2020-21 Russian Ladies' Figure Skating

[flanker]

On their way to Japan:

 

[melsh]

the truth is that the Russian girls have to be the absolute best twice in the season. being on the podium at Nationals is not nearly enough to be Olympic medalists. they also have to survive the intense fatigue of Nats, which is like expecting an Olympic gold medalist to win Worlds one month later. In my opinion, the favourites will be so stressed out that the dark horses with big talent and less pressure will overcome the gap.
Remember that even the sacred monster Hanyu made mistakes at both Olympics. So don't assume that those who have one or two quads will always prevail on the ones who 'only' have the triple axel. If anything, the formers have to take a bigger risk.

 

[silveruskate]

For Maiia to have the best chance she needs to shorten the entries to her quads so it doesn't kill her PCS. The SP will always be her catching up unless she gets a 3A.

 

[lurkerghost1]

IMO step sequence is pretty tiring for legs, spins too. It is not "light choreography" nor killing time by default. If it was, it should be reflected in PCS, but it wasn't so it isn't, to paraphrase sir Humphrey Appleby. And if that would be so easy as some claim now, than we definitely would see much more of fully backloaded programs. Well, three years before it was about "jumps are not evrything", but now it seems like "jumps are the only thing"

My eternal problem with how the layout is done now consists of wondering why we escaped from the "all programs layouts can possibly look like 0-7 in the future" to "truly all programs layouts are 4-3 currently and nothing motivates anyone to do it different way" and we cheer for how superduper excellent it is. It isn't.

Actually I think it’s better to have 4-3 because now it’s about the risk of who is willing to put 3 combos in the 2nd half. With Alina’s layout at the Olympics she still had the combos as the first three jumps which let her tack the loop on when she missed the lutz. It’s very exciting to watch a skater like Sinitsyna or Matsuike or Tursynbaeva backload all three combos because it shows how confident they are in hitting them

 

[flanker]

Actually I think it’s better to have 4-3 because now it’s about the risk of who is willing to put 3 combos in the 2nd half. With Alina’s layout at the Olympics she still had the combos as the first three jumps which let her tack the loop on when she missed the lutz. It’s very exciting to watch a skater like Sinitsyna or Matsuike or Tursynbaeva backload all three combos because it shows how confident they are in hitting them

Yes, some skaters risk all three combos in the second half, but Alina was risking all three combos AND another four jumps in the second half.

 

[silveruskate]

Doing your hardest elements as the last of your jumps is nowhere close to the same. Regardless of where in the program they are.

 

[chasingneverland]

I also have a feeling that Maiia will surprise everyone next season.

I agree. The question is more will (1) that be enough and (2) will she be allowed to go ahead of others.

 

[voolfee]

Alina's SS are not good enough to be an ice dancer. She's a fantastic performer and wonderful skater, but her SS are not her strong suit.

Alina is/was the best ladies skater of the cycle. (Or at least the first half.) However, she didn't earn those medals due to her skating prowess. In fact, I would say that was her main weakness.

Kanysheva and Zagitova had completely different levels of skating skills when they were competing so I’m not sure that comparison is favourable to Zagitova. Alina would be decimated by ice dance judges if she unwisely decided to switch to that discipline. The girl can’t even do crossovers and hops and cheats all her turns, and is very slow with bad posture

And Kanysheva actually was known for her good skating skills, Zagitova never was.

Haven't come here for a long time and apparently lost little. If I fall asleep and wake up in a hundred years and they ask me what is happening on goldenskate, I will say: Alina's skating skills are being belittled. Alina has some of the best skating skills in women's skating, this is her strong suit. I don’t understand how this can be denied? Some people have their own parallel reality, where Alina has poor skating skills. There may be some problems in Daniil's programs, but you only need to see the bad in order to say that.

 

[LiamV426]

I'm very surprised everyone is so convinced Alena would make the team with 3 3A. Even supposing she would get back to 2020 consistency and GOE, wich I doubt, her momentum from that season is long gone.
She can't touch Kamila at all, period. If Darya gets the 3A it will be head to head cause Darya does have all of Alena's strong points as well, in terms of GOE and PCS, while if Darya gets a 4 on top, she can't touch her either. Anna with her usual content of 3 4s will most likely go ahead of her as well, especially now that Alena has no more momentum or favorite status while Anna is the most established senior with her three national and one world titles. If Sasha lands her 3A in the Short and 3 4s in the Free or 4 4s in the Free only, that shall also pull ahead of Alena, no matter how inferior Sasha is in all other aspects.
That's 5 girls, her included, competing for 3 spots. And that's leaving Maya out of the mix.
And tbh, I can't see Kamila, Darya or Sasha regress "Eteri style" next season, unless they get injured. Kamila and Darya are perfect peaking age. And Sasha has a very special build, another coach now and has only improved her 4s height and power this season, a quiet impressive feat under the circumstances. If she could finally get her mind trained as well and stop constantly failing at the actual competition, beware everyone.
The one I can see regress in typical fashion next season is Anna, she turned 17 now and the last time we saw her she was struggling on the quads. But that remains to be seen and she can, once again, surprise everyone and come through.

