2021-2022 US Women's Figure Skating

[Amei]

No she didn't. And it wasn't the 3A, it was her other jumps that seemed wonky today, as if she is missing her toe pick, and even very dependable jumps were not getting any air. I know she has been injured, but she lost alot of ground today. Karen, on the other hand, delivered to the best of her abilities, and certainly didn't lose a potential slot. We have yet to see Mariah or Bradie this year, but certainly Lindsay has a chance-over Karen? I don't think so, 'q' jumps or not. Does she have a chance for that 3d slot? Yes. Right now I would say Alysa and Karen are looking good for the Olympic team

I said in the thread for the FS, the triple axel is irrelevant if she doesn't hit everything else; there wasn't a single triple-triple from her today.

 

[halulupu]

I said in the thread for the FS, the triple axel is irrelevant if she doesn't hit everything else; there wasn't a single triple-triple from her today.

What I really don't understand from a strategical point of view, why try a 3a (as second jump?why) in the sp and than not to have the guts to go for it in the fs (believing her she had a wonderful one at the warm ups). But yeah her triples where underwhelming

Training 3a was her only chance to be even a consideration for an olympic spot. So I think this its wise to stick with it, even if she will never land it in (international) competition

 

[apgold]

I thought Karen did pretty well at Finlandia after her underwhelming performance at ACI. 6th in a competitive field such as this with a 200+ score is something to be proud of - clearly the international judges like her and reward her with PCS. I am concerned about her under rotations, though and TSL pointed out that most of Tammy's skaters are having issues with URs this season (see Young You, Clare Seo, etc). She also needs to add the triple triple back into the SP and hopefully clean up her UR issue.

It's clear that Amber is still recovering from her injuries although she did fight through both programs and wound up 10th. If she can get herself together over the next three months and gets her 3A consistent then she has a chance, but right now, my vote is for Karen for the Olympic team in addition to Alysa. Third slot could be Lindsay (if she gets TES minimums) or Bradie (who seems to be getting her jumps back after injury).

We have not seen Mariah since Cranberry, so she's also a wild card at the moment.

 

[lusterfan]

Karen is far from a guarantee for a spot right now, but she's building that body of work that the US fed seems to care about.

Not many US skaters can score over a 200 internationally, and Karen just did that with two non-clean programs in October. She also showed that judges were willing to give her a 70 in PCS (that's a major advantage over newer skaters/skaters with less reputation).

Alysa has been consistent and scoring in the realms of what peak & pushed Bradie scored, even so early in the season. I don't see three other US ladies being able to suddenly beat her and push her off the Olympic team. The most important thing will be making sure she doesn't peak too early and doesn't crumble at Nationals.

Bradie's poor form at 2021 Worlds and recent injury are negatives. We haven't seen her compete yet though, so it's a wild guess as to where she's at. If Bradie can reprise her old scores, she's 100% going no doubt.

Mariah is still a question mark. If she can start putting it together, she should be in the top contenders that the US fed would happily send. She has the reputation, the PCS marks, and good enough jumps when she's on. She just needs to be on and repeat her Hallelujah moment.

Amber's poor outings so far are doing her no favors. The US was already willing to pass over her as a silver national medalist last season. Considering she's also less internationally experienced, she needs to do that much more to put her name in the game. She's not going to get the same PCS as Alysa/Bradie/Mariah/Karen internationally, so she needs to be perfect in her TES to compete. Her consistency issues and popping are huge negatives so far.

Lindsay shouldn't be in the fed's top 3 choices, but she can get there if others falter. Her PCS would suffer the same way Bradie's did in 2018 as a "newbie". However the PCS deficit doesn't matter if she's landing jumps and others aren't. Making the JGPF should give her more momentum though, and maybe she can keep building on it leading into Nationals.

My pick as of today would be Alysa, Bradie, and Karen. It's still so early and we haven't even seen some contenders though.

 

[Amei]

What I really don't understand from a strategical point of view, why try a 3a (as second jump?why) in the sp and than not to have the guts to go for it in the fs (believing her she had a wonderful one at the warm ups). But yeah her triples where underwhelming

Training 3a was her only chance to be even a consideration for an olympic spot. So I think this its wise to stick with it, even if she will never land it in (international) competition

Agree, I don't understand the logic in not trying the triple axel in the FS.

 

[beepboop]

I don't think Amber's performance at Finlandia was due to injury. She looked great in practices and did solid run-throughs, from what I heard. As it has been her entire career, it comes down to competition nerves. Frustrating because she could be so amazing if she could just pull it together when it matters.

