the podiums goes.

I don't agree. Sasha is inconsistent and still has a tough time beating Alena just in the LP. Trusova certainly wouldn't win the SP if both are clean and doing the same jumps. As far as Anna goes, I honestly think she's going to have a tough time keeping her quads, but it's also conceivable that Alena loses her 3A, too.

 

[flanker]

That's the biggest thing--we never know how stuff will turn out. At the end of the season in 2017 I would have bet every cent I own that Evgenia would blow everyone out of the water and easily win in Pyeongchang. However, in one season everything changed--Evgenia got injured, Alina showed up and the story changed completely. We are still way too far out to know what is going to happen to these skaters. It's always season by season, if not a competition by competition--we've seen the tide change with one result. The sport is all about momentum but momentum can shift rapidly.

Things are up in the air for everyone. All of the front-runners from last season have to weather the next two years which includes possible growth spurts and body changes, technique issues, injuries, life events...the list goes on and on. Maybe none of them will make the 2022 team--it seems impossible at this point in time but with all that can happen, it is possible, not to mention the fact that younger skaters are also a threat. The have the advantage of looking at the field from afar and seeing what it takes to be competitive. The current group has set the bar but the younger skaters will try to match if not surpass it.

As for Alina, it'd be interesting to see what her goals are. Is she planning on adding to her arsenal? Without 3As or quads I don't think she has a shot at the big titles. Even if she doesn't, if she can maintain her current jump content she still has a great chance at medaling on the GP and other events. She's won everything so it's all extra at this point. I'd like to see her explore and improve her artistry (and her posture--just get that back up and those shoulders back!). It was rough to see her looking so sad/stressed last season. I think the time off will be good for her and give her a new outlook on competing. It should be fun for her--she doesn't have anything left to prove.

I'm really interested to see how next season plays out for everyone.

I would say the difference is that now people are much more aware about the junior skaters like Kamila, Daria, Ksenia etc. and about their abilities than they were three years ago about the juniors that time. So it would not be so surprising to see e.g. Kamila getting among the top 3 russian ladies in the olympic season, while I don't think there are girls age eligible for the 2021/22 senior season whose abilities would allow them to get there that we wouldn't know now at all.

 

[kwanatic]

In the Olympics artistry doesn't really matter. When the PCS will be in the 77-79 range no matter what you do, it all comes down to the technical elements performed.

It should matter. Just because a skater has technical content doesn't mean they should automatically get sky high PCS. The lack of separation between the technical scoring and component scoring is what's wrong with the system. There are skaters who have difficult technical content but don't deserve a PCS higher than a 7.25. But for some reason if a skater puts up a big TES the PCS magically increase to a higher than warranted score--across the board, which is another problem.

It is possible to have a range of PCS as well. In most cases, regardless of what's done on the ice, a skater's PCS falls within a close range. It's possible to have a skater be a 7.00 in skating skills but an 8.50 in performance/execution. The way the sport is currently scored is unfair for the skaters with legitimately strong components but weaker technical elements. Their low TES automatically gives them lower PCS which means they don't get credit for the things they did well. Meanwhile, a skater who has the technical content but lacks quality components receives credit for not only for what they do well, but the stuff they don't do well either.

Corridor scoring and a lack of proper component evaluation is one of the biggest issues I have with the scoring system.

 

[AshWagsFan]

I would say the difference is that now people are much more aware about the junior skaters like Kamila, Daria, Ksenia etc. and about their abilities than they were three years ago about the juniors that time. So it would not be so surprising to see e.g. Kamila getting among the top 3 russian ladies in the olympic season, while I don't think there are girls age eligible for the 2021/22 senior season whose abilities would allow them to get there that we wouldn't know now at all.

I agree. Although Zagtiova was a bit of a surprise in 2018, we all knew about Sotskova and Tsurskaya as juniors, and when they turned senior, they were both big contenders for the Olympic team.

Edit: we all knew them right from the beginning of their junior careers as skaters that could contend for the team

 

[flanker]

I don't agree. Sasha is inconsistent and still has a tough time beating Alena just in the LP. Trusova certainly wouldn't win the SP if both are clean and doing the same jumps. As far as Anna goes, I honestly think she's going to have a tough time keeping her quads, but it's also conceivable that Alena loses her 3A, too.

