Or S/K need to pull out of FD to preserve his back. D/S could finish 2nd, 3rd or fourth, depending on which countries make it to free dance.
2021-2022 US Women's Figure Skating
- Thread starter Minz
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- Oct 23, 2005
I’m sort of with your thoughts on Alysa doing the free. I posted yesterday about how Karen’s selection to do the short made sense but she’s much riskier in the free where there are 7 jumping passes instead of 3 to worry about calls. Karen does have the PCS advantage but that’s much less evident in a 4 minute free where the program is primarily focused on jumps. Landing them is impressive and often results in higher PCS. Likewise, racking up more than one or two mistakes or evident < can really do a number on your PCS.
Alysa’s free is also a much better program than her short. Her under-rotations on the non ultra Cs are usually no worse than q whereas Karen is prone to < and some even <<. Alysa is also capable of backloading all of her 3-3s which is incredibly rare outside of Russia and can earn higher PCS as well as tech. Being able to do a backloaded 3Lz+3T is a big deal. Lots of focus on how she lost the 3A and quad and not enough on this IMO.
Alysa’s issues have been throwing the 3A all season without success and it’s brought the whole program down. We don’t really know what her scores would be if she just skated her basic layout with backloading that she can do consistently. Would they be higher than Karen/Mariah? Would she have won nationals if she simply went clean with this layout? I sort of….think so.
Perhaps the question is are we conceding the loss to the Japanese woman? If so I think Karen could maintain 3rd over Canada/Georgia/China. If not maybe we put in Alysa, hope they put in Wakaba and she makes mistakes. I’m not sure either of them can beat Kaori though.
My hesitation is we don’t know her condition and there really are so many red flags. Like I said yesterday I have to believe she isn’t in form for them to not consider her at all. I also feel like this situation should probably arise as a result of Nathan doing the free rather than pulling C/B, which is like anxiety-inducing risky to his chances at the individual gold. Ultimately is it worth risking Nathan’s chances or creating an uproar pulling C/B for the slim possibility of Alysa being
able to do something Karen cannot and Kondratyuk making enough mistakes(he seems solid since nationals). Probably not.
So there is too much unknown/at stake otherwise for me to say for sure yes Alysa should be doing the free but you’re not alone in your thoughts. And I’m with you on your frustration and disappointment because I feel like this would be a completely different situation had she been able to compete at nationals healthy, 3A or no 3A.
I’m truly devastated for her and I’m having a hard time shaking it and being able to enjoy these Olympics. Bradie too.
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If S/K pull out of the FD (very unlikely), then the chances of winning gold shoot up dramatically. If things go right in pairs and ladies, the US only has a three point deficit to make up. If Canada and Italy qualify for the free skate, D/S will absolutely be in fourth place in the free, making up all three points, and Vincent can almost surely beat Mark. If it's China and Georgia (the two weaker ice dance nations), then there's a chance that D/S could end up second, ahead of Wang/Liu, so the US only makes up one point. Even if only one point is made up, that makes it a lot easier for Vincent in the free skate since he only needs to be two places higher than Mark.
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- Oct 23, 2005
Seems like we got screwed by Messing’s situation. I think he could have gotten Mark at least once. I don’t think Morisi/Boyang can. I’m not so sure about Vincent beating the Japanese skater. G/P in the free ties their hands more too.
One thing's for certain, both S/K and Eteri are very disappointed that the US has made it this close.
Not that I'm aware of
I've believe Nikita K. has already said they are doing the FD; I think the seventh place finish at Europeans sealed D/S's chances of the team event.
This talk of Alysa doing the FS is a waste of time. Teams can only split two disciplines and the US is opting for dance and men's. The pairs can only be one team and the women's only one skater which is Karen in the short and the long. This is nothing against Alysa and if it were allowed it would make sense to chose her for the FS. We just have to hope that Karen skates her best.
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- Sep 1, 2020
I personally wouldn't use that kind of phrasing to describe Alexa/Brandon. They looked happy and grateful to even be there (after missing Nat'ls due to Brandon's COVID diagnosis). They were raring to go and to do their best, which they did. Surprisingly, the judges scored them fairly, which isn't always the case for U.S. pairs teams, who are too often unfairly dissed and looked down upon.
Alexa/Brandon performed consistent with their potential. They are possible of skating better than they did too.