 

[lusterfan]

Agree, I don't understand the logic in not trying the triple axel in the FS.

Sometimes skaters don't do it in the FS because of stamina or confidence issues.

It's easier to do it in the SP when you're doing far fewer elements. In the FS, not all skaters can do a 3A and then carry on with the rest of the program.

And it might not be worth it if you're mentally frazzled right at the beginning of the program from a mistake on the 3A (it seemed to really affect Alyona at Finlandia for example). It's one thing if Amber's consistent in the FS on all her triples, but she wasn't so I'm not sure adding a 3A would do her FS any favors.

 

[katymay]

I don't think Amber's performance at Finlandia was due to injury. She looked great in practices and did solid run-throughs, from what I heard. As it has been her entire career, it comes down to competition nerves. Frustrating because she could be so amazing if she could just pull it together when it matters.

And actually, I think Amber's skating skills are every bit as good as Karen's at this point. Her programs are more interesting. And USUALLY she has nice big jumps. Everyone gets horribly nervous, but I do wonder-for those who handle the nerves so well-like Alysa- (And Isabeau as well) what they are doing differently? Amber skated out ready to conquer. Both programs I thought: She is going to nail it. She looks confident. And then from the first jump everything was off.

 

[Jammers]

Karen is far from a guarantee for a spot right now, but she's building that body of work that the US fed seems to care about.

Not many US skaters can score over a 200 internationally, and Karen just did that with two non-clean programs in October. She also showed that judges were willing to give her a 70 in PCS (that's a major advantage over newer skaters/skaters with less reputation).

Alysa has been consistent and scoring in the realms of what peak & pushed Bradie scored, even so early in the season. I don't see three other US ladies being able to suddenly beat her and push her off the Olympic team. The most important thing will be making sure she doesn't peak too early and doesn't crumble at Nationals.

Bradie's poor form at 2021 Worlds and recent injury are negatives. We haven't seen her compete yet though, so it's a wild guess as to where she's at. If Bradie can reprise her old scores, she's 100% going no doubt.

Mariah is still a question mark. If she can start putting it together, she should be in the top contenders that the US fed would happily send. She has the reputation, the PCS marks, and good enough jumps when she's on. She just needs to be on and repeat her Hallelujah moment.

Amber's poor outings so far are doing her no favors. The US was already willing to pass over her as a silver national medalist last season. Considering she's also less internationally experienced, she needs to do that much more to put her name in the game. She's not going to get the same PCS as Alysa/Bradie/Mariah/Karen internationally, so she needs to be perfect in her TES to compete. Her consistency issues and popping are huge negatives so far.

Lindsay shouldn't be in the fed's top 3 choices, but she can get there if others falter. Her PCS would suffer the same way Bradie's did in 2018 as a "newbie". However the PCS deficit doesn't matter if she's landing jumps and others aren't. Making the JGPF should give her more momentum though, and maybe she can keep building on it leading into Nationals.

My pick as of today would be Alysa, Bradie, and Karen. It's still so early and we haven't even seen some contenders though.

Lindsay's situation is different then Bradie back in 2017-18. Bradie was putting up big numbers scoring over 130 points as a unknown in Senior competitions even winning a medal at Skate America. By the time of Nationals with no one stepping up she was a favorite to win but i doubt anyone is thinking Lindsay could win Nationals even with some less then stellar performances from some of the US Ladies.

 

[moonvine]

I agree, yes Karen twice has saved or helped get 3 spots but otherwise her international record is spotty at best and not particularly impressive. Someone like Ashley had the record to fall back on and get on the Olympic team heck even Gracie as early in her career as it was had a better international record back in 2014 to make the Olympic team then Karen has after all these years and was younger and quick frankly had more upside and could actually rotate her jumps. As for Lindsay she's a nice skater with good technique but her personal best wouldn't get her on the podium at Nationals unless all of the veterans bomb.. Just looking at the scores at Nationals usually to get on the podium including the pewter medalist you have to score somewhere in the 130's or higher in the FS and Lindsay hasn't come close so far to that.

I disagree. As far as I’m concerned Karen has earned that spot unless and until she has a meltdown or possibly more than one. Which she didn’t this weekend.

 

[natsulian]

Amber's poor performance at Finlandia was due to competition nerves. Amber has always been a nervous competitor and she relies on consistently strong performances to strengthen her subsequent competitions via confidence building. We witnessed this last season when she managed to hit clean short programs and semi-clean long programs; however, this was because she competed MANY times virtually, in-person, etc. Last season, Amber competed in the International Selection Pool Points Challenge, Skate America, and several club competitions before executing two stunning skates at the US Championships. Amber did not compete at all during this summer, withdrew from Cranberry (her first international event this year), and managed to be healthy enough to perform at Finlandia. For a nervous competitor like Amber, it is all about repetition and ensuring that she improves with each showing.