So, I'd be much more surprised to actually see Alena on the team than I would be not seeing her. And I say that with her being my absolute favorite skater.

I don't think anyone is *convinced* Aliona will make the team with 3*3A, it's just her chances aren't worse than anyone else's (except Kamila's who is practically a lock at this point, and I would put Anna ahead for now due to her World Champion status).

It's all just speculation: Will Aliona regain her 3A? Will Daria get a 3A/Quad? Will Sasha be able to deliver the when the pressure is higher than ever?

If Aliona does regain her 3A and consistency, the pressure is still on the other girls to deliver on their Quads in order to beat her, and in some cases that still won't be enough (Maia won't beat her with 2 Quads). Sasha has only beaten Aliona once(???) since they both turned senior and it was when she had no 3A. A clean Aliona at the next Nationals will most likely score 90 in the short and 170 in the free so the others will need to be clean to beat her. Daria has never shown an Ultra-C element in competition and she will need to add *both* a Quad and 3A to beat Aliona, will it affect her consistency?

Obviously she may never get the 3A back, or if she does she might not get the same consistency with it. That may be a sad reality her fans will need to accept in a few months time and I am prepared for it, but considering she still has the rest of her jumps I'm pretty optimistic she can regain it.

It's not over for anyone.

 

[Minz]

It’s not over until it’s over. Anything can happen. But we are in for a crazy season.

 

[Thrashergurl]

Anything can happen for any of these girls. Illnesses, injuries, coaching changes, landing 3axels and quads. I would not count any of these girls out.
At this moment, my money would be on Kamila winning Olympic gold. She’s clearly Russia’s #1. But....I think Sasha might be the dark horse and spoil Kamila’s coronation.
My thoughts could change in a month, or at the beginning of next season. Néw skating stars will emerge and we never know what elements they’ll land, or if any of them will remain healthy.

 

[Dawn825]

If Maiia is landing her quads next year, she'll get the same PCS as all the other Eteri skaters, or near enough not to make a difference. I doubt Aliona or Daria will have any leeway over her by being more beautiful skaters. TCS will be the most important score.

 

[chasingneverland]

If Maiia is landing her quads next year, she'll get the same PCS as all the other Eteri skaters, or near enough not to make a difference. I doubt Aliona or Daria will have any leeway over her by being more beautiful skaters. TCS will be the most important score.

I would agree with that but look at the Cup Final.

Maiia landed both her quads. She got a 71.36. (She was clean everyone else but got an unclear edge call on the 3F. Both she and Sasha have been getting those calls domestically all year.) (She got a 66.23 with a fall on the 4T at RusNats and her 3F was called there too.)

Daria was completely clean, although naturally no "ultra-c" elements. She got a 72.56 (aka beating Maiia without "ultra-c" elements.) (She got a 72.91 for a perfect skate at RusNats.)

Kamila landed a stunning 3A but then fell and under-rotated her 4S, had a disaster of an element on her 4T+1Eu+3S (with it basically not a combo anymore and invalidating her 3S although she didn't fall), and fell on a down-graded 4T. She got a 72 (aka beat Maiia in PCS even with a disaster of a FS). (This would be 76/77 plus if she was close to clean. She got a 76.32 at RusNats and her technical content has increased since then.)

Liza was perfect other than a step out on her 3A until her final spin which was..not a spin haha. She got a 73.76. (Some of that could be World's Championship boost as obviously she was a main contender for the team.) (She got a 70.41 at RusNats but wasn't perfect with a fall on her second 3A and a popped 3Lo into a 2Lo and other issues.)

Aliona struggled under-rotating her 3F and 3Lz and having step-sequence issues and not up to her standard spins. She got a 72.72 (aka also beat Maiia without any "ultra-c" elements and an imperfect skate.) (She's also Aliona though and is the reigning GPF and Euros champion.)

For reference, at RusNats:
Anna was perfect, landing 2 quads and making her own coaches cry. She got a 77.09 at RusNats. (Different competitions yes but I don't expect that number to go down domestically as she's now the 3x reigning RusNats champion and reigning World champion.)

Sasha was also perfect, landing 2 quads. She got a 72.86 at RusNats. (She as with Maiia were called on their 3F.) (But different competitions yes but I also expect her to stay above Maiia. The RusFed has shown that internationally they will support her when she struggles. They do however want consistency but her scoring potential is higher than anyone's except maybe Kamila.)

Kamila was also perfect, landing 2 quads. She got a 76.32 at RusNats. (She did get a q on her 3F.) (Once again, a different competition yes but I also expect her to stay multiple points ahead of Maiia (around Anna).)

Aka, even within the Eteri girls there is a wide range of PCS. None of them are underscored persay but you can tell whom the RusFed is really pushing for. Consistency does help though. Aliona and Daria's scores are also high enough right now - higher than Maiia for instance. But if they get even one "ultra-c" element they will go even higher. Aliona in particular will score around 77 plus if she gets her 3A back.

It's kinda why I disagree that there is a blanket "Eteri bonus" because not all of her skaters get it. (For the record that applies for all coaches, Sofia S and Anastasiia G aren't treated the same as Liza T, etc.)
I think there's also a reputation/results bonus going on as well as well as what the RusFed thinks of your progress/potential. That's arguably much stronger. For example, Aliona still got good PCS while with Plushy.

