2020-21 Russian Ladies' Figure Skating

[Vilord]

I wouldn't really say so because with the girl on ball program I think that her performing was just fine. It just is not right for Bolero. I think Kamila Valieva does "power skating" almost throughout the program when the beginning really would call for more delicacy and vulnerability. It's a transformation/metamorphosis/development-type piece of music but the performing is so one note, dunno. Hard to put it into words but I just know when a program does or does not work for me.

I know what you mean and I have had similair problems with almost all of Kamillas programs (apart from this years short which I think is great). All of Kamillas programs Bolero, Exogenisis and girl on the ball have started out with slow understated sweping music that throughout the program bulids. But she has skated with a similair stength and sharpness throughout the program. And in all these programs this kind of skating has worked great with the latter half of the program but not the beginning. Also Danny Gs Choreo with exessive transistions which works great when the music is building or in a pice ike a comme amore (my favoruite of Annas programs) makes this even more startling.The music is slow with long notes but Kamilla will do the fast paced choreo with a sharpness of movements that dont match the tone of the music.

I honestly put the blame more on Eteri and Danny G than on Kamilla though. I think the main issue is either in the choice of music or in how they build the program to the music.

 

[MaggieLin]

So, now Krivonosova, 3rd competition win in 10 days. 6 days with a program, 4 days without in that time frame. And now for the first time competing in the sports 1 category, received a winning score of 179.87 which is very good. One random fall, but not during an element - no elements received negative GOE.

Also Melkumova's comeback program. It was good, almost clean when it comes to jumps, and better than her SP overall. But still, the actual PCS performing just wasn't there. We'll see... 163.83 total.

Krivonosova improved a lot in the past season. She used to be one of the "whole packages except for jumps" for me and now her jumps are catching up. Very charming performer.

With Melkumova - that LP already looks much better. I'm genuinely impressed - pretty much every jumping element is new - I've never seen her landing 3lz1lo3s, 3t3t, and 3f2t. Jumps are a bit small, but okay considering her injury was on the leg and she's still in recovery.

 

[chasingneverland]

Hasn't Nugumanova been doing better with her UR issues lately? I'm not sure why people consider it an impossibility. If Tuktamysheva's sent over her even if she defeats her twice in a row, that'd be a pretty lowly move in my eyes. They even sent Konstantinova in 2018. And almost had to pay for that decision, but hey.

She's a much more engaging performer than Tuktamysheva for sure, although I wouldn't send her over an in-form Kostornaya. But, I would send her over the early season Kostornaya.

Because it wouldn't be a straight 2-0 score. They already said they'll be looking at body of work and all competitons.

Liza T beat Liza N at the third stage and Rostelecom. So you could say that she beat Liza T twice in a row (if it happens, right now it's 2-1) but it's also true that Liza T already beat Liza N twice in a row too. Aliona beat Liza N, while still early season form, at the fourth stage and at Rostelecom. Liza N has yet to beat Aliona even an early season one. And both Liza T and Aliona have higher potentials as well as (much) better international reputations and (much) better international PCS.

Also Liza N's highest international score is around a 188. And she hasn't upgraded since then. Liza T's highest international score is a 234. Aliona's highest international score without 3As is a 217 and that's with junior scoring and junior PCS. So probably about 220-225 with her current senior layout, PCS, and reputation. That means to even reach the level Aliona and Liza T are already at (so without upgrades of a 3A or quad, respectively), Liza N needs to beat her international personal best score by over 32 points to come close to what would be a very low score for either of the Liza T or Aliona.

EDITED to add: Also it kinda depends how Liza N beats them. Because if it's because she's clean and they both fall then one of Liza T or Aliona definitely will go - it will be chalked up to a one off or a fluke. Also keep in mind Liza N has only beat either of them once whereas they're 4-1 against her and Liza N's one victory was close. Also Liza N had the skate of her life there while Liza T wasn't clean and has performed much better. And even then with a subpar skate from Liza T and the best skate Liza N has EVER done, there was less than a point between them. (And Aliona wasn't there.)

Another point is that despite the fact that Anna and Sasha have faced intense pressure during a competition and have the technical prowess to beat everyone (even if not completely clean) with the outside chance of Rika if she's clean, it IS still their first World's and first big international senior competition. Russia will want to send the highest chance of getting 3 spots at the Olympics across all three skaters to try to alleviate some of the pressure on Anna and Sasha - they're both only 16. That means sending skaters with the best international PCS and reputation because international judges will save them if they falter.