Remember that people were sending Anna back to juniors before the last season and at the end she was held back more by the rules (no quad allowed in the SP) than her abilities in the direct competition against Aliona. Anna won all three free programs against Aliona when she wasn't limited by rules, at GPF and Europeans just didn't won it by enough points to catch up Aliona's margin from the SP.

Anna also seems to keep up with her growth. She admitted that after the Europeans she had some time where she lost consistency, but was able to regain it before the planned time of the World championships. of course now everybody has to get over the two months without training, but as she said, "I may look fragile, but I've the heart of the warrior."

 

[macy]

as much as i too want to put my bets on Kamila for the olympics, look at all the predictions for 2018 that had Polina winning or on the podium. she didn't have hardly any success once she turned senior and didn't make the team. everything can change so quickly.

as far as quad girls making mistakes, the more riskier elements you have, the more chance you take at not being clean as we saw last season. i definitely wouldn't call any of Anna nor Sasha's skates bad or poor (except maybe Sasha's RusNats long), but i don't think either of them were ever clean in international competition, and that's what made the difference with Aliona taking the win every time.

 

[herro]

It should matter. Just because a skater has technical content doesn't mean they should automatically get sky high PCS. The lack of separation between the technical scoring and component scoring is what's wrong with the system. There are skaters who have difficult technical content but don't deserve a PCS higher than a 7.25. But for some reason if a skater puts up a big TES the PCS magically increase to a higher than warranted score--across the board, which is another problem.

It is possible to have a range of PCS as well. In most cases, regardless of what's done on the ice, a skater's PCS falls within a close range. It's possible to have a skater be a 7.00 in skating skills but an 8.50 in performance/execution. The way the sport is currently scored is unfair for the skaters with legitimately strong components but weaker technical elements. Their low TES automatically gives them lower PCS which means they don't get credit for the things they did well. Meanwhile, a skater who has the technical content but lacks quality components receives credit for not only for what they do well, but the stuff they don't do well either.

Corridor scoring and a lack of proper component evaluation is one of the biggest issues I have with the scoring system.

YASSS :clapper:

 

[drivingmissdaisy]

Anna also seems to keep up with her growth. She admitted that after the Europeans she had some time where she lost consistency, but was able to regain it before the planned time of the World championships. of course now everybody has to get over the two months without training, but as she said, "I may look fragile, but I've the heart of the warrior."

I don't doubt Anna's "heart" or her desire to get to the top. However, she isn't the first skater to have heart; a lot of past champions have fought hard to keep the difficult jumps and failed to. She may succeed, but a lot of things have to go right for that to happen.

 

[JazzUp]

Good news for Russian ladies - ISU decided to revert their last decision on jump points.

ISU Communication 2323 (Single & Pair Skating Scale of Values season 2020/21) and ISU Communication 2324 (Single & Pair Skating Levels of Difficulty and Guidelines for making Grade of Execution and Program Components Season 2020/21):

Considering the worldwide COVID-19 developments and the slow re-opening of ice rinks and training activities and also based on feedback received from ISU Members, the Council decided to suspend with immediate effect the above-mentioned ISU Communications 2323 and 2324. The corresponding previous ISU Communications 2253 and 2254 remain basically in force.

So, 3Lz is back to 5.9; 4Lz to 11.5; 4Lo - 10.5.

 

[Shayuki]

It should matter. Just because a skater has technical content doesn't mean they should automatically get sky high PCS. The lack of separation between the technical scoring and component scoring is what's wrong with the system. There are skaters who have difficult technical content but don't deserve a PCS higher than a 7.25. But for some reason if a skater puts up a big TES the PCS magically increase to a higher than warranted score--across the board, which is another problem.

It is possible to have a range of PCS as well. In most cases, regardless of what's done on the ice, a skater's PCS falls within a close range. It's possible to have a skater be a 7.00 in skating skills but an 8.50 in performance/execution. The way the sport is currently scored is unfair for the skaters with legitimately strong components but weaker technical elements. Their low TES automatically gives them lower PCS which means they don't get credit for the things they did well. Meanwhile, a skater who has the technical content but lacks quality components receives credit for not only for what they do well, but the stuff they don't do well either.