As for Karen, she's gaining consistency and strength with each showing. Once she manages to lay down clean short and long programs, Karen has a great opportunity to score 210 and upwards. Additionally, Karen's strength lies in her components and the judges, so long as she does not melt down, are willing to score her in the 69 and up range. With components above 70 and technical scores approaching 70, Karen's score ceiling increases drastically.

Thus far, I think it is immensely difficult to say that anyone is a lock for the Olympic Team (even Alysa). The ice is slippery and a single competition can change someone's entire trajectory. In terms of building reputation, I think Alysa, Lindsay, and Karen are doing a wonderful job. As for Mariah and Bradie, we will see them very soon at the Grand Prix.

I for one am ecstatic by the huge influx of talent in our junior division. Never before has the competition been so tough. I think this bodes well for the upcoming years and the US' future in figure skating.

 

[readernick]

Amber's poor performance at Finlandia was due to competition nerves.

This clearly. She was literally steadying herself and holding her stomach before she started skating. I knew before her first movement it wasn't going to be a clean performance.

The issue with her jumps also isn't physical. Her timing was off. This happens to many skaters when they are nervous.

Some people are natural competitors, others aren't. Amber obviously isn't.

 

[MCsAngel2]

I say this as a huge Amber fan, truly.

I believe her difficulties this weekend were due to nerves and not injury. I think her nerves are getting worse, actually. And though I certainly can see her improving over the season and getting more consistent by nationals, I feel USFSA is not going to be inclined to chose her for the Olympic team, due to the the nerves.

 

[Lutzedge]

What I really don't understand from a strategical point of view, why try a 3a (as second jump?why) in the sp and than not to have the guts to go for it in the fs (believing her she had a wonderful one at the warm ups). But yeah her triples where underwhelming

Training 3a was her only chance to be even a consideration for an olympic spot. So I think this its wise to stick with it, even if she will never land it in (international) competition

If she would skate consistently and would rotate, she would probably have a chance to make the Olympics. But she hasn't a lot. But she does have a possibility to make it and is not counted out. She is getting better though. But the US ladies have UR problems anyway.

When it comes to the triple axel, it may be something with confidence. She lands it in practice and in warm-ups (maybe not rotated, but still landed), but she isn't anywhere close to getting it in the competition programs themselves. I hope she lands it in competition someday, but for now, it isn't down yet.

 

[moonvine]

You know, last year I was in Amber's corner when she was passed over after winning the silver medal at Nationals. This outing was not the way for her to make her debut. If she is still injured I think it would have best for her to skip this event. Wishing her the best as the season progresses.

It’s very important for US Fed to pick the skaters to go to Worlds to maximize the number of slots we have. It was even more important this year because it determined not only the Olympics (well, we had to confirm it but that was no problem) but next years Worlds. USFS sent the correct women to Worlds. I actually love Amber but I don’t think she would have come in 4th even if she skated the exact same programs as Karen because the judges aren’t prepared to give Amber the same scores as they are Karen. Do I think that part is fair, no I do not. But it is figure skating. US Fed actually can send who they want to Olympics with no fear of losing spots so in terms of who they send it’s actually less important for them as a Fed (more important to the athletes of course) than it is who they send to Worlds. But I’d rather see a woman go who has been winning or at least placing highly Internationally than one who hasn’t yet skated a Senior International event. But USFS hasn’t and won’t ask my opinion.

 

[skatingiscool]

Amber's poor performance at Finlandia was due to competition nerves. Amber has always been a nervous competitor and she relies on consistently strong performances to strengthen her subsequent competitions via confidence building. We witnessed this last season when she managed to hit clean short programs and semi-clean long programs; however, this was because she competed MANY times virtually, in-person, etc. Last season, Amber competed in the International Selection Pool Points Challenge, Skate America, and several club competitions before executing two stunning skates at the US Championships. Amber did not compete at all during this summer, withdrew from Cranberry (her first international event this year), and managed to be healthy enough to perform at Finlandia. For a nervous competitor like Amber, it is all about repetition and ensuring that she improves with each showing.

As for Karen, she's gaining consistency and strength with each showing. Once she manages to lay down clean short and long programs, Karen has a great opportunity to score 210 and upwards. Additionally, Karen's strength lies in her components and the judges, so long as she does not melt down, are willing to score her in the 69 and up range. With components above 70 and technical scores approaching 70, Karen's score ceiling increases drastically.