 

[chasingneverland]

I say just let them win the third spot in direct fight, plain and straight.
Anna and Sasha are going to get three Olympic spots anyway.

They've already said they're going to look at multiple competitions. They said that before RusNats. That means that this just improves or worsens your position. And not just for the World's spot but also for GP spots and the national team.

 

[Scott512]

It's obviously an unlikely situation to begin with, but I wonder what RusFed would do if Liza N. somehow came out on top here, like if she was absolutely clean and Alena and Liza T both splatted. I would have thought that Liza T would be pushed over her, but they weren't shy at all about letting Liza N beat her at Rusnats - weren't they less than a point apart? They could've saved her and yet they didn't.

She goes Karina. She goes. In a fair world that is and we know the fed is not always fair.

It will be very hard for anyone to break through ahead of AK or Liza. But let's see what happens.

 

[starlight97]

They've already said they're going to look at multiple competitions. They said that before RusNats. That means that this just improves or worsens your position

As we say in my language: They say many things if the day is long.
Meaning they say whatever they want and most is bullsh**. Then do the opposite if they please. For Alena there is literally only 1 other competition to look at anyways and they couldn't care less about some skate from 3 months ago.
They'll decide Liza vs. Alena based on this event. And if they have decided they prefer to send one over the other, they will find their ways to do that even in spite of the results or fairness. Aka World spot Liza vs Medvedeva some time ago.

 

[chasingneverland]

As we say in my language: They say many things if the day is long.
Meaning they say whatever they want and most is bullsh**. Then do the opposite if they please. For Alena there is literally only 1 other competition to look at anyways and they couldn't care less about some skate from 3 months ago.
They'll decide Liza vs. Alena based on this event. And if they have decided they prefer to send one over the other, they will find their ways to do that even in spite of the results or fairness. Aka World spot Liza vs Medvedeva some time ago.

Oh, I'm agreeing with you. They'll ONLY send one of Liza T or Aliona, barring catastrophe and injury that can't be recovered from in time. And it's most likely going to be Aliona.

In fact you KNOW they're even more likely to look at body of work and reputation and PCS and who they want to take BECAUSE they said that they'll look at everything. The winner of this goes IF she's Aliona. If it's Liza T, then it's possible if Liza T beats Aliona by a lot and it's not a fluke. And if it's anyone else, they'll still send one of Aliona or Liza.

 

[chasingneverland]

Why doesn't Sasha go for the 4F? I know she has edge problems but even with the edge call she would still earn more points for a 4F than a 3F

She couldn't practice it due to injuries. Same with the 3A and other quads. And they were trying to lower the number of quads to have her be more consistent in competition. Her 4Lz has improved too and it's the highest scoring jump.

 

[TripleAxelQueens3]

I think sending Liza N would be a good decision in a way since she's a skater than can really build the support of the audience. Of course I don't think she would necessarily be a podium threat though, which is what I think RusFed really wants. I doubt they'd send her unless for some reason Alyona and Liza T bomb (which I hope they don't) and Liza N goes perfectly clean (which I do hope happens). I mean they did send Stasya to Worlds back in 2018 even though Polina Tsurskaya had much more impressive results that season, so it's not impossible.

 

[brakes]

I've always felt there is grain of truth in the stories of "Khrustalnyi" coach sucking young maidens' blood. I just assumed it was Eteri...

https://www.instagram.com/p/CLZwsXVpVvv/

 

[chasingneverland]

I think sending Liza N would be a good decision in a way since she's a skater than can really build the support of the audience. Of course I don't think she would necessarily be a podium threat though, which is what I think RusFed really wants. I doubt they'd send her unless for some reason Alyona and Liza T bomb (which I hope they don't) and Liza N goes perfectly clean (which I do hope happens). I mean they did send Stasya to Worlds back in 2018 even though Polina Tsurskaya had much more impressive results that season, so it's not impossible.