 

[Dawn825]

Maiia got a 66 for her FS at Russian Nationals, so it went up 5 points when she finally skated clean. Consistency almost always translates to a PCS boost. If she starts looking like a reliable Olympic medal contender with 2 quads, the fed will probably want to help her. You're right that there is a spread among the Eteri girls, and I don't expect Maiia to reach Kamila levels, but Daria hasn't been getting any PCS gifts. Maybe Aliona with "just" triple axels could be a threat with all her fed support, but Idk about Daria.

 

[chasingneverland]

Maiia got a 66 for her FS at Russian Nationals, so it went up 5 points when she finally skated clean. Consistency almost always translates to a PCS boost. If she starts looking like a reliable Olympic medal contender with 2 quads, the fed will probably want to help her. You're right that there is a spread among the Eteri girls, and I don't expect Maiia to reach Kamila levels, but Daria hasn't been getting any PCS gifts. Maybe Aliona with "just" triple axels could be a threat with all her fed support, but Idk about Daria.

Yes. It did go up. But it didn't go up to Anna/Kamila levels. It barely touched Sasha levels. And Kamila, Anna, Aliona, etc will go up too.

Yes, hers went up, but it still is lower than everyone else's and NONE of them were clean. Maiia had the best skate she's ever had. Everyone else made mistakes.

Daria has been getting PCS around Aliona actually. She's been consistently in the 71-72 range. That's higher than anyone that isn't Anna or Kamila (and occasionally higher than Liza T, Sasha, etc.) And that's without an "ultra-c" element. A good measure of that is how she scores comparatively to Sasha when neither do 3As in the SP. Both have pretty much the same SP - Daria does a 2A, 3Lz//3F+3T and Sasha does a 2A,3F//3Lz+3T. Daria has come ahead of Sasha in both times they're competed with Sasha doesn't try her 3A and both are clean everywhere else - both at RusNats (although it's close) and at the Channel 1 Cup. They're calling Sasha's 3F! domestically but they don't call Daria's Lz which arguably is closer to an e.

Also, Kamila, Sasha, and Anna's PCS also went up around 5 points over the course of the season, peaking at RusNats when they were clean. Liza's also went up from about 67 to 73 at Russian Cup.

The point is her's are going up but everyone else is going up too and her's are below their "bad" skates.

 

[Azikin]

Aliona has been incredibly consistent since her first international season. Even this season, despite some URs and doubled jumps, she still didn’t fall even a single time. Daria, on the other hand, has improved her consistency only this season. IMO, we don’t know how things will turn out, but people put too much hope in others, and disregard what Aliona is capable of, and what she’s already demonstrated.

And she still holds the world record, despite the quadsters. All this talk that 3 3A would not be enough is crazy.

 

[Blades of Passion]

Maiia's "quad" toeloop is...not a quad. Nice salchow though. And the rest of the skating? Best not to talk more.

 

[chasingneverland]

Maiia's "quad" toeloop is...not a quad. Nice salchow though. And the rest of the skating? Best not to talk more.

Maiia doesn't have that "it factor" that ALL of Eteri's other girls have, to varying degrees. Aliona in particular has it in spades.

It's not just the quads. That's important to realize. Quads or 3As don't by themselves make you competitive. Partially because everyone and their grandmother is working on them but also because they're hard and therefore won't be completely consistent each outing. So the question is when the quads aren't working (at at some point they might not, in fact, they expect them NOT to work perfectly), what else is there?

 

[melsh]

well let's say Daria and Maiia are 'in the talk' now because Alena wasn't much around this year and domestic judges were generous to them. international judges might have scored them very differently if we imagine them at a senior GP. plus, there's so much attention to Sambo school, anyone who's in that group benefits of a somehow higher status. so speaking of D and M, it's actually more a matter of perception by the fans now that the season has ended. next season will be very different.
To be in contention for the top spots you need 9's in the short program (that's where one can easily get where the wind is blowing) and there's a limited number of skaters that the judges push. not more than 2 skaters in an Olympic season, me think. like it or not, these particular skaters can afford mistakes and still be placed ahead of clean Dariia and Maiia.
it will be interesting to see who will be preferred between Anna and Alena, assuming Kamila is the Chosen one. And whether the Fed will decide for an Eteri sweep at Nats. Plushenko will do his politick maybe through Lakernik but I wonder if it will be enough. I don't see Tarasova supporting him. and Liza won silver at Worlds.

 

[Dawn825]

Maybe what I'm trying to say is I dont think clean Daria should ever be between Liza and Maiia by only one point in either direction. And Aliona got a 77 at last year's Nationals. But I suppose it's fair to assume that if Daria ups her content too, the judges will suddenly find her to be the most beautiful skater ever.

Maiia doesn't have that "it factor" that ALL of Eteri's other girls have, to varying degrees. Aliona in particular has it in spades.

It's actually been really encouraging to see Aliona skate in that show, not that I think Lovely is anything special, but it reminded me of how good she is when she's confident and in shape.