Thus far, I think it is immensely difficult to say that anyone is a lock for the Olympic Team (even Alysa). The ice is slippery and a single competition can change someone's entire trajectory. In terms of building reputation, I think Alysa, Lindsay, and Karen are doing a wonderful job. As for Mariah and Bradie, we will see them very soon at the Grand Prix.

I for one am ecstatic by the huge influx of talent in our junior division. Never before has the competition been so tough. I think this bodes well for the upcoming years and the US' future in figure skating.

I disagree with you that Alysa is not a lock. If you look at this document again, you will see Alysa is the only US lady in group 2 this season so far. Karen is in group 3 with her Finlandia performance. (based on BOW this season so far)

https://www.usfigureskating.org/sites/default/files/media-files/2022%20Winter%20Olympic%20Games%20Selection%20Procedures%20FINAL.pdf

Alysa is not officially on Olympics team yet but she is very close. Alysa had already won 3 golds and her body of work is amazing this season so far. How difficult for Alysa to be placed in top 5 at US nationals? It's just unfortunate that she is being assigned to the toughest GP compared to others. As someone mentioned before - "Good grief, it's just October." I'm completely agreed with her, Alysa and Lindsay still have some time to master their 3A. Both Alysa and Isabeau have also mentioned that they will continue to work on Quad in recent interviews. "Scali designed Liu’s free skate to make room for a quad lutz if she can remaster it. "

Karen performance is lovely but her technical content is just not competitive enough. Karen "may" move up from group 3 to group 2. I'm not a crystal ball and fortune teller. IMO, it's just hard to find additional 2 US ladies to be in group 2. Time can tell. Let's hope Bradie is recovered from injury and put out great performance at Skate America. It's very sad for Amber to bomb in competition again. Even Amber is on National podium next year, she may not be selected for Olympics team due to her poor BOW (just like Ross Miner case). Here's just my prediction ( don't be serious about it). US Olympics team: Alysa, Karen, Lindsay (if Bradie is injured)

	Group 1 Highest Priority	Group 2	Group 3	Group 4 Lowest Priority
CRITERIA FOR 2022 US CHAMPIONSHIPS	Placed in the top 3 AND	Placed in the top 5 AND	Placed in the top 3 OR	Placed in the top 5 OR
CRITERIA FOR 2021 INTERNATIONAL SCORES *	Consistently scored equal to Top 3 at 2021 Worlds	Consistently scored equal to Top 5 at 2021 Worlds AND/OR scored once equal to Top 3 at 2021 Worlds	Consistently scored equal to Top 10 at 2021 Worlds AND/OR scored once equal to Top 5 at 2021 Worlds	Scored once equal to Top 10 at 2021 Worlds OR consistently scored equal to Top 15 at 2021 Worlds

 

[katymay]

I said last year that Amber needs to WIN nationals. Then, as I understand it, under ISU rules, she must be selected for the Olympic team. If she nailed the 3A, (and everything else) this would be possible. It isn't as if we have a Valieva in the U.S. who stands to score 30 points over everyone else. Yes, I think Alysa will win, but only because she is unaffected by nerves and seems to go out and hit everything she has. But everything she has isn't as good as what Amber can do if she is 'on'.

 

[Lzbee]

I still need to watch Amber but Karen did great today, I'm so proud of her. The main thing is she didn't pop any jumps because that's worse than falling in terms of points. Who cares about underrotations when you're scoring above 200 anyway (no but please do fix them Karen, you could be scoring so much higher! Please go to a jump specialist, please).

 

[Lutzedge]

Karen skated beautifully today, as usual. But, these q and UR problems are big problems. I am not doubting that she can make the Olympics, she has a great shot to make it. She is one of the most beautiful and artistic female skaters out there, and these rotation issues are going to throw her score off. As I have mentioned before, it might have something to do with her jumping coach.

 

[SnowWhite]

I said last year that Amber needs to WIN nationals. Then, as I understand it, under ISU rules, she must be selected for the Olympic team. If she nailed the 3A, (and everything else) this would be possible. It isn't as if we have a Valieva in the U.S. who stands to score 30 points over everyone else. Yes, I think Alysa will win, but only because she is unaffected by nerves and seems to go out and hit everything she has. But everything she has isn't as good as what Amber can do if she is 'on'.

The ISU has nothing to do with it. As long as skaters are eligible, it's up to the individual federations - in this case the USFSA. Under the US selection criteria, winning isn't a guaranteed spot. It would certainly help her case though. I don't think they'd want to leave the National Champ off when there are 3 spots.