Stasya was (even kinda still is) a fed favourite. Liza N has never been and she's already 18. And Liza N isn't a podium threat at her best, barring crazy crazy crazy meltdowns from several people. She would need a junior grand prix final level skate from Anna and even then with junior scoring and junior program layouts Anna was only 7 points behind Liza N's international best. With senior scoring, her current layout, and senior PCS, it's not even close, especially as now even with meltdowns Anna has more quads than she did then. Sasha's worst skates with meltdowns are around 220-230. That's over 30 points higher than Liza N's international HIGH. And I except both Anna and Sasha to get even better PCS now. So even with meltdowns such that we haven't seen from Anna or Sasha Liza N won't get close - she's at least 30 points behind them with meltdowns. So that leaves the third spot. Rika. Rika has yet to put together her full arsenal and land everything cleanly and even then she's about 220-230 which is the same as a not clean Anna or Sasha. That's a 40 point difference from her best to them with subpar, catastrophic skates!

Okay, so who else is there? Bradie? Bradie tends to score in the 215-220 range. That's around a 27 point difference. Karen? She also isn't known for her consistency at all but Karen's international best is 13 points higher than Liza N's. And Karen is a stunning skater with gorgeous spins who will be going as US's number 2. Satoko? Now Satoko also struggles with underrotations, but even then she hasn't scored as low as Liza N's international best since 2015. And Liza N can't match her in PCS. Plus even there Satoko's international best is 31 points higher than Liza N's. Kaori? She's struggled at times. But she also tends to score above 200 and can easily score around 220. Plus both Satoko and Kaori will have much more federation support.

So it's not that she isn't necessarily a podium threat. It's that she ISN'T close to one. She would need meltdowns from 5 of those 7 and even with meltdowns she hasn't come close to reaching their meltdown skates. (And 3 of them she can't even touch even with meltdowns.)

Whereas even without her 3As Aliona is 220+ (at least might be closer to 225+) and even without clean skates Liza T tends to be between 205-215 and can score 230+ when clean. And I think it would be crazy to think Aliona or Liza T wouldn't have the support of the audience even if not clean. Plus Aliona in particular has MUCH higher PCS (Aliona gets the highest PCS in the world) and MUCH more Fed support.

Is it impossible? No...but Aliona and Liza T would have to really really really not be able to go.

 

[Shayuki]

She impresses me. Her talent does not hit me in the face like, let's say, Kostyleva's or early Valieva's, but she is just very good in every element of figure skating craft: good jumper, spinner, glider, performer and last but no least - delivering in competition.

With her, the most impressive thing is her musical interpretation and her "outgoing performing".

Even with the FS choreo being bit of a mess with the awkward music cuts - due to them having had to change it for the significantly longer FS duration of the sports 1 category - which caused most of the choreo to be completely out of sync, she still interpreted the music as it was playing, a lot of it most likely straight up improvised. I also think she's very precise. This is seen with the skating skills especially, not sloppy at all and with so much control, but also her spins for instance don't travel at all, etc. Her posture also is very upright.

All of this she of course has had for years, she also always was a good competitor with solid consistency, I think. The real surprise this season is the jumps, which really are huge now. And her off-ice 3Axel went from a downgrade this past summer to effortlessly fully around by January. She improved so much in less than a year, it barely makes sense.

But, of the two programs, the SP is much better than the FS:



Hopefully she repeats the SP next season and gets a more detailed FS, you can tell the FS choreo's somewhat dated and not up to her current standards like the SP is. PCS for the SP was also much higher than for the FS.


By the way, as I mentioned earlier while complaining about Kamila's Bolero how its beginning parts especially don't really work with music. I think that Krivonosova's SP is exactly how you want to have the beginning of the program going with the music, from the spin to the buildup to the first jump, brilliant choreographing.

 

[readernick]

Whole post

Agree that they won't send Liza N even though artistically she is my favorite this year. She could definitely be beat by a large number of skaters. All the Japanese, all the Americans, all the Koreans. Likely Leona Hendrick, too. It wouldn't be a smart choice for the federation. When without her 3A, Aliona will be a favorite with the international judges and, if she rotates her jumps, she should score 220-225. Just a minor correction though, Rika's highest international score was just over 233 with a fall on a 3A. She doesn't score 220-230 clean. She scores over 230 with mistakes, that isn't what she would score if clean. If clean,( especially now with 4S) she should score in the 240-250 range. Now, will she be clean? That's a different question.