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- Sep 1, 2020
It's a crapshoot to trust Karen more than Mariah. But I think Karen is beloved by some in U.S. fed, and they tend to show her a lot of favor; e.g. being supported over Ashley Wagner in the sp and fp at U.S. Nat'ls in 2018, and being selected over Ashley for 2018 Olympics, when honestly Karen was not in a good situation with her boots or her confidence. Last season, Karen was selected over Amber Glenn for Worlds, and Karen was even sent to WTT where she bombed. Amber should have at least been given the chance to go to WTT! I think U.S. fed feels that since Karen achieved a 4th place finish at Worlds twice in her career, that she has a chance to do well in the team event, where they likely feel Mariah doesn't have the same track record in big moments. But I don't think Mariah was provided with enough opportunities to gain the experience needed to prove she could do well in big international moments. So there's not enough of a track record to actually make a comparison.
Karen has the chance to be in 3rd, or maybe 4th in the team sp. I doubt that second is possible unless Kaori makes mistakes. If Karen is at least 3rd (with Valieva in first), then the U.S. and Russia would be tied for first going into the free program round.
Karen has the chance to be in 3rd, or maybe 4th in the team sp. I doubt that second is possible unless Kaori makes mistakes. If Karen is at least 3rd (with Valieva in first), then the U.S. and Russia would be tied for first going into the free program round.
Chock / Bates just won the US title over H/D. Their alien FD is a hoot.
Alysa isn't doing the team event. Please, just get over it. She had the crud, which kept her out of Nationals. She missed a lot of practice while in quarantine, and then she had to be sure enough time passed before she left for Beijing that the crud was out of her system. She will arrive in time for the main competition.
The trust is base on previous results and their current condition of the skaters. Before Olympics, we didn’t even know Mariah had Covid after National - while she might not have symptoms and recover quickly, it is still loss training time and unknown factor of how it affect her in her performance.
In Chinese, there is a phrase 天時地利人和, which explain why certain people have more luck (the only word I can think of right now so bared with me) is based on 3 factors: timing, geography and the people. Karen nails all three factors. The timing I have already explained. The geography (how one knows the area before the battle): Karen been to Asia in GP and 4CC than the other two US skaters. The people referred to the audience (which they don’t this year) and judges. It is a known fact that judges usually give karen higher PCS, which give her slight edge. And the fact she is skating to Buttefly Lovers for FS means the audience/judges will be more into the music/skating than other competitors.
As much as others can disagree the selection, it is already been made and we as fans should just look forward to see the performances that all these skaters put so much time and effort into this.
The audience is a grand total of 800 people, not a whole lot and based off the first day of competition the arena comes off as being empty so i don't think crowd reaction/energy will affect scores and the judges aren't all from China or Asia.
Don't have a dog in this fight, but from US Skating's perspective this attitude makes (some) sense to me. Chen is basically the reason the US had 3 Oly spots in 2018, and apparently is also the reason they have 3 spots in 2022. If there is no difference in true consistency between her and Bell, may as well pick the one with the greater odds of pulling through when the chips are down...Chen wins.
In the end, consistency is the strength of neither of these skaters - Bell or Chen - in this case. I think utilizing Alysa Liu would have made more sense from a statistical POV, but if complications (or insert whatever reason here) prevented her from being at her best here, Chen is the "best of the rest" as they say. This is not to say Bell couldn't step up if asked, but if I had to depend on one of them, I'd rather pick the one that has already proven to come through twice (unexpectedly at that).
And even then, let's flip a coin. Who will show up tonight?
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- Sep 1, 2020
Yeah, that's what I was saying too, or maybe I didn't say it explicitly enough. Of course, that's part of the reason. But Karen is also still favored by some members of U.S. fed, in part due to her performances which garnered these spots, but also because she's well-liked for her talents, despite her under-rotations and earlier confidence/ emotional maturity issues.
^^ Exactly.
ETA:
Again, this is a difficult one since Mariah hasn't had the opportunity to be in such positions to prove whether she could pull through or not. The fact that the fed placed a ton of unnecessary pressure on Mariah in 2020 - 21 season in order to compensate for not rewarding her deservedly with a U.S. National championship in 2020 (in favor of so-so questionable landings Liu), IS NOT Mariah's fault. Certainly, Mariah faltering under all that ill-conceived load of pressure at 2021 Nationals hasn't done her any favors. But I give Mariah credit for coming back from that embarrassing and self-defeating moment, again caused by U.S. fed's boneheaded decisions and favoritism over-reactions.
When they should be trying to give every talented skater ample and fair opportunities, they are too busy with head-in-the-sand, blind decision-making. That said, I don't have a big problem with their selecting Karen -- their hands were tied in not also giving Mariah an opportunity in the fp of the team event.
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And the toss comes up tails. it is what it is.
I'm still convinced that Liu would have been the optimal pick here. If she then came up short, then so be it....
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