2020-21 Russian Ladies' Figure Skating

[Greengemmonster]

I can't remember last year anymore so bear with me.

A clean 3 quad Trusova with a 3lz3loop should win right??? That would be huge BV. I don't understand why she needed to add more.

 

[nussnacker]

I can't remember last year anymore so bear with me.

A clean 3 quad Trusova with a 3lz3loop should win right??? That would be huge BV. I don't understand why she needed to add more.

Because Aliona had a SP advantage of 10+ points over Sasha, and Anna had roughly 3-4 point advantage.
Additionally, Anna was also going for 2-3 quads and Lz-Lo in FS, and Aliona had 2*3A and highest GOEs, so Sasha had to up her tech to first catch up with the deficit from the short and also PCS difference in the free with the other two.

 

[Amei]

I can't remember last year anymore so bear with me.

A clean 3 quad Trusova with a 3lz3loop should win right??? That would be huge BV. I don't understand why she needed to add more.

There are a lot of variables there like what her competition does, what type of 3 quads she does, what's the triple axel in the SP look like (pretty sure she's not made positive GOE on that yet); she does have to consider her competition for Nationals gold in Shcherbakova and Valieva (based on what we've seen) both will likely score better than her in all non-jump scores (unless obviously they have a mistake). If you are talking last season, there was an issue for both her and Shcherbakova that Kostornaia was able to get such an advantage in the SP with the triple axel, so I understood her pressing to get that triple axel for the GPF (though she ultimately fell on it in competition). But based on interviews that have been posted in the past I think doing all the quads is based on Trusova's desire, and I believe that was part of the issues that caused her to ultimately leave Eteri.

 

[chasingneverland]

I can't remember last year anymore so bear with me.

A clean 3 quad Trusova with a 3lz3loop should win right??? That would be huge BV. I don't understand why she needed to add more.

No, not necessarily. Anna - if in form, can match that. She was doing a 3 quad program with a 3Lz-3L by the end of last season. Anna's PCS and spins are higher too. Plus, Alena can also match that with her 3A especially considering Alena's 3A short program advantage and her even higher PCS. Valieva (while still a junior won't be next year) also has a 2 quad program and has a 3A now so will also have a short program advantage. Plus Valieva has spectacular spins and her PCS are on track to be the highest.

 

[kirauza343]

No, not necessarily. Anna - if in form, can match that. She was doing a 3 quad program with a 3Lz-3L by the end of last season. Anna's PCS and spins are higher too. Plus, Alena can also match that with her 3A especially considering Alena's 3A short program advantage and her even higher PCS. Valieva (while still a junior won't be next year) also has a 2 quad program and has a 3A now so will also have a short program advantage. Plus Valieva has spectacular spins and her PCS are on track to be the highest.

Thing is Anna’s only been attempting one quad this season and Alena hasn’t attempted any triple axels in competition. I don’t see Anna jumping from one to three for Nationals (especially with time off ice for pneumonia recently) and the outlook for Alena having a triple axel by then isn’t great. IMO a clean three quad program from Sasha would only be beatable this year by Kamila based on what we’ve seen (which could be really close...Kamila would have the lower value quads and only 2 vs 3 but her quality would keep her competitive...it could come down to hitting a triple axel in the short).

 

[colormyworld240]

Thing is Anna’s only been attempting one quad this season and Alena hasn’t attempted any triple axels in competition. I don’t see Anna jumping from one to three for Nationals (especially with time off ice for pneumonia recently) and the outlook for Alena having a triple axel by then isn’t great. IMO a clean three quad program from Sasha would only be beatable this year by Kamila based on what we’ve seen (which could be really close...Kamila would have the lower value quads and only 2 vs 3 but her quality would keep her competitive...it could come down to hitting a triple axel in the short).

A clean 3 quad program is extremely difficult, even for Sasha. Last season they tried this strategy - either GPF, Nats, or Euros and it was still a disaster. And she didn't have any room for mistakes, so that probably put her off.

Sasha was clear in her interview after leaving Eteri that she was upset because they limited her jumping, so I think she'll try all her quads.

It's hard for Sasha because she needs to have 3 clean quads and land the 3A but Alena/Anna/Kamila don't because they have the spins + PCS. Especially Kamila.

It's interesting how the 3 were able to add quads/3As faster than Sasha was able to improve her spins and PCS.

 

[Azikin]

I don’t see Anna jumping from one to three for Nationals (especially with time off ice for pneumonia recently).

There were definitely plans for more than one at Nationals, as I heard in interview. No need to take risks at Russian Cup. (Or maybe no need to reveal all cards?) But the sickness may have changed the plans, we will see.

 

[flanker]

There were definitely plans for more than one at Nationals, as I heard in interview. No need to take risks at Russian Cup. (Or maybe no need to reveal all cards?) But the sickness may have changed the plans, we will see.

Yes, the plan was two quads at Rostelecom and three at nationals. Actually she already planned two quads at the stage 3 of the Cup, but just before the competition together with the coaches they decided to go safer way (pity at the end, because Anna's 4F looked very stable). Of course, the question is in what form Anna is after her illness.

 

[chasingneverland]

Thing is Anna’s only been attempting one quad this season and Alena hasn’t attempted any triple axels in competition. I don’t see Anna jumping from one to three for Nationals (especially with time off ice for pneumonia recently) and the outlook for Alena having a triple axel by then isn’t great. IMO a clean three quad program from Sasha would only be beatable this year by Kamila based on what we’ve seen (which could be really close...Kamila would have the lower value quads and only 2 vs 3 but her quality would keep her competitive...it could come down to hitting a triple axel in the short).

The question was from last year and why she needed to add more.

And Anna does have both her quad lutz and flip back. She's actually going between them based on practices as they're not completely stable, but they're both back.

 

[sparklestan]

Thing is Anna’s only been attempting one quad this season and Alena hasn’t attempted any triple axels in competition. I don’t see Anna jumping from one to three for Nationals (especially with time off ice for pneumonia recently) and the outlook for Alena having a triple axel by then isn’t great. IMO a clean three quad program from Sasha would only be beatable this year by Kamila based on what we’ve seen (which could be really close...Kamila would have the lower value quads and only 2 vs 3 but her quality would keep her competitive...it could come down to hitting a triple axel in the short).

I could see Kamila adding a 3A to the free program for nationals.

 

[TripleAxelQueens3]

A clean 3 quad program is extremely difficult, even for Sasha. Last season they tried this strategy - either GPF, Nats, or Euros and it was still a disaster. And she didn't have any room for mistakes, so that probably put her off.

Sasha was clear in her interview after leaving Eteri that she was upset because they limited her jumping, so I think she'll try all her quads.

It's hard for Sasha because she needs to have 3 clean quads and land the 3A but Alena/Anna/Kamila don't because they have the spins + PCS. Especially Kamila.

It's interesting how the 3 were able to add quads/3As faster than Sasha was able to improve her spins and PCS.

Actually in GPF she tried a whopping five quads (2 backloaded) and in Nats she also tried four.

Also, I think Sasha's PCS, at least performance and skating skills, have never been bad. I just think she needs the right type of program. She's trying to make her SP this season work, and it's working quite well honestly. But her forte are those powerful, fun programs like Big Spender, Kill Bill, Unstoppable, her EX this season is great too. And from my limited knowledge of skating it makes sense that learning/adding a quad/3A is easier than fixing PCS, since for example, skating skills are the basis of all skating. And if you add too many transitions at once, it can make jumping harder, so it's best to go for a long run route there. For performance and interpretation, I guess one just has to try to get rid of habit or step out of the comfort zone.

 

[Novalis]

I could see Kamila adding a 3A to the free program for nationals.

Yes, please!

 

[kirauza343]

The question was from last year and why she needed to add more.

And Anna does have both her quad lutz and flip back. She's actually going between them based on practices as they're not completely stable, but they're both back.

Sorry, my bad. I interpreted your original post as saying that Anna and Alena could match a three quad program from Sasha at Nationals this year based on their form last year so I was just saying that I don’t see either of the being in that kind of form right now.

She does, but having them back in practice is different from jumping into Nationals with three quads in the free skate after significant time off ice and after only attempting one at her last competition. I can see her going for two but I don’t think three is a good idea at this point (should Worlds happen though I can see her going for it then). She still has a great shot at winning even with just two since Sasha needs to be clean (and that’s something she’s struggled with in 3+ quad programs) and the domestic judges love Anna.

 

[Jontor]

Only 2 skaters have won Russian Nationals 3 times in a row (or more)

Maria Butyrskaya 1995-1999 (5 times) (total 6 titles)
Irina Slutskaya 2000-2002 (3 times) (total 4 titles)

There is one skater who has the chance to win 3 times in a row here...I'm not saying who it is as I don't want to jinx it...

 

[TripleAxelQueens3]

A blast from the past (really only 2 years ago but still!):
Valieva, Usacheva, Akatieva, Samodelkina and Muravyeva together!

 

[Amei]

There were definitely plans for more than one at Nationals, as I heard in interview. No need to take risks at Russian Cup. (Or maybe no need to reveal all cards?) But the sickness may have changed the plans, we will see.

Shcherbakova and/or her coaches seem to understand there's no need to rush back the quads right now, the plan was to add another at the GP event then another at Nationals; granted now that she had to take time off for illness we'll see how that affects the plan at Nationals. I could see her winning with 2 quads, she scores well on her other elements and her PCS scores (being 2-time defending champ doesn't hurt), but hopefully the allure of that 3 title doesn't cause her to rush back. Trusova is a wildcard and the triple axel in the SP hasn't really given her an advantage there in scoring since she hasn't been clean with it and Shcherbakova should have an advantage in non-jump elements over her; Valieva is actually more dangerous in my opinion because she and Shcherbakova are pretty equal in terms of spins/step-sequences/PCS, but the triple axel is new for her (so is she consistent with it in competition) and while she has the quad toe it's a lower value quad than what Shcherbakova has. Shcherbakova has scored very well beating Valieva's scores on her quads and only 3 of Trusova's quads with 2 of them back-loaded combinations have outscored her quads

Shcherbakova's quads: 14.74 and 13.86
Valieva's quads: 13.27 (combo), 12.35, 4.75 (+ a -1 for a fall), 13.65 (combo)
Trusova's quads: 7.36, 17.12 (combo), 12.54, 13.39, 15.87, 4.94 (+ a -1 for a fall), 18.77 (back-loaded combo), 5.24 (+ a -1 for a fall), 4.60 (+ a -1 for a fall), 3.80 (+ a -1 for a fall), 13.26 (back-loaded combo)

 

[Novalis]

A blast from the past (really only 2 years ago but still!):
Valieva, Usacheva, Akatieva, Samodelkina and Muravyeva together!

About 60% of them are Sofias

 

[macy]

i really think nationals is going to be a toss up, i can't come up with any solid, confident predictions. 3 of the top ladies were sick and missed training time in the last couple weeks, Trusova bombed last competition, Kamila looks like the favorite going in. i think it's going to be anyone's game.

 

[Fried]

All these mind games are IMO completely pointless since Rostelecom GP at the latest. The virus is on the move in the teams and yet they are obviously going on rather carefree. All statements on health conditions should therefore be treated with caution. In addition, the situation can change every hour as soon as someone tests positive. But even the tests seem to be rather unreliable. Getting no news from the skaters could mean anything and nothing. Basically, the Nationals are the purest farce, no matter how well it is meant.

 

[Fluture]

I think at this point, Valieva is the clear favorite, with Shcherbakova in close second. Trusova is a total wildcard - she could either win it all or fall off the podium completely.

The others - Tuktamysheva, Kostornaya, Usacheva - have too many weak areas to realistically challenge for the win. Tuktamysheva and Kostornaya both had covid recently, missed trainings and likely lost some shape. And neither Kostornaya nor Usacheva seem to have any ultra-c elements at the moment. I‘d say they have a fair chance at the podium, though, if one of the above don‘t perform as well. Shcherbakova was sick, too, but she‘s had the most time to recover.

So, yeah. My prediction is Valieva for Gold and Shcherbakova and Trusova for Silver or Bronze. Tuktamysheva, Usacheva and Kostornaya to make up the rest of the top 6.

Just for fun:
1. Valieva
2. Shcherbakova
3. Trusova
4. Usacheva
5. Tuktamysheva
6. Kostornaya

Kostornaya being so low kind of breaks my heart but she was already scored lower on the Cup series than Usacheva, missed the most training time of the top 6 during the summer and now got covid as well. So, if she attends, I can‘t see her do too well, just because she‘s got basically all the cards stacked against her.

And now I’m waiting to watch the whole thing fall apart and my predictions crumble.