 

[TripleAxelQueens3]

Stasya was (even kinda still is) a fed favourite. Liza N has never been and she's already 18. And Liza N isn't a podium threat at her best, barring crazy crazy crazy meltdowns from several people. She would need a junior grand prix final level skate from Anna and even then with junior scoring and junior program layouts Anna was only 7 points behind Liza N's international best. With senior scoring, her current layout, and senior PCS, it's not even close, especially as now even with meltdowns Anna has more quads than she did then. Sasha's worst skates with meltdowns are around 220-230. That's over 30 points higher than Liza N's international HIGH. And I except both Anna and Sasha to get even better PCS now. So even with meltdowns such that we haven't seen from Anna or Sasha Liza N won't get close - she's at least 30 points behind them with meltdowns. So that leaves the third spot. Rika. Rika has yet to put together her full arsenal and land everything cleanly and even then she's about 220-230 which is the same as a not clean Anna or Sasha. That's a 40 point difference from her best to them with subpar, catastrophic skates!

Okay, so who else is there? Bradie? Bradie tends to score in the 215-220 range. That's around a 27 point difference. Karen? She also isn't known for her consistency at all but Karen's international best is 13 points higher than Liza N's. And Karen is a stunning skater with gorgeous spins who will be going as US's number 2. Satoko? Now Satoko also struggles with underrotations, but even then she hasn't scored as low as Liza N's international best since 2015. And Liza N can't match her in PCS. Plus even there Satoko's international best is 31 points higher than Liza N's. Kaori? She's struggled at times. But she also tends to score above 200 and can easily score around 220. Plus both Satoko and Kaori will have much more federation support.

So it's not that she isn't necessarily a podium threat. It's that she ISN'T close to one. She would need meltdowns from 5 of those 7 and even with meltdowns she hasn't come close to reaching their meltdown skates. (And 3 of them she can't even touch even with meltdowns.)

Whereas even without her 3As Aliona is 220+ (at least might be closer to 225+) and even without clean skates Liza T tends to be between 205-215 and can score 230+ when clean. And I think it would be crazy to think Aliona or Liza T wouldn't have the support of the audience even if not clean. Plus Aliona in particular has MUCH higher PCS (Aliona gets the highest PCS in the world) and MUCH more Fed support.

Is it impossible? No...but Aliona and Liza T would have to really really really not be able to go.

But you're taking Liza N's international best, which is nowhere near her state this season, and then taking Satoko's international best which may or may not be her state right now. She's only gone to one competition. I could very well say Mai Mihara's SB is 220.58 and thus she could be a gold medal threat at Worlds (if she were to go). Of course those are different cases but I just feel like taking a SB from two seasons ago is a bit illogical (especially considering Satoko hasn't scored near 220 ever since). I agree with your overall argument but I feel like that reasoning is a little bit flawed. In early 18/19 Satoko wasn't being punished for things like URs since she was still sort of Japan's No. 1. Now with Rika and Kaori both above her, her score have been lower.

All in all, I'm sure RusFed probably won't send Liza N so all this is for nothing.

 

[colormyworld240]

It's obviously an unlikely situation to begin with, but I wonder what RusFed would do if Liza N. somehow came out on top here, like if she was absolutely clean and Alena and Liza T both splatted. I would have thought that Liza T would be pushed over her, but they weren't shy at all about letting Liza N beat her at Rusnats - weren't they less than a point apart? They could've saved her and yet they didn't.

The simple answer is they won't put her on top.

Unless both Alena and Liza have a complete meltdown, with more than 3 falls, and Nugumanova is completely clean with no URs. Unfortunately, Nugumanova does not have a strong international reputation (the last time she did a full international season was JGPs) and she's up against European/World champs. She would get lower PCS internationally even if she's clean and the fed knows this.

 

[TripleAxelQueens3]

Krivonosova's SP is just so good! It's filled with personality, detail, but also makes time for the jumps and spins. And the fact that she's like 11 (is she 11?) is just insane. I really love everything about her skating, except for the final position in the layback, which just looks kind of awkward to me? I think I've just found another novice to follow!