Corridor scoring and a lack of proper component evaluation is one of the biggest issues I have with the scoring system.

Well I wasn't talking about what -should- happen, I was making a prediction about what I believe will happen during the Olympic season. I think the top skaters will have sky high PCS regardless, say Kostornaya 79 and Trusova 76 might be the range, and it'll almost exclusively come down to TES, just like has been the case for just about every Olympic competition. I can hardly expect them to suddenly begin treating Olympics differently.

I don't doubt Anna's "heart" or her desire to get to the top. However, she isn't the first skater to have heart; a lot of past champions have fought hard to keep the difficult jumps and failed to. She may succeed, but a lot of things have to go right for that to happen.

She seems to be on a different level in this regard, somehow. For example if we compare both to Trusova and Kostornaya, she seems to be clearly the most determined one. Or she just doesn't let any dissatisfaction show, unlike the other two.

And hm, Kostyleva pretty close to 3Lz+3T, the 3T's still under but I wonder who the youngest skater to land 3Lz+3T is, she's 8.

 

[plushyfan]

Good news for Russian ladies - ISU decided to revert their last decision on jump points.

So, 3Lz is back to 5.9; 4Lz to 11.5; 4Lo - 10.5.

it's really great news! :agree:

 

[flanker]

Good news for Russian ladies - ISU decided to revert their last decision on jump points.



So, 3Lz is back to 5.9; 4Lz to 11.5; 4Lo - 10.5.

(BTW "q" experiment is gone as well :hap93

 

[flanker]

BTW:

Communication No. 2332 excerpt:

Junior Grand Prix of Figure Skating season 2020/21
Following the cancellation of the first two Junior Grand Prix of Figure Skating Events that were to have been held in Canada and Slovak Republic, the Council approved the application from Riga / LAT to host a Junior Grand Prix of Figure Skating Event. The revised ISU Junior Grand Prix of Figure Skating Series will therefore be as follows:
1st event September 9-12, 2020 Budapest / HUN
2nd event September 16-19, 2020 Yokohama / JPN
3rd event (incl. Pair Skating) September 23-26, 2020 Ostrava / CZE
4th event (incl. Pair Skating) Sept. 30-Oct. 3, 2020 Tashkent / UZB
5th event October 7-10, 2020 Ljubljana / SLO
6th event (incl. Pair Skating) October 14-17, 2020 Riga / LAT

A further update will be given after the Council meeting to be held on July 6, 2020

https://www.isu.org/inside-isu/isu-communications/communications/24380-isu-communication-2332/file

Also

 

[macy]

BTW:

Communication No. 2332 excerpt:

Junior Grand Prix of Figure Skating season 2020/21Following the cancellation of the first two Junior Grand Prix of Figure Skating Events that were to have been held in Canada and Slovak Republic, the Council approved the application from Riga / LAT to host a Junior Grand Prix of Figure Skating Event. The revised ISU Junior Grand Prix of Figure Skating Series will therefore be as follows:
1st event September 9-12, 2020 Budapest / HUN
2nd event September 16-19, 2020 Yokohama / JPN
3rd event (incl. Pair Skating) September 23-26, 2020 Ostrava / CZE
4th event (incl. Pair Skating) Sept. 30-Oct. 3, 2020 Tashkent / UZB
5th event October 7-10, 2020 Ljubljana / SLO
6th event (incl. Pair Skating) October 14-17, 2020 Riga / LAT

A further update will be given after the Council meeting to be held on July 6, 2020

https://www.isu.org/inside-isu/isu-communications/communications/24380-isu-communication-2332/file

Also

that's great news! seems they are doing everything they can to have a season.

 

[plushyfan]

BTW:


1st event September 9-12, 2020 Budapest / HUN

I will be there! : hap93: I hope it won't be cancelled!!!

 

[Fried]

I will be there! : hap93: I hope it won't be cancelled!!!

An arena with spectators would be grossly negligent as long as no vaccine is available. I hope that the health of athletes is a priority.

 

[plushyfan]

An arena with spectators would be grossly negligent as long as no vaccine is available. I hope that the health of athletes is a priority.

Well, you are right! I forgot it ! But we can fly to all country of EU from today...

 

[Pantsu]

It's JGP, empty stands is the most common audience
I see no problem at all, wear masks and keep the distance