 

[chasingneverland]

But you're taking Liza N's international best, which is nowhere near her state this season, and then taking Satoko's international best which may or may not be her state right now. She's only gone to one competition. I could very well say Mai Mihara's SB is 220.58 and thus she could be a gold medal threat at Worlds (if she were to go). Of course those are different cases but I just feel like taking a SB from two seasons ago is a bit illogical (especially considering Satoko hasn't scored near 220 ever since). I agree with your overall argument but I feel like that reasoning is a little bit flawed. In early 18/19 Satoko wasn't being punished for things like URs since she was still sort of Japan's No. 1. Now with Rika and Kaori both above her, her score have been lower.

All in all, I'm sure RusFed probably won't send Liza N so all this is for nothing.

I'm looking at Satoko's average "even then she hasn't scored as low as Liza N's international best since 2015". So even in her current stake she's above Liza N. International judges are giving her around 200 - yes even taking into account the fact she's now being punished for URs. Besides, there is NO guarantee they won't punish Liza N. The committee that would punish Satoko would also punish Liza N and she doesn't have the PCS or reputation to make up for some of it.

 

[chasingneverland]

Agree that they won't send Liza N even though artistically she is my favorite this year. She could definitely be beat by a large number of skaters. All the Japanese, all the Americans, all the Koreans. Likely Leona Hendrick, too. It wouldn't be a smart choice for the federation. When without her 3A, Aliona will be a favorite with the international judges and, if she rotates her jumps, she should score 220-225. Just a minor correction though, Rika's highest international score was just over 233 with a fall on a 3A. She doesn't score 220-230 clean. She scores over 230 with mistakes, that isn't what she would score if clean. If clean,( especially now with 4S) she should score in the 240-250 range. Now, will she be clean? That's a different question.

I was giving scores to Anna, Sasha, AND Rika WITH big mistakes, around 220-230, showing that even with catastrophic skates from Anna, Sasha, and Rika, Liza N doesn't have the tech (or PCS or reputation) to come even close to capitalizing. "That's a 40 point difference from her best to them (Anna, Sasha, and Rika) with subpar, catastrophic skates!"

Really, Liza N would struggle to capitalize on mistakes and would need to be perfect to even overtake big mistakes from the levels of Aliona (without a 3A) or Liza T, and even there their reputations and PCS would save them.

 

[TripleAxelQueens3]

I'm looking at Satoko's average "even then she hasn't scored as low as Liza N's international best since 2015". So even in her current stake she's above Liza N. International judges are giving her around 200 - yes even taking into account the fact she's now being punished for URs. Besides, there is NO guarantee they won't punish Liza N. The committee that would punish Satoko would also punish Liza N and she doesn't have the PCS or reputation to make up for some of it.

In a hypothetical world, if Liza N were to perform like she did at RusNats, where almost everything was rotated, I don't see why judges would punish her for URs that don't exist. Also, "Liza N's international best" may not be an accurate representation of her actual best. Looking at the protocols from that event, she got a ton of UR calls. At her actual best (aka RusNats) she got one UR call (maybe one could make the argument she deserved more). And RusFed has shown they are willing to give Liza most of the points she deserves on a good day (hence placing her above Liza T overall and Maiia in the SP). However, again, I doubt they'd give her the spot even if she did well because she's not well-known nor a podium contender.

Of course I don't doubt that Satoko would beat Liza N even if the former did UR some. She'd get 9s PCS and Liza N, despite deserving high 8s and maybe low 9s depending on the day, would probably get high 7s.

 

[Tonight's the Night]

With her, the most impressive thing is her musical interpretation and her "outgoing performing".


But, of the two programs, the SP is much better than the FS:



Hopefully she repeats the SP next season and gets a more detailed FS, you can tell the FS choreo's somewhat dated and not up to her current standards like the SP is. PCS for the SP was also much higher than for the FS.

By the way, as I mentioned earlier while complaining about Kamila's Bolero how its beginning parts especially don't really work with music. I think that Krivonosova's SP is exactly how you want to have the beginning of the program going with the music, from the spin to the buildup to the first jump, brilliant choreographing.

Your repeated postings about Krivonosova have made me watch several of her programs, and ... I ain't complainin'. I am very impressed by that short program. I think the only thing not quite as good is the step sequence: it seems a little slow and over-cautious to me. But I love the spins, I love the musicality, I love the performance.

You forgot to mention the moonwalk at 00:42. And what's going on with her hands at 01:51 -- is she firing guns while spinning? And talk about "outgoing": instead of bowing at the end, she gives the judges the blazing guns